DFS Alerts
Hottest offense since the break in the top park with a value bat near the top
Kyle Freeland is not a bad pitcher and has even held LHBs to a .299 wOBA at Coors in his major league career, but he has a few problems. Most obviously, he pitches at Coors. Also, he’s facing the hottest lineup in baseball since the break (151 wRC+). Lastly, the A’s have just one LHBs. While Freeland had impressively limited opponents to two runs or less in six straight starts before allowing four last time out, he has not struck out more than four in any of those seven outings and has not been above a 33 GB% in any of his last three. Three teams (the Yankees, Rockies, and Red Sox) are above the 5.66 implied run line for the A’s, but this is a lineup that should do some damage. Khris Davis (112 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the immediate standout bat with a 231 wRC+ and 72.7 Hard% over the last week, but Matt Chapman (132 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the second cheapest bat on DraftKings ($4.3K) and bats second tonight with a 258 wRC+ since the break. The only RHB in the lineup below a 90 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs LHP is eighth place hitter Jonathan Lucroy (76 wRC+, .084 ISO).
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Kyle Freeland
Lefty masher can't be priced high enough to be a poor value in a great spot
The Rockies take their customary place near the top of the board (5.84 implied runs) at home (16.6 HR/FB), facing a LHP (17.1 HR/FB). The lineup looks a bit different without LeMahieu, but the top half of the lineup is what players are looking at, which should be obvious. RHBs have a wOBA (.317) 57 points higher than LHBs against Sean Manaea since last season and an xwOBA (.352) 71 points higher. Charlie Blackmon (114 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is in a good enough spot, batting leadoff here, that it doesn’t much matter. Ian Desmond (114 wRC+, .252 ISO) bats in front of Nolan Arenado (228 wRC+, .435 ISO) and Trevor Story (144 wRC+, .315 ISO). None of the other bats in the lineup are above an 80 wRC+ against LHP since last season, including tonight’s fifth place hitter Noel Cuevas (51 wRC+, .090 ISO). Arenado simply can not be priced high enough to be a poor value in this spot.
Other tagged players: Sean Manaea, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond Absence offers cheaper exposure to top lineup against highest xwOBA, lowest K% on the board.
Each of the top four implied run lines play in positive run environments tonight. Then there’s the Astros running fifth (5.33 runs) in the most negative run environment in baseball because they are facing Yovani Gallardo (13 K%, 5.40 SIERA, .387 xwOBA). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against him since last year with no split in his xwOBA at .365. Jose Altuve removes a big bat from this lineup, but it also leaves Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and George Springer (101 wRC+, .166 ISO) as the only really expensive ones. No other bat in the lineup is above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. However, Evan Gattis (92 wRC+, .207 ISO) is also the only other bat above a .190 ISO against RHP. This is a competent lineup, but not a juggernaut in a tough park without Altuve and Correa.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Evan Gattis, Yovani Gallardo Highest xwOBA over the last 30 days vs second highest team wRC+ since the break
Ivan Nova has the worst xwOBA on the board over the last month (.391) and the Mets have the second highest team wRC+ (149) since the All-Star break. They have just a 4.14 implied run line, but line up several competent left-handed bats against a pitcher with significant platoon splits (LHBs .360 wOBA since last season). Unfortunate for stackers, the lineup is balanced with Asdrubal Cabrera (124 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Conforto (113 wRC+, .176 ISO) batting third (190 wRC+ since the break), Brandon Nimmo (144 wRC+, .235 ISO) fifth for some odd reason, and the extremely cheap middle infield option Jeff McNiel (160+ wRC+ at both AA and AAA this year) batting seventh.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Ivan Nova Not expected to take a step back despite losing their top bat
Games at Coors and Fenway as well as Yankee Stadium tonight, but despite the absence of Aaron Judge, the Yankees still hold court atop the board with a 6.04 implied run line. They’ll face Brad Keller, who has held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA with a 57 GB%, but the xwOBA extends each side from 35 to 45 points and while he’s completed seven innings in three of his last five starts, he walked nine and was bombed in the other two. There’s also the matter of a terrible bullpen behind Keller. Without Judge, Didi Gregorius (113 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the most expensive DK bat ($4.8K) and Giancarlo Stanton (120 wRC+, .248 ISO) the most expensive FD one ($4.2K). Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .231 ISO) gains value with his climb up the lineup (fifth tonight). Considering limiting exposure to the Yankees in favor of high priced pitching or other opportunities tonight may have some merit considering they are without their top bat and Keller has been quite successful in recent outings, though the potential for a blow up remains.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Brad Keller Large platoon splits, highly positive run environment, but few LH bats
Players can be fairly confident where the top three or four run lines lie when there are games at Coors, Fenway and Yankee Stadium on a given night and tonight is no different. The Red Sox find themselves a close third at 5.79 implied runs against Lance Lynn, who hasn’t been especially HR prone, with just 11 allowed this year, but he still can’t throw strikes (13.8 BB%) and that’s a problem when you’re giving this offense free bases. Low home run pitchers with control issues are the kind players want to stack against, but Lynn also has a substantial platoon split (LHBs .360 wOBA, RHBs .284 wOBA since last season, both backed by xwOBA). This means it’s difficult to find interesting bats beyond the big three of Mookie Betts (139 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (179 wRC+, .387 ISO). It’s going to be difficult to construct that stack without being creative. Rafael Devers (92 wRC+, 191 ISO) could be where players save some salary in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Lance Lynn Lineup with power facing a HR prone pitcher in a very power friendly park
Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 14 HRs over nine starts, 10 of them to LHBs who have a .404 wOBA against him. All four against RHBs have come at home, where they have a .350 wOBA against him this year. Desclafani otherwise has fine peripherals and with a modest 4.64 implied run line, this is probably not a full on stacking situation, but players should certainly be looking at bats with power in this lineup. Everyone in the lineup except Scott Kingery (75) has a 110 wRC+ or better against RHP over the last 365 days. Rhys Hoskins (147 wRC+, .296 ISO) leads the lineup in wRC+ and ISO over that span both by a wide margin. Carlos Santana (119 wRC+, .212 ISO), Odubel Herrera (.198 ISO), Nick Williams (117 wRC+, .216 ISO) and even Maikel Franco (112 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be worth shots. Franco has the second highest ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year and a 205 wRC+ (40.9 Hard%) over the last week.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Maikel Franco Daily Bullpen Alert: Some opportunity to attack bottom bullpens on Friday
With every team in play, every poor bullpen is available to attack. While the Indians are worst on the board with a 5.88 FIP over the last month, they combine that with a 15.5 K-BB% and the addition of two strong arms from San Diego. The Diamondbacks (5.47 FIP, 9.3 K-BB%) are next worst by FIP over the last month, but they have Zack Greinke in San DIego. The Reds (5.12, 10.4%) will start HR prone Anthony DeSclafani against the Phillies. This is a potential target. The next four worst bullpens by FIP all own a K-BB less than 10% over the last month. The Rangers (4.84, 9.4%) send Yovani Gallardo at Houston. The Royals (4.64, 5.1%) start Brad Keller against the Judge-less Yankees in the Bronx. The Marlins (4.60, 7.2%) start a rookie at home against the Nationals. The Mets (4.59, 9.4%) welcome back five inning Jason Vargas from the DL in Pittsburgh. All four of these are attackable spots.
Low cost SP2s and mid-range pitching choices with upside
Beyond the top of the board, there are several useful pitchers in the mid and low price ranges. Luke Weaver walked five Cubs last time out, but is far too cheap (around $6.5K) for a league average pitcher (21.1 K%, 4.39 SIERA, ,334 xwOBA) in the rematch in a favorable park. An even better option to pair with your top priced pitcher on DraftKings is Chase Anderson ($5.5K). The fly ball prone pitcher has a 25.3 K% over his last eight starts and is in the perfect park for his profile in San Francisco in a matchup not without some upside (15.9 K-BB% and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP, a 19.9 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB over the last week). Marcus Stroman has a 3.03 ERA with mid-three estimators and a 63.1 GB% in six starts back from the DL. He’s never managed contact authority well and is below a league average strikeout rate (19%) since returning, but has done enough for a .295 xwOBA over the last month and is in a great spot tonight (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% at home, 18.5 K-BB% vs RHP). Pablo Lopez has struck out 20 of 94 major league batters with 9.1% Barrels/BBE, but just an 85.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV and a 56.9 GB%. The high barrel rate seems like the fluke at this point. He has a league average 13.7 K-BB% in four AAA starts, but a 24.9 K-BB% in eight AA starts this year. He may be worth a shot at a low cost against the Nationals in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Chris Archer has a 34.9 K% since returning from the DL, but nine runs have scored against him 13.2 innings over that span. The upside and risk are both well-known. The Orioles have a 83 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs RHP and a 20.0 K-BB% since trading Machado. Dallas Keuchel has completed seven innings in three of his last four starts and while he still has just a 16.8 K% over that span, he’s been displaying contact dominance in July (52.4 GB%, -10.8 Hard-Soft%). Tonight, he gets the Rangers (83 wRC+, 25.4 K% on the road) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Nick Pivetta is actually fourth best on the board with a 27.9 K%, while there’s nothing to support his elevated BABIP (.341). He’s a risk with upside in a dangerous park (Cincinnati) against an offense that doesn’t give much away (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Luke Weaver, Pablo Lopez, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer, Nick Pivetta The hottest hand or the best matchup?
As opposed to the last couple of nights, Friday’s is a nice pitching board with only 12 of the 30 teams above 4.5 implied runs and 11 below four. Along with top Cy Young candidates in both leagues on the board, there appears to be plenty of options at every price level. Let’s start at the top though. Chris Sale has a 43.1 K% over his last eight starts that’s pushed him to the top strikeout rate in the majors (37.5%) by over two full points. Adding the second best aEV on the board (84.7 mph) gives him a .241 xwOBA that leads the board by 30 points. He’s allowed one run over his last five starts and has completed seven innings 10 times this year. The Twins have an 84 wRC+ and 6.6 HR/FB vs LHP. It’s about as nice a matchup as he can get at Fenway. Max Scherzer has him beat in the matchup department (@ Miami), but has just a 3.55 ERA and 20.9 K% over the last month. That includes four runs with just three strikeouts in seven innings against these Marlins. With 10 days between starts since the All-Star break, he struck out seven Braves over six two-run innings, or basically, what we usually think of as his flaw. A positive is that his 13.2 SwStr% over the last month, while still well below his season rate, is well above the support line for his strikeout rate over this period. While Sale being cheaper on DraftKings and Scherzer being cheaper on FanDuel should play a part in decisions, ownership and umpire assignments should be looked at when available later in the day. These two are very hard to separate, but not far below them is Zack Greinke,w ho struck out 13 Rockies in eight innings last time out (both season highs) and finds himself in another fantastic spot in San Diego (79 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP, 64 wRC+, 19.1 K-BB% since the break) with a park upgrade. He’s top six on the board with a 26.2 K% and 3.32 SIERA. His .285 xwOBA over the last month is fourth best. Carlos Carrasco is fifth best on the board with a 27 K%, but third over the last 30 days (34.3%). The Tigers have a 78 wRC+ against RHP with just an 8.4 HR/FB, but don’t strike out a ton (22.4%). They have a 51 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB over the last week. The other pitcher who exceeds $10K on this board is Clayton Kershaw ($12.8K on DK). He has allowed just nine earned runs (12 total) in six starts since returning from the DL, but with just a 22.9 K% (18.3 K-BB% though), 10.8 SwStr% and 38.7 Hard% with a park downgrade against an offense with a 112 wRC+, 20 K%, and 15.1 HR/FB vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Carlos Carrasco, Clayton Kershaw Solid OBP Skills
Keep an eye on the Angels batting order as Andrelton Simmons would make for a strong value option at SS if he finds himself batting second again against an average southpaw. Simmons doesn’t provide you with a bunch of upside (career .112 ISO, minimal SB threat) but is quietly having a very good year offensively (123 wRC+) and almost never strikes out (4.7 K%). Simmons gives you some solid OBP skills (.363 OBP) for a cheap price tag and can give you a decent floor at an otherwise top-heavy position.
Extreme Splits
While David Freese stands out as the cheap 3B option on FanDuel where he’s only $2,100, I prefer playing Rafael Devers on DraftKings where the two are priced the same ($3,500). Devers is a cheap way to get exposure to a Red Sox offense that a has an implied run total approaching six runs and is also a way to take advantage of Lynn’s extreme platoon splits. Lynn has struggled mightily versus lefties throughout the course of his career as he owns a .346 wOBA, 5.05 xFIP and 12.9 BB% against them. Devers can be used in all formats but a bottom of the order lefties Red Sox stack (Devers, Leon, JBJ) could be interesting in GPPs.
Pirate Value
Pirates hitters stand out, especially on FanDuel, due to the combination of matchup + cheap price tags. Both Harrison and Freese hit a HR on Thursday night and will have the platoon advantage again on Friday night against the well-past-his-prime Jason Vargas. Throw Francisco Cervelli in the mix as he’s min price on FD and satisfies the catcher requirement on DraftKings where he’s $2,900. The Pirates have an implied run total north of five runs and make for good filler options in both cash games and GPPs.
Other tagged players: Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli Roster Construction
Stroman is coming off a strong 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 SO performance against the O’s and gets another posh matchup against the whiff-heavy White Sox who own the third highest strikeout rate in the league (25.3 K%) against right handed pitching. Stro has shown flashes of his 2017 self since coming off the DL and is a strong SP2 option to pair with Sale. Perhaps the biggest question in terms of lineup construction on multi-SP sites will be if you’re able to get up to Stroman’s salary or if you’ll have to settle with a $5K option. My current lean is to roster Anderson/DeSclafani at SP2 but I would love to get up to Stroman if enough hitting value opens up.
Fade Regression
On one hand Chase Anderson is a prime regression candidate – he owns a 3.81 ERA, 4.73 SIERA, .238 BABIP, and 80.4 LOB%. On the other hand he’s cheap ($5,500 on DK), has been consistent (double digit DK pts in six straight), and gets a good matchup against the Giants (23.8 K%, 95 wRC+) at pitcher friendly AT&T. If you want to squeeze in bats alongside Chris Sale at SP1, you’ll need a cheap SP2 and DeSclafani is Anderson’s biggest competition in this price range. Neither option is great but Anderson provides you with the higher floor.