DFS Alerts
Home Run Upside
With Jason Vargas taking the hill tonight, I like the right-handed hitters for the Diamondbacks. He has a .376 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 35.9% hard hit rate against righties this season. Vargas relies on his 2-seam fastball and changeup for over 70% of his pitches against righties, and both of those pitches have allowed wOBAs over .400 this season. Murphy has 50 PAs against lefties this season, and he has a .354 ISO with a .405 wOBA with a 48.6% hard hit rate. He should hit fourth, and overall he’s my favorite catcher on this slate.
Crushes These Two Pitches
With Jason Vargas taking the hill tonight, I like the right-handed hitters for the Diamondbacks. He has a .376 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 35.9% hard hit rate against righties this season. He relies on his 2-seam fastball and changeup for over 70% of his pitches against righties, and both of those pitches have allowed wOBAs over .400 this season. In a small sample size against lefties, Ahmed has a .444 ISO with a .650 wOBA against changeups and a .875 ISO with a .969 wOBA against 2-seam fastballs. Overall he has a .271 ISO with a .377 wOBA against lefties this season.
Frankie Montas has thrown 21.2 quality innings in three starts, but with few strikeouts and a major step up in class today
Frankie Montas has allowed a total of three runs over 21.2 innings in his three major league starts this year. However, he’s faced Kansas City (twice) and Arizona, while striking out just 14 (7.2 SwStr%) and not exceeding 99 pitches. While he has a .255 xwOBA and 85.4 mph aEV, he takes a major step up in class against the world champs today. They have just a 4.42 implied run line, but there’s certainly some merit in Houston bats (lineup not released yet) if Montas is over-valued here. While LHBs have a .391 wOBA against him so far, RHBs have a 38.5 Hard% and batters from either side are below a 40% ground ball rate.
Justin Verlander has had some decline over the last month, still easily the top pitcher on the board
Justin Verlander allowed three runs in Texas last time out and his strikeout rate has dropped to 27.9% over the last month with a 3.83 xFIP, but he still has just a .212 xwOBA over that span and is an easy choice if playing this afternoon. He leads the board for the entire day in every major category (32.1 K%, 2.96 SIERA, .230 xwOBA). You’ll have to sacrifice some bats to get there though ($13.1K on DraftKings). Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher (28.9 GB%), who has occasionally been a bit HR prone (though just six allowed this year), so Khris Davis (138 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a reasonable shot to take with a 189 wRC+ and 66.7 Hard% over the last week, but in a negative run environment and power suppressing park, Oakland exposure would not be recommended.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis Mike Clevinger is still getting deep into games, but with reduced peripherals over the last month
Mike Clevinger has pitched into the seventh inning in eight of 13 starts and has failed to pitch into the sixth just once this year. After that, the results are have been variable. His ERA and estimators are all well above four over the last month with just a 7.6 K-BB%, but a league average .315 xwOBA over that span that’s right in line with his season .309 rate. Despite the peripherals, he does seem to be managing contact well. While he has a fairly sizable standard platoon split since last season (RHBs .275 wOBA, LHBs .320), over this four start span, RHBs have a .358 wOBA with three HRs and a 41.5 Hard%. Jose Abreu (139 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be interesting here. Yolmer Sanchez (108 wRC+, .176 ISO) is in the leadoff spot with Moncada out today.
Other tagged players: Yolmer Sanchez, Mike Clevinger Carlos Rodon had a strong season debut, may not have much of a platoon split anymore
Carlos Rodon struck out seven of 25 Red Sox, but allowed two HRs in his season debut. While he had more problems with RHBs earlier in his career, since last season, batters from either side are right around a .330 wOBA and league average hard hit and ground ball rates. When healthy and able to throw strikes, he’s a quality pitcher and he costs a reasonable $6.3K on either site. This Cleveland offense has a 4.5 implied run line though. Jose Ramirez (175 wRC+, .299 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (152 wRC+, .202 ISO) have destroyed LHP over the last calendar year. Yan Gomes (131 wRC+, .233 ISO) isn’t far behind. Rajai Davis (72 wRC+) is just $2.1K in the second spot with some great stolen base prospects should he be able to reach base.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes, Rajai Davis Two struggling pitchers coming off a rare strong start face off in Detroit
The Tigers and Twins both have implied run lines within 0.08 points of 4.5 implied runs each with two struggling pitchers on the mound. Michael Fullmer did throw seven one-run innings with seven strikeouts against the Indians last time out, but had allowed nine runs in 9.1 innings in his previous two outings and now has just a 20% strikeout rate both on the season and over the last month. Statcast sees his xwOBA 31 points above his actual .302 wOBA against LHBs since last season. Eduardo Escobar (131 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .278 ISO) have been destroying RHP over the last calendar year. Logan Morrison (113 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Brian Dozier (110 wRC+, .203 ISO) have handled them well as well. Lance Lynn is also coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven and walking just two Angels through six four-hit, one-run innings. He allowed just a run in his previous start too, but with five walks. He still has a 14.2 BB% on the season, though both his walk (10.8%) and strikeout (21.8%) rates have decreased over his last seven starts. Lynn has major platoon issues. LHBs have a .355 wOBA (.364 xwOBA) against him since last season. Considering the control issues, Leonys Martin (114 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great bet to reach base and score a run today. He has a 188 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Leonys Martin, Lance Lynn, Michael Fulmer Skills Too Good To Ignore
Catcher is a tough position on DK tonight, and John Ryan Murphy stands out as the top option at a fair salary. The 2018 sample size against lefties is still relatively small at 50 PA, but this guy has a .354 ISO, .405 wOBA and 48% hard hit rate against lefties with five home runs. This is a new level, but he has always been better against lefties with a career 36% hard hit rate and .188 ISO. The Diamondbacks should be able to get something done against Jason Vargas, and if Murphy finds himself in the middle of the lineup, he should have runners on base around him.
Vince Velasquez has the second highest strikeout rate on the board today
Vince Velasquez has a 28.3 K% that’s second for the entire day only to Verlander. His .294 xwOBA is also second on the afternoon behind Verlander among those with more than a few starts. He’s in a great spot against a Colorado lineup without Arenado that has just a .301 wOBA, .148 ISO and 22 K% against RHP this year, according to PlateIQ. He has had significant issues with LHBs (.379 wOBA since last season), but with an xwOBA 40 points lower than his actual. Charlie Blackmon (139 wRC+, .280 ISO) is a reasonable play if you can afford him. Velasquez is the second most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel early slate that does not include Verlander, but costs just $7.1K on DraftKIngs.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon Searching For Upside
There aren’t many pitchers on this slate that can get 15+ points. German may be one of them, as he has a 3.76 xFIP with a 28.9% strikeout rate this season. He’s struggled at times, and his wOBA is .350 against righties while his ISO against lefties is .231. He’s young and we don’t have a large sample size on him, but we do know that he has some good strikeout stuff. The projected lineup for the Rays has a 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Keep Loading Up Here
This is a tough spot for Tyson Ross tonight with his splits against left-handed batters. Nick Markakis has an incredible 6.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. To be able to maintain that elite of a contact rate along with hard hit ability makes him a strong play in all formats hitting in the middle of a lineup that should have all kinds of runners on base tonight. Markakis should continue to be among the league leaders in RBI and that’s what I’m looking for tonight.
Best of the Best
There are a few hitters to consider spending on tonight, but Freddie Freeman tops the list for me. He faces Tyson Ross, who has below average skills against left-handed batters this season. He is likely to get runners on base ahead of him, and can do damage in mutiple ways. He has elite plate discipline with more walks than strikeouts against righties, big power with a 50% hard hit rate and one of the highest line drive rates in the league. Everything lines up here.
German Marquez has been a significantly better pitcher on the road
While the Phillies have a modest 4.35 implied run line that’s in the middle of the board on Thursday afternoon, German Marquez may be this afternoon’s mound bargain, especially where he costs just $5.3K on DraftKings, where he may be an ideal Verlander compliment. Marquez has a 2.06 ERA and 3.38 FIP in 35 road innings this season with a 15.4 K-BB% and more than a five point drop in his hard hit rate. He has a .316 xwOBA and .322 wOBA on the road since last season that’s perfectly league average. Meanwhile, the Phillies offer a lineup that has a combined .293 wOBA, .142 ISO and 27.4 K% vs RHP this season according to PlateIQ. This does not mean that Rhys Hoskins is not a strong value this afternoon for $4.1K or less. He has a 132 wRC+ and .263 ISO career against RHP and Marquez is a bit of a reverse platoon pitcher. RHBs have a .351 wOBA (.328 xwOBA adjusts down for Coors results) with a 37.2 Hard% against him since last season.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins A Game To Get In On
The Mets have been abysmal lately, but this is a get right spot. On a four game slate, there just aren’t a lot of choices and Arizona’s Matt Koch is the most attackable pitcher going tonight. He has the lowest strikeout rate and the highest hard hit rate of the night. Asdrubal Cabrera has a 43% hard hit rate, .230 ISO and .350 wOBA against righties this season and comes in at a very affordable salary on all sites.
I Don't Need A Lot On This Slate
I’ve never really been a fan of Anibal Sanchez, but I do however like his price on tonight’s slate. He comes in with a 21.3% strikeout rate and a -5.6% hard to soft contact ratio this season. It’s a small sample size, but he’s been pitching really well this season. The Mets beat him up in his first start back from the DL, but he’s pitched well against the Nationals and the Dodgers in the two starts since then. With limited options on this slate, I’m going to attack one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Padres are 29th in team wOBA and 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.