DFS Alerts

Low Owned Value Play

With the limited pitching options on this slate, I could see Tyler Mahle getting some nice ownership tonight. He’s been really good against righties, but he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters this season. He has a .409 wOBA with a .279 ISO and a 48.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters.

With Mahle being looked at, I would guess the Phillies would be pretty low owned tonight. I like Williams, Santana, and Herrera tonight as a tournament stack. Williams in particular is a nice value option tonight and continues to hit right-handed pitching well. He has a .214 ISO with a .344 wOBA and a .467 CXwOBA against righties this season.

Check The Lineup

Martini is going to be one of the top value plays on the slate tonight if he hits leadoff against Colon. Oakland is my top stack on the slate, and if you’re able to get the leadoff hitter as a value option, it makes the stack a lot easier to fit. Colon has a 12.8% strikeout rate against lefties this season, and he’s allowing 40% hard contact to lefties. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact to both sides of the plate this season. Martini has been solid in a small sample size and should have no problem with Colon tonight.

Power Hunting

Outside of the heat of Texas, the Yankees are the other prime offense to target tonight with a power-loaded lineup facing a pitcher who allows home runs at the highest rate of any pitcher in the league. Even with half his starts in a friendly home ballpark, Jake Junis has a 2.04 HR/9 that is the highest mark of any starter in baseball. He has allowed a little more power to righties, but the closest thing he has to a plus skill is strikeouts to righties, so I’ll put Didi Gregorius with his low strikeouts just ahead of Aaron Judge on the list tonight, but I love them both. Junis is striking out just 18.3% of lefties while allowing 38% hard htis and 47% fly balls and Gregorius will look to take advantage of the skills and the ballpark with his .243 ISO, 47% fly balls and low 12.8% strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

My Favorite Value Play

Ranger Suarez has only three starts above AA in his career. He’s shown little strikeout ability in the minors, but he’s been able to generate a lot of ground balls. With that said, I don’t expect much from him tonight against the Reds. Adam Duvall has a .217 ISO with a .350 wOBA and a .445 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting 52.5% of his balls over 95mph, and he has a 53.8% hard-hit rate this season.

Overall, Duvall’s numbers are down this season, but he does have a .255 BABIP, so I’ll keep playing him against lefties. He’s a massive fly ball hitter and should benefit from a pitcher that gets a lot of groundballs.

Last Start Before Heading To The Bullpen

There’s a good chance that Johnson only throws 70-85 pitches tonight, and his upside is limited if that happens. This will be his last start before moving to the bullpen, and with the PPD game last night, this bullpen comes into this game pretty fresh. With that said, we don’t have a lot of pitching options tonight, and I really like this matchup for Johnson. The Twins are ranked 21st in wOBA against lefties, but this projected starting lineup is ranked 29th. The projected starters have a .113 ISO with a .285 wOBA and a 20.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Johnson isn’t going to overpower anyone or strike out a lot of guys, but he induces a lot of soft contact, and doesn’t give up a lot of power to either side of the plate. If he’s pitching well and they let him keep going, he could throw six to seven clean innings tonight.

Good Matchup On Paper

When looking at this slate, we don’t have a lot of options at pitcher, and Sonny Gray isn’t going to break the bank while playing him. The projected starters for the Royals have a .146 ISO with a .302 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. What people don’t realize is how much this team is striking out since calling up some of the younger players. They now have five starters with strikeout rates over 20%.

Gray is anything but perfect and he continues to allow a lot of hard contact, which is one concern when playing him tonight in this ballpark. He does have a 48.3% ground ball rate and a 21.2% strikeout rate this season. Another stat that’s interesting is his 162.5 average hit distance. There’s nothing safe on this slate, but Gray sets up as a usable option tonight.

Home Runs Are Good

Matt Olson hits the ball hard and he hits the ball in the air with a 51% hard hit rate and 49% fly balls against right-handed pitching leading to a .262 ISO. His only blemish is strikeouts, and those are just not much of a concern against Bartolo Colon and his 12.8% K rate to lefties. A guy with no strikeout ability and no ability to limit hard contact pitching in this environment is at obvious risk for power. Load up the A’s tonight in all formats.

Right Back Into The Heat

We have a fourth straight night with the Oakland-Texas game topping the list for bats, and this time it’s Oakland leading the way against Bartolo Colon. Colon has been more attackable with lefties that past few seasons, and this year he’s sitting with just a 12.8% strikeout rate along with 40% hard hits allowed to left-handed batters. Jed Lowrie is a prime cash game play in the middle of this lineup with his .234 ISO and .382 wOBA against righties and has the switch hitting bonus when Texas heads into the bullpen.

You Have To Play Somebody

Nick Kingham has shown wide splits this season, so the Mets lineup will play into how highly to rate him, but on this slate, there’s just not much else to look at. Simply getting a pitcher who throws strikes in a good ballpark may well be enough tonight. Kingham has a big 28.5% strikeout rate to right-handed batters, and should see at least a couple high strikeout righties. Against lefties, his strikeouts are down, but so is his hard contact, so if he can just get past the limited power of a couple bats up top, another quality start is well within reach here.

You Can Play Him, I Guess

This is one of the worst pitching slates you will ever see. There is not a single pitcher who would qualify as a cash game play on a normal slate, but we have to play somebody. Sonny Gray has brought his strikeouts back up to a reasonable level, and on this slate, just average strikeouts will be enough. I will always be concerned about him in this ballpark, but there’s not a lot of power to be scared of with the Royals outside of Moustakas and Duda. Their active roster ranks 26th in ISO against righties and Gray has just enough ground ball ability to hope that he can skate by with limited damage here tonight. I do not recommend going all-in on any pitcher in tournaments tonight, but somebody has to be at the top of the list.

Fire Up The Power Bats

The Yankees have slipped a bit at the plate lately, but it’s not like they are playing awful baseball; it’s simply a testament to how high expectations are for their bats on a nightly basis. Things should get rolling tonight against Junis, who has allowed the most home runs in baseball this season (though he would be second to Dylan Bundy if last night’s game in Baltimore hadn’t gotten washed away after Boston hit three home runs). In any case, this is a mouth-watering matchup for the New York power hitters. Stanton and Judge are obvious targets, while Gleyber Torres is back from injury and makes for a fine option as well. Didi Gregorius is an elite GPP play at shortstop with his boom/bust nature, and this could be a golden night for a Yankees stack.

A Sneaky Stack of Lefties

The Rays are by no means a sexy team to stack for DFS purposes, but they do get the benefit of a park upgrade and a matchup against Alex Cobb this evening. While Cobb isn’t as bad as his 6+ surface ERA shows, he’s still by no means great. As for his splits, the wOBA splits are relatively neutral, but the batted ball profile tells us to fire up the lefties. Cobb’s ground ball rate drops by 16% when a lefty comes to the plate, and the line drive rate goes from 14% against RHBs to 23% against LHBs. Jake Bauers is my favorite power target here, while you can add it the other lefties as part of a GPP stack. The price tags are more favorable on FanDuel, but I like the contrarian nature that they might bring on DK/FDRAFT as well.

Another Hot Day Means Another Great Spot

Arlington has been the top spot for offense the last few nights, and that’s not going to change tonight with hot temperatures and Bartolo Colon taking the mound for the home squad. With this heat wave and Colon’s fly ball tendencies, it’s bombs away for the A’s once again tonight. Khris Davis is locked in right now and is your top play, as he has smacked six home runs in his last four games. Matt Olson and Jed Lowrie also have ISO marks above .230 against RHP, and they make for great additions to your Oakland stacks. Someone is going to park one against Colon, but it’s just a matter of picking out the right power bats.

Not For the Faint of Heart

Tyler Mahle is a promising young arm with a lot of talent, but it’s been a roller coaster for him in 2018. He has mixed flashes of brilliance with massive inconsistency, and that is frustrating for DFS players. However, I like to take chances on him on slates that are thin for pitching, and that’s exactly what we have tonight. His overall numbers are basically league average, but that doesn’t mean he has no upside for our purposes. His game-by-game logs are far from average… they are laced with good starts mixed with some awful ones. The Phillies have some dangerous bats, but they also have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against RHP. This could be a disaster for Mahle, or it could be a ten strikeout game. It’s a risky play, but I like in in GPPs on this slate.

Grasping for Pitching Options

With Stephen Strasburg scratched tonight and back on the disabled list, it’s quite the ugly slate of pitching options. I’ll somewhat hesitantly throw Rich Hill out there as my top GPP option, though I certainly don’t feel great about it. He is coming off a strong outing in which he racked up nine strikeouts in six solid innings against the Brewers, and the blister issues seem to be in the rear view mirror right now. The matchup is tough against the Braves tonight, but Hill’s 26% strikeout rate and 3.90 SIERA give access to the top upside on the slate.