DFS Alerts
Dueling Aces
This is a two-ace slate, with Justin Verlander and James Paxton squaring off in Houston. Verlander has been on another level recently with a 41% K rate over the past month and double digit strikeouts in four of his last six starts. But Paxton is an elite ace in his own right, piling up innings reaching at least seven full innings in 10 of his last 16 starts and carrying a 32% K rate that ranks 5th in the league among qualified starters. If salary is no issue, play Verlander first in all formats, but the drop off is not big enough to warrant this big of a salary gap, so I’m equally as happy with Paxton as my ace tonight.
A 1.9 K-BB% over seven starts
Gio Gonzalez had his best start by peripherals in a while last time out (5 K, 2 BB). He still allowed six runs to the Reds in 3.2 innings. Over his last seven starts, he has an ERA above six with estimators above five to go along with a 1.9 K-BB%. This is the crux of his problem. Over that span, he has a 49 GB%, 13.8 HR/FB and IFFB% with a 28.2 Hard%. The contact has been pretty standard stuff, but those awful peripherals. The Braves (4.4 implied runs) do have some LHBs who are fairly proficient against LHP in the top half of the order, but Gio has shut down same-handed batters since last season (.231 wOBA, 23.4 Hard%). The production is more league average against RHBs (.316 wOBA) in a park that favors right-handed offense a bit more too. Ronald Acuna (133 wRC+, .225 ISO vs LHP) and Ozzie Albies (129 wRC+, .198 ISO) are expensive bats, but still both worth looking at in this spot. Kurt Suzuki (138 wRC+, .241 ISO) is much cheaper at a more difficult position, but has failed to reach base in any of his 13 PAs over the last week (27.3 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Gio Gonzalez, Kurt Suzuki
Top strikeout rate on the early slate along with the lowest aEV may not be who you think
Anibal Sanchez bounced back from a rough start to strike out a season high nine Mets last time out as his rejuvenation continues. His 24.6 K% for the season is tied for the highest on the afternoon slate…yes, the one with Kluber. His 84.3 mph aEV is two mph below Berrios for top mark on the slate as well. The Washington lineup is healthy and difficult to run through (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 5.9 K-BB% last seven days), but for less than $3K, Sanchez is certainly a pitcher worth considering on this six team board. For the Nationals, each of the first seven batters are above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. All except Trea Turner (103 wRC+, .172 ISO) are above a .365 xwOBA against them as well. Bryce Harper (125 wRC+, .266 ISO), Juan Soto (147 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Ryan Zimmerman (101 wRC+, .232 ISO) are all above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year and also above a 185 wRC+ overall in the last seven days. Value is another questions entirely though. Washington bats are quite costly against a quality pitcher.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman A Great Large-Field GPP Option At Shortstop
Shortstop obviously comes with a lot of opportunity cost tonight. And there just quite frankly isn’t much in the way of cheap options at the position. I think a great way to differentiate yourself for large-field GPP’s is to take a shot on a guy like Brandon Crawford. He is priced affordably across the industry and is one of only a few guys who can at least compete with the power of the big names at the position (when factoring in price). Nova’s skills drop off in a big way against lefties, as he has allowed a .368 wOBA and .216 ISO against them since the start of 2017. If Crawford is able to tag one off of him tonight, and none of the other studs at the position go off, you should be able to pass a bunch of those teams with your more expensive hitters at other positions.
Target This Bottom Of The Order Outfielder In A Great Hitting Environment
Targeting bottom of the order hitters on chalky teams is always a great way to differentiate yourself. For instance, if Puig hit in the top half of the order, he’d probably be chalk tonight. That is especially so on FanDuel where he is only $3,500. He is priced way up on DraftKings ($5,300), and that should REALLY keep the ownership down. I know the power hasn’t been there against LHP lately, but it was only 2016 that he put up a .210 ISO in that split. Coors Field will help anyone’s numbers, so I really like using Puig tonight as a way to get a low-owned Dodgers bat.
Will This Shortstop Be Low Owned Tonight? Let's Hope So...
There are so many good shortstop options tonight with Machado in Coors, Story in Coors, and Bogaerts with a price discount. I hope that means we get ownership spread out because I think Didi is in a great spot tonight. For starters, there is great hitting weather tonight in Yankee Stadium; it is hot and there is wind blowing out to right. That means Didi can attack that short porch, which he has done 13 times this season. His opponent, Ariel Jurado, has shown no ability to miss bats and is allowing 45% hard contact in the early stages of his major league career. That bodes very well for Mr. Gregorius tonight.
A Great Leverage Play At Catcher
With James Paxton expected to garner plenty of ownership tonight (and rightfully so), I think Gattis makes for one of the best leverage plays in tournaments on the entire slate. Paxton obviously whiffs his fair share of righties, but the batted ball profile isn’t all that encouraging when it does get put into play (43.6% flyballs, 35% hard contact). It certainly surprised me to see that Paxton has given up 14 dongs to righties this season. Gattis himself has posted a .250 ISO this season against LHP, while only striking out 14.4% of the time. I like his chances of taking Paxton deep at really low ownership.
Clean Up With Value
With Matt Kemp out of the lineup tonight, I’ll turn to the Cubs for some value bats. I also like Tim Beckham as a multi-position salary saver, but with David Bote hitting cleanup for the Cubs, he is my preferred option. We’re still looking at a small sample size, but Bote has a 43% hard hit rate since being clled up after hitting 13 HR in 61 games at Triple-A. He is showing patience at the plate, and should have runners on base ahead of him tonight against a low strikeout pitcher and a bad bullpen.
A Hot Corner
I’m adding Moustakas to the Core Plays list for tonight, as an additional piece that keeps finding his way into my lineups. You may not be able to afford both Kershaw and Lindor in the same lineup, so if you end up sacrificing one of those expensive pieces, a mid-range power source like Moustakas is a great building block at a weaker than usual third base position. He has homered in back-to-back games as he continues to smash the ball hard and in the air against right-handed pitching and will continue to benefit from his new home ballpark in Milwaukee.
Sort Of OK
I really do not feel good about this at all, but we just have to have a second pitcher in this price range or lower tonight. Chacin has a lot of issues, but been pretty solid against weaker competition recently. Sandwiched in between two 8-run disasters was a string of six respectable starts and despite last nights onslaught, the Padres are just not a good team against right-handed pitching. I would split up shares of Chacin, Richards and Quintana in this messy mid-range tonight.
Delay possibilities for expensive pitchers
Kevin has updated the forecast for Wednesday night. Delay possibilities exist for some expensive pitchers tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers enjoy updates from Kevin through lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Lineup bump for an affordable bat in a strong spot
The Yankees are the number two team on the board with a 5.4 run line. They are facing the pitcher with the highest xwOBA on the board (.379), along with an 89 mph aEV. Lucas Giolito does actually have a higher strikeout rate (20.8%) than Luis Severino (16.5%) over the last month, but that’s about where the positives end. While he also has a 3.42 ERA over the last month, his SIERA is 1.2 runs higher. Since last season, LHBs have a .351 wOBA against him and the xwOBA is even worse (.393). The Yankees have a LHB in the cleanup spot, but instead of Gregorius, it’s a more affordable Gregory Bird (92 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a -36 wRC+ in 26 PAs over the last week despite a reasonable 23.1 K% and 38.9 Hard%. There are no standout bats in an otherwise high priced top half of the lineup, but Giancarlo Stanton (114 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .245 ISO) have shown the most power against RHP. Giolito has been essentially league average (.312 wOBA, 32.9 Hard%, 45.3 GB%) against RHBs since last year.
Other tagged players: Lucas Giolito, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres Tough debut facing five batters above a 105 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
Brett Kennedy was an 11th round pick in 2015. The 24 year-old righty comes with no prospect hype, but he does have a formidable 15+ K-BB% in 42 starts between AA and AAA since the start of last season. His 52.6 GB% at AAA this season is the highest of his professional career. Though the Brewers do have a 25.1 K% at home and vs RHP, he gets his first start in a tough park against a team that’s added some offense at the trade deadline. At 4.93 implied runs, the Brewers are a top five team tonight. Each of the first six batters in the order are above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Lorenzo Cain (110 wRC+, .100 ISO) is the only one below a .200 ISO. Jesus Aguilar (139 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Eric Thames (132 wRC+, .305 ISO) have dealt out the most punishment.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Lorenzo Cain, Brett Kennedy Sixteen runs in 13.2 innings and another opportunity to tee off in a great park
The Cleveland Indians have a home game. The opposing pitcher is right-handed. That means Francisco Lindor (144 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (133 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (180 wRC+, .355 ISO) are all elite bats tonight with Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .281 ISO) cleaning up. Ramirez now costs nearly as much as an average pitcher and still probably has value. The opposing pitcher is Jake Odorizzi. Cleveland has scored 16 runs in 13.2 innings against him this year.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jake Odorizzi Twenty-eight year old gets his first major league start against the top offense in baseball
Mike Hauschild was the 999th pick in the 2012 draft and gets his first major league start at the age of 28. He did throw six innings of shutout baseball in relief recently, striking out five of 23 Mariners with just one walk, but allowed a 50% hard hit rate in that game with a 0 Soft%. He allowed five HRs in eight innings out of the Texas pen last year and had a marginal 12.7 K-BB% in 19 AAA starts this season. Theoretically, the Red Sox should have their way with him. Their 5.12 implied run is a function of a park downgrade, as Toronto plays much closer to neutral than Fenway. The top four are the obviously the key bats. J.D. Martinez (184 wRC+, ..387 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) almost makes Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (143 wRC+, .201 ISO) look weak in comparison. Mitch Moreland (119 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (116 wRC+, .214) offer more affordable exposure. Even cheaper exposure comes from Jackie Bradley Jr. (85 wRC+, .176 ISO) moved up to the sixth spot.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Mike Hauschild, Jackie Bradley