DFS Alerts
Lefties in Guaranteed Rate Field
Lucas Giolito is one of the most hittable pitchers to take the mound tonight. On the season, he has a 14% strikeout rate and has allowed a .430 xwOBA with a 17% walk rate to left-handed hitters. This should bode well for a left-handed heavy Indians’ lineup that is guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats with this game being played in Chicago. Francisco Lindor owns a .414 xwOBA against righties and has a nice combination of both speed and power.
Great Spot for a Stack
Lucas Giolito is one of the most hittable pitchers to take the mound tonight. On the season, he has a 14% strikeout rate and has allowed a .430 xwOBA with a 17% walk rate to left-handed hitters. This should bode well for a left-handed heavy Indians’ lineup that is guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats with this game being played in Chicago. Jose Ramirez continues to mash right-handed pitching to the tune of a .421 xwOBA and a .372 ISO.
Low Strikeout Rate With A High Hard Hit Rate
One of the best spots on the slate for hitters is Milwaukee, and I think it’s a spot that will go a little lower owned tonight. With Quintana pitching, I don’t expect a lot of people to target the Brewers. Quintana has allowed a lot of hard contact to righties and his ISO is .186. Braun has a .267 ISO with a 45.9% hard hit rate against lefties this season. The impressive thing about Braun against lefties is his strikeout rate is 7.7%. With the ability to make hard contact and not strike out, I really like his FanDuel price tag.
Elite Matchup at Home
Jack Flaherty struggled a bit in his first major league stint, but seems to have figured it out this season. In seven starts, he has a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6%. He’s pitching at home tonight in a good ballpark and he gets to face the Padres, whose projected lineup has a .265 xwOBA with a 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Road Warrior
Carlos Carrasco has always been a strong play on the road. Over the last few years, he’s had as glaring of home/road splits as any starter in baseball. His numbers a whole are down a bit this season, but he still owns a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 6%. He draws a favorable matchup on the road tonight against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Great Value Option
Matt Carpenter is one of the best plays on the slate, and he’s way underpriced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft tonight. He’s likely going to be one of the highest owned options tonight, but it’s really hard to fade the talent upside at this price. His wOBA and ISO are down a little this season, but he supports a .520 CXwOBA with a 50.9% hard hit rate. He has an 8.6% soft contact rate, and that just shows you how well he’s making contact this season. Jordan Lyles has pitched well this season, but he still gives up a lot of hard contact. At this price, I’m willing to take the talent all day long.
Oops, Wrong Button
The DK/FDRFT salary on Matt Carpenter is one of the more ridiculous pricing errors we’ve seen in a while. He was fairly priced, and just keeps hitting day after day, and somehow gets a huge salary drop because of it. He ranks 5th in all of baseball in hard hit percentage, and against righties this season, he’s sitting on a 51% hard hit rate with a .209 ISO. Jordan Lyles has just a 17% strikeout rate to lefties, and has shown no ability to control batted balls. He has 10 hits in his last six games and even his outs are being caught over the fence (robbed of a HR yesterday).
Offense To Attack In A Lower Total
Chen has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .382 wOBA with a .267 ISO and a 37.5% hard hit rate. He is more of a fly ball pitcher and benefits from this ballpark, but I still want to attack him in this spot. Mac Williamson and Evan Longoria are way underpriced for this matchup on FanDuel tonight, and they’re both under 4k on DraftKings as well. After a down year last season, Evan Longoria has been crushing left-handed pitching this season. He has a .296 ISO with a .374 wOBA and a 48.5% hard hit rate against lefties. Longoria is a big groundball guy and should really benefit from facing a fly ball pitcher tonight.
Offense To Attack In A Lower Total
Chen has struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .382 wOBA with a .267 ISO and a 37.5% hard hit rate. He is more of a fly ball pitcher and benefits from this ballpark, but I still want to attack him in this spot. Mac Williamson and Evan Longoria are way underpriced for this matchup on FanDuel tonight, and they’re both under $4K on DraftKings as well. Williamson has a .294 ISO with a .458 wOBA against lefties in a small sample size this season, but before getting hurt, he was on his way to a career season. He’s starting to look great at the plate again.
Great Spot To Target
I’m not a Jack Flaherty person, but he sets up as a safer option on this slate. We don’t have a lot of options at pitcher tonight, and this is one of the spots I want to attack. Reyes is the only hitter with an ISO over .200 and he only has 50 PAs against righties since being called up. On top of that, only two of the projected starters have a wOBA over .310 against righties this season. The projected starters have a .131 ISO with a .291 wOBA and a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Flaherty has a 3.29 xFIP with a 26.1% strikeout rate this season, and a very good 6.2% walk rate. His issues have been against left-handed power hitters, and we don’t have to worry about that tonight. I like him even more if they have five to six righties in this lineup.
Close Up Top
It’s not a straightforward night for pitching. It is very close up top between Carlos Carrasco and Patrick Corbin. There are reasons to like both, as well as reason for concern. The results have been up and down for Carrasco, but we’ve seen him look like his old dominant self as recently as five days ago with a 10-K outing against the Brewers. While he has had his issues, he has maintained his strong control, with a 5.9% walk rate this season. His matchup against the White Sox is a huge upgrade over Corbin’s matchup against the low strikeout Pirates, and that is enough to swing the tide towards Carrasco for me.
Great Spot On Paper
When looking at the value pitchers on this slate, Sam Gaviglio really stands out to me. In a small sample size, he’s pitched well against right-handed hitters, and should face six right-handed hitters tonight in Tampa. He has a .252 wOBA with a 29.7% strikeout rate against righties this season, and a very impressive 6.1% walk rate overall. The projected starters for the Rays have a .144 ISO with a .314 wOBA and a 21.9% strikeout rate against righties this season. The rookie Bauers has some power along with Cron, but outside of that, there is not a lot of power in this lineup. With the ballpark upgrade for Gaviglio, he’s one of my favorite pitchers on this slate.
Matt Moore continues to sport a career-worst 5.62 xFIP and 46.4% HH% this season
To say that Matt Moore has struggled this season would be a severe understatement, as the veteran left-hander has allowed at least three earned runs in all but one of his 11 games started and has lacked the ability to get out of the fourth or fifth inning on multiple occasions, which has forced the Texas Rangers to utilize their weak middle relievers out the bullpen more often than they likely had hoped. Moore hasn’t faced many left-handed hitters in 2018 since he’s been so awful against right-handed hitters, but he’s been equally, if not, even worse when gaining the platoon advantage over the last two seasons. Moore has recorded strikeout rates of 15.7% to righties and 14.6% to lefties thus far, all while surrendering hard contact at a 44.2% clip against righties and 58.1% against lefties, a recipe that doesn’t indicate any sort of positive regression coming his way in the near or distant future. Those horrendous numbers have all added up to a 5.47 xFIP and 6.58 xFIP, respectively, while his wOBA allowed equates to 0.384 versus righties and 0.516 versus lefties. All this is basically just a long-winded way of saying that Moore is no longer an MLB quality starting pitcher, and a full Houston Astros stack is firmly in play on Sunday’s slates, essentially making the full stack the preferred option in tournament formats. George Springer (0.257 ISO, 0.454 xwOBA, 47.0% HH% vs LHP since 2017) and Alex Bregman (0.247 ISO, 0.388 wOBA vs LHP since 2017) lead the way at the top of the lineup with solid power and on-base ability over the last two seasons versus left-handed pitching, while Jose Altuve (0.375 wOBA vs LHP since 2017) and Evan Gattis (0.247 ISO vs LHP since 2017) closely follow with their respective skillsets against southpaws. Max Stassi has one of the smallest sample sizes facing lefties in the Astros order, but he’s been tremendous when given the opportunity, racking up a 0.276 ISO, 0.487 xwOBA, and 48.8% HH% since 2017, elevating him into tournament consideration at the backend of the Astros order. Attacking Coors Field batter may be the optimal method for cash games on the DraftKings main slate, but don’t sleep on this Houston squad as a likely under-owned stack in tournaments that possesses just as much upside as either team squaring off at Coors this afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Max Stassi, Matt Moore
Sunday's White Sox lineup collectively owns a 24.3% K% and 0.298 wOBA versus RHP since 2017
After a rough stretch that spanned most of May, it appears Rick Porcello has righted the ship to some extent, allowing just two earned runs and pitching into the seventh inning into each of his last two outings. Although the strikeout totals were lacking a bit in these starts, matchups with the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays aren’t exactly spots that are conducive to racking up the punchouts, especially for a pitcher like Porcello that relies so much more on his location than inducing swinging strikes. However, on Sunday afternoon, Porcello receives the added benefit of facing off with the Chicago White Sox at home in Fenway Park, which is a matchup that fits his pitching profile rather nicely. The White Sox rank 26th in total runs, 16th in wOBA, and own the eight-worst strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season, while their confirmed lineup features just two left-handed hitters that own a wOBA higher than 0.312 against righties since the beginning of the 2017 campaign. Not only that, but his advanced metrics indicate that Porcello is currently having one of, if not, his best season in the Majors, as he presently sports career-bests in SIERA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit percentage through his first 13 starts. So while his 22.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% swinging strike rate doesn’t scream massive upside, Porcello arguably has the safest matchup on the entire board this afternoon while possessing a realistic chance of achieving his ceiling at a fair price point across the industry. Because of this, he’s a logical SP2 candidate for all formats on DraftKings and other multi-pitcher sites, but on FanDuel it still doesn’t make too much sense to drop down from James Paxton to Porcello for just a minimal discount, even if he is projected to come in at a lower ownership percentage.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ This Power Bat Keeps Mashing
All eyes will be on Paul Goldschmidt in Coors Field, and for good reason, but Jesus Aguilar quietly keeps mashing if you’re looking for other first basemen to consider. Aguilar now has 11 home runs on the season and the Brewers have scored 12 runs in back-to-back games against the Phillies. Zach Eflin isn’t a horrible pitcher, but this matchup isn’t too daunting. I love the power, ballpark and salary for Aguilar.
