DFS Alerts

Context

Tyler Chatwood has been an utter disaster for the Cubs this season. And to be honest, it’s probably in your best interest to completely avoid rostering him. However, I’m ok taking a complete GPP flier on him in a favorable road matchup against the Padres (26 K%, 80 wRC+ vs RHP) at pitcher friendly PetCo. Chatwood’s struggles have largely been centered around a ridiculous 18.9% walk rate. He’s had zero control this season and those free passes have unsurprisingly turned into runs. It’s a long shot but should he show any semblance of control he has the context to put up a big fantasy performance.

Home Field Advantage

In his past four performances Chen has posted negative DK points twice and topped 17 points twice (17.9, 21.7). Unsurprisingly, his two positive performances were at home against weak offenses (Tampa Bay + Arizona) while his two negative performances were on the road against strong teams (Nationals) or in unfavorable pitching environments (Colorado). Thankfully for Chen he gets to face a weak Phillies offense (22.8 K%, 88 wRC+ vs LHP) at home. Chen doesn’t give you a ton of upside but has a good chance to return positive value on his $4,800 price tag on DraftKings.

Down Year, Good Talent

Michael Conforto is probably the most skilled offensive player you’ll find in this price range. He’s had a down year offensively but has shown a tremendous skill-set versus RHP throughout the course of his career (131 wRC+, .232 ISO). Tanner Roark has had a poor year himself (4.48 SIERA) and he’s not a pitcher I’m shying away from when rostering this talented of a hitter at this cheap of a price tag.

Cheap Power

Abreu has had a brutal stretch offensively but his price tag stands out as the Cuban slugger gets a matchup against Brad Keller in hitter friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. In all likelihood, Keller’s 2.52 ERA is a bit deceiving as his advanced run prevention metrics tell a different story – 3.38 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA. Keller allows a lot of contact as he possesses a 7.9 SwStr% and 14.2% strikeout rate. Abreu gives you some nice power upside (.213 career ISO vs RHP) in a good matchup at a cheap price tag.

Never This Cheap

Hunter Renfroe is mostly getting a shoutout because we never see anyone priced this low on DraftKings ($2,300). Despite what his price tag would indicate, Renfroe has actually been decent this year offensively with a 101 wRC+ and .183 ISO. If in the lineup, Renfroe will likely slot into the fifth hole against Tyler Chatwood who has had all sorts of control issues this year. Renfroe may not be needed because high priced pitching options are so limited but he remains a way to get in all the expensive bats you desire.

Don't Overthink It

It isn’t extremely creative to say to just play expensive Rockies bats as your core tonight, but that is what the slate is giving us. There is definitely a case to be made to fade what will be extreme ownership, but I can’t find any reason not to just name these Colorado bats as the Core Plays, because they are the best thing going tonight. And with no need to spend up at pitching, it’s not even prohibitive to start your builds with Arenado/Blackmon.

Site Specific Values

$3,300 seems to be the number that the FanDuel pricing algorithm is giving to some top bats tonight with Matt Carpenter, Shin-Soo Choo and Mike Moustakas all sitting here at this salary in strong matchups. The Reds Matt Harvey has been much better recently, but he still just hasn’t shown any consistent ability to get lefties out. He has just a 16.6% K rate while allowing hard hits and fly balls to the tune of a .208 ISO and .356 wOBA. Carpenter hits the ball hard and in the air with 50% hard hits and a .252 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Way Too Cheap For These Skills

There are a lot of crazy good values on FanDuel tonight, but Shin-Soo Choo at just $3,300 against Alex Cobb in Baltimore stands out in all formats. Cobb has been shellacked all season with his low strikeouts and inability to induce ground balls to left-handed batters. Choo is getting better with age, giving old guys everywhere hope that anything is possible. Against right-handed pitching, he has a 49% hard hit rate, .253 ISO and .409 wOBA. He hits atop a high upside offense against a bad pitcher in a good hitting environment at a low salary. Lock and load.

You Know What To Do

There is a lot of offense on a 15-game slate, but the Rockies are so far ahead of the pack, it’s just overthinking it not to go heavy on Colorado tonight. In D.J. LeMahieu we have a leadoff hitter with elite contact skills leading off for the top team of the night against a low strikeout pitcher. There is so much upside from hitting at the top of this lineup and filling your second base position here makes sense in all formats.

Just Too Good

Third base is the loaded position tonight, but even so, Nolan Arenado stands out as the top bat on this slate. The Rockies dwarf the rest of this full slate with a team total well above six runs and make for a dangerous fade even at high ownership. Christian Bergman is a minor league journeyman, and in his major league sample size sprinkled back to 2015, he has leaned towards reverse splits with a terribly low 10.9% strikeout rate to right-handed batters with 40% fly balls and 39% hard hits allowed. Those splits are enough for me to put Arenado ahead of Charlie Blackmon as the top Rockies bat, but they are 1 and 1-A on this slate.

Some Upside Here

A couple of my favorite tournament options are squaring off in Minnesota tonight with Jake Odorizzi and Nathan Eovaldi, who both rank in the top five in strikeout rate on this slate.

As I said with Keuchel, this is not nearly an all-in slate on any pitcher, so please don’t overrate this Core Play designation. But when searching for upside at a reasonable price, the fly balls of Odorizzi are at lower risk against the low power of Tampa and he has been trending the right way with strikeouts, posting a 28.3% K rate over the past month. The walks are scary, and he will always be at risk, but there is more points per dollar upside here than with most of the higher priced options tonight.

Gotta Play Somebody

I strongly dislike this pitching slate, and I want to stress that this is a spread the risk night in tournaments. While I have to tab somebody as a Core Play, I do not by any means recommend going anywhere near all-in on a below average strikeout pitcher like Dallas Keuchel. But, the ground balls and soft contact are always there, and it takes a lot of bad luck for things to go wonky on him.

It has happened an alarming amount this season, but even against a right-handed heavy Tigers team, with 55% ground balls and 29% hard contact, both of which have been trending in Keuchel’s favor recently give him a solid floor and a reasonable expectation of a quality start at a fair salary. He is more of a cash game play than an upside tournament option, but he’s in the mix everywhere.

I Guess He's OK

This is just not a good pitching slate at all. I do not feel confident in a single pitcher on this slate, and I’ll definitely be spreading out the risk in tournaments. When we look at FanDuel, none of the salaries are outlandish, and I guess I’ll start with the long term track record of Madison Bumgarner in his great home ballpark.

The numbers on Bumgarner are still lackluster this season with below average 19.6% strikeouts, but he’s shown a little bit of life recently and he gets an Oakland team losing a DH and despite some good right-handed power bats, their numbers against left-handed pitching are very uninspiring this season. I do not love this play, but on a slate where I’m just hoping to not lose because of my pitcher, this is the guy who seems least likely to completely implode.

Attacking a Struggling Pitcher

It’s been an alarmingly bad year for Alex Cobb, and he simply hasn’t shown any signs of turning things around. His ERA currently sits at 6.67, his advanced metrics aren’t showing any signs of improvement, and he has given up five or more runs eight times in the first half of the year. That’s not good. Throw in a matchup in a hitter-friendly park against an offense that has a ton of power, and you have a great recipe for a GPP stack. I love all the Texas LHBs today, with Mazara, Choo, and Gallo making for a high-upside GPP mini-stack.

Fire Up the Lefties, and Maybe a Cheap Righty, Too

For whatever reason, the site pricing algorithms REALLY dislike the Cardinals these days. A good chunk of the offense comes at very reasonable price tags right now, and they draw a favorable matchup this evening against Matt Harvey. Harvey has had major issues against left-handed batters over the last two seasons, so Matt Carpenter is obviously your top play here. Even though he is the most expensive of the bunch, he would be a priority in any Cardinals stacks this evening and is a great one-off play.

Dexter Fowler hit a grand slam the other night, his first signs of life in months, and I could see playing him as a value if he cracks the lineup. Lastly, you can even include a reasonably-priced RHB like Martinez or Ozuna in a GPP lineup, especially if the Cardinals are able to get to Cincinnati’s bullpen early.