DFS Alerts
Value and potency in the Arizona lineup
The Diamondbacks didn’t do much against Eric Lauer last night, but get a shot at another questionable lefty in Joey Lucchesi, whom RHBs have just a .322 wOBA against, but also a .355 xwOBA and 41.5 Hard%. Arizona is implied for just 4.27 runs, but six of eight bats with at least a 119 wRC+ and .170 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Remove Ketel Marte (119 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Steven Souza (141 wRC+, .172 ) and the remaining four two through seven hitters are all above 135 wRC+ and .220 ISO. Paul Goldschmidt (188 wRC+, .400 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (149 wRC+, .333 ISO) are the only two RHBs batters in the lineup above $3.7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Ketel Marte, Joey Lucchesi
No rain, but a lot of wind in Friday night's forecast
There are no rain concerns in Friday night’s forecast, but Kevin does have the lowdown on some wind conditions that could impact games tonight. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page and premium subscribers get updates until lock on Crunch Time with Kevin at 6:30 ET.
High priced offense in a tough run environment could be a fade tonight
Reynaldo Lopez has a .261 BABIP and 7.6 HR/FB behind his 3.68 ERA. His 5.11 SIERA is much higher. The Astros have a 5.06 implied run line that’s fourth best on the board despite the most negative run environment. All eight batters in the lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP over the last calendar year have at least a 110 wRC+. The problem is that only Evan Gattis (112 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Alex Bregman (136 wRC+, .207 ISO) are above a .175 ISO, which probably means they work better as a stack…a high priced stack, which may give players issuse with lineup construction tonight. Another factor is that Lopez has been somewhat competent against RHBs. His .294 wOBA against them since last year drives up to a .323 xwOBA, but even that’s around league average with a 28.8 Hard%. The Astros could very well trounce Lopez, but there would be some merit towards fading, though those paying up for pitching may not even have a choice.
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Reynaldo Lopez A top bat and a value one in a matchup against a HR prone pitcher with platoon issues
The run line for the Twins is dropping (down to 4.53 from 4.8 just an hour or two ago), but Dylan Bundy is a pitcher who has significant issues with LHBs (.342 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since last year) and HRs (18 over his last 11 starts). Eddie Rosario (156 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) would seem like a high priced bat worth some exposure tonight and he probably will not be highly owned. Joe Mauer (101 wRC+, .385 xwOBA) would be a salary saver in that instance at just $3.6K on DraftKings and more than $1K less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer, Dylan Bundy Cheap cleanup hitter in Vegas's top projected lineup
The Red Sox are still in a positive run environment, but on the road and in a power suppressing one in Kansas City, yet still top the board with 5.4 implied runs tonight. Jason Hammel is a fly ball pitcher with a 20 point gap in his splits (in favor or RHBs actually), though xwOBA brings both sides within three points of .360 since last season (the power suppressing home park and strong defense probably helps). The top three are great if you can afford them: Mookie Betts (127 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (122 wRC+, .188 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (176 wRC+, .372 ISO). Steve Pearce (110 wRC+, .187 ISO) may be the top value here. He’s been surprisingly above average against same-handed pitching over the last calendar year and costs less than $4K (just $2.5K on FanDuel) out of the cleanup spot.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jason Hammel, JD Martinez Terrible lineup, but value in cheap bats against a below average pitcher
The Tigers lineup is atrocious. Nick Castellanos (111 wRC+, .209 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a 90 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Niko Goodrom (90 wRC+, .214 ISO) is the only other batter above an 81 wRC+ or .141 ISO. However, they are cheap (aside from Castellanos) and on the top quarter of the board with 4.84 implied runs tonight. That’s because batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Bartolo Colon since last season. Jacoby Jones (67 wRC+, .141 ISO) is in the leadoff spot for $3.2K or less and might make some sense if paying for deGrom or Sale.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Jacoby Jones, Bartolo Colon Potent, but expensive lineup against an improved pitcher
The Yankees are on the road, but still above five implied runs (5.21 is third highest on the board) in Toronto. While batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .350 since last season, RHBs have a 53.1 GB% and LHBs just a 29.7 Hard%, while been improvement in Gaviglio’s work this season (22.6 K%, 3.97 ERA, 3.82 SIERA, .308 xwOBA, 4.3% Barrels/BBE). While the potency of this incredible lineup can’t be denied, high priced pitching may warrant limited exposure at high cost. Aarons Judge (170 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP last calendar year and Hicks (106 wRC+, .205 ISO) both exceed a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Brett Gardner (112 wRC+, .153 ISO) is your salary saver from $3.5K or less.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hill, Sam Gaviglio, Brett Gardner It's HOT in Los Angeles
The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks of the slate and they should come at fairly low ownership. They have a lot working in their favor tonight. It’s extremely hot in Los Angeles, their offense has been red-hot at the plate over the last couple of weeks, and they are facing a pitcher that has allowed a .421 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Yasmani Grandal are all elite plays at their respective positions.
Home Runs are Coming in Bunches Tonight
If we take ownership out of the equation, the Nationals are my favorite stack of the slate. They scored 14 runs last night and went through a bunch of Marlins’ relievers. This means that Miami will need Dan Straily to pitch deep into this game (which is a positive for Washington) or they will have to turn to a tired bullpen. Straily not only gives up a lot of walks, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 48% hard contact rate. He has given up a .390 xwOBA to lefties and a .424 xwOBA to righties. Each of the first seven batters in the Nationals’ projected lineup have a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Adams.
Massive Upside at Home
DeGrom has been elite in every sense of the word this season, posting a 2.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. He has a high ground ball rate and is one of the best in baseball at inducing soft and medium contact. Even though the Rays tend to be one of the most prepared offenses in the American League, they don’t have a ton of talent. Their projected lineup has a .300 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. To make deGrom even more enticing, he’s pitching at home where he has averaged 27 fantasy points (DK scoring) per start this season.
Favorite Against a Right-Handed Heavy Lineup
It feels gross saying this, but Lynn will be included in my player pool tonight. I’ve played him one other time this season and it worked out well. It was in a similar spot as this one, as he was facing a right-handed heavy lineup at home. On the season, Lynn has held righties to a .299 xwOBA with a 28% strikeout rate. He’ll likely face six or seven righties tonight against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The more I type, the more I’m selling myself on Lynn tonight.
Coming off a huge night and facing the worst contact manager on the board
After hanging 14 runs on the Marlins last night and coming back from a nine run deficit, the Nationals are Vegas’s second highest projected offense tonight (5.28) against Dan Straily who has the highest xwOBA (.405) and Barrels/BBE (10.9%) on the board tonight. Straily has no split with batters from either side of the plate just a bit above a .330 wOBA against him since last season, though same-handed batters have an increase in xwOBA (.343) and hard hit rate (39.3%) above LHBs (.325 xwOBA, 33.7 Hard%). While each of the first seven batters in the order are quality bats here, Matt Adams (139 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only one below $4K on both sites. Trea Turner (113 wRC+, .179 ISO) is coming off a massive night and is top 10 among tonight’s Stolen Base Threat Ratings (available to premium subscribers).
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Dan Straily Top park on the board has a negative weather factor and solid contact manager
With a lack of extremely positive run environments on the board, Cleveland may be the top one. Yet, they are just below five implied runs (4.84 is fifth highest today) against a contact prone pitcher (16.2 K%, 8.7 SwStr%). That might be because Paul Blackburn shut them out for 6.1 innings in his last start with a season high five strikeouts, but that would seem his absolute ceiling and unlikely to be repeated in Cleveland. Where he could pose a problem is in his 50.7 GB% and 87 mph aEV, that could limit hard air contact (5.3% Barrels/BBE) along with Kevin’s forecast calling for sustained winds blowing in around 15 mph. While we never want to take the top part of this lineup including Francisco Lindor (139 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year, 305 wRC+ last seven days), Michael Brantley (133 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (160 wRC+, .304 ISO) off the board. Paying up for them could be difficult if looking at high priced pitching as well. LHBs have just a .284 wOBA with a 53.5 GB% and 28.5 Hard% against Blackburn since last season, though his xwOBA is 51 points higher.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, Paul Blackburn Low-Owned Value Option
When searching for some upside from a value, it’s easy to overlook Nick Williams against Trevor Williams, who has done a great job at limiting the damage against left-handed hitters this season. He has a .308 wOBA with a .139 ISO against left-handed hitters so far.
That said, Williams has a low strikeout rate and tends to pitch to contact against lefties. He uses his fastball right at 50% of the time and averages 90-92 mph on that pitch. Since being called up last season, Nick Williams has a .496 wOBA with a .512 CXwOBA and a .368 ISO with a 40.63% hard-hit rate against fastballs in that range. There is a lot of upside here, but nothing is ever a lock. Still, at this price, I’m willing to roll the dice.
Batted Ball Profile Is A+
I don’t love stacking the Tigers in general, and while I do think that’s a solid route tonight, I think Nick Castellanos is an excellent one-off play. Colon throws his little two-seam sinking fastball over 80% of the time, meaning Castellanos profiles as one of the best options on the slate. Not only does Castellanos have a .499 CXwOBA with a .180 ISO and 43.56% hard-hit rate on sinkers, he has a .637 CXwOBA with a .250 ISO and a 40% hard-hit rate on fastballs under 88 mph.
Additionally, Colon has a .342 wOBA with a .271 ISO and a 47.1% hard-rate against right-handed hitters this season, while Castellanos has a .479 CXwOBA with a .199 ISO and a 90.4 average exit velocity against right-handed pitching.