DFS Alerts
Low owned Tribe stack? Yes Please
I absolutely love what will be an unowned Indian stack today in GPP’s. I am not usually one to pick on Kyle Gibson but today that’s exactly what I’ll be doing. Gibson has been absolutely owned by this Indians team throughout the years. Of the 5 hitters we project in the lineup with at least 17 career at bats vs Gibson, the lowest batting average is Kipnis at .353 and they have hit 7 HR’s with 15 extra base hits in about 100 at bats. On top of that the tribe are red hot (aside from today) scoring 7 runs or more in 6 of 8 making the pricing extremely high but also lowering ownership as people will pay up for the Yankees and Coors as they skip over the Indians. Fire up your tribe stacks today!
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley, Greg Allen, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso
Cheap Power in a Plus Matchup
We don’t have a huge sample size for Choi, but from what we have seen he’s shown decent power vs. RHP (.226 ISO career) and he has gotten very unlucky putting the ball in play (.194 BABIP). Looking at his minor league numbers show a whole different story. Over the last few years in AAA, Choi has owned a plus .200 ISO and plus .400 wOBA. This guy is gonna be good in the majors and the price tag isn’t going to be this low for a while, especially when he’s going up against a pitcher in Covey who’s giving up a 40% hard hit rate on the season.
The Best Low Priced Option
You know a slate is bad when then cheapest you can possibly go is 6.9K on DK. There is not a single pitcher lower than Matz that I’m even considering. On the year, Matz has been limiting hard contact (13%), but allowing a whole lot of walks (13.9%) to lefties, while giving up a lot of hard contact (40%) and striking out righties at an above average clip (21.4%). This CHC team doesn’t strike out at a high clip, but there are a few bats in the lineup who have been known to swing an miss quite a bit vs. lefties (see Kyle Schwarber). This is by no means a safe play, but you aren’t going to find more upside from a pitcher under 7k on this slate.
A Pitcher With a Plus K Matchup
Look, this slate isn’t great for low priced pitching options, so you have to take them where you can get them. Suter is a decent pitcher on the year and doesn’t really do anything terrible. On the year, Suter owns a decent 19.2% K rate, 4.8% walk rate, and a 4.24 xFIP. He does strike out righties at a much higher rate than lefties (which the White Sox should end up with 5 or 6 of in their lineup) and the lineup they’re currently rolling out owns a sky high 26.6% K rate. Suter is more of a GPP play on this slate, but if you’re thinking about him in cash then the main thing you have to worry about is giving up bombs (Suter gives up a lot of hard contact) and as long as no one his on base when this happens, his floor really isn’t that bad.
The Pivot off Arenado at Third Base
Steven Matz has always been a woefully inconsistent pitcher, flashing upside at times but getting smashed at other times. He is very good against lefties and has held them to a sub-.300 wOBA and sub-10% hard contact rate this year, but RHBs are pegging him for hard contact at a 40% clip. I am fine with selectively targeting Cubs RHBs today, especially Kris Bryant. He owns ridiculous splits against lefties this year, including a .578 wOBA and .500 ISO. He obviously won’t sustain those levels, but he will go under-owned today (particularly on DK/FDRAFT where Nolan Arenado is available). I love the pivot to Bryant in GPP formats, and I think you can even consider him in cash games.
Ready to Grind Up a Cobb Salad
Alex Cobb showed some signs of life in the early part of May, but he regressed again toward the end of the month and has just 25 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings this season. That’s not a good recipe when you have to go against the dangerous power that the Yankees bring to the table. Cobb has been blown up by lefties this year, as his ground ball rate is 11% lower against LHBs, and he is allowing a .473 wOBA against them. Brett Gardner is a fine option at the top of the lineup this afternoon, and Didi Gregorius might have the most upside of any shortstop on the slate. While Gardner hasn’t had his best season and Gregorius has slipped after a hot start, this is a great spot to get back on track.
Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius A Great Spot for a Professional Hitter
The Brewers are absolutely capable of blowing up in this spot with their power-laden offense, and they check in as my favorite GPP stack on all sites (even ahead of the Dodgers). Covey just isn’t any good, period. In his brief major league career, he has allowed a .370 wOBA to LHBs and a .396 wOBA to RHBs with tons of hard contact to hitters from both sides. I will largely consider him splits-neutral. Travis Shaw is my preferred target in all formats with his impressive .396 wOBA and .329 ISO against RHP this year, while you can also consider anyone else in the top five in this lineup as an elite play today.
An Affordable SP #2 Choice
Hey, it’s a bad slate, so let’s just roster whoever is pitching against the White Sox! The White Sox face a league average lefty in Brent Suter today, but that’s not necessarily bad news for Suter. This team owns the highest strikeout rate in baseball against LHP at a whopping 27.3%, and they don’t exactly walk all that often. The White Sox have a reputation of hitting lefties better than they do because of their solid results from last year, but we are more than two months deep into the season, and the team ranks 21st in wOBA against LHP. Again, this is more about the matchup than the talent, as Suter has slightly below average strikeouts, allows a lot of hard contact, and basically isn’t much better than league average in anything besides a low walk rate. That low walk rate plays well in this matchup, and Suter is also cheap. He’s a reasonable option in all formats if you are looking to save some cash.
Your Top Arm on an Ugly Slate
Today’s slate is a mess for arms, so it’s Lester almost by default at the top. This is less about Lester’s skills and more about just how bad the Mets are against left-handers. They rank at the bottom of the league in wOBA and ISO against lefties, and Lester is a strong option in all formats because of that. While his numbers are trending in the wrong direction, they aren’t nearly as bad as Quintana’s, and the latter had a very strong start against the Mets the other night. I see no reason to expect anything different here. Lester is merely average with his strikeouts these days and has a fairly ugly batted ball profile, so he’s not as good as his tidy 2.71 ERA would indicate. However, he rarely gets blown up and has a great matchup. On a slate that is starved for pitching, Lester is the most logical option.
Marco Gonzales (23.7% K% vs RHB) offers plenty of value on Saturday's main slate versus free-swinging, righty-heavy Rays order
Gonzales is presently enjoying a fine stretch of outings where he’s allowed zero earned runs and pitched into at least the sixth inning in each of his previous three starts, and he’ll draw a good matchup with a Tampa Bay Rays squad at home this evening, elevating him firmly into consideration for all daily fantasy formats at a nicely discounted price tag on DraftKings and around the industry. Admittedly, Gonzales isn’t the highest upside starting pitcher from a strikeout perspective, but he has had great control (6.0% BB%) and been solid at controlling batted balls, as evidenced by a 46.1% groundball rate and 32.8% hard-hit percentage. The Rays will more than likely run out a lineup chock full of right-handed hitters on Saturday night, and even though that may appear to be a red flag for a left-handed pitcher, it actually sets up as an advantage for Gonzales given his current splits to righties (23.7% K%, 6.5% BB%, 3.15 xFIP), which is a valuable skill set to have against a team that owns the ninth-highest strikeout rate and eleventh-fewest runs scored per game versus left-handed pitching this season. In fact, the projected Tampa Bay lineup has a combined 24.9% strikeout rate and 0.179 ISO against southpaws thus far in 2018, making this a juicy matchup on paper for Gonzales, who rarely can be touted as a pitcher with substantial strikeout upside in any given start. Additionally, Gonzales actually checks in as a marginal -118 home favorite over Chris Archer on tonight’s slate, which certainly speaks volumes for a pitcher that has exhibited a similar skill set to his counterpart this season and is priced at a significant discount from his opponent, especially on DraftKings, where he fits perfectly as an SP2 with a comfortable floor and ceiling in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ
Jay Bruce (back) scratched Saturday; Luis Guillorme replaces
Bruce has been scratched from the New York Mets original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Saturday’s matchup with the Chicago Cubs due to a lingering back issue. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Luis Guillorme, who will play third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Kevin Plawecki up one batting position to sixth, while Jose Bautista and Brandon Nimmo will now patrol left field and right field defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mets order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Mike Montgomery at home this evening.
As reported by: Tim Healey via Twitter The Offense To Load Up On
This is a pitching heavy slate, and as such, we have one obvious offense at the top, the Dodgers in Coors Field against German Marquez. The only case to fade Dodgers is ownership. Marquez is not terrible and the bullpen is good, it’s just that there’s nothing else out there tonight. I originally had Joc Pederson in the Core spot, but since he’s batting down at 6th, it makes more sense to lock in a tougher catcher position on DK in this game. Grandal has strong plate discipline, plenty of power and is batting right in the middle of the lineup for the top offense of the night.
Still Have An Ace, Just In Case
I’m adding Verlander to the Core Plays list, not as idea to play both him and deGrom together, but with weather issues looming in New York, to make it clear that Verlander is every bit as strong a play as deGrom, and the risk of delay remains high for deGrom, we can just shift right over to Verlander. The strikeouts may not reach elite level against Boston, but there is just no flaw in Verlander’s skills between the strikeouts, the control and the lowest hard hit rate of any starter in the league.
Start of Saturday's NYY-BAL game will be delayed due to inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to the threat of inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game carries substantial postponement risk with the contest currently in a “dry” stoppage.
As reported by: Jon Meoli via Twitter Stacking against a former Ace
I have a tiny bit of interest in Price at his price on DK.. However I think a Houston stack is firmly in play. This team has a .215 ISO vs lefties since the start of last year and Price has become basically an average lefty and has had some recent struggles with righties. Springer, Bregman, Stassi, Gattis and Davis stand out but I am good with anyone in this lineup 1 through 9. The ownership will be lower here than it should be making this one of my favorite GPP stacks of the day
Other tagged players: Max Stassi, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, J.D. Davis