DFS Alerts

Jordan ZImmermann has improved this season, but there still may be value in Texas lineup

Jordan Zimmermann has been a league average pitcher by strikeout rate, ERA and estimators this season, but that’s just 10 starts in which he’s gone beyond the fifth inning just four times and with a terrible defense behind him. Batters from either side still have a .350+ wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season (though that’s down significantly this year alone). If the theme of the evening is value on offense, then perhaps Elvis Andrus (100 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Adrian Beltre (116 wRC+, .172 ISO) fit the bill for less than $4K. Shin-Soo Choo (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) is just an overall strong bat if you can afford him, leading the lineup in wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year and behind just Joey Gallo (118 wRC+, .311 ISO) in ISO. Choo has a 222 wRC+ and 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days. The Rangers are implied for 4.67 runs, in the upper-middle part of the board.

Potential Stack With A Lot Of Upside

When looking at stacks on the slate tonight, I think the Yankees may fly under the radar. Digging into the stats, Sam Gaviglio uses his sinker a lot to generate groundballs. With that said, he gives up a lot of hard contact with it, and his ISO allowed is .255. He doesn’t generate a lot of swinging strikes with the pitch, but he does with his slider, which he throws 27% of the time, compared to the sinker he’s using 57.8% of the time.

Since 2016, Stanton has a .436 wOBA with a .271 ISO, Judge has a .427 wOBA with a .312 ISO, and Hicks has a .381 wOBA with a .211 ISO against sinkers. Didi hits sliders well, and Judge/Stanton both have CXwOBAs over .460 against sliders since the start of 2016. The upside comes against that sinker, and with Stratton throwing it so much, I like the potential upside from the Yankees tonight.

Potential Stack With A Lot Of Upside

When looking at stacks on the slate tonight, I think the Yankees may fly under the radar. Digging into the stats, Sam Gaviglio uses his sinker a lot to generate groundballs. With that said, he gives up a lot of hard contact with it, and his ISO allowed is .255. He doesn’t generate a lot of swinging strikes with the pitch, but he does with his slider, which he throws 27% of the time, compared to the sinker he’s using 57.8% of the time.

Since 2016, Stanton has a .436 wOBA with a .271 ISO, Judge has a .427 wOBA with a .312 ISO, and Hicks has a .381 wOBA with a .211 ISO against sinkers. Didi hits sliders well, and Judge/Stanton both have CXwOBAs over .460 against sliders since the start of 2016. The upside comes against that sinker, and with Stratton throwing it so much, I like the potential upside from the Yankees tonight.

Potential Stack With A Lot Of Upside

When looking at stacks on the slate tonight, I think the Yankees may fly under the radar. Digging into the stats, Sam Gaviglio uses his sinker a lot to generate groundballs. With that said, he gives up a lot of hard contact with it, and his ISO allowed is .255. He doesn’t generate a lot of swinging strikes with the pitch, but he does with his slider, which he throws 27% of the time, compared to the sinker he’s using 57.8% of the time.

Since 2016, Stanton has a .436 wOBA with a .271 ISO, Judge has a .427 wOBA with a .312 ISO, and Hicks has a .381 wOBA with a .211 ISO against sinkers. Didi hits sliders well, and Judge/Stanton both have CXwOBAs over .460 against sliders since the start of 2016. The upside comes against that sinker, and with Stratton throwing it so much, I like the potential upside from the Yankees tonight.

The Mets (6.18), Tigers (5.49), Angels (5.34) and Royals (5.10) are the worst bullpens in baseball by FIP over the last 30 days. The Angels have a 15.7 K-BB% that’s 11th best in the majors over that span. The Mets have deGrom on the mound in a great spot tonight. Jordan Zimmermann has been pitching more effectively for the Tigers (8.4 K-BB%), but has left after five innings in three of his last four starts. This is a spot where players can attack with Texas bats. Jason Hammel is at home tonight, but facing the Red Sox. If players need any extra-incentive tonight, the Royals have a 3.3 K-BB% over the last month that’s less than half the next worst bullpen. The Rays, as they often do, will be utilizing a nice portion of their pen with a 3.56 FIP and 12.1 K-BB% over the last month. Paul Blackburn (pen 4.05 FIP, 15.1 K-BB% last 30 days), Joey Lucchesi (3.05, 23.1%), Dan Straily (3.55, 10%), and Lance Lynn (3.59, 20%) are additional pitchers averaging five innings or less with at least five starts on the season. The key takeaway here seems to be beware the strong pens for the Padres and Twins.

If paying up for one of the many high priced arms tonight, German Marquez could potentially be a great secondary option. He has allowed more than two ERs in just one of his road starts this season and he struck out eight Phillies in that start. He has some very similar peripherals in his career home or road (13.3 K-BB%), but the difference is in a drop from a 19.4 HR/FB at Coors to a 12.8 HR/FB on the road. His .307 xwOBA for the season has the lowest negative gap (that’s good) on the board (31 points) from his actual wOBA. He faces a tough offense tonight (107 wRC+, 20.3 K% vs RHP), but with a massively favorable park shift for just $5.8K on DraftKings. John Gant has had some issues with control recently and now has a 10.2 BB% this season and 10.3 BB% for his career in the majors, but does miss bats at a league average rate and finds himself in a great park in San Francisco against an offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP for $6.3K. Nick Pivetta is far from safe, but his 28 K% is higher than some much more expensive pitchers. The Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but an 8.5 HR/FB at home and team 17.7 K-BB% over the last seven days. He costs less than $8.5K on either site. Felix Hernandez costs less than $8K at home against the Rockies. He has an 11.8 SwStr% and 51.2 GB% over the last month, which is really the best that can be said about him. The matchup is the real attraction (77 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP, 18.9 K-BB% last seven days) in a great park. Jordan Zimmermann has his highest strikeout rate since 2014 (22.6%) and has allowed just four ERs in 17 innings since returning from the DL. By ERA and estimators (and even xwOBA), he’s been a league average pitcher through 10 starts. He faces a below average Texas offense outside of Texas in a spot with some strikeout upside (25.2% vs RHP).

One quarter of the board reaches $10K on DraftKings tonight

Three pitchers reach $11K or more on both sites with another above $10K on both and three more reaching $10K on DraftKings. That’s seven DraftKings pitchers who cost $10K or more! Chris Sale (36.1 K%, 2.48 SIERA) and Jacob deGrom (31.5 K%, 2.85 SIERA) are the top two pitchers on the board in just above every key stat today and both are in nice spots. Sale is in Kansas City ((< 85 wRC+ on the road and vs LHP, 58 wRC+, 20.6 K-BB%, 6.1 HR/FB last seven days), who strike out around league average against southpaws (21.9%) and has completed seven innings with double digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He’ll need a masterpiece to justify his cost, but he’s capable of doing it. DeGrom is at home home against the DH-less Rays (16.3 K-BB% on the road, 14.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 26.2 K%, 4.9 HR/FB last seven days). While his strikeout rate has dipped more than five points to 26.3% over the last month, his 15.3 SwStr% is right in line with his season mark. Lance McCullers is the last of the $11K pitchers. He’s struck out 25 of his last 76 batters, bringing his season strikeout rate up above 25%. While he’s not the top pitcher on the board in that aspect (not even close), he is in regards to ground balls (55.1%) and should have enough to overwhelm the White Sox (18.0 K-BB% on the road, 18.6 K-BB% vs RHP, 18.4 K-BB% last seven days) in the most negative run environment in baseball. Carlos Carrasco returns from the DL with a short four inning rehab start in AA under his belt and hasn’t thrown more than 39 pitches in a major league game in nearly a month. He costs more than $10K on both sites. Mike Foltynewicz has a .255 BABIP, 83.2 LOB%, 8.2 HR/FB and 10.2 SwStr% that do not support a 2.02 ERA or 29.5 K%, but is certainly an improved pitcher in a high upside spot (Brewers 25.2 K% vs RHP) and costs $1.7K less on FanDuel. Freddy Peralta actually has the highest strikeout rate on the board (37.7%) through five starts. How he accomplishes this with a 92 mph that he seemingly has little command of is a bit of a mystery, but he seems to get some great extension off the mound, allowing him to generate an Effective Velocity 1.6 mph above his actual velocity, the highest gap on the board (deGrom is the only other pitcher above 1 mph). Kenta Maeda is $9K on FD, exactly $10K on DraftKings. He has exceeded 95 pitches five times this season and pitched into the seventh in four of his last seven. His 13.8 SwStr% is third best on the board (more than five starts) and he’s one of the better contact managers on the board (.305 xwOBA, 31.7% 95+ mph EV). The Angels have a 107 wRC+ with a 20 K% vs RHP (14.8 K% last seven days), but are predominantly right-handed. For his career, RHBs have a .263 wOBA and 26.2 K-BB% against him.

Opportunity + Positional Scarcity

If you’re not playing Trea Turner at SS you’re likely slotting in Ahmed for cheap as long as he’s batting second against the southpaw Joey Lucchesi. Much like our other value play Mikie Mahtook, Ahmed doesn’t have a strong offensive skill-set, so this play is more about opportunity + positional scarcity than anything else. SS is continually one of the weaker positions and Friday is no different outside of Turner, so it makes sense to save a few bucks to spend elsewhere if you’re not set on playing Turner.

Fortunate BABIP

Mahtook has found himself in a leadoff role with Leonys Martin on the shelf and he’ll remain a daily value option for as long as he holds onto that role. Mahtook doesn’t offer much offensively but should find himself with plenty of opportunity in a favorable matchup against Bartolo Colon. Colon allows a ton of contact (5.7 SwStr%, 14.5 K%) so we’re really just hoping for some fortunate BABIP as Mahtook should be able to get the bat on the ball.

DL Suppression

Steven Souza returned from the DL on Thursday night and still has a suppressed price tag because of his prolonged absence – he’s the absolute minimum on FanDuel ($2,000) and a mere $3,300 on DraftKings. Souza had a strong rehab stint, recording at least one hit in six starts and finished the stint with a two HR game on July 3rd. The biggest takeaway there is that Souza appears to be fully healthy and when healthy Souza is an above average offensive player – he owns a career 109 wRC+ and .162 ISO vs LHP.

Never Much Better Than Average

Lance Lynn is the guy I’m looking at the hardest for value SP2 consideration in cash games while Sonny Gray is drawing my attention in GPPs. The reality is Gray was likely never much better than an average pitcher and a transition to New York has been a rude awakening for the former Oakland righty. Despite a rough season, Gray does have a 30+ DK pt game against this Toronto team under his belt already this season, which has been his high point this year.

There’s not a ton of upside in this largely neutral matchup against the Blue Jays (23.5 K%: 100 wRC+ vs RHP) but Gray gives you a decent shot at ~ 15 DK points, which is hard to find at his price range for this slate.

Wide Splits

Sigh. We’ve been down this road many times already this season. Lance Lynn is not good. At least against lefties (career .346 wOBA, 5.02 xFIP, 17.5 K%, 12.9 BB%). He’s actually been quite good against righties for his career – .280 wOBA, 3.10 xFIP, 26.3 K%, 4.6 BB%. That puts Lynn into play whenever he faces a team as right-handed as the Orioles.

Last night Baltimore only ran out one lefty (Chris Davis) against Twins righty Aaron Slegers and they only have three left handed bats on the roster (Jace Peterson, Chris Davis, Chance Sisco). So worst case scenario for Lynn is only three lefty bats – that’s a lineup he should be able to work his way through.

Scraping Up Some Salary Relief

The BABIP gods have graced Colon with a little more success these days, though it’s still clear that he doesn’t have much left in the tank. I have no problems picking on him. The problem is that the Tigers don’t have a lineup that’s really worth much of a hoot against right-handed pitching. The best ISO on the entire team against RHP this year belongs to Niko Goodrum. He carries a .230 mark and is the only player over .200. That’s not good. Well, Niko, you’ve just become a core mid-range target offensively this evening.

The good news is that Colon is always going to be hittable, and all of Detroit’s lineup comes cheap. For that reason, you can certainly stack them up here and hope for good fortune in GPP formats. In cash games, I’ll stick with Goodrum from the (likely) five spot in the order.

Keep Firing Him Up at Home against LHP

The Diamondbacks disappointed last night as a popular offense to target against a weak left-handed pitcher, but all that will do is serve to lower their ownership tonight against Lucchesi. While Lucchesi is reasonably skilled and has pitched well in his last few starts, I’m not completely sold just yet. There have been many hiccups along the way, and the walks are still an issue. I like Arizona as a sneaky offense tonight, with Paul Goldschmidt leading the way. His poor start to the season is a distant memory at this point, as Goldy owns a .352 ISO and .430 wOBA against lefties despite that poor start to the year.

The Best Point Per Dollar Option from the Top Offense

This is far and away the top spot for upside at the plate tonight. Boston’s offense obviously has all the talent in the world, and now they get a matchup against a rapidly declining pitcher in Jason Hammel, whose 2018 profile looks something along the lines of a horror book. The strikeouts are all the way down to 14.5% this year, his ground ball rate is in the tank, and he’s allowing hard contact nearly 46% of the time. Yowza. Both lefties and righties can hit him hard, so you can certainly stack up all the Red Sox tonight.

I am highlighting Mitch Moreland as my core play in LineupHQ, but it’s a tough call with all of the high-end bats here. Moreland is a little more cost-effective than the likes of Betts or Martinez, and he has more power potential than Benintendi. Moreland owns a .385 wOBA and .259 ISO against RHP this year, which is plenty good against a pitcher like Hammel.