DFS Alerts
Still Plenty Of Aces
Before Jacob deGrom was scratched, I was comfortable sticking with one Core Pitching option up top, but now I want split exposure to Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. The great matchup for Cole boosts him up, but I still can’t overlook the incredible strikeout run that Bauer is on. In his last eight starts he has reached double-digit strikeouts six times and has a remarkable 67 K’s in his last 42 innings. Over the past month, his 38.6% K rate is a more than 6% higher than the next closest pitcher on this slate, and 9% ahead of Cole. This is my favorite GPP ace tonight.
Rare instance the Yankees are below five implied runs at home, but middle of the order still plays
It takes a quality pitcher for Vegas to hold the Yankees below five runs at home and tonight, their implied line is 4.91 currently against a pitcher who struck out eight in five shut out innings at Yankee Stadium earlier this year. Eduardo Rodriguez also has a bit of a reverse split (LHBs .304 wOBA, RHBs .334 since last year), that should help him in this spot. That said, these Yankee bats bring the thunder and the middle of the lineup is certainly not off the board at all. Giancarlo Stanton (220 wRC+, .463 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is as big a threat against southpaws as there is in the league. Aaron Judge (114 wRC+, .194 ISO) actually hits RHP better, but is still plenty formidable. Aaron Hicks (132 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (164 wRC+, .268 ISO) bump up to leadoff and fifth against the lefty.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Eduardo Rodriguez, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks
Still Plenty Of Aces
Jacob deGrom was going to be my cash game ace, but it’s a pretty easy pivot to Cole in cash, and Bauer in tournaments. While Cole has not been in top form, he gets a fantastic matchup in Tampa against a lineup with a 23% K rate, .121 ISO and .309 wOBA. The only real issue for Cole is home runs from his high fly ball lean, and there just isn’t much here to hurt him. Every dollar matters tonight, and the slight savings from Bauer to Cole is useful in cash games, so I’ll lean towards my Cole exposure in cash with Bauer’s strikeouts in the riskier matchup in tournaments.
Left-handed Miami bats are viable with the pitching change for the Mets
Cory Oslwalt will start for the Mets tonight and needless to say, that’s a tremendous pitching downgrade and puts the two competent Miami left-handed bats back on the board. Justin Bour (148 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Derek Dietrich (129 wRC+, .211 ISO) are not priced any lower for the matchup with deGrom, but both are decent values against Oswalt, who has struck out four of 18 batters faced at the major league level, but also had a 14.8 K-BB% in 10 AAA starts this year after a similar mark (14.4%) in 24 AA starts last night.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Corey Oswalt Daily Bullpen Alert: The worst bullpen may not be an attack spot tonight, but is one of the best enough reason to move off top bats?
With 28 of the 30 teams on tonight’s slate, it shouldn’t be too hard to figure which bullpens to pick on and avoid. There three teams with a 4.99 or worse FIP and single digit K-BB% over the last 30 days. The Mets (6.18, 8.3%) have Jacob deGrom on the mound against the Marlins, which rules out this area of attack. The Royals (5.41, 5.6%) just traded away their closer and are looking for Ian Kennedy to get them deep into the game in Seattle. He has averaged just 5.1 innings per start. This is a decent spot to target inferior arms despite the negative run environment. The Rockies (4.99, 6.5%) are also in a negative run environment, but facing a tough Dodger offense behind Tyler Anderson’s 5.1 innings per start as well. Wilmer Font, Nick Blackburn, Rich Hill and Felix Pena are all either not fully stretched out or have not performed well enough to pitch deeper into games. The Rays (3.60, 13.3%) have a low FIP, but low K-BB% over the last month as well, while the A’s (4.29, 17%) are high in both spots where the difference is likely home run prevention (or lack of it for Oakland). The Dodgers (3.81, 13.2%) appear a middling pen too over the last month. The Angels are interesting because they have a 13 K-BB% too over the last 30 days, but with a 5.38 FIP that’s worse than all but the two teams mentioned above. As usual, the Yankees (2.34, 24.6%) and Astros (2.17, .28.2%) remain the best in the majors. Players aren’t attacking Gerrit Cole anyway, but it could be interesting for some Boston bats against C.C. Sabathia.
There's some strikeout upside below $10K tonight if players can embrace some risk
Nick Pivetta (28.6 K%) and Eduardo Rodriguez (26.1 K%) are the only two pitchers above a 24 K% (more than two starts), who cost less than $10K. Pivetta doesn’t miss that price by much, but he has struck out 20 over his last two starts and his .280 xwOBA over the last month is 74 points below his actual mark. The Nationals have most of their bats back, but appear to be a bit rusty (69 wRC+, 25.5 K% and 4.1 HR/FB over the last week). Rodriguez costs $8.1K on either site, but has the toughest matchup on the board (Yankees 122 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 19.1 HR/FB vs LHP all split bests on the board). He did fare well against the Yankees in that park earlier in the season (5 IP – 1 H – 0 ER – 3 BB – 8 K) and his .291 xwOBA is fourth best on the board with every pitcher above him costing more than $10K. Joe Musgrove has allowed 11 ERs over his last 8.1 innings, but otherwise has a 21 K% and .301 xwOBA in his six starts this season with quality contact management (86.5 mph aEV, 5.7% Barrels/BBE). The Padres (81 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP) and Petco are the cure for many RHP ailments. Musgrove costs less than $8K on either site. Marcus Stroman returned from the DL from a six week absence to throw five shutout innings at the Angels with five strikeouts. He’s always had trouble with hard contact, but generally keeps that on the ground (59.8 GB% career) with a league average strikeout rate (19.7% career). If he’s truly healthy for the first time this year, a price below $6.5K is truly a bargain against the Tigers. It’s a shot certainly worth taking in GPPs. Marco Gonzales and Miles Mikolas have league average strikeout upside at their best (Gonzales perhaps a bit more with Mikolas the better contact manager), but both will give you innings in negative run environments. Gonzales is in a great run prevention spot against the Royals, while Mikolas hosts the Braves (95 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Musgrove, Marcus Stroman, Miles Mikolas, Marco Gonzales Four high priced pitchers above a 30% strikeout rate tonight, one in a great spot
There are four high end pitchers tonight, all above a 30% strikeout rate. Three of the four reach $11K on FanDuel and $13K on DraftKings. Jacob deGrom (31.4 K%) has the top swinging strike rate on the board (15.4%) by nearly a full point over Patrick Corbin (14.5%). He also has the lowest xwOBA on the board (.258) by 20 points and the lowest Barrels/BBE (2.9) by over a full point as well. The party doesn’t end there though, because he’s facing the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP). He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but second on FanDuel. Trevor Bauer has double digit strikeouts in six of his last eight starts with a 38.6 K% over the last month that tops the board. He’s recorded a seventh inning out in 11 of 16 starts this year. His .278 xwOBA is second best on the board and he’s even managing contact decently this season (87.3 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE). He gets a significant park upgrade in Oakland tonight, but the home team is tough (107 wRC+, 25.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and don’t strike out a ton against RHP (22.2%). Gerrit Cole hasn’t accumulated double digit strikeouts in nearly two months, but does have exactly eight in five of his last seven and fewer than seven only twice this year. His numbers over the last month (29.6 K%, 3.7 ERA and SIERA, .321 xwOBA) are a decline from the start of the season, but that’s still a quality pitcher in a nice spot in Tampa Bay (14.5 K-BB% and 10.1 HR/FB against RHP). However, the price demands dominance tonight. Patrick Corbin has very similar Statcast numbers to Cole over the last month (.321 xwOBA that’s just a bit more than 40 points above their actual wOBAs over that span). However, he did strike out 12 in his last start and his 32 K% over the last month is the same as his season rate. The Giants do strike out a bit less against LHP (22.6%), but they’re still below average (94) and if we consider Arizona a neutral park now, this is not a bad spot, but may still be the worst of the four. The upside is that he has the ability to match the numbers of any other pitcher on the board for a single start and costs $1-2K less.
Other tagged players: Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin Average Guy
Along with STLCards, Joe Musgrove and Rich Hill are my two favorite SP2 options on multi-starting pitching sites. I still consider Hill more of a GPP option due to an injury riddled 2018 season which makes Musgrove the de facto cash game choice. Musgrove’s metrics won’t wow you – 3.98 SIERA, 21 K% – but it’s a good matchup for the Pirates young righty against a Padres offense that owns the third highest strikeout rate in the league versus RHP (24.6 K%) and a bottom third wRC+ (90).
Third Times a Charm?
Rich Hill has made it through two starts without being removed from the game due to a blister – dare he make it three on Friday night? While unreliable, Hill showed his last two full seasons that he has plenty of fantasy upside as he posted strikeout rates of 29.4% in 2016 and 30.1% in 2017. Hill hasn’t been able to replicate that success yet this season but he’s only pitched 35.2 IP and still posted a league average strikeout rate (22.2 K%) over that span despite some obvious struggles. Hill’s matchup is a good one against a below average Rockies offense removed from Coors. Hill probably still makes for a better GPP option than cash game option.
Cheap Pop
With Steve Pearce shipped to Boston and out of the picture there’s a chance Randal Grichuk finds himself in a favorable spot in the Blue Jays order on Friday night. Grichuk will have the platoon advantage against Francisco Liriano and has shown good power against lefties over the course of his career (.217 ISO). The Blue Jays have one of the stronger team totals of the slate (5.3 and rising) and Grichuk offers a way to get exposure to a favorable offensive environment for cheap.
Nothing Special
There’s nothing special about Avisail Garcia as he’s a largely average offensive player (well below average in a limited sample this season) but he is 1) Cheap 2) Will play in near 100-degree weather in Arlington 3) Faces Yovani Gallardo. Perhaps the last point is the most important one as a favorable matchup against Gallardo at this stage in his career would make Garcia a strong pt/$ play regardless of where the game was being played. Nonetheless, the weather in Arlington can only be viewed as a positive and Garcia should continue to bat toward the top of the White Sox order. Garcia can be rostered for a measly $2,400 on FanDuel and should be a staple of lineups there – he’ll be a little lower owned on DK/FDRAFT but is a strong play on those sites as well.
Same Handed Success
Ian Kinsler is cheap enough (especially on DK/FDRAFT) where he can be considered a “value” play on Friday’s slate. To go along with a huge park shift in his favor, Kinsler and the Angels get one of the top matchups of the night as they’ll square off against David Hess in Camden. Hess is the owner of a bloated 5.58 SIERA and has a walk rate (9.4 BB%) that almost matches his anemic strikeout rate (13.3%). Kinsler has had significantly more success against same handed pitching this season and has hit 10 of his 11 HRs on the year against righties.
A Team To Target
The White Sox are popping on my list tonight with a trip to Texas to face Yovani Gallardo. This is a guy who had a 5.42 ERA and 5.34 SIERA in 2016 and a 5.72 ERA and 5.27 SIERA in 2017, and is back looking like more of the same. Every part of this lineup is in play, but on FanDuel, Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada are standout values at just $3,300 each. Moncada gains value when facing low strikeout pitchers, where his power outweighs his strikeout risk, and he also gains on base and run scoring upside against a pitcher with bad control.
A Team To Target
The White Sox are popping on my list tonight with a trip to Texas to face Yovani Gallardo. This is a guy who had a 5.42 ERA and 5.34 SIERA in 2016 and a 5.72 ERA and 5.27 SIERA in 2017, and is back looking like more of the same. Every part of this lineup is in play, but on FanDuel, Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada are standout values at just $3,300 each. Abreu should see runners on base and has by far the highest contact rate of any batter at the top of this lineup with power and RBI upside.
A Team To Target
The White Sox are popping on my list tonight with a trip to Texas to face Yovani Gallardo. This is a guy who had a 5.42 ERA and 5.34 SIERA in 2016 and a 5.72 ERA and 5.27 SIERA in 2017, and is back looking like more of the same. Every part of this lineup is in play, but on DK/FDRFT, Avisail Garcia looks like the best value to be able to get exposure to a quality hitter without breaking the bank. He looks healthy with a hit in each of his six games since coming off the DL and two home runs. He should hit near the top of the lineup and will get hittable pitches from Gallardo, who has just a 15.8% K rate to righties since the start of 2017.