DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alerts: Not many low average innings starters, but some poor bullpens behind them
Eight of tonight’s 28 pitchers are averaging more than six innings per start this year. On the other end, just one (Eric Lauer) is averaging fewer than five innings per start. The San Diego bullpen has been struggling (4.53 FIP, 12.4 K-BB% last 14 days), but faces the Marlins. On the other side of that, Caleb Smith is averaging the second fewest innings per start on the board, just above five. The Miami bullpen has a 5.27 FIP and 8.9 K-BB% over the last two weeks, which is great if players like San Diego bats, but Miami is a tough hitting environment and Smith has shown a reverse split so far. Matt Harvey, Lance Lynn and Brandon McCarthy are the next lowest average inning eaters on the board. The Cincinnati bullpen has also been a mess recently (4.67 FIP, 9.6 K-BB% last two weeks), which is great news for Matt Carpenter backers in an extremely power friendly park. The Twins have a 16.2 K-BB% (3.97 FIP) that’s eighth best in baseball over the last 14 days. The Braves have been middling with a 4.34 FIP and 13.4 K-BB% over that span. A trailing two week or even monthly period may be a more current indicator of overall bullpen strength, considering the high turnover rates for relievers.
Vince Velasquez has a .279 xwOBA just five points higher than Chris Sale this year
There are so many expensive, high upside pitchers on Friday night that some strong potential values below $10K could fly under the radar. Vince Velasquez costs between $8-9K against the Brewers, who have a 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. This should turn a lot of players off. He has the second highest strikeout rate (29.2%) of any pitcher below $10K on both sites tonight and that’s up to 35% with a 13.9 SwStr% over the last month. He’s also walked more than two just twice this year, while his .279 xwOBA this season is just five points behind Chris Sale. Despite the power in the Milwaukee lineup, the overall matchup is not bad (97 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB% vs RHP). Masahiro Tanaka has allowed nine HRs over his last five starts and has just a 20.5 K% over the last month. However, he’s pitched in very few negative run or power environments this season and his SwStr rate (14.1%) remains exactly the same as his season rate over the last 30 days. He’s also facing the coldest offense in baseball. The peripherals for the Mets haven’t been bad, but perhaps in his case, their 4.1 HR/FB over the last week is more important. Walker Buehler’s .256 xwOBA is behind just Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander among those with more than two starts on this board. The main strikes against him tonight are an Atlanta offense with an 11.4 K-BB% vs RHP and a workload that hasn’t seen him reach 100 pitches yet. Caleb Smith has the highest strikeout rate (29.6%) of the under-$10K crowd and that may still have some regression in it. He’s in a nice spot against the Padres (17.5 K-BB% vs LHP), whom he recently threw seven innings against. Zack Greinke’s hard contact issues (10.4% Barrels/BBE) are a concern, but not a death blow in Coors (Rockies (74 wRC+ vs RHP). Additional SP2 types on DraftKings might be Brandon McCarthy, who has had newfound success since changing his pitch mix, though the recent strikeout rate is not supported by his 7.4 SwStr% over the last month. Luke Weaver struggles to go deep in games, but costs less than $8K in Cincinnati. Marco Gonzalez struggles to miss bats, but has been going deep into games consistently. Jhoulys Chacin rarely goes beyond 90 pitches, but his strikeouts are up over the last month (23%) and he finds himself in a high upside spot in Philadelphia (26.9 K% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Walker Buehler, Zack Greinke, Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver, Brandon McCarthy, Marco Gonzales, Jhoulys Chacin Many high end pitchers on Friday, but one may be severely under-priced despite a tough spot
Five pitchers crash the $10K mark on both sites tonight with J.A. Happ additionally reaching that mark on DraftKings alone. It may surprise players to learn that among the teams those pitchers are facing, the Rangers have the highest implied run line (3.7) against the highest priced pitcher on the board (Justin Verlander). It’s then Trevor Bauer, not Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, or Jacob deGrom, who carries the second highest price tag on DraftKings ($11.8K). All six of these pitchers exceed a 29 K% and 11 SwStr%. It’s hard to say there’s a poor choice among the bunch, but the pitcher who’s been pitching the best out of all of them (28 IP – 42 K last four starts) may be in the worst spot. deGrom is facing the Yankees (117 wRC+, 10 BB%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s at home, where they lose a DH and still have some strikeouts in that lineup (23.4% vs RHP). At a cost below $11K on either site, he might be the top value on the board despite the matchup. Chris Sale will certainly give him a run for his money in a spot with enormous upside against his old team (White Sox 27.7 K% vs LHP). However, he’s allowed a HR in four straight and 10 runs total over his last two starts, while the White Sox have flashed some power (16.1 HR/FB vs LHP). While Sale has the matchup advantage, deGrom certainly has the park advantage. Projecting similar overall performances, deGrom is cheaper by $500 or more on both sites. As mentioned, Verlander is the most expensive arm on the board in a difficult park, but against a high strikeout offense (26% vs RHP). He has the top xwOBA on the board (.231). Bauer is in a decent spot an undisciplined (6.9 BB% vs RHP) and low powered (7.6 HR/FB vs RHP) Detroit team, but in a positive run environment against an offense that makes contact (20.8 K% vs RHP). He’s just the fifth highest priced arm on FanDuel, but costs $700 more than Sale on DraftKings. Strasburg has failed to record at least one out in the seventh in just three starts this year. He should not be over-looked. The Giants aren’t bad, but have a 17.9 K-BB% vs RHP. Happ may have the top overall matchup among the top arms. The Orioles have a 19.6 K-BB% on the road, 15 K-BB% vs LHP, and 20.9 K-BB% last seven days.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer, Stephen Strasburg, J.A. Happ Talented Offense in a Hitter-Friendly Ballpark
The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup against Matt Harvey and get to face him in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. On the season, Harvey has allowed a .401 xwOBA to lefties and a .347 xwOBA to righties. He also has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. A Cardinals’ stack is certainly viable here. While the bottom of their lineup can be avoided, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, and Yadier Molina all own a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Plenty of Upside at Potentially Low Ownership
Velasquez is having a breakout season for the Phillies, posting a 3.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He typically flies under the radar in DFS, especially in these large slates. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of my top targets on the board. The Brewers’ projected lineup has a .310 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Number One Pitching Option of the Slate
Sale is my top pitching option on the board, which is really saying something given how many aces are taking the mound tonight. I love Sale because he is always on the attack. Even when he gives up a few runs, he can make up for it with his ability to rack up strikeouts and pitch deep into games. On the season, he owns a 2.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. He doesn’t walk many hitters and he draws an exploitable matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a .305 xwOBA with a massive 30% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Savings In The Outfield
Each site has some very affordable outfielders in good matchups to help you afford the high end pitching. On DK/FDRFT, Josh Reddick stands out going into Texas to face Doug Fister. With the low strikeouts of Fister against the high contact of Reddick we are very likely to get balls in play here. Add to that Fister allowing 43% hard contact to lefties this season and Reddick’s fly ball lean and we have immense upside both individually and from the team context around him.
Triumphant Return
Reddick returned from the DL on Wednesday and finds himself in a prime spot at a cheap price tag on Friday night. Reddick and the Astros will take on Doug Fister and the Rangers at hitter friendly Arlington and Reddick will have the platoon advantage against Doug Fister who has struggled versus LHB throughout his career (.323 wOBA, 4.21 xFIP) and even more-so the last three years. Reddick has a ton of upside at these price tags ($2,600 FD; $3,500 DK).
Bad But Good
I can’t claim to know what Torey Luvullo’s lineup card will look like but regardless of how it unfolds we should be able to mine some value out of the Diamondbacks. Chris Owings, Jarrod Dyson, Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte are beyond terrible offensive players but are all priced $3K or below on DraftKings. Despite being poor offensively, this is still a good spot to invest as the DBacks get a favorable matchup against German Marquez in Coors. The Diamondbacks have the highest implied run total (5.3) on a relatively low scoring slate and all of these guys represent a cheap way to get exposure to a good offensive environment. Jarrod Dyson is my favorite option of the bunch if he gets the leadoff role.
Other tagged players: Jarrod Dyson, Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte Dirt Cheap
Granderson is pretty strictly a platoon player at this point in his career so lucky for us he’ll have the platoon advantage against a bad pitcher in Andrew Cashner on Friday night. Albeit a small sample, Granderson’s numbers this year against RHP (115 wRC+, .188 ISO) align pretty well with his numbers over the last handful of years. Granderson has seen a big reduction in power this year (.255 ISO, .238 ISO last two years) but he still has a little bit of pop left in his bat. This is a good matchup for Grandy and he remains dirt cheap on FanDuel where he’s only $2,500 – he’s a cash game staple there and a strong cash game option on the other sites.
Cheap Plays In An Elite Environment
I’ll come back and update the DK/FDRFT Core Plays after we see the Arizona lineup, but there are going to be at least a couple of way-too-cheap Diamondbacks hitters in Coors Field tonight. Chris Owings, Ketel Marte, Jarrod Dyson and Nick Ahmed are all $3k/$6k or less, and in Coors Field against a pitcher who will allow balls in play, that is just too cheap to pass up.
More Savings In The Outfield
Along with Curtis Granderson, we get another cheap lefty who could be at the top of the lineup against a beatable righty at a low price. Joc Pederson has been showing massively improved plate skills this season, giving him on base upside, and recently his power has been returning, with a 42% hard hit rate over the past month. Brandon McCarthy is OK, but he doesn’t have the stuff to get the ball past Pederson, and if can keep hitting the ball hard with this fly ball lean, there is power and on base upside here.
Site Specific Values
My first objective is paying up for pitching tonight, and with that, we’ll need a few value bats. The outfield has some strong values on FanDuel, starting with Curtis Granderson who hit a leadoff home run last night and will be looking for more of the same tonight against Andrew Cashner and his 46% fly balls and .265 ISO against lefties this season. He has brought his strikeouts up against lefties, but he can only choose between some strikeout ability and home run risk, or what we saw in 2017 when he was aiming for soft contact but with absolutely no strikeout ability. Either version of Cashner gives Granderson upside at this salary.
Do You Dare?
Pitcher: 3.14 SIERA, 26.6 K%, 11.9 SwStr%. Opponent vs RHP: 23.2 K%, 74 wRC+. Strip out all context and this is a well above average matchup for Zack Greinke. Add in 90-degrees and Coors Field and things become a bit dicey. Typically this isn’t even a discussion but the sites did price down Greinke pretty aggressively – he’s priced as SP13 on FD and SP15 on DK. Greinke is far out of the cash game discussion but there is merit to rostering him in GPPs at this price tag.
Average Matchup, Right Price
Here we are again. Garrett Richards comes in priced as SP14 on FD and SP13 on DK. Richards has three starts this season where he’s scored 30+ DK points, including his last outing where he struck out nine Rangers over seven innings. I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but I’ll say it again: the sites continue to mis-price Garrett Richards and his skill-set. Richards will take his 26.9% strikeout rate and 3.85 SIERA into a neutral matchup with the Twins (21.8 K%; 95 wRC+ vs RHP) in Minnesota. The matchup is average but the price is right, which is what makes Richards one of the better pt/$ options of the slate.