DFS Alerts
San Francisco lineup boast four bats with a 140 or better wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year
Wei-Yin Chen will face a predominantly right-handed San Francisco lineup (seven of eight position players). Batters from that side have a .342 wOBA against him in limited work since last season, but xwOBA brings that mark down to .315, while Miami may be the most negative run environment in play. This combines to bring the Giants down to 4.19 runs via Vegas tonight, though they still boast four bats with a 140 wRC+ or better and .200+ ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Buster Posey (140 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (143 wRC+, .247 ISO) are top of the lineup guys, but Nick Hundley (172 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Mac Williamson (206 wRC+, .286 ISO) are more towards the bottom.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Wei-Yin Chen, Mac Williamson, Nick Hundley
Jose Martinez has a 403 wRC+ with four HRs over the last week, but is not the top play in tonight's lineup
Jordan Lyles has league average peripherals (14.3 K-BB%) through six starts with ERA estimators and an xwOBA that are not far off from league average this year. He has allowed two HRs in three of his last four starts though and Vegas clearly sees the Cardinals as tonight’s second best offense (4.8 runs) with a decent implied run gap going in either direction towards the highest and third highest projected offenses. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA against Lyles since last season, xwOBA drops RHBs to .314, creating a 50 points split difference. LHBs additionally have a 37.5 Hard% and 42.6 GB% against him since 2017. Matt Carpenter (133 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top overall play and value tonight for $3.7K or less on either site. RHBs Tommy Pham (138 wRC+, .189 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (127 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Jose Martinez (136 wRC+, .186 ISO) are all fine plays from the right-hand side. Martinez has a 403 wRC+ and 79 Hard% over the last seven days with four HRs.
Other tagged players: Jordan Lyles, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna Baltimore lineup has fourth best implied run line without Manny Machado against unpredictable knuckleball
The Orioles have a 4.41 implied run line tonight that’s’ fourth best on the board. The big questions is…why? While RHBs have a wOBA against Steven Wright 51 points higher than LHBs since last season, xwOBA closes that gap to five points with batters from both sides a bit below .350. That’s a beatable pitcher, but this Baltimore lineup, now lacking Manny Machado, has just three batters above a 91 wRC+ against RHP since last year and nobody above a 113 wRC+ or a .195 ISO. Who even knows if those numbers apply against knuckleballers though? Adam Jones (110 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) may be a reasonable roster for $3.5K or less tonight. The only batter in the lineup above a league average hard hit rate over the last week has been Chance Sisco (152 wRC+, 60 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Chance Sisco, Steven Wright Daily Bullpen Report: Don't mess with the Mariners
Seven of tonight’s 16 starters average six or more innings per start this year, which is a large percentage. Just four average 5.1 IP or less per start and one of those doesn’t really count because Ryan Yarbrough has only actually “started” three times and has exceeded five innings in four straight outings. The most potential for bullpen work is behind Wei-Yin Chen, Lucas Giolito and Wade LeBlanc. Chen is backed by a bullpen with a 5.00 FIP that’s third worst in baseball over the last 30 days and a 4.7 K-BB% that’s somehow only second worst (Orioles 3.1 K-BB%). Giolito easily has the worst numbers of any pitcher on the board, so bullpens should change the decision making process much, though the White Sox have a 3.46 FIP and 15.7 K-BB% over the last month that’s not half bad. LeBlanc rarely goes more than five, but that’s not necessarily a good thing for the opposing team. Aside from a reverse split that should help him against the Angels, the Seattle bullpen has a major league leading 2.18 FIP over the last month (19.8 K-BB%) that’s more than a half run better than the next best team.
Jack Flaherty throws lots of sliders and the Padres HATE sliders
If players don’t wish to pay up for pitching, there are a number of interesting mid and even low priced pitchers. Jack Flaherty has allowed 10 runs over his last 10 innings (seven earned) and a HR in four straight starts, but his 26.1 K% is third best on the board and aside from the Padres’ 72 wRC+ and 21.2 K-BB% on the road or their 25.7 K% vs RHP, Flaherty’s slider needs to be considered tonight. He throws it 28.2% of the time. It has a .260 xwOBA, 82.5 mph aEV and 41.2 Whiff%. He should throw that pitch even more because the Padres have a -24.8 wSL that’s second worst in baseball according to Fangraphs. Break that down on a per pitch level and their -1.84 wSL/C is the worst mark in baseball by far. Steven Wright shut out the Tigers for seven innings in his first start and while the knuckleball is always unpredictable, the futility of the Baltimore offense (18.1 K-BB% vs RHP) is not. He costs just $6.2K on FanDuel. Ryan Yarbrough finally gets to start a game. Each of his last four “outings” have lasted more than five innings with a 13 SwStr% in each of the last two. His 27.3% 95+ mph EV is second best on the board among those with more than 25 innings. He costs $6.1K or less on either site (a great SP2 on DraftKings for $5.6K perhaps) and the Blue Jays have just an 88 wRC+ against LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Steven Wright, Ryan Yarbrough One of tonight's top pitchers is probably too cheap in a great spot tonight
Three pitchers reach the $10K mark on DraftKings tonight, though nobody gets there on FanDuel. The Vegas run lines for their opponents are the lowest three marks on the board. Eleven of the other 13 teams are huddled between 3.7 and 4.6 runs on a night where most starters have some appeal. Carlos Carrasco and Patrick Corbin are the one-two punch in terms of cost on either site. Carrasco is in a high upside spot in Chicago (AL) (17.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 28.2 K% last seven days), but has been inconsistent. He’s pitched at least two outs in to the seventh in seven of his 13 starts, but has allowed at least five runs in five of the other six with four strikeouts or less four times in those shorter starts. His 24.4 K% is fourth best on today’s board, his 89.4 mph aEV is second worst. Corbin has not shown a little less upside than April, but still has a board topping 29.9 K% over the last month. He’s allowed four runs or more just twice this season and piled up 18 Ks in those two starts. His .283 xwOBA is best on the board among those with more than three starts. The Pirates don’t offer much upside (9.7 K-BB% vs LHP), but have a -3.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week and Arizona may now be a negative run environment. The most interesting pitcher on the board might be Madison Bumgarner. The Marlins have the lowest implied run line on the board (3.32) and while Bumgarner only struck out three Diamondbacks in his season debut, he otherwise looked good, locating his secondary pitches well, off the center of the plate, while he needed just 82 pitches to complete six innings. The Marlins offer very little power against LHP (9.2 HR/FB) in a tough park (8.5 HR/FB at home) and Bumgarner is still at a discount, especially for just $8.8K on FanDuel. Ninety pitches with similar efficiency could push him through seven tonight with a potential price adjustment on the way in the future.
Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Carlos Carrasco Enigma
UPDATE: Betts was activated from the DL. Bundy takes a bit of a hit but still possesses some upside. // Dylan Bundy is an enigma. He’s tied for the fifth highest swinging strike percentage in the league (14.6%) but also allows the fourth most barrels/plate appearance of any pitcher that has recorded 200+ batted ball events. Bundy’s Jekyll and Hyde nature is also reflected in his fantasy performances – in the last six starts he has a game where he’s put up 46.4 DK points and a game where he’s put up -18.2 DK points. That’s one high ceiling and one low floor. That type of variance isn’t something you can stomach in cash games but is perfect for GPPs. Many people will overlook Bundy because they see ‘Boston Red Sox’ as the opponent but this Red Sox team isn’t the same without Mookie Betts and the middle of the order has some K’s in it.
High Price, Low Owned
It seems likely that Patrick Corbin will be the lowest owned high priced SP on Monday’s slate with a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates (19.6 K%, 107 wRC+ vs LHP) in Arizona. People seem to easily forget just how good Corbin has been this year – he’s the owner of a gaudy 32.7% strikeout rate and ninth best swinging strike percentage (13.8%) among starters. Madison Bumgarner has the better matchup against the Marlins but it’s only his second start after returning from the DL. Corbin should have the longer leash and he possesses the higher upside between the two.
Power Stack
It’s hard to fully admit when you are flat out wrong on a player. That may be me with Junior Guerra. There’s certainly a chance that Guerra is at least an above average Big League starter but I still refuse to believe it. There’s nothing too wonky that jumps out when looking at Guerra’s advanced stats – sure his 2.83 ERA is inflated (4.13 SIERA) and sure he’s been a bit lucky on balls in play (.261 BABIP) and stranding runners (81.8%) but he doesn’t stand out as a blow up candidate. His batted ball profile is solid and he maintains around league average strikeout stuff (22.7 K%, 9.7 SwStr%). With all of that said, regardless of if you view Guerra as a league average pitcher as his advanced stats would suggest, or as a below average pitcher as my gut and his 2017 numbers suggest, this remains a good power spot for Cub hitters. The Cubbies are my favorite pivot stack off of the Indians and could be relatively low with Cleveland garnering all the attention.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ Chalk Stack
Lucas Giolito may be the worst pitcher to still be a part of a Big League rotation. Giolito is the owner of an outrageous 6.35 SIERA and has the second highest xWOBA (.396) of pitcher’s that have faced at least 250 batters. The Indians are going to be chalk and for good reason. They are an expensive stack but there is a chance some value opens up if Encarnacion and Kipnis remain out of the lineup. Guys like Greg Allen, Yonder Alonso and Lonnie Chisenhall would be the main beneficiaries in the absence of Encarnacion/Kipnis, with the latter two offering strong power upside.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Greg Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall Game Theory Stack
Feeling a little sassy? Try a game theory stack on for size. Short slates inflate ownership percentages and in turn offer a great opportunity to capitalize when chalk fails. On multi-SP sites we could see Carrasco’s ownership in the 60’s. Don’t get me wrong, Carrasco is a great play in a favorable matchup against the White Sox but this is baseball and Carrasco has been hittable at times this year – he’s had a tough time keeping the ball on the ground (41.6 GB%) which is bad for a pitcher that owns a career 12.7% HR/FB (13.3%). He also has had trouble generating soft contact this season (11.9%). A White Sox stack wouldn’t be my go to in Single Entry GPPs but it makes a ton of sense from a game theory perspective if you’re running out multiple lineups.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada Plus Matchup and Plus Skills
Jack Flaherty has been up and down with the strikeouts, but this is a matchup where his upside could shine. Even in the starts where his strikeouts have lagged behind, his solid 6.2% walk rate has given him a solid floor. When he’s faced high-K competition, he has shined, with 13 strikeouts against the Phillies and 9 against the Brewers. He is still young and inexperienced so it’s not without risk, but this salary on this type of slate against the Padres makes him a solid SP2 on DK/FDRFT.
Keep Loading Up Here
There are plenty of good bats on this slate, but it’s hard to look past the Indians as the top spot. Lucas Giolito has been simply horrendous, and there is a beatable bullpen lurking behind him. With all the walks Giolito is handing out, there are bound to baserunners galore in front of Alonso tonight. He has on base, home run and RBI upside for the top offense on this slate.
The Top Offense
The Indians are heads and shoulders above the crowd tonight facing the 7.08 ERA (6.35 SIERA) of Lucas Giolito. Against left-handed batters, Giolito has 14 strikeouts and 25 walks, allowing a .409 wOBA against. Lindor’s plate skills against righties give him on base and run scoring upside, and if Giolito throws him a pitch to hit, he can hit it out with his 43% hard hits and .264 ISO leading to 11 HR against righties so far this season. All the Indians are in play in all formats, but the shortstop eligibility for Lindor makes him my first choice to spend for.
Stack 'Em Up
Lucas Giolito is one of the most hittable pitchers to take the mound tonight. On the season, he has a 14% strikeout rate and has allowed a .430 xwOBA with a 17% walk rate to left-handed hitters. This should bode well for a left-handed heavy Indians’ lineup that is guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats with this game being played in Chicago. Yonder Alonso is cheap, he should bat fifth, and he sports a .372 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
