DFS Alerts
Highly projected offense in a great park despite missing their top bat
At first glance, one might wonder why the Mariners have a 5.68 implied run line more than a full run below the home team at Coors tonight despite the obviously better offense when both teams are utilizing spot starters tonight. Then you realize it’s an NL park, which means no Nelson Cruz. Jeff Hoffman is the new pitcher. His only July action was eight days ago, when he faced 16 AAA batters. He’s faced a bit over 300 batters from either side of the plate in his major league career. RHBs (.392 wOBA, 12 HRs) have hit him better than LHBs (.323 wOBA, 10 HRs), while he’s been below a 10% K-BB with a 43 GB% in both rates. LHBs (36.4%) have made slightly harder contact than RHBs (32.7%). A disappointing bullpen is likely to see a lot of action in this one. Mitch Haniger (140 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Denard Span (119 wRC+, .182 ISO) have been the best hitters in the lineup against RHP over the last calender year. Dee Gordon (88 wRC+, .071 ISO), Jean Segura (101 wRC+, .124 ISO) and Kyle Seager (95 wRC+, .212 ISO) all have some value as upper half of the lineup bats in this spot.
Other tagged players: Jeff Hoffman, Denard Span, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, Dee Strange-Gordon
High projected run line, but nobody hitting the ball well
The White Sox have a top five implied run line at 4.91 against Brad Keller tonight despite a lack of offensive firepower. While Keller has exceeded a 50% ground ball rate with a wOBA below .300 against batters from either side of the plate, xwOBA drives RHBs up 31 points to .311 and LHBs up 73 points to .332. Additionally, the Kansas City bullpen has been horrific, barely striking out more batters than they’ve walked over the last 30 days (1.3 K-BB%). The question is, which White Sox bats can be useful here. Omar Narvaez owns the top wRC+ (129) in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year, but with just a .121 ISO. Jose Abreu (115 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .211 ISO) should be considered the top bats in the lineup, but over the last week, Abreu has a -87 wRC+ and 6.3 Hard%, while Moncada has not hit a single ball hard. The latter is something nobody else with more than 20 PAs over the last week can say. In fact, not a single batter in the lineup for the White Sox tonight with at least 10 PAs over the last week (which means all of the first seven) has a hard hit above 22.2% over that span. Someone is probably do some damage against this staff, but the most likely candidates aren’t inspiring much confidence tonight.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Brad Keller, Omar Narvaez Top corner infield bat in a great spot against pitcher who gets hammered by LHBs
The run line for the Cardinals has been increasing this afternoon and is up to 4.94. St Louis is generally a negative run environment that suppresses power, but that may change a bit in the summer heat. Matt Harvey has shown that he may not be a terrible pitcher over the last month or so, but players should stop short of believing in a resurgence as he has not allowed a HR over the last month despite a 35.2 Hard% and league average ground ball rate. LHBs have a .392 wOBA (.399 xwOBA) with a 39.2 Hard% and 35.4 GB% against him since last year. Matt Carpenter (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top corner infield bat tonight, who costs just $3.3K on FanDuel. Paul DeJong (120 wRC+, .200 ISO) jumps into the second spot and has the second highest ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Jedd Gyorko (65 wRC+, .126 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup below a 117 wRC+ against RHP over that same span though.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Matt Harvey Antonio Senzatela (finger blister) scratched Friday; Jeff Hoffman will start in his place
Senzatela has officially been placed on the 10-day disabled list, and he will not make his scheduled start for the Colorado Rockies in Friday’s home matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to a blister on his right finger. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Jeff Hoffman, who, like Senzatela, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projected outlook of the Mariners hitters in any significant fashion, but still be sure to double check out the projections for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for this evening’s main slate.
As reported by: Thomas Harding via Twitter
Pitcher may be over-rated in an extremely positive run environment
The Blue Jays are one of just eight teams below four implied runs (3.91) despite playing in one of the most positive run environments in baseball tonight (Fenway). Rick Porcello has a 3.69 ERA and 3.58 SIERA over the last month, but his 24.6 K% over that span is unsupported by just a 7.3 SwStr%. He is not generating above average grounders or limiting hard contact as he was earlier in the year (12 HRs last 14 starts). His success against LHBs this year (.304 wOBA) is based on 21.0 K-BB% against them, not the 33.8 GB% with a 39.3 Hard%. While Fenway actually greatly suppresses LH power, it does increase LH offense overall. Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 32 wRC+ (20 Hard%) over the last week and can go into month long slumps, but he still seems too cheap with some upside in this spot. Justin Smoak (126 wRC+, .255 ISO) is most certainly not in a slump (283 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and doesn’t cost too much more on DraftKings. Teoscar Hernandez (127 wRC+, .260 ISO) may be the lone RHB of interest here.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Rick Porcello, Teoscar Hernandez Elite One-Off in Fenway
We are still dealing with a small sample size, but Ryan Borucki has thrown a ton of sinkers (over 60%) in his first few major league starts. It’s always difficult to weigh all of the different hitting splits that we can look at. For instance, Mookie Betts has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .475 xwOBA this season. However, his numbers against the sinker aren’t appealing for a player at his price point. The same goes for Steve Pearce (who left yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch) and Xander Bogaerts. This is an approach that could make me look like a genius or a fool, but I will only be playing one Red Sox hitter tonight. J.D. Martinez always hits lefties well and currently carries a 64% hard contact rate against the sinker this season.
Stack Em Up
The Rockies are clearly the top offense of the slate. A matchup against Christian Bergman at home is already enticing enough, but throw in the fact that the Mariners had to use so many relievers last night and we could have an eruption from this Rockies’ offense. Every single hitter that they put in their lineup is going to be viable here. You can stack the Rockies in cash games or tournaments and you can target these hitters as elite plays individually. We’ve got a fly-ball pitcher in Coors Field, get ready for some fireworks.
Big Favorite at Home
Keuchel isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher. At one point a couple of years ago, he had a k-rate in the mid-20s, but that has regressed. It’s all the way down to 18% this season. I rarely cross low-strikeout pitchers off my list of potential targets, but Keuchel throws a lot of strikes and he has one of the best ground ball rates of any starter in baseball. He has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts, which has allowed him to be productive without racking up a bunch of strikeouts. The Tigers have been good against left-handed pitching this season, but Keuchel is facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park.
Potential Ace Flying Under the Radar
For some strange reason, people hate targeting Porcello in DFS. It’s similar to the hate Tiger Woods gets in the higher stakes tournaments across the industry. I don’t really understand it, but I will continue to exploit it. On the season, Porcello owns a respectable 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s really worked hard to lower his hard contact rate and improve his soft contact rate. While his strikeout rate is higher when facing a lefty, he has held righties to a .300 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate. He’ll likely face five righties tonight against the Blue Jays — a team that he has dominated in the past.
Multiple HRs allowed in eight of 18 starts in a power friendly park
Cole Hamels has allowed 21 HRs over 18 starts, including multiple HRs eight times this year. He’s not in Texas, but in another power friendly park in Baltimore and although the offense is not very good overall (80 wRC+ vs LHP), they do have a have a few interesting RHBs. Seven of nine Orioles in this particular lineup are actually above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year with five of them above a .180 ISO as well. Tim Beckham (125 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Manny Machado (120 wRC+, .235 ISO) have been the best of those bats among top half lineup batters. Jonathan Schoop (112 wRC+, .182 ISO) moves up to the second spot. Machado is the only player in this lineup above $3.7K on either site. This may not be a stacking situation, but one or two Baltimore bats with upside will open up more room for higher projected stacks. The Orioles are on the top half of the board with 4.61 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Cole Hamels Absent key bats, still the top projected offense outside Coors
As they generally are at home, against all expect the best pitchers, the Red Sox are one of the top projected offenses on the board (5.56), behind just two teams at Coors. Ryan Borucki hasn’t been bad for the Blue Jays, but has an 80 LOB% without allowing a HR along with a 12.3 K-BB% in a few starts. He had just a 9.5 K-BB% in 13 AAA starts this season. Though the Red Sox have improved against LHP, they are missing two top half of the lineup bats in Benintendi and Pearce tonight. While the former is left-handed, he’s being replaced by Brock Holt in the second spot, who has a .268 xwOBA and .038 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Mookie Betts (187 wRC+, .304 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (161 wRC+, .315 ISO) are obvious top bats at home against the lefty. Xander Bogaerts (107 wRC+, .139 ISO) joins those two above a 185 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Ryan Borucki Massive platoon split in a highly positive run environment
Shane Bieber has a 19.2 K-BB% through seven starts and a dominance of RHBs (.267 wOBA, 53.4 GB%) should really help him in a really difficult matchup against the Yankees, who are implied for just 4.57 runs despite the favorable setting in Cleveland. However, LHBs have raked for a .422 wOBA, 55.6 Hard% and 37 GB%, which is impressive even after a downward adjustment to .378 by xwOBA. While the dominance of the Yankee lineup lies on the right-hand side, there are some quality left-handed bats, who certainly can be played here. Didi Gregorius is out of the lineup today, but Brett Gardner (116 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) leads off, Aaron Hicks (108 wRC+, .208 ISO) bats third and Gregory Bird (113 wRC+, .276 ISO) bumps up to fifth. Omitting RH Yankee bats is an unorthodox approach on a night when creative diversity is probably not necessary, but it might even be the optimal approach, though Aaron Judge (164 wRC+, .325 ISO) is rarely a bad play.
Other tagged players: Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks, Shane Bieber, Aaron Judge A top bat in a great spot way too cheap on FanDuel
The Rangers have a 4.89 implied run line that’s sixth best on the board. Higher than usual for a game not in Texas, but more understandable when considering another favorable park (Baltimore) and starting pitcher (Alex Cobb). Cobb has allowed at least five runs in four of his last six starts and has allowed 16 HRs in as many starts this year. Batters from either side have a wOBA/xwOBA between .329 and .341 against him since last year with a hard hit rate just a bit above average 35-37%, which benefits a more balanced lineup like Texas. Shin-soo Choo (134 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the clear top bat in this lineup and costs a stunning $3.3K on FanDuel. The problem here, is that the only other batters above a 105 wRC+ or .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year bats eighth (Joey Gallo 115 wRC+, .306 ISO) and costs $4.4K on DraftKings. There appears to be much more value in Texas bats on FanDuel where Choo is still the most expensive bat in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Alex Cobb Daily Bullpen Alert: Unique situation for the worst pen, shallow starting pitching for some other weak pens
The Mets (5.76 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%) and Angels (5.24 FIP, 14.1 K-BB%) are the only two bullpens above a five FIP over the last 30 days. The Royals (4.87 FIP, 1.8 K-BB%) are next highest and deserve special mention due to those horrible peripherals. The next three highest FIPs are all above an 11 K-BB% over the last 30 days, including an extremely surprising entrant in the Mariners (4.74 FIP, 11.5 K-BB%), who were looked upon as a potentially dominant bullpen not too long ago. The Mets are in a unique situation tonight. Syndergaard is starting, but making his first start since May, while facing just 12 low A ball batters in one rehab start. While this may impose significant restrictions on him, Seth Lugo (3.42 FIP, 18.1 K-BB% this season) is one of the few quality arms in that pen and can go multiple innings. He hasn’t pitched since Monday, perhaps being held out for this spot, in which they don’t expect Syndergaard to go deep. The Angels will start Felix Pena, who hasn’t exceeded 5.1 innings or 83 pitches in any of his four starts. The Royals start Brad Keller (5.1 IP per start), but there are few White Sox bats who should excite players, though one or two come to mind. Additional pitchers averaging less than 5.1 innings per start include Wei-Yin Chen, Tyler Chatwood and Jake Odorizzi. Chen has completed six innings in three of his last five matchups, but hasn’t completed five in four of his last seven. The Marlins have a 4.07 FIP, but a third worst 8.8 K-BB% out of their pen over the last 30 days. Chatwood walks the park and runs up his pitch count and the Cubs have a 4.51 FIP, 10.3 K-BB% players can take advantage of, but what they might not be able to utilize is a poor San Diego offense. Odorizzi is facing his old team and is backed by solid pen with a 3.68 FIP and 19.7 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Speculating on lesser proven arms with a lack of top end pitching tonight
To illustrate the difference in the quality of pitching over the last two days, five of 14 pitchers reached $10K on both sites last night, while just two of 30 reach $10K on either site with none exceeding that number on DraftKings. One of those pitchers (Noah Syndergaard) leads the board with a 28.3 K%, but is fresh off a long DL stint, having faced just 12 low A ball batters since May. The other (Madison Bumgarner) pitches in a great park, but has a below average strikeout rate (19.6%) and while the Athletics have a 93 wRC+ and 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP, they have a team 118 wRC+ on the road and 120 wRC+ over the last seven days. If we’re not looking at high end pitching tonight, maybe we speculate on lesser proven arms who have shown some upside. It could all come crashing down for Felix Pena, who’s facing the Dodgers (110 wRC+ vs RHP) with a board high 91 mph aEV), but he does have the second best strikeout rate on the board (28.1%) and costs less than $7K in a great park tonight. Shane Bieber is in a terrible spot at home against the Yankees (16+ HR/FB on the road, vs RHP and last seven days), but his 19.2 K-BB% through seven starts is the worst he’s done since being drafted. His 23.1 K% is a top 10 mark on the board tonight for $8K on either site. Opposing him is Domingo German, who has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (26.9%) and is tied for the top SwStr rate (15%). This is a really tough spot as well (Indians 123 wRC+, 27.5 Hard-Soft% at home, 106 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP), but the run prevention has improved over the last month and while his ERA is still well above his estimators, it’s much more due to strand rate issues than hard contact. Strikeouts (17.8%) and ground balls (55.3%) are both down for Dallas Keuchel, but the latter is still well above league average, while his ERA and estimators remain below four. The Tigers are competent against LHP (108 wRC+, 19.9 K%), but without much power, Keuchel should be albe to keep them grounded in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Carlos Martinez has walked just five over his last four starts. He still has just a 22 K%, but perhaps as much upside as anyone on the board not coming off the DL tonight with an 84.7 mph aEV. Anibal Sanchez (23.3 K%, 3.98 SIERA, .289 xwOBA, 84.5 mph aEV) has simply been a better pitcher since ditching some sinkers for more cutters this season. The Diamondbacks are better than their 82 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP now that they’re a bit healthier, but he still costs less than $8K. Maybe the most interesting arm is Nathan Eovaldi though. He’s struck out nine, while allowing a single run in two of his last three starts and Tampa Bay has him elevating a 97 mph fastball this year, which has led to a 25.3 Whiff% on it, the highest of any of his pitches with three above 20%. His 24.3 K% is fourth best on the board and there are significant questions about each of the pitchers above him tonight. His .331 SIERA is fourth. Maybe the Rays have finally found the key to unlocking his potential.
Other tagged players: Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Marmol, Shane Bieber, Domingo German, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Pena