DFS Alerts
A Cheap Leadoff Bat
Beckham hasn’t been fantastic this year or last, but 3.4k for a hitter in one of the best matchups on the slate is way too little. Since 2017, Beckham owns a respectable .171 ISO and .336 wOBA and is batting at the top of the order. BAL has the most favorable hitting conditions on the slate, outside of Coors, and he draws a matchup against the biggest gascan on the entire slate in Martin Perez. On the year, Perez is giving up a crazy .503 wOBA and .309 ISO. This is a don’t overthink it spot and just roll with Beckham and take the price savings.
Save At SP2
Saturday’s main slate seriously lacks attractive pitching options so it makes sense to look to save at SP2 in order to pay for Coors bats. Jeff Samardzija looks to be the best value option on the slate as he’ll take on the Oakland Athletics who will be without a DH with this game being played in San Francisco. Samardzija has had a poor injury-riddled season but the skill has been there in the past as he owns a career 3.82 SIERA. This is Samardzija’s second start since his return from the DL so it’s unlikely he’ll top 100 pitches but he should have plenty of leash to pay off his dirt cheap price tag.
Lefty Masher in a High Implied Team Total
I know BAL has been horrible this year, but you have Valencia facing a lefty in favorable hitting conditions. on the year, Valencia owns a .244 ISO and .371 wOBA and gets a matchup against a pitcher with only a 10.9% K rate who owns a 47.8% hard hit rate and a 6.22 xFIP. Everything about this matchup screams mispricing and so you should be rolling with Valencia if you want to pay up for some Coors bats.
Positive Regression Coming
Justin Turner has just been decent this year vs. lefties (.376 wOBA and .116 ISO), but if you look at his numbers in 2017 you know that he was absolutely crushing them (.321 ISO and .488 wOBA). Considering how small of a sample size this year’s numbers vs lefties are (51 AB’s) you should probably lean more toward last years numbers. Doing that and Turners 3.7k price tag is one of the worst I’ve seen in a while. Turner is batting 3rd in in the lineup and is just facing a decent lefty. Lock Turner in if you can’t fit Arenado.
No Need To Get Tricky Tonight
Nolan Arenado at home against an average lefty. We don’t need to say much else about this, especially given that there is no expensive pitching, so paying up for a couple top bats is easy to do. Wade LeBlanc is not terrible by any means, but he throws a lot of hittable strikes, and with Arenado’s .395 ISO and .529 wOBA combined with more walks than strikeouts against lefties, there is just no need to overthink this one.
This Guy's Way Better than His Numbers Show
If you’ve ridden he Jon Gray train all year they this article might cause you to put a hole in your wall, but I have never seen a higher ERA compared to xFIP this Gray’s. On the year, Grays ERA is 5.77 while his xFIP is 2.82. I know that he’s been terrible, but the underlying numbers (28.4% K%, 7% BB%, etc.) show that he really isn’t that bad of a pitcher. It may be a good idea to avoid him on a full slate, but on a 6 game slate his 7.2k price tag is too enticing even pitching in Coors vs. a tough SEA lineup. Fade him if you don’t believe in his underlying numbers, but I’m rolling with him everywhere.
It Ain't Pretty Out There
Pitching is sparse again tonight, with no aces to pay up for. The obvious play is not very exciting, but in San Diego against a team that is weak against right-handed pitching, it’s tough to pass on Kyle Hendricks tonight. It hasn’t been a great season, but he was in top form in his last start, and even with his lack of dominance, he still gets solid ground balls and soft contact without beating himself with walks. In San Diego, that’s all you really need with a .139 ISO and .294 wOBA from tonights projected Padres lineup.
Cheap Pitcher for Some Coors Exposure
This is strictly a price play. there isn’t anything in Samardzija’s numbers this year to suggest that he is a great player, but coming off a lengthy injury he may be back to a little bit of what he was last year. If we can get anywhere close to the 3.62 xFIP and the 24% k rate he had last year then his 5.4k price tag on DK is an incredible value when you consider that he’s playing in SF and playing against high strikeout team in the A’s. At this point, Vegas seems to think that he’s back to where he was considering the sub 4 implied team total for the A’s. If you want Coors bats on today’s 6 game slate, then unfortunately Shark is your best option.
Average
Hendricks halted a string of terrible starts his last time out against the San Francisco Giants as he struck out eight hitters over 8.1 innings pitched. Hendricks is having a down season but has been a slightly above average pitcher over the course of his career (3.85 SIERA) who has maintained close to a league average strikeout rate (20.9%). An average skill-set is about all you need in a matchup against the whiff-heavy Padres who own the league’s highest strikeout rate (26.1%) versus RHP. Hendricks will also have the benefit of this game being played at pitcher friendly PetCo and has one of the better win probabilities on the slate.
#NSFW
This isn’t rocket science here. Arenado at Coors facing a below average lefty in a game where the Rockies have an implied run total approaching seven runs. Arenado’s #NSFW career numbers against left-handed pitching: 149 wRC+, .285 ISO. Arenado’s especially #NSFW 2018 numbers against LHP: 225 wRC+, .398 ISO.
The High-Upside SP Option
On a slate that doesn’t feature any true aces taking the hill, Mike Clevinger has a high ceiling tonight as he faces the Yankees at home. While some may shy away simply because of the name-value the Yankees carry, in the same matchup on May 6th (at Yankee Stadium, no less) Clevinger went 7.1 innings, striking out 10 and only allowing 2 ER. The Yankees do strike out a lot with a team K% of 23.4%, so Clevinger should get a boost from a bit higher K-upside than usual. It is also worth noting that with Sanchez and Torres sidelined due to injury, this Yankees lineup isn’t quite as intimidating as they have been much of the season. If Clevinger can contain the top of the order, he should be poised for a big outing at possibly lower-ownership than some of the perceived safer SP options.
Baltimore Stack Offers Extreme Value and Upside
Some days when you first glance at pricing for a slate one spot stands out significantly above the rest – today, that is the Orioles facing Rangers southpaw Martin Perez. Let’s start with how bad Perez has been. He has the lowest K% and SS% on the slate at 10.9% and 5.0%, respectively, and has allowed the highest HC% on the slate at a whopping 46.7%. This combination of not striking anyone out and allowing everyone to hit the ball hard explains his 9.67 ERA on the season thus far. He also has show extreme splits tendencies, allowing a .473 wOBA to RHH. He is almost sure to struggle against an Orioles lineup stacked with righties top to bottom, which leads us to their pricing. Despite currently having the highest Vegas-implied team total on the slate outside of Coors, all Orioles players outside of Machado are simply mispriced like value options. Stacking Orioles is the clearest path to both safety and upside – expect them to carry high ownership (for good reason) on tonight’s slate.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones Low rain potential on Friday's full slate
The forecast for Friday night has been updated with very little chance of rain in all, but one low-risk spot. Read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers get updates from Kevin until lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Teoscar Hernandez (sore heel) scratched Friday; Dwight Smith Jr. replaces
Hernandez has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Friday’s matchup with the Boston Red Sox due to a sore left heel. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Dwight Smith Jr., who will play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, and Kevin Pillar all up one batting position, respectively, while Morales will now handle the designated hitter duties and Justin Smoak shifts to first base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Blue Jays order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Rick Porcello on the road this evening.
As reported by: Arden Zwelling via Twitter
Spot starter and struggling bullpen in a great park boosts a below average offense to a staggering run line
The Rockies have the top implied run line at Coors. The numbers is a staggering 6.82 runs and not that former Rockie Christian Bergman is anything special (13.8 K-BB% in 18 AAA starts this year, 9.0 K-BB% in 208 career MLB innings), but this offense has just an 81 wRC+ and 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP. This is a lineup with some stars though and Bergman has a significant reverse split (RHBs .406 wOBA, 14.8 HR/FB, 38.7 Hard% career) and 116 LHBs faced since last season have a .409 xwOBA against him with just a 35.2 GB%. The top bats in this lineup look extremely strong tonight: Charlie Blackmon (141 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Carlos Gonzalez (133 wRC+, .224 ISO), Nolan Arenado (110 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Trevor Story (93 wRC+, .223 ISO). DJ LeMahieu (82 wRC+, .113 ISO) has some virtue just by batting in the leadoff spot here. The Mariner bullpen has struggling over the last month as well with a 4.74 FIP and 11.5 K-BB%. Additionally, the lack of high priced pitching tonight should allow players to pay up for bats here.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Christian Bergman, DJ LeMahieu