DFS Alerts
Get In Play Here
The Oakland bats heading into Coors Field are fairly priced on FanDuel tonight, where you should be able to get a couple of them into your cash games, and have a clear path to a GPP stack. The best combination of lineup spot, contact and hard hit ability is Jed Lowrie with his 46% HH, 25% line drives and 80% contact rate against left-handed pitching. On DK/FRDFT, the Oakland bats are less of a priority in cash games at their salaries, but still affordable on any non-Sale lineups.
An Overlooked High End Offense
With Coors Field, the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros all in good matchups, it may be easy to overlook some other great situations tonight. The Blue Jays going into Chicago to face Reynaldo Lopez and a bad bullpen are one of those great spots to keep an eye on. We should get Curtis Granderson at the top of the lineup with his 42% hard hits and 30% line drives against the terribly low 14.7% strikeouts of Lopez. BABIP regression has started to hit Lopez, but he still has a long way to fall.
I'll Take It For Free
There is just so much to spend up on tonight, it’s impossible to overlook this type of value. David Fletcher has carried his elite contact skills over to the majors, and if he’s at the top of the lineup, facing an average pitcher, there is just no good reason not to play him in your non-Arenado lineups.
Middle Of The Order Value
Outside of Coors Field tonight, we have a couple other prime spots for offense in the AL East. Between the Yankees and Red Sox, we are likely to see a lot of crooked numbers on the board tonight. Lance Lynn has had all kinds of trouble finding the strike zone and with more walks than strikeouts to left-handed batters, Moreland has both on base upside and the likelihood of seeing runners on base ahead of him. If the bases are full, he’ll have to see a pitch to hit, where he has the fly ball ability to offset Lynn’s ground balls, and if he doesn’t get a pitch to hit, he’ll just walk to first and being in position to score runs. He is by far the cheapest bat of the top five Red Sox and the easiest way to get exposure to a high end offense tonight.
Moving up in the Order
The Yankees’ stack didn’t quite work out as we had hoped and they lost Aaron Judge in the process. Well, I’m sure they know where he is, but they will be without him for at least three weeks, as he suffered a chip fracture in his right wrist. Luckily, they have one of the deepest offenses in baseball, so they should be able to hold the fort down while he’s out. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against Brad Keller, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. With the short porch in right field, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird all stand out as elite plays. Given the fact that the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, a full Yankees’ stack should be on your radar in tournaments. Hicks is more than affordable tonight and could end up batting third with Judge out.
The Top Bat
It is basically an either/or kind of night. Either you spend up for Chris Sale or you spend up for Coors Field bats. In cash games, I would start with Sale, but if you find yourself with the salary to be able to afford a top hitter, look no further than Nolan Arenado. Sean Manaea is a guy who throws a ton of strikes, and lets them get hit hard. His BABIP has survived that so far this season, but Coors Field is not the place to hope for a friendly BABIP on hard hits. Arenado has outlandish skills against left-handed pitching with more walks than strikeouts, a 48% hard hit rate, .427 ISO and .541 wOBA. There is no reason to overthink Arenado at home against a lefty.
No Reason to Fade the Top Pitcher in Baseball
Sale is my favorite pitching option on the board and it’s not particularly close. That says a lot given the fact that Max Scherzer is facing the Marlins. Sale has been on a tier of his own this season, posting a 2.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. While those numbers are truly impressive, the fact that he has a 29% soft contact rate with how hard he throws the ball is incredible. Tonight he gets to face a Twins’ offense that has struggled against southpaws all season. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .284 with a strikeout rate of 20% against lefties.
Great Matchup for this High Strikeout Pitcher
Archer has been a candidate for positive regression all season. He’s been a bit unlucky with his BABIP (.347) and HR/FB rate (12.5%), both of which are well above the major league average. While he does allow a lot of hard contact, he’s still had good control and a high swinging strike rate. I’m willing to buy in on his talent the rest of the way, especially in matchups like this one. The Orioles not only have a right-handed heavy projected lineup, but it has an average k-rate of 27% against right-handed pitching. If you glance at the table above, you can see that Archer has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.
If You Need To Go Cheap
If at all possible, I want to pay up for two pitchers tonight on DK/FDRFT. But when you get into trying to stack Coors Field or the Yankees or Red Sox, salary becomes tight. Chase Anderson is basically an average pitcher with 19.6% strikeouts and 9.5% walks, but he’s improved a bit recently with 22.2% K and 7.4% BB over the past month. He has at least 11 DK/FDRFT points in six straight starts, with upside for 20 in this ballpark against a team without the power to attack his main weakness. I do not love the idea of going cheap on an ace-filled slate, but Anderson would be the most logical option if you need to do it.
Aces Are Everywhere
If you can’t get up to Chris Sale tonight, there is plenty to like at a few bucks cheaper. Zack Greinke is next on my list tonight with a trip to San Diego to face a Padres team that ranks near the bottom of the league in every offensive category against right-handed pitching. Greinke’s only issue this season has been hard contact, but he’s worked his way around it with elite control and a solid 26.2% strikeout rate. He even reminded us there is more upside available here when he struck out 13 Rockies in his last start. That type of upside is the outlier, and I’m not looking for a repeat, but this is a matchup where Greinke can pile up innings and easy outs at a fair salary on all sites.
A Top Stack in a Great Spot
The Astros are in a great spot tonight and can be considered as potentially the top offense on the board. They face a struggling veteran in Yovani Gallardo, who has not had much success at the MLB level for several seasons now. Alex Bregman has been tearing the cover off the ball lately and is the top nightly bat from this squad. He owns an OPS well over 1.000 since the first of June to go along with 16 home runs in that span. Evan Gattis adds value on sites where you need a catcher. If you need value, I don’t even hate the idea of targeting a Josh Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez type. This whole offense is in play tonight.
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Yulieski Gurriel, Josh Reddick
Clearly The Best
This slate is so loaded that you do not have to pay all the way up to Chris Sale, but let’s not pretend as if he’s not clearly the best option. He has no fewer than nine strikeouts in any of his last eight starts, and in 54 innings in those eight starts, he has allowed a total of just five runs. He has the highest strikeout rate not just on this slate, but of all starters in the league. He also gets a favorable matchup against a Twins team with a putrid .111 ISO and .283 wOBA from tonights projected lineups. It’s as simple as play him if you can afford him.
An Intriguing Budget-Friendly Stack
It’s no secret that we will need to find some value tonight, as there are high-end pitchers that we want to pay for. While I don’t love picking on Reynaldo Lopez, I also don’t have a problem picking on Reynaldo Lopez when the price is right. His 10% walk rate is too high, his SIERA and xFIP are both well over 5.00, and we also know how bad the White Sox bullpen can be at times. Toronto’s bats come at affordable prices, too, as guys like Solarte and Gurriel are more than affordable and hit in the middle of the order. Gurriel has been hitting second of late and will likely continue to hit there as the team gets a look at their younger players. Justin Smoak has the best profile of the bunch and can absolutely be included in a GPP stack if you have the salary to fit him in there.
Other tagged players: Lourdes Gurriel, Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak The Best Mid-Range Pitching Option
On one hand, it won’t surprise me if Archer carries very high ownership tonight. He is trying to enhance his trade value and is coming off a game where he recorded 13 of his 18 outs via the strikeout. He’s also facing an Orioles team that simply has nothing to fear in their lineup with Manny Machado now in Los Angeles. On the other hand, it’s possible that Archer gets overlooked a bit with the presence of Sale, Scherzer, and Kershaw all pitching tonight. Keep an eye on our ownership projections throughout the day, and I love Archer if it seems like he is going to be under-owned. The upside is clearly there, and the matchup enhances that potential.
The Best Upside on a Slate Full of Aces
After a couple of ugly MLB slates over the past few nights, we have one which of course has about seven or eight bona fide aces on the mound. It’s hard to choose among all of them, but I will side with Scherzer as my top arm in GPP formats. Chris Sale is likely the safer bet at this point given his ridiculous recent run of success, but he will also be the higher owned pitcher, especially since Scherzer hasn’t been in the best of form this month. However, I look for that to turn around in a big way against the Marlins, who don’t offer much in the way of offensive punch. Despite his recent struggles, Scherzer still owns a 34% strikeout rate and 2.77 SIERA for the season. Take advantage of other people possibly shying away due to his recent form, as this is a great spot for a bounce-back in a big way.