DFS Alerts

Big lineup bump for major bat

While James Shields nearly always gets his six innings in and may be an interesting SP two choice on DraftKings, the Angels are still above five implied runs (5.07) against him in a negative run environment. LHBs have a .334 wOBA and .366 xwOBA that exceeds that of their counterparts by around 20 points against Shields since last year. The big news in this one is a lineup bump for Shohei Ohtani (181 wRC+, .313 ISO) who now looks like a great value for more than $1.5K less than Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) on either site. Kole Calhoun (96 wRC+, .182 ISO) is a value OF bat at the top of the lineup as well.

Half of a four game slate has weather issues

Kevin’s forecast for Wednesday night has been updated and half of the four games being played tonight will be dealing with weather issues. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can get updated reports straight from Kevin on Crunch Time, starting at 6:30 ET.

Run line is dropping for both teams in top park

As if Jon Gray didn’t have enough problems trying to reel in a .376 BABIP this season and as if a Houston offense with a 120 wRC+ on the road needs to be supercharged, but they do get to experience that Coors boost this week. Oddly, the implied run line for the Astros has recently declined one-quarter run to it’s current place at 4.98, dropping them to the fifth spot out of eight teams tonight. A questionable weather report may have something to do with the overall total dropping this afternoon. Jon Gray has great stuff, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA against him at Coors for his career and this year as well. Amazingly, only one batter in the Houston lineup is above a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. The top overall bat in this lineup right now might be Alex Bregman (136 wRC+, .209 ISO), who is also the most expensive. Aside from the small sample size of Kyle Tucker, every bat in the lineup is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Marwin Gonzalez (105 wRC+, .159 ISO) is the cheapest bat by $500 on DraftKings. He and George Springer (103 wRC+, .167 ISO) are the hottest bats int he lineup, each with a 225 wRC+ over the last week.

Glad The Starter Is Out

With Lucroy out of the lineup for Oakland, I really hope people overlook Josh Phegley. Martin Perez has been awful against right-handed hitters this season, as he has a .468 wOBA with a .254 ISO and a 91.5 average exit velocity. Plus, with all the runs in this series, these bullpens have been used a lot. After struggling with lefties last season, Phegley is starting to look like the guy we loved to play against left-handed pitching. He’s crushing lefties this season and sets up as strong catcher play tonight in this massive total game.

It's Really Come To This?

When looking at this four-game main slate, I want to attack the bats, and by doing that, I’m willing to take a shot on James Shields. You never feel good about playing someone like Shields, but with four-games over 8.5 totals, you’re not going to feel great about anyone on this slate. Shields still has trouble with allowing home runs, but the ISO numbers are way down this season because of his changeup. He throws his changeup 23% of the time and has a .069 ISO with a .280 wOBA against it this season. His fastball is his problem, and that’s one of the things that bothers me with this spot.

There’s nothing safe about this, but I’d be really happy if he puts up 15 points on DK and FTD as an SP2 and he’s shown 20+ point upside this season.

Never on the bottom half of the board at home

It’s not very often, if ever, that players can find the Rockies on the bottom half of the board at Coors, but that’s where they find themselves tonight with a run line that’s dropped over a quarter of a run in the last hour to sit at 4.52 currently. They sit above just two other teams tonight. Charlie Morton is a high upside pitcher, but he has been a bit inconsistent this season and has some odd splits since 2017. LHBs (.270) have a wOBA 43 points below RHBs (.313), though xwOBA closes that gap below 10 points and RHBs have a ground ball rate 10 points higher. When the Rockies are at Coors and few players are on them, that may seem like the perfect time to be contrarian without a single batter above $5K on either site. Realize, however, that Morton is backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball as well and while four of the first five bats in the order exceed a .220 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, only Charlie Blackmon (132 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (135 wRC+, .229 ISO) are above a 105 wRC+. Blackmon has a 159 wRC+ at home since last season and can’t be ignored for just $5K (DK) at home ($4K on FD) with the platoon advantage.

Great matchup in a great park and a half run above all other offenses

On a board where six of eight teams are above 4.8 implied runs, the A’s are impressively more than a half run above any other offense at 6.02. That’s because they’ll send eight RHBs against Martin Perez, who has generously allowed a .381 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% to batters from that side since last season. And they will do so in a tremendous hitting environment. It’s difficult to find an Oakland RHB that can be argued against. Among those with more than 30 PAs against LHP since last season (which excludes only the ninth place hitter), Marcus Semien has a lineup low 91 wRC+ to go along with a .169 ISO. No batter in the lineup drops below a .160 ISO. Mark Canha (145 wRC+, .269 ISO) tops the lineup in both marks and he bats eighth. Khris Davis (115 wRC+, .260 ISO) has a team high 220 wRC+ and 76.5 Hard% over the last week. Chad Pinder (135 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Jed Lowrie (117 wRC+, .160 ISO) are moderately priced value bats up top.

One of the top projected offenses has affordable bats at top of the lineup

At 5.48 implied runs, the Rangers are behind only their opponents tonight. While Edwin Jackson has allowed only 10 ERs over five starts with an impressive 85.8 mph aEV, the strikeout rate (18.9%) is below average and incredibly dangerous in this park, along with 8.9% Barrels/BBE and his .198 BABIP is bound to regress significantly. With less than 40% of contact on the ground either way, Jackson has exhibited a reverse split since last season (.364 wOBA to .323) backed up by Statcast xwOBAs less than five points removed to batters from either side. His career numbers only have LHBs eight points abouve RHBs. While Shin-soo Choo (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the clear overall top hitter in this lineup and Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .304 ISO) is the upside guy, Adrian Beltre (100 wRC+, .149 ISO) is a value play, within $300 of $3K on either site. Rougned Odor (84 wRC+, .180 ISO) has a 218 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% since the break and Elvis Andrus (98 wRC+, .138 ISO) is at a 200 wRC+ with a 66.7 K% for less than $4K. Robinson Chirnos (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) bats down in the order, but is certainly a viable catching option on a four game slate.

Twenty-two HRs over 14 starts and just a 12.9 K% over the last month

Dylan Bundy has just a 12.9 K% over the last month and has allowed 22 HRs over his last 14 starts. While RHBs actually have 13 of those HRs, the wOBA split favors LHBs by 34 points over that period, though batters from either side are above .340. The Red Sox have a 5.15 implied run line that’s somehow just middle of the board on a four game slate and Mitch Moreland is out of the lineup. While all bats with power have upside, the top value in the lineup, considering splits, is probably Andrew Benintendi (145 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who is the least expensive of the high priced bats. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .233 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (180 wRC+, .391 ISO) are strong overall bats and GPP plays as well, though may not be where salary dollars are most efficiently spent tonight.

Salary saving may mean having to oppose one of tonight's top pitchers

Players are likely spending a little bit on their pitchers tonight, which means they can’t just pile up on expensive offenses too. While David Price may be one of those arms players are spending on, no Baltimore bat is above $4K on DraftKings and only one is above $3K on FanDuel. Price has been a league average arm against RHBs since last season (.311 wOBA), but with a 35.3 Hard% and 37 GB% that pushes his xwOBA up to .337, offering some opportunity to save salary at the top of this lineup. Tim Beckham costs $3K or less and has been the top bat in the lineup against LHP since last season (127 wRC+, .242 ISO). Nobody else is above a 115 wRC+ or .200 ISO over that span. Jonathan Schoop (107 wRC+, .174 ISO) is the most expensive bat in the lineup, but still only costs $3.8K on DraftKings.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Best pitcher, worst bullpen

With games at Coors and in Texas, along with the Red Sox facing a rocket launcher in Baltimore, bullpens aren’t likely to play a large roll in decision making tonight, but they can still give players an edge. If considering attacking Charlie Morton at Coors, realize that the Houston bullpen has a 3.80 FIP over the last 30 days, but a major league leading 22.0 K-BB%. The Rockies are right above them with a team 3.86 FIP over the same span, but with half the K-BB mark (11.6%). Ironically, tonight’s top pitcher (Tyler Skaggs) is backed by the worst bullpen on the board (Angels 4.64 FIP, 11.1 K-BB% last 30 days). The Orioles (4.24 FIP, 12.1 K-BB%) traded away Zach Britton yesterday. The A’s (3.51 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) improve when Edwin Jackson exits in Texas. The Rangers don’t get much better behind Martin Perez (4.33 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%), who is the only player on the slate averaging fewer than five innings per start. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the mediocrity of the White Sox’ bullpen (4.07 FIP, 11.7 K-BB%) matters least as James Shields nearly always gets his six innings in no matter what.

Pitching options are severely limited and fairly straight forward on a small slate tonight

Just four games on the night slate with six teams currently above 4.75 implied runs and the other two below four runs. That makes pitching really straight forward tonight. Both David Price and Tyler Skaggs are between $9-10.2K on either site and have matchups far better than anyone else. Skaggs has a 24.8 K% that’s only fourth best on the slate, but two of the three pitchers above him are at Coors tonight, the other has a 12.9 K% over the last month and is a home run machine, who must face the Red Sox tonight. Skaggs struck out just one Astro, allowing three runs in his last start, breaking a streak of six straight starts with one earned run or less. He gets the White Sox (18.3 K-BB% on the road, 18.5 K-BB% vs LHP) in at home tonight. Price has been inconsistent at best, but did pitch into the seventh without allowing a run to the Tigers last time out and has a 24 K% on the season. The Orioles have just a 21.5 K% vs LHP, but an 80 wRC+ and 9.2 Hard-Soft% against southpaws as well, numbers that were built with Machado in the lineup this season. Charlie Morton (31.2 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .287 xwOBA) certainly has upside, but he has been inconsistent as well. Coors is not a death blow (80 wRC+, .15.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and he does cost a reasonable $8.8K on DraftKings, but there are weather concerns in this game, as well as in Baltimore for Price. The same can be said of Jon Gray (28.5 K%, 3.20 SIERA, .296 xwOBA), whose 5.44 ERA and .376 BABIP are perplexing. He costs $7.5K against a supercharged Houston offense tonight (120 wRC+ on the road, 111 wRC+ vs RHP). One additional consideration on a small slate might be…(gulp)…James Shields (20.7 K%, 4.41 SIERA over the last 30 days). Don’t expect much against an Angels’ offense with a 109 wRC+ and 20.3 K% vs RHP, but it’s a park upgrade he costs just $6K on DraftKings and he has completed six innings in 15 of his last 17 starts, missing once by a single out.

Continue to Stream Pitchers against this Offense

Price has been trending upward all season. In 20 starts, he owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. His velocity is down a little this season, but that hasn’t hurt his production. He takes his turn against an Orioles’ offense that I will be streaming pitchers against the rest of the season. Without Manny Machado, they don’t have anyone that should scare opposing pitchers with the potential exception of Danny Valencia. Baltimore’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .313 with a strikeout rate of 24%. We have a hot game in Texas and a game in Coors Field, so Price is easily one of the top pitchers in this small slate.

Top Pitcher of the Slate

Skaggs is my number one pitching option of the slate tonight. In 18 starts this season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. While he does allow a lot of hard contact, some of that is negated by this pitcher-friendly ballpark. He draws an excellent matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .308 with a strikeout rate of 23%. He should be able to get a lot of easy ground balls and hopefully a lot of strikeouts. He’s slightly ahead of David Price as my top pitcher for this four-game slate.

Cheap top of the lineup bats for the afternoon slate

Some of the top overall bats may even be top values this afternoon, but there are several cheap or affordable bats near the top of some lineups today that should be of interest. All of the following hitters cost less than $4K on DraftKings. Rosell Herrera (91 wRC+, .065 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs just $3K in the second spot for the Royals against Matt Boyd (RHBs .334 wOBA since last season). On the other side, Danny Duffy has been better, but RHBs also still have a .334 wOBA against him since last year as well. Jeimer Candelario (127 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP) bats second. Ketel Marte (127 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP) also bats second against Jon Lester (RHBs .326 wOBA). Steven Souza Jr. (140 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP) bats fifth, but is still certainly interesting for less than $4K. Lester is not a pitcher players normally want to attack, but when the price is right, it is worth considering. Ketel and Souza Jr. are both below $3K on FanDuel as well as is Albert Almora Jr. (110 wRC+, .101 ISO vs LHP) across the field, who bats second against Robbie Ray (RHBs .310 wOBA, but 41.2 Hard% since 2017). Adam Eaton (149 wRC+, .122 ISO vs RHP) leads off for the Nationals against Freddy Peralta (LHBs .299 wOBA, 35 Hard%) for less than $3K as well.