DFS Alerts
Top pitcher for less than $10K with potentially favorable conditions at Wrigley
If players are looking to save a bit off of Corey Kluber, Ross Stripling may be the top value on the board. He remains below $10K on either site in a tough spot at Wrigley (104 wRC+, 11.2 K-BB% vs RHP), but has a 32.2 K% (13.2 SwStr%) with a 2.22 SIERA and .196 xwOBA over the last 30 days. His .229 xwOBA is the lowest mark on the board by more than 50 points. He’s gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs. Batters from either side of the plate have both a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 against him since last year with a sub-30% hard hit rate. Kevin’s early forecast also calls for cooler temperature with a light wind blowing in, further favoring pitching in this game. Despite every batter in the Chicago lineup at a 105 wRC+ or higher against RHP over the last calendar year and five of them above a .200 ISO against them over that span, it’s difficult to find a batter worth liking against Kersh…uh, Stripling.
He Sort Of Back
Pitching drops off in a hurry tonight after Charlie Morton, and while Gio Gonzalez is next based on pricing, I much prefer the skills and matchup for David Price in Minnesota. The Twins just aren’t a good team against left-handed pitching with the league’s 5th highest strikeout rate and 27th ISO against lefties. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 24.4% K rate with a .105 ISO and .297 wOBA against lefties. Since his brief DL stint in early May, Price has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his last seven starts, and his strikeout rate is up to 27.7% over the past month. The Price Is Right.
He's Just Cheap
There is nothing outlandishly fantastic about Alex Gordon, but if he’s batting 2nd tonight at this salary against Austin Bibens-Dirkx, this is too good a salary to pass up on. In 155 PA against left-handed batters since last season, Bibens-Dirkx has a ridiculous 9% strikeout rate with no ability to control batted balls. With that low of a strikeout rate we are going to be seeing balls in play tonight, and Gordon has enough hard hit ability to do something with it, and he should have runners on base around him. He’s an easy way to help fit in some more expensive pieces.
The best and worst of the afternoon can be found in Cleveland
In Cleveland this afternoon, we find both the highest (5.17) and lowest (2.83) implied run lines on the board, by more than a half run in each direction. Corey Kluber failed to finish six innings and allowed more than three runs both for the first time this season last time out against the Twins, with a season low three strikeouts. His velocity was at a season low as well. The thing to do right now is treat it as an outlier and recognize that he’s still the best pitcher on the board (26.9 K%, 2.87 SIERA, plus a .235 xwOBA at home since last season) in the best spot (White Sox 18.2 K-BB% vs RHP). His price tag drops all the way to $12.6K on DraftKings today. He’s at least $2.5K more than any other pitcher on the afternoon slate on either site. On the other side, LHBs have a .356 xwOBA against Reynaldo Lopez since last season. While it’s hard to find an unplayable bat among the first seven Indians in the batting order, Jose Ramirez (160 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Francisco Lindor (123 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Michael Brantley (141 wRC+, .208 ISO) are the top bats this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley FanDuel Price Is Nice
On FanDuel, Dominic Smith is $3,000 against a right-handed pitcher in Coors. With Jay Bruce going to the DL, I would think Smith hits around 5th or 6th in this lineup tonight, and on a slate with very limited value plays, Smith makes a lot of sense in this matchup. Bettis has a .293 wOBA with a .201 ISO against left-handed hitters. Outside of Coors, Bettis is not bad, but I don’t mind attacking him in Coors Field. Smith has a 162 PAs since the start of 2017 against righties, and he has a .211 ISO with a .436 CXwOBA.
The Top Skills In The Top Spot
At his salary, especially on DK/FDRFT, I won’t call Brandon Nimmo a 100% must play, but he is the top option on the Mets, who are my top overall team on the board in all formats. The lone skill for Chad Bettis this season is ground balls to left-handed batters, and Nimmo makes up for that with a big 48% fly ball rate and 38% hard hit rate leading to a team leading .346 ISO and .454 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
The Best We Have Tonight
I do not feel warm and fuzzy about the way Morton has looked over his last few starts, but we just don’t have better options tonight. This is an ideal matchup at home against the Rays. With Morton’s huge strikeout numbers against lefties and ground balls and soft contact to righties, there are a lot of paths to success here. I am nervous about the walks in the past few starts, but this is easily the highest upside pitcher on the slate tonight.
Don't Let The wOBA Fool You
Like the pitchers on this slate, we don’t have a lot of value hitting options tonight. I’m going to turn to the Royals for salary relief. Not only is there a pitcher we can attack on the mound, but we have a catcher that we can attack as well. Kiner-Falefa is set to catch tonight, and this will be his first time catching a Major League game. Alex Gordon should hit second tonight, and while his numbers are down, he still has a .463 CXwOBA, which is almost the same as what Moustakas has against right-handed pitching. Since the start of 2017, Bibens-Dirkx has a .339 wOBA with a .187 ISO allowed against left-handed hitters.
Recently struggling pitcher faces a hot offense in Philadelphia
Since Michael Wacha’s eight innings of one-hit ball, he’s allowed 10 ERs over 9.2 innings with four HRs, seven walks and eight strikeouts (48 batters faced). Most of the damage was done by the Cubs in his last start. In fact, it snapped a string of 10 straight starts of two runs or less. Even with that beating, his strikeout rate and estimators are around league average this year, though his .361 xwOBA is surpassed by only a few pitchers for the entire day. The Phillies have a 94 wRC+ and 26.6 K% vs RHP, but a team 129 wRC+ and 19.7 HR/FB over the last seven days. Both Rhys Hoskins (141 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Odubel Herrera (128 wRC+, .194 ISO) exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs actually have a wOBA 31 points higher than LHBs against Wacha since last season, though LHBs jump 46 points to a 16 point lead using xwOBA.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Michael Wacha Jake Arrieta is allowing a lot of runs, but still keeps the ball on the ground
Jake Arrieta has been almost stubborn about throwing his sinker 60% of the time despite just an 11% whiff rate and major complaints about a Philadelphia defense with a -7.4 UZR/150 and .301 BABIP allowed. As a result, his own .281 BABIP is his highest since Baltimore and he’s allowed 18 runs (13 earned) over his last 14.2 innings with just nine strikeouts. The problem for the Cardinals is that he still keeps RHBs grounded. They have a .290 wOBA against him this year with a 56.9% ground ball rate. LHBs are just a bit better (.302 wOBA, 55.4 GB%), but they do have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year with just a 45 GB%, which opens up a case for Matt Carpenter here (125 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). While the Cardinals actually have four LHBs in the lineup today and their RHBs hit RHP fairly well, this is still a below average offense (95 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP). Arrieta is just $6.8K on DraftKings and is obviously not nearly as bad as has been the case over his last three starts. He’s an interesting SP2 option, but one who may be without a lot of upside.
Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta It's Really Come To This?
When looking at this slate, we don’t have a lot of options in the mid to low tier for pitching. I think both pitchers in this game are in play, and like I mentioned with Chad Kuhl, there is a really good pitcher’s ump in this game. Suter has pitched well this season and has just enough strikeout ability to be in play here. He should face six righties and the pitchers spot tonight. He also has a .334 wOBA with a .208 ISO against righties this season. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. Suter has a 20.5% soft contact rate with an average exit velocity of 83.4 and a much lower xFIP than ERA. You always worry about the home runs when it comes to Suter against righties, but outside of Marte, these righties have shown any power this season.
Blue Jays have the second highest run line on the board vs pitcher with lowest exit velocity
Though it was the Padres, Anibal Sanchez threw seven shutout innings in his last start. His ERA is two runs below his estimators this season due to a .206 BABIP and 90.3 LOB% through 37.1 innings, but with a league average strikeout rate, those estimators are still league average, right around four. In addition, he has a .296 xwOBA with an 83.6 mph aEV that’s lowest on the board for the entire day. With Curtis Granderson out of the lineup, he’s an interesting SP2 candidate for $7K. The Blue Jays still have the second highest implied run line on the board at 4.56. There’s certainly some merit towards exposure to Teoscar Hernandez (137 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Just Smoak (111 wRC+, .227 ISO) up top. Randal Grichuk (122 wRC+, .313 ISO) is a sneaky value play as well. RHBs have a .377 wOBA against Sanchez since last season, though xwOBA drops that to .338.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, Anibal Sanchez Not A Lot Of Options
We know the story with Chad Kuhl by now: he’s really good against righties but struggles with lefties. We don’t have a lot of value options on this 7-game main slate, and that’s why I’m looking at Kuhl. You HAVE to look at the Brewers lineup when it comes out, but if Shaw is still out with the wrist injury, we should have five righties and the pitcher’s spot. Yelich is a good hitter, but not too much of a home run threat with his massive ground ball rate. Thames is the one guy I really worry about, and I hope this ballpark helps Kuhl out. There is a favorable pitcher’s ump in this game, which helps both of these cheap pitchers. Kuhl has enough strikeout upside to make up for a couple of runs in this spot.
J.A. Happ has struggled to miss bats over the last month, has tough assignment this afternoon
J.A. Happ is either the second or third most expensive pitcher on the board this afternoon, but the Braves (119 wRC+, 19.1 K%, 15.4 HR/FB) are a tough assignment and at 3.94 implied runs are more middle than bottom of the board. To make matters more difficult, Happ’s strikeout rate is down to 23.3% over the last month with just a 7.5 SwStr%, while his xwOBA has actually improved (.299 for the season, .261 last 30 days). The upside just may not be there for this pricey arm today. On the other side, Happ has held LHBs to a wOBA and xwOBA at .250 or less, which makes it a rare instance where Freddie Freeman (153 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may not be a good play. He’s been a bit better than average against RHBs as well (wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .305). The Braves have a couple of RHBs that hit RHP extremely well in Ozzie Albies (136 wRC+, .234 ISO) and Kurt Suzuki (182 wRC+, .348 ISO).
Other tagged players: Kurt Suzuki, Freddie Freeman, J.A. Happ Michael Fulmer coming off consecutive strong starts, but Reds still have one of the highest run lines on the board
At 4.46 implied runs, the Reds are actually third best on the board this afternoon against Michael Fulmer, who has struggled at times this season, but is coming off back to back seven inning starts with one run allowed in each. Though batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him since last year, xwOBA brings LHBs up to .330 to go with their 35.6 Hard% and league average ground ball rate againt them. Six of the eight Reds in the lineup today will bat from that side. As usual, Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat. Scott Schebler (99 wRC+, .2228 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (138 wRC+, .222 ISO) compliment in the first half of the lineup with Tucker Barnhart (94 wRC+, .133 ISO) the value play in the second slot.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Michael Fulmer, Tucker Barnhart