DFS Alerts
Not A Lot Of Options In This Range
I’m searching for a cheap pitcher that I like on this slate, and Jose Urena continues to come up for me. This is going to depend a lot on the lineup for the Cardinals, but if they have their typical seven right-handed hitter lineup, I like Urena. He’s posted a .288 wOBA with a .142 ISO and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also has an above average groundball rate, and that usually helps him with his high hard-hit rate. The projected lineup (7 righties lineup) has a .140 ISO with a .312 wOBA and a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There is a lot of power in the top of this lineup, and that’s why this is risky but with that said, there is not many options in this price range tonight.
More Lefties In This Matchup
Alex Cobb is going to allow balls in play, and against lefties he loses his ground ball ability. He has just 13.3% strikeouts to lefties while Cabrera makes solid contact and comes in with a huge 47% hard hit rate against righties this season. Along with Brandon Nimmo, Cabrera is a strong cash game option or part of a top of the lineup Mets mini stack against an attackable pitcher.
Finding Him In Your Lineups
Alex Cobb has the third lowest strikeout rate in the league, and has shown no ability to control batted balls against left-handed batters. On a team with a fully left-handed outfield, Brandon Nimmo stands out as the top hitter this season. He is piling up multi-hit games with elite plate discipline leading to a .470 OBP, .475 wOBA and .344 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Great In Real Life, Good In DFS
The first goal should be to pay up for two top pitchers with upside on DK/FDRFT, but if you need the extra salary for your bats, this is a great matchup for a very good pitcher at a fair price. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but he gets a boost there with the Phillies coming in with the highest K rate in the league against righties. He’s also got the wind blowing in at Wrigley and is the second biggest favorite on the slate. He has proven his ability to outpitch his peripherals with ERA’s of 3.19, 3.03 and 2.13 the past three seasons. He has allowed more than three runs just once in his last 24 starts.
Ace of Aces
There is a lot of good pitching tonight, but Max Scherzer remains in a tier of his own. If there was any cause for concern after his one bad start of the season, he calmed those fears with 12 strikeouts in eight scorless innings last week. He leads the league in strikeout rate at 38.7% and carries the lowest SIERA in the league at 2.26 and has the third lowest ERA at 1.92. He is completely matchup proof, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get a further boost from a good matchup like Tampa. The closest thing he has to a weakness is left-handed power, and that is lacking for Tampa. His 45% strikeout rate against righties should allow him to rack up plenty more strikeouts to add to his ledger.
Attackable Splits
Jose Urena continues to show huge splits with below average strikeouts to lefties and a dangerous amount of hard contact allowed. Since the start of 2017 he has just a 12.7% K rate with 37% hard hits allowed to LHB. His only moderate skill this season is a 50% ground ball rate, and Matt Carpenter is a better hitter against ground ball pitchers, with his 51% fly ball rate and 45% hard hits leading to a .224 ISO against righties.
Affordable Exposure To A Top Offense
The Red Sox are a key team on tonight’s slate, facing a bullpen game against one of the league’s worst bullpens. Detroit will start Artie Lewicki who has made just one career start and has a 15.3% strikeout rate in his first 25 innings in the big leagues. Devers has good power, and is likely to see plenty of runners on base for RBI opportunities. He’s not an elite hitter, this is more about getting a cheap bat in a good lineup. Devers is just the 30th higherst priced 3B on DK, which is a little silly in this matchup.
Zack Godley's sinker and cutter both have a .440 xwOBA against this year
Zack Godley is the highest priced pitcher on the board and may still be one of the top overall arms in a decent spot against a team with a 17.9 K-BB% vs RHP in San Francisco, now without their top bat (Brandon Belt) too. Godley’s curveball still has 38.8 Whiff% and .285 xwOBA, but it’s a reverse platoon pitch and he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup. The main problem here is that his sinker (thrown 33.7% of the time) and cutter (21.8%) each have a .440 xwOBA against. He has a 20% walk rate on PAs ending with the cutter, which has helped strike his overall walk rate to 11.2% this season. His strikeouts and velocity are both down since last season, but that said, there’s not a lot to fear in this San Francisco lineup. Only the first two batters (Joe Panik and Andrew McCutchen) are above a 115 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year and nobody in the lineup exceeds a .175 ISO over the same span. While there has been certain decline in Godley’s game, he’s been a lot more inconsistent than downright terrible and his 21.4 K% this season is best on the board among those with more than four starts this year.
Other tagged players: Zack Godley, Joe Panik
The Royals have just a 17.7 K% vs RHP this year
The Kansas City lineup has not yet been confirmed, but one thing that should be expected is a contact prone bunch tonight. The Royals have a team 17.7 K% vs RHP this season, which lowers expectations for Nick Tropeano, who does have an 11.6 SwStr% this season, but also has an 89.2 mph aEV that’s one-tenth of a point off from the highest mark on the board. Run prevention may not be as much of an issue (88 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a negative run environment as upside for a pitcher that costs $8K or more on either site.
RHBs had just a .281 wOBA against Clayton Richard in May
The standard take on Clayton Richard is that he grounds LHBs nearly 70% of the time (68.9% since last season), but stack up RHBs against him (.368 wOBA, .355 xwOBA, 55.7 GB% since last season). However, something has changed over the last month. He hasn’t thrown a slider more than 100 times in a season since 2012, but now he’s throwing it to batters from either side and why not? It has a 38.8 Whiff% and .269 xwOBA. He’s become a left-handed Tyson Ross. The result: RHBs had just a .281 wOBA, 17.3 K-BB% and 57.7 GB% against Richard in May. His .297 xwOBA over that span is best on the board by more than twenty points. He’s also completed seven innings or better in four of his last five starts. Unfortunately, he has a difficult matchup (Atlanta 120 wRC+, 17.6 K% vs LHP), but he does so in a negative run environment with a cost of $7.2K or less on either site. He may be the best pitcher on this board and is the only one averaging anywhere near six innings per start this year. Players who believe this is a fluke should see Johan Camargo (152 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) as a bargain in the second spot for less than $3.5K on either site tonight.
Other tagged players: Johan Camargo Danny Duffy has allowed a board high 9.8% Barrels/BBE and 40.5% 95+ mph EV and faces an entirely RH lineup tonight
The Angels (4.83) are the only team besides the Yankees (5.54) above four implied runs tonight. They’ll be facing Danny Duffy, who has two straight starts of at least six innings with one run allowed, but he walked as many as he struck out last time out (four) and he’s allowed the hardest contact on the board (9.8% Barrels/BBE, 40.5% 95+ mph EV). He’ll face an entirely right-handed lineup for the Angels tonight. Batters from that side have exactly a .350 wOBA against him since last season with an xwOBA two points higher. Ian Kinsler (102 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Justin Upton (175 wRC+, .351 ISO) make a nice top of the lineup stack.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Danny Duffy Julio Teheran has an 11.9 K% and BB% over his last four starts
Julio Teheran has a high quality matchup in San Diego (82 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP), but his ERA has now crept above four (4.03) and that’s with a .230 BABIP and estimators a run higher. Over his last four starts, he’s walked exactly as many as he’s struck out (11.9%) with a 7.7 SwStr%. He’s allowed five HRs in that span and opposing batters have been above a 50% hard hit rate in each of his last two starts. This may not be a profile players can pay $9.8K for on DraftKings even tonight. LHBs continue to give him fits (.334 wOBA, .362 xwOBA, 37.3 Hard%, 37.6 GB%), which makes Eric Hosmer (159 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) an interesting pivot off of Goldschmidt tonight for GPPs. Travis Jankowski (113 wRC+, .083 ISO) has some speed, but no power. Teheran will face just three RHBs, but they’re right in the middle of the order tonight.
Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski, Julio Teheran Domingo German has the highest strikeout rate (27.5%) and lowest aEV (85.9 mph) on the board tonight
The Tigers will go with their standard lineup at least through the first half of tonight’s lineup. That still should not present much of a problem to Domingo German, as only three batters (Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos and Leonys Martin) exceed and 85 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. All three plus Niko Goodrum exceed a .190 ISO, but none are above .210 and nobody else in the lineup is above a .150 ISO against RHP over that span. German has had nearly a week off since throwing a career high 104 pitches. His 11.4 BB% and the only positive run environment in play are marks against him, but he has the highest strikeout rate on the board over the last month, in which he’s been starting (26.7%). The next highest mark over that span is Clayton Richard’s 21.2%. He also has the lowest aEV on the board tonight (85.9 mph). No other pitcher is below 88 mph. If players are still thinking of rostering Detroit bats, consider that the majority of the Yankee pen is intact, having worked just a single inning behind Luis Severino in the opener today.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin John Ryan Murphy leads baseball (50 BBE min.) with 14.9% Barrels/PA
For some reason, the Diamondbacks have just a 3.69 implied run line against Derek Holland and that must be all about the negative run environment in San Francisco. While Holland has somehow not allowed more than four earned runs in a start, he’s only allowed fewer than three of them three times. His 4.94 ERA is supported by all of his estimators. His numbers against RHBs have improved from above a .400 wOBA last season to .358 with nine HRs this season. That’s further improved to a reasonable .337 wOBA and two HRs for RHBs in his four home starts. On a larger slate, that’s something to consider, but the lean should remain heavily towards Arizona’s RHBs here. While Paul Goldschmidt (195 wRC+, .398 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the obvious name here, Nick Ahmed (140 wRC+, .297 ISO) is a bargain leadoff bat, even if his xwOBA is 57 points below his actual against LHP over this span. John Ryan Murphy (215 wRC+, .494 xwOBA, .459 ISO, 56.7 Hard%) leads all of baseball with 14.9% Barrels/PA (50 BBE min.). Ketel Marte (94 wRC+, .160 ISO) is a middle infield salary saver if that’s even needed tonight.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Derek Holland, Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte All clear for Monday night's MLB games
Players may run into a number of obstacles in constructing their lineups for a four game slate tonight, but weather will not add to the difficulties. Players can read the updated forecast on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest info on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.