DFS Alerts
Weather is not of great concern on Thursday night
David is in for Kevin tonight and his Thursday forecast is very optimistic with little overall concern. Players can find the entire updated report on the Weather page.
Lots of ground balls and some strikeouts, but a terrible park and some platoon issues
Trevor Cahill (24.3 K%, 3.49 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is one of the higher upside pitchers on the board. Texas poses a problem, but players should keep in mind his 58.5 GB%. He’s been above 55% to batters from either side of the plate since last season, though LHBs do have a .348 wOBA against him as opposed to .305 for RHBs over that span. Adrian Beltre (104 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still too cheap in this spot (around $3K on either site). Elvis Andrus (97 wRC+, .136 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings with a nice lineup spot. Focus should be on LHBs for upside: Shin-soo Choo (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Rougned Odor (80 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP and 207 wRC+, 63.2 Hard% last seven days), and Joey Gallo (111 wRC+, .288 ISO). Cahill is the most expensive pitcher on the board on DraftKings ($9.9K), but considering the state of pitching on this slate and the strikeout upside in this lineup, he may be worth some exposure for $7.4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus Cheap leadoff bat for the top projected offense
The implied run line for the A’s in Texas tonight has reached six runs on the nose. Bartolo Colon has a 13.7 K% and 89 mph aEV that results in a .366 xwOBA this year. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are within a .350 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA range against him. Nick Martini is $3K or less, has a 285 wRC+ over the last week (11 PAs) and is leading off. He has just 29 total major league PAs and a 130 wRC+ at AAA this season. That’s all the necessary knowledge to make him, perhaps, the top value play tonight. Jed Lowrie (142 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Khris Davis (141 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Matt Olson (148 wRC+, .327 ISO) are all tremendous plays tonight, but should be well represented. Each of the first eight batters in the lineup are above a 130 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Bartolo Colon Fifteen HRs allowed to RHBs this year and in a terrible spot tonight
Jakob Junis (21.4 K%, 4.13 SIERA, .348 xwOBA) is not a terrible pitcher, but a 40.3 GB% and a board worst 10.6% Barrels/BBE is a problem in any park. It’s led to 24 HRs this year. Tonight, he has a Yankee Stadium problem. At 5.88 implied runs, only one other offense matches the Yankees tonight. Unfortunately for Junis, batters from either side are within a .340-.345 wOBA range against him this year and even more unfortunately, RHBs have 15 of his 24 HRs allowed. As you might imagine, Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has already taken him deep in 6 career PAs. Otherwise, the two through seven hitters are all above a 95 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. The large majority of the lineup has the ability to take him deep. Bargains may be difficult to find, but it’s difficult to argue with Judge is certainly worth paying up for here.
Other tagged players: Jakob Junis Daniel Murphy scratched Thursday; Wilmer Difo replaces
Murphy has been scratched from the Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilmer Difo, who will play second base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Mark Reynolds and Matt Wieters up one batting position to sixth and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Nationals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Dan Straily on the road this evening.
As reported by: Dan Kolko via Twitter
One of the best pitchers on the slate in one of the worst spots
Kyle Gibson (23.6 K%, 4.11 FIP, .323 xwOBA) is actually one of the top pitchers on the board, but daily fantasy players know better than to mess with the Red Sox (118 wRC+ vs RHP) at Fenway (124 wRC+ at home). It’s a credit to Gibson that the Red Sox are just third on the board with a 5.48 implied run line. Using last year’s numbers in combination with this year, batters from either side are within five points of a .330 wOBA against Gibson with RHBs having a 53.4 GB% that’s 10 points higher. The ground ball aspect of it remains this season, but in just 2018, batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him. Regardless, Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (181 wRC+, .394 ISO) are top bats at home. Projected ownership should play a part in decisions on them for GPPs. Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .213 ISO) is now in their territory against RHP. While he’s also in their price range on DraftKings, he’s still nearly $1K less on FanDuel. Steve Pearce (110 wRC+, .189 ISO) offers more affordable exposure to the heart of this lineup.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, Kyle Gibson Heavy curveball usage results in reverse split
Rich Hill is probably not the pitcher to attack tonight, but he does have a reverse split (LHBs .346 wOBA), often a characteristic of heavy curveball usage. The Braves have a couple of LHBs who have been extremely proficient against LHP. Check projected ownership rates on Freddie Freeman (162 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Nick Markakis (136 wRC+, .196 ISO), which will both probably be low.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Rich Hill Nine HRs allowed to LHBs at home this season
The Phillies are merely in the middle of the board with 4.53 implied runs, but there is some upside in these bats in a power boosting park against a pitcher who has allowed 20 HRs in 19 starts. LHBs have 14 of those HRs with a .404 wOBA against Tyler Mahle, nine of them in Cincinnati, where he’s allowed 14 as well. Every batter in the Phillies’ lineup is above a 110 wRC+ against RHP since last season except for Scott Kingery. Only Kingery and Cesar Hernandez are below a .180 ISO. Rhys Hoskins (144 wRC+, .284 ISO), Odubel Herrera (117 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Carlos Santana (120 wRC+, .204 ISO) are the best bets to do some damage here.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Tyler Mahle, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kingery Another pitcher making their first major league start against the Reds this week
Twenty-two year old Ranger Suarez is not a major prospect for the Phillies. His Fangraphs player page features a mere 40 FV grade without a currently above average offering. He has a 12.5 K-BB% in three AAA starts after an 11.4 K-BB% in 12 AA starts this season. His debut will come in a difficult park in Cincinnati, but the Phillies probably noticed how easily pitchers making their first major league start have nearly no-hit the Reds this week. The lefty will will have to watch out for Eugenio Suarez (180 wRC+, .284 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), while Adam Duvall (108 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (109 wRC+, .182 ISO) have some pop as well. Joey Votto (121 wRC+, .125 ISO, .390 xwOBA) just gets on base. Once again Vegas is siding with the Reds against a rookie arm (4.97 implied runs) and one of these days, they’ll eventually be right.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Adam Dunn, Ranger Suarez Daily Bullpen Alert: Most available pens should get in some work tonight
Only one pitcher on the board is averaging six innings per start and Kyle Gibson is at Fenway. Bartolo Colon averages the second most innings per start and he’s at home against the A’s. Every bullpen on the board has a chance to get some work in. The three worst bullpens by FIP are off the board tonight, but the next four are all in play. The Rangers (4.76 FIP, 9.7 K-BB%), Royals (4.67 FIP, 4.8 K-BB%), Reds (4.64 FIP, 9.6 K-BB%) and Mets (4.61 FIP, 9.1 K-BB%) are all available to attack tonight with the highest two FIPs over the last 30 days in terrible spots in Texas and against the Yankees. The Marlins (4.41 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) are the only other single digit K-BB% bullpen over the last 30 days. The Yankees have a league leading 2.94 FIP over the last 30 days (22.2 K-BB%) and players probably know not to attack them with Kansas City bats, but perhaps less well known has been the prowess of the pens for the Pirates (3.16 FIP, 18.0 K-BB%) and A’s (3.29 FIP, 16.2 K-BB%) recently.
Pitching choices may come down to run environments on a tough slate
There are no…pitchers above $10K on either site, 25% strikeout rates, or offenses below 3.6 implied runs tonight. Tonight’s pitching options are difficult at best. The top five strikeout rates on the board are Rich Hill (25.8%), Trevor Cahill (24.3%), Anibal Sanchez (24.2%), Kyle Gibson (23.6%) and Nick Kingham (22.7%). Hill has workload issues and is facing the Braves (116 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs LHP), but should probably still be considered for $9K on this slate. Cahill is facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, but does so in Texas. Sanchez gets the Dodgers (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Gibson has the Red Sox at Fenway and Kingham hosts the Mets (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP). He’s gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing seven HRs over that span though. Never the less, he may be an answer as the second most expensive pitcher on either site. The other thing to consider is that there are just two extremely negative run environments on the board in Miami and San Francisco. The first pits Tommy Milone against Dan Straily. Straily has just a 17 K% over the last month, but has gone at least six innings in five straight and has a .273 xwOBA over the last 30 days that’s 100 points below his season average. The Washington lineup is dangerous, but he gets to face them in a power suppressing park for $7K or less. Milone is interesting because of a 19.9 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts this year, but he has just a 10.8% mark over 736 major league innings and has never reached a 20 K% in any season. He’s not available on FanDuel. San Francisco looks like the destination for daily fantasy pitching tonight. Derek Rodriguez (18.9 K%, 4.25 SIERA, .306 xwOBA). He’s completed six innings in six of eight starts and the Brewers should supply some upside (25.3 K%), while their power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) should be tempered by the park. Wade Miley (14.7 K%, 5.55 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is much less exciting, but doesn’t allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (56.9%).
Other tagged players: Wade Miley, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, Rich Hill, Trevor Cahill, Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Gibson, Nick Kingham Welcome to Miami and Bienvenido a Miami
The Nationals have let me down more often than not this season, but once again, what does it hurt to go back to the well one more time? Maybe there will be water in it this time. Even though this isn’t a great ballpark for hitters, Dan Straily is the perfect type of pitcher to stack against. He has a high walk rate, a high fly-ball rate, and he gives up a lot of hard contact. This leads to a lot of runners on base and a lot of extra-base hits for the opposing offense. I’m a big fan of the one-through-five stack here, as Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Adams all have an xwOBA of at least .350 against right-handed pitching this season.
Keep Firing Those A's Stacks
The A’s will look to add to their already impressive tally of runs scored in this series. They not only have the best hitting conditions of the slate, but arguably the best matchup as well. Bartolo Colon likes to work the corners of the plate, so keep an eye on the umpire for this game. If he has a narrow strike zone, the A’s should be able to tee off against Colon, who has allowed a .360+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season.
Talented Pitcher in a Favorable Ballpark
Kingham has pitched well in his first ten major league starts. He owns a 3.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 6%. There have been a couple of poor outings mixed in, but that’s to be expected from a rookie pitcher. I don’t want to rely too heavily on home/road splits, but he has averaged 22 fantasy points (DK scoring) at home and only 11 fantasy points on the road. He’s affordable across the industry and draws an exploitable matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Trusting an Elite Matchup over Bad Splits at Home
Gray is a pitcher that I target more often than most. If you are a regular reader of the Grind Down, then you know that I’m infatuated with pitchers that have above-average ground ball and strikeout rates. Gray’s k-rate is down a little bit as a whole, but it has been trending upward over the last month of play. He’s cheap across the industry and he gets to face a Royals’ offense that has a higher strikeout rate against righties than most DFS players think. The only downside is that Gray has been terrible in this ballpark. In nine starts, he has an ERA close to 8.00 while only averaging seven fantasy points. He’s still one of the top pitchers on the board, but his splits at home keep me from hitting the lock button.