DFS Alerts

Pair of lefties generally hit this pitcher hard

Julio Teheran has missed bats at a slightly above average rate (21.9 K%) and is reasonably priced against a poor Miami offense (88 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP), which has an implied run line exactly at four. He has also allowed 14 HRs over his last 12 starts with a 12.2 BB%. Teheran also has traditionally struggled with LHBs (.341 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, 37.8 Hard%, 38.6 GB%). The Marlins have just two of those among their first seven batters, but both are well above average hitters against RHP. Derek Dietrich (127 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Bour (135 wRC+, .230 ISO) both crack the $4K mark on DraftKings, but are only $2.5K each on FanDuel. Quality LHBs at affordable cost are generally reasonable plays against Teheran. This being a division matchup, we can see that Dietrich has faced Teheran 33 times according to Statcast with two HRs and two doubles for a .409 wOBA (.404 xwOBA). Bour has one of each extra-base hit (yes, a triple) in 24 PAs with a .552 wOBA, supported by a .561 xwOBA.

Aaron Nola (26 K%, 3.50 SIERA, .263 xwOBA) is in contention for the Cy Young award this year and it’s a major accomplishment that his presence keeps the Red Sox below five implied runs at Fenway, but at 4.85, they’re still fourth best on the board tonight. It’ll be interesting if players decide to avoid this game altogether. Mookie Betts (144 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (182 wRC+, .383 ISO) never project poorly at home. They’re great hitters in a great hitting environment. What’s questionable is the value in paying up for either tonight against a pitcher with a .254 wOBA and xwOBA, 26.8 Hard% and 52.6 GB% against RHBs since the start of last season. If ownership is down, that value goes up in GPPs and that’s something to strongly consider tonight. A 4.85 implied run line is not small. Nola has been only slightly more vulnerable to LHBs (.292 wOBA, .295 xwOBA, 28.6 Hard%, 47.6 GB%). Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) is fine and has been just about as good as Betts against RHP over the last calendar year. Mitch Moreland (124 wRC+, .249 ISO) costs significantly less. Premium subscribers are going to want to check out ownership projections once they’re released later in the day.

Five HRs over the last week and facing a HR prone pitcher in the best park on the board

David Price threw 6.1 shutout innings last time out, has a 26.9 K% over the last month, but that outing was against Detroit after allowing 11 HRs over his previous five starts. His .425 xwOBA over the last month is highest on the board among those with more than one start and he pitches in the worst park on the board. Some may be looking at Price, but the top half of the Philadelphia order may be more interesting. Cesar Hernandez (127 wRC+, .116 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (127 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Carlos Santana (120 wRC+, .214 ISO) have the top three wRC+ marks and the top two ISO marks in the lineup against LHP over the last calendar year. While the two switch hitters carry more affordable price tags, Hoskins has a 247 wRC+ with five HRs over the last week and could have some fun with that left-field wall.

Daily Bullpen Alert:Pair of troubled pens match up in the desert

Tonight’s slate features a lot of quality pitchers and negative run environments. Bullpens, or at least the part of them daily fantasy players are looking for, may not see as much action as usual tonight. The good news/bad news situation is that there are three pens above a five FIP over the last 30 days and all three are active. The bad news is that the Indians (5.62 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%) probably aren’t that bad with recent additions and back Shane Bieber against a Minnesota offense that’s selling offense at the deadline. The Diamondbacks (5.38 FIP, 10.2 K-BB%) and Rangers (5.02 FIP, 9.1 K-BB%) are facing each other in Arizona. Robbie Ray could go either way, but it might be surprising to know that both he and Martin Perez are averaging almost exactly five innings per start this year. This would seem the most obvious bullpen edge for daily fantasy players. In addition, Eric Lauer and Wei-Yin Chen are averaging less than five innings per start, Ervin Santana has made just one start of five innings and both James Paxton and Marco Estrada are returning from injury. The Padres are holding onto a major league 3.00 FIP over the last month despite selling parts. The Mariners have some strength behind Paxton (3.61 FIP, 16.5 K-BB%). The Twins (4.13 FIP, 14.9 K-BB%) have been very mediocre, which shouldn’t scare off Clevleand supporters. Weaknesses in the Miami (4.45 FIP, 7.7 K-BB%) and Toronto (4.50 FIP, 16.8 K-BB%) could encourage players attacking Chen and Estrada, though the latter pen does have a top seven K-BB% over the last 30 days to go along with a 40.2 GB% and 16.5 HR/FB. They get out of the AL East and into a more power suppressing park, but have to face the hottest offense on the board in Oakland. (142 wRC+ last seven days).

A pair of capable lefties worth considering

On a solid pitching slate, they may be over-shadowed by either higher priced pitchers or more dangerous ones with higher strikeout rates in a similar price range, Tyler Anderson and Derek Holland may be two southpaws worth considering tonight. Anderson has pitched into the eighth inning in three of his last five starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts (four earned), all at home. Gone are the ground balls, but he’s missing bats at an above average rate (22.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) and has been an excellent contact manager (27.7% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, as is his .218 xwOBA over the last month). The Cardinals have a dangerous 17.5 HR/FB vs LHP, but it’s an otherwise marginal matchup with a significant park upgrade. Holland has had just two starts over the last four weeks (12.1 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 12 K – 46 BF), while working mostly in relief. While the park helps, the estimators are fine as well and his 24.1 K% is easily a career high, as is his 10.7 SwStr%. Statcast has the slider up from 12% to 23.5% with a .303 xwOBA and 41.4 Whiff% this year. LHBs have a .221 wOBA against and while RHBs are still at .341, they were over .400 last year. He moves from one great park to another one tonight and while the Padres have a bit of thump against LHP (14.8 HR/FB), that comes with an 88 wRC+ and 24.9 K%, along with a board low 62 wRC+ and 22 K-BB% over the last week (despite a 24 HR/FB).

A 30.7 K-BB% over five starts at $10.1K or less

A prominence of the slate on the west coast, in negative run environments, along with a number of capable pitchers leaves 12 of 18 teams currently at 4.25 implied runs or below on Monday, despite only one pitcher reaching a price tag above $10.1K on either site. Discounts can be had on normally premium arms such as Aaron Nola and James Paxton because the former is in an atrocious spot at Fenway (Red Sox 122 wRC+ at home, 18.7 K% vs RHP). The latter is attempting to return from a back injury for the second time. He was a late scratch in his first attempt since facing just five batters on the 12th, his last normal outing over three weeks ago now. If his health can be trusted, his reverse split against a Houston offense down two of their top four bats (64 wRC+ last seven days). Gerrit Cole has struck out 28 of his last 71 batters, allowing three runs over 18 innings. He did record a seventh inning out for just the second time in nine starts last time out and is way more expensive than any other arm on the slate with it’s top strikeout rate (35.3%). He’s in one of those west coast negative run environments, but faces a contact prone Seattle offense (19.9 K% vs RHP). There are actually four pitchers reaching a 30 K% on this slate, including Coel and Paxton. Freddy Peralta had his first two starts with a single digit SwStr% in his last two and has had a hard hit rate at least 40% in each of his last four after not reaching that mark in any of his first four. It’s possible his one pitch trick (90.7 mph thrown 77.1%) is beginning to wear thin. Robbie Ray needs a 30.8 K% to go along with an 11 BB% and 89.8 mph aEV. At $8.3K or less, he seems too cheap for a home start against the Rangers, who lose their DH tonight. The most interesting arm on the slate may belong to Kenta Maeda. Efficient is the best way to describe him, completing seven innings in three of five starts despite not reaching 100 pitches in any of them. He has a 30.7 K-BB% over this span that stretches a little over a month and has always been at least a quality contact manager. While the Brewers have some dangerous bats, they have been an overall average offense at best with a split high 25.1 K% vs RHP in addition to the most negative run environment on the board tonight.

Cheap Leadoff Hitter

We don’t have a lot of value options on DraftKings tonight. With that said, I do think Chase d’Arnaud is a nice value play if he hits leadoff. Since being called up, he’s hitting .278 with a .780 OPS, and he’s been a lot better against lefties than righties in that small sample size as well. Eric Lauer has really struggled against right-handed hitters this season, so I’m attacking the pitcher more than the hitter in this spot. He has allowed a .366 wOBA with a .170 ISO and a 41.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. This isn’t the greatest ballpark to target hitters in, but with the limited options tonight, I still think d’Arnaud is a nice value play.

Sneaky Upside

Stephen Piscotty is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and I particularly love his price on FanDuel tonight. Marco Estrada has a .364 wOBA with a .246 ISO and a 57.8% fly ball rate against right-handed hitters this season. He has a low 18.2% strikeout rate against righties as well. Piscotty has been hitting a lot better since a slow start, as he has a .218 ISO with a .447 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching. In his short career, he’s also shown a lot more power against fly ball pitchers. The RHB has a .485 SLG with a .834 OPS against fly ball pitchers and a .414 SLG with a .767 OSP against groundball pitchers.

Let's Find Some Value

There are so few value bats on DK/FDRFT, that if d’Arnaud hits leadoff tonight against Eric Lauer, he will be an easy fit in cash games. There is nothing magical about the skills of d’Arnaud, he is a below average hitter, but he at least showed some power in the minors this season and has a lot of speed which can help him leg out some hits. This is simply a case of looking for any savings we can get on a night when all the bats are priced up.

We've Got To Play Somebody

I do not like the salary on Albies on DK/FDRFT, but I don’t really like the salary on anybody. I will not use Albies in the same lineups as Gerrit Cole tonight, but in your non-Cole lineups, you’ll be able to spend up on several bats, and second base is a weak position, making Albies a standout option. Wei-Yin Chen has dangerously low strikeouts to right-handed batters and will have to deal with the 40% hard hits and low strikeouts from Albies, who has piled up a .228 ISO and .369 wOBA against lefties this season and has home run power and the switch hitting edge when Miami heads into the bullpen. To be clear, while this is marked as a Core Play, none of these high end bats are must plays tonight and none need to be forced in if it doesn’t work.

Strange Night For Bats

The pricing is really tough on DK/FDRFT tonight for the bats, and there is really not standout must play type of hitter anywhere beyond first base tonight. The outfield is loaded with quality hitters in OK, but not great matchups at high salaries. In choosing between all these guys, I’m going to lean on the splits of Carlos Martinez that say he is just not a good pitcher against left-handed batter. He has low 17.3% strikeouts, high 14.1% walks and neutral batted ball numbers. He’s also coming back from an oblique injury and has been shaky at best since the beginning of June. Blackmon has a .261 ISO and .384 wOBA with strong plate skills from the top of the lineup against right-handed pitching.

So Many Options

There are so many pitching options tonight, that I will have a wider core than usual. If you can’t get up to Gerrit Cole, you can get similar skills at a significant savings with Kenta Maeda. Maeda has a silly 35% strikeout rate with just 5% walks over the past month and even with somewhat limited pitch counts, has been so efficient he has still reached seven innings in three of his last five starts. It’s not a great matchup against a Brewers team with a lot of lefty power, but the Brewers still check in as an average team for strikeouts, and Maeda’s 34% K rate to righties and above average 25% to lefties outweigh the power risk with the way he’s looked recently. This will be a night to spread out at pitcher in GPP’s, and Maeda should be on the list.

Catch A Homer

The catcher position is one of the better places to find good values tonight on DK. Hitting is priced up overall, but you can find power in good matchups in the low-mid tier behind the mask. In 54 PA against lefties this season, Tyler Flowers has a huge 58% hard hit rate and a .263 ISO. That is probably still a lot of sample size fluke, but even last season when he wasn’t hitting the ball with such authority, he had elite plate discipline with more walks than strikeouts which kept him relevant with a .433 OBP against lefties. Wei-Yin Chen has low strikeouts, high walks and no ground ball ability against right-handed batters, giving Flowers on base and power upside.

If Salary Doesn't Matter

We have a loaded pitching slate tonight, and there is very little chance that Cole ends up as the top points per dollar option tonight at this salary. It is going to come down to what you are doing with your bats tonight whether or not to squeeze Cole into your lineups. With his slate leading 35.3% strikeout rate and recent signs of getting back to his early season form, he is certainly the top raw points projected option tonight.

Cole can always be counted on for better than a strikeout per inning and he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start all season. The downside is his control has been a little spotty, leading to most of his starts ending in the six-inning range, thus limiting his upside. He is the best play on this slate for raw points floor and ceiling, so if you can make him fit, yes play him in cash games and tournaments. But don’t expect him to be alone at the top of the charts tonight, so he doesn’t need to be forced in everywhere.

Just Too Cheap

There is clear and obvious danger in a chalky Robbie Ray, and we are certain to see a chalky Robbie Ray tonight. But this salary is just simply too low for his upside. The risk from his walks and hard hits is more than baked into this salary, and even if he has a bad night, he could end up with enough strikeouts to have an acceptable points per dollar outing. His biggest risk is right-handed power, and the Rangers power is mostly left-handed. On top of that, they lose a DH and get a park downgrade with a trip to the desert. Ray’s 30.8% strikeout rate can’t be overlooked at this salary.