DFS Alerts
Marlins have some cheap left-handed value in the lineup against a virtual unknown on the mound for Giants
Not available on the main DraftKings afternoon slate. The Giants at Marlins is one of the least attractive games for daily fantasy purposes anyway. Dan Straily has not exceeded four strikeouts in three starts and has only exceeded five innings in three of his eight starts this year. While batters from either side are below a .280 wOBA against him since last season, xwOBA increases that mark by a bit more than 50 points on each side. RHBs have a 38.4 Hard%, while each side has a GB rate between 32-35%. The top of the San Francisco order has some value on FanDuel, each around the $3K mark. Andrew McCutchen (120 wRC+, .173 ISO) has been the best hitter against same-handed pitching, but nobody in the lineup is above a .175 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year and this is both an extremely negative run environment and a power suppressing park. The Marlins have the second lowest implied run line of the afternoon (3.87), Dereck Rodriguez will be making his third major league start. The first went well. The second was a disaster in Washington. The 26 year-old did have a 19.8 K-BB% in nine AAA starts this season, but just a 10.9 K-BB% in 13 AA starts last year. Derek Dietrich (122 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Bour (143 wRC+, .245 ISO) are nice value plays here for $3.1K or less.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Dereck Rodriguez, Dan Straily, Andrew McCutchen
The Sneaky Stack of the Night
Nobody likes to play the San Diego bats, and I can certainly be included in that camp. However, sometimes you just have to be a little frisky on a short four game slate like this one. There is no way Anibal Sanchez is going to continue to pitch well, and he is only staying in the rotation because of the injury to Mike Foltynewicz. His xFIP and SIERA sit about two full runs higher than his mirage-like ERA, and his walk rate sits at a borderline uncomfortable 9%. The wheels will fall off at some point, and this could be a spot to get a contrarian stack in against him. Hosmer is my favorite play, while I will likely simply stack up the top part of the order, as the bottom part of this lineup gets pretty ugly.
Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe
Stack Up the Lefties
To start this off, Ozzie Albies is my top point-per-dollar play of the night. There are three factors at play here. A) The kid can rake. B) The second base position is barren tonight. C) Tyson Ross has extreme platoon splits, allowing a .364 wOBA to LHBs so far this season, and his velocity has dipped a bit recently. When you add those up, Albies becomes a near must play on this short slate. Factor in the platoon splits, and the Braves lefties become a very interesting GPP stack. The likes of Albies, Freeman, and Markakis are very much in play on the high end, while guys like Camargo and Inciarte can be considered as value options if you need it.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis Top Stack of the Night
The Red Sox are almost always a top stack, especially on a four game slate like this one. While we would have been scared off by a matchup against Felix Hernandez five years ago, that is certainly not the case now. King Felix does not have more than seven strikeouts in any single start this year, he has allowed at least five earned runs in four of his last eight starts, and nothing about his profile is the least bit inspiring at this point. Guys like Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are obvious top plays here, while Xander Bogaerts stands out at a thin shortstop position. You can also get a guy like the scuffling Rafael Devers at a discount, and value is needed on this slate.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi The Best of a Thin SP #2 Group
I’ll likely stick with Snell as my option on FanDuel, and the options are really slim if you are looking for a second starter on the multi-pitcher sites. While I don’t love pairing two pitchers from the same game, it’s less of a concern on a short slate like this one. Domingo German draws a very favorable matchup against the power-starved Rays, and he has also gotten a longer leash with his pitch counts over his last few starts. He flashed some strikeout upside with nine K’s in his last start, and the matchup doesn’t scare me at all. He is a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate, so give him a look as the safest SP #2 option on this ugly slate.
Unquestionably the Top Arm in GPP Formats
It’s time for the young guns to take over in MLB, and there’s no more perfect example than this slate, where Snell’s upside dwarfs that of the aging David Price and Felix Hernandez. He carries a 27% strikeout rate and 13% swinging strike rate with a SIERA and xFIP around three and a half, and that’s good enough to make him quite easily the top arm on this slate. The matchup against the Yankees is terrifying, but I love the upside potential. He pitched six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in a difficult matchup with the Red Sox last month, so hopefully he can put forth a similar effort in a similarly tough matchup here.
Very low level of weather concern on Wednesday night's slate
The forecast has been updated for Wednesday night and there’s a small chance of rain in a couple of spots, but very low overall concern levels. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can stay updated until lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET
Dodgers have been on fire and face a pitcher who has allowed multiple HRs in four straight starts
The Dodgers have been on fire (174 wRC+, 24.3 HR/FB over the last week). They destroyed Bartolo Colon last night and despite having just a 4.21 implied run line against Cole Hamels, it’s certainly worth home run hunting against a pitcher who has allowed multiple HRs in four straight starts. Only Yasiel Puig (77 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Logan Forsythe (104 wRC+, .146 ISO) are below a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. While Hamels has been much better against LHP since last season (.244 wOBA/.298 xwOBA/30.2 Hard%/57 GB% vs .328 wOBA/.352 xwOBA/41.2 Hard%/42.4 GB%), Cody Bellinger (126 wRC+, .272 ISO) hits same-handed pitching extremely well and has a 300 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Yasiel Puig, Cole Hamels Dylan Covey has a 14.2 K-BB% and .286 xwOBA through five starts, including shutting down Boston last time out
The Cleveland Indians currently have a 4.98 implied run line that’s top three on tonight’s board. This certainly makes some sense if you remember that Dylan Covey was terrible last season with a 2.3 K-BB%, generously allowing a .370+ wOBA to batters from either side of the plate. In five starts this year though, he has a 14.2 K-BB% and has kept batters from either side below a .300 xwOBA. He has a .286 xwOBA overall with 2.5% Barrels/BBE (the best on the board), though a 90.3 mph aEV is a lot less encouraging and the highest mark on the board. He’s allowed no more than one run with seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts, including not a single earned run against Boston and Milwaukee over his last two. That’s not to say players should absolutely fade a high powered Cleveland offense tonight, but there is some merit to considering limited exposure to high priced bats here if otherwise paying up for pitching. The top four are so good that it’s difficult to completely ignore Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (144 wRC, .219 ISO), Jose Ramirez (166 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .284 ISO) though.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley Left-handed batters have mauled Tyler Mahle for a wOBA above .400 in his career
Tyler Mahle has a pretty extreme platoon split. LHBs have a .403 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) and 44.4 Hard% (38.2 GB%) with RHBs over 100 points lower in his career. He’s allowed nine HRs to lefties in just 187 batters faced. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t have the firepower to take advantage of this in a power suppressing park, but it is an overall positive run environment and Mike Moustakas (119 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a strong play, especially on DraftKings with a $4.1K cost equal to his price on FanDuel. Even Alex Gordon (81 wRC+, .142 ISO) may be playable under these circumstances for $3K or less.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Tyler Mahle Cardinals offer a high value leadoff bat with one of the highest implied run lines on the board
The first seven batters in the St Louis lineup will be right-handed against Eric Lauer on Wednesday, which means no Matt Carpenter, but an affordable Harrison Bader (186 wRC+, .327 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) in the leadoff spot against a pitcher who has allowed RHBs a .409 wOBA (.371 xwOBA) and 42.6 Hard%. Lauer walked seven batters in his last start and has just two starts (out of nine) with more than five innings, just three with fewer than three runs. The San Diego bullpen behind him has been over-worked, having thrown the entire game on Tuesday and has suffered in quality over the last month. The Cardinals have a 4.9 implied run line near the top of the board. Jose Martinez (209 wRC+, .354 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (202 wRC+, .357 ISO) have been flat out destroying LHP with the latter owning an overall 378 wRC+ (68.2 Hard%) with five HRs over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Jedd Gyorko, Eric Lauer Last night's salary saving superstar is still under $3K against another LHP
Matt Boyd has faltered in recent starts (six ERs, three HRs last two starts, 13 BBs & 13 Ks last four) after pitching pretty well through the middle of May. A .232 BABIP and 6.4 HR/FB has kept his 3.20 ERA well below his 4.82 SIERA and while Statcast supports him with a .305 xwOBA and 5.0% Barrels/BBE (29% 95+ mph EV), a 0.0 K-BB% over four starts makes him difficult to roster in a positive run environment against a team implied for 4.76 runs tonight. This doesn’t mean players must have Minnesota exposure, as Boyd hasn’t been terrible against RHBs since last season (.335 wOBA, .330 xwOBA) and the lineup does not have a lot of right-handed thump. Brian Dozier (140 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Miguel Sano (113 wRC+, .233 ISO) are worth considering as is last night’s salary saving superstar, Ehire Arianza (148 wRC+, .195 ISO), moved up to the seventh spot tonight and still less than $3K.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Matthew Boyd Reds will face a second straight fly ball prone Kansas City pitcher allowing a .350+ xwOBA to batters from either side since last year
The Reds couldn’t get anything going against Ian Kennedy last night, finally breaking through against a weak Kansas City bullpen, Tonight, they’ll face a pitcher of similar quality in Jason Hammel, who has an actual wOBA some 20 to 35 points lower than his xwOBA against batters from either side. The latter puts each within two points of .360 since last year, each with a 35% hard hit rate and plenty of fly balls in a big park that often saves him, though it’s more power than run suppressing. It’s hard to find a poor choice among the first six batters in a lineup Vegas has projected at 4.99 runs tonight (second highest total on the board). Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .447 xwOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be both the top overall bat and value on DraftKings. Scooter Gennett (143 wRC+, .238 ISO) has a similar price tag. Scott Schebler (101 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Jesse Winker (132 wRC+, .165 ISO) are much cheaper on FanDuel. Jose Peraza (69 wRC+, .069 ISO) has a top Stolen Base Rating (available to premium subscribers).
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker, Jason Hammel Sonny Gray has struck out 21 of his last 49 batters faced, faces a Washington lineup at full strength tonight
Sonny Gray is an interesting proposition tonight. He’s averaged just over five innings per start this season, but has struck out 21 of his last 49 batters faced and has allowed just one run over his last 14 innings in Baltimore and Toronto. He costs just $6.9K on DraftKings and has some upside as an SP2 against a Washington lineup with just a 4.1 implied run line. However, the Nationals are back to full strength with a full complement of LHBs (six in tonight’s lineup). Gray has actually been a bit better against LHBs since last year though (.283 wOBA vs .315). It’s certainly acceptable to take shots with the upper half of this lineup at least. The high price tags and lower run line should even make them low owned with Anthony Rendon (132 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) possibly being the most interesting bat.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon Erik Fedde's arsenal could point to a reverse platoon split
The Yankees are the only team on the board above five implied runs tonight. They sit at 5.4 against Erick Fedde, who’s a decently rated prospect in the Washington system (#4 with a 45 FV grade by Fangraphs). Scouts like his curveball and changeup most. Both are reverse platoon pitches, which may help him navigate the left-handed portion of a balanced Yankee lineup tonight that sees the slumping Gregory Bird (-62 wRC+ last seven days) dropped to the seventh spot. It’s not completely absurd to think that Fedde (18.6 K-BB% AAA, 21.7 K-BB% in one major league start this year) could navigate this lineup better than Vegas thinks for five innings tonight, but players will certainly want at least some Yankee exposure as well. It may be the right-handed bats players want though, as keeping with those reverse platoon pitches, RHBs have a .518 wOBA (.446 xwOBA) against him in 21 career major league innings, compared to .339 (.303) against LHBs. Aaron Judge (166 wRC+, .336 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Giancarlo Stanton (131 wRC+, .312 ISO) will likely be well represented anyway, due to the run line. Expensive bats at the tail end of the order like Miguel Andujar (160 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (138 wRC+, .252 ISO) should be much less popular.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Erick Fedde