DFS Alerts
Upside In Price
You know the rule – never roster a starting pitcher in Coors. And while that’s a rule I hardly ever break, even in GPPs, I will admit that the more I read about Dennis Santana the more intrigued I am to take a flier on him as a cheap SP2 in tournaments. Santana is a converted shortstop who will be making his Major League debut for the Dodgers after two starts in AAA. He has a fastball that can reach the mid-90’s + has decent movement and has shown strong strikeout stuff (30%+ strikeout rate in the Minors this year). Reading about Santana is giving me flashbacks of Freddy Peralta’s debut for the Brewers in Colorado earlier this year where the young righty with a plus-fastball recorded 13 strikeouts over 5.2 IP. I don’t want to lead anybody astray – my exposure to Rockies hitters will be greater than my exposure to Dennis Santana – but there is plenty of upside in Santana’s price tag.
I'm Still a Top 30 Hitter
Despite a pathetic cast around him leading to a slightly poor start, Bour is still a top 30 hitter. He has a very solid .270 ISO and .350+ wOBA vs RHP, and today he draws a matchup with one of the worst RHP in baseball in Clay Buchholz. Bour is a great power one-off at a great discount off top-end first base options.
A Great Play as Part of a Sneaky Offense
Arizona has been an offensive disappointment all year, but this could be a break out spot, as they have a healthy implied team total of 4.8 runs this evening. Elieser Hernandez has decent numbers in a limited sample size, but he doesn’t profile as anything special and won’t miss a ton of bats. I love the recently activated Jake Lamb here. Remember, he had a .386 wOBA and .270 ISO against RHP a year ago, and he generally squares the ball up against bad pitching. He’s a core play for me this evening, and the rest of the Arizona lineup can be considered as part of GPP stacks or mini-stacks.
A Top Value Play
On the Marlins side tonight, I’ll look to left-handed pop against Buchholz, who is yet another fly ball pitcher that is well past his prime. Justin Bour has been a bit of a disappointment this year, but he still owns a solid batted ball profile with a .370 wOBA and .274 ISO against RHP. This is an elite matchup for him, and remember that it wasn’t long ago that a debate was being held about him being a top 20 overall hitter in the league. Bour grabs core play status for me as a nice value pick that will help you spend up at other spots.
An Elite Second Base Option
My favorite play from the A’s here is Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has been rock solid all year and helps fill a premium position at second base, where it’s often hard to find a great DFS option. He also carries an 11% walk rate, a .228 ISO, and a .373 wOBA against RHP this season. Fire him up as a core play tonight in a fine matchup, and he also has the highest RotoGrinders PlateIQ score of the day.
Heating Up
Nick Williams has his ISO against RHP all the way up to .211 this season, and tonight he draws a matchup against Chris Stratton, who has had all sorts of trouble against left-handed pitching. He’s allowing a .216 ISO and a .355 wOBA to them this year while only striking out 14.7% and walking over 12% of left-handed bats. The ballpark isn’t the best for Williams, but that should keep ownership nice and low in this great spot.
Poor Luck vs LHPs Will End Eventually
In 2017, Domingo Santana was a guy we would lock in at this cheap price against LHP, as he had a .218 ISO and a .373 wOBA against them. 2018 has been a different story, as he’s been held to a .024 ISO and a .145 wOBA, but it’s been a ton of poor luck. His overall profile against LHP hasn’t changed other than his BABIP falling from .364 last year to an insanely low .148 this year. Look for that to turn around soon and lead him to similar numbers as 2017 before it’s all said and done. Hector Santiago tonight is a good place to start.
Savings on the Mound... If You Need It
Sale and Pivetta are both expensive, so I’m throwing in a third core pitcher for those of you who might need the value. Mahle is a super talented young arm, but he’s very inconsistent. The positive news is that he draws a favorable matchup in Petco Park against the Padres this evening. That should limit the damage that tends to be done via Mahle’s high hard contact rate. He has decent skills with a 22% strikeout rate and a relatively average overall profile, but his fly ball lean is helped by Petco Park and, as I mentioned, the overall matchup is great. San Diego has the highest team strikeout rate in all of baseball. There’s rationale for using him in all formats tonight, as I would expect a solid outing at a reasonable cost.
An Ace That Doesn't Get Enough Chatter
It is very easy to sleep on Pivetta, as he always seems to pitch on these slates with tons of options. That has me REALLY interested in him for GPP games tonight. The Giants are coming off a series at Coors Field, and they now shift back to what could be the worst park in the league for offense. That’s a real drain on hitters, and that is a benefit that can’t be over-looked here. The Giants have a reputation for not striking out much as a team, but they actually own the sixth highest strikeout rate in baseball this season. Also, Pivetta is just really good. His ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all sit in the low threes, his strikeout rate is almost 29%, and you can certainly put him in the camp with the Strasburg/Carrasco tier if you want. He just doesn’t have that perception in the community as a whole. When you factor in that Pivetta has the best matchup of the bunch tonight, there’s even more reason to be excited.
My Top Arm of the Night
His numbers are as solid as ever with a 35% strikeout rate and a career-high 16% swinging strike rate thus far in 2018. His ERA, SIERA, and xFIP are all in the mid-twos, and these figures are no fluke. He has turned it on after a relatively slow start to the season, so the potential is certainly there for Sale to be an elite fantasy scorer for us no matter the matchup. This will be a fun battle between Sale and Cole, but the numbers give the edge to Sale in terms of opponent, as Houston has not been as good against lefties this year as they were a year ago. Though they have still been solid, the Red Sox are an elite offense against RHP. As such, I’m giving the edge to Chris Sale over Gerrit Cole tonight, especially since Sale comes at a bit of a discount on every site.
Dustin Pedroia scratched Thursday: Blake Swihart replaces
Pedroia has been scratched from the Boston Red Sox original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Thursday’s matchup with the Houston Astros due to soreness in his left knee. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Blake Swihart, who will play right field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon, Brock Holt, and Rafael Devers all up one batting position, while Holt also moves to second base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Red Sox order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Lance McCullers on the road this evening.
As reported by: Christopher Smith via Twitter
Start of Thursday's NYY-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options for daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their appeal, but the delay could be a potentially positive sign for hitters if the teams opt to play through any additional precipitation later in the evening. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game still carries a sizable amount of postponement risk and players from this contest should be reserved to tournament use only.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Wei-Yin Chen has pitched well recently, but the San Diego lineup continues a few lefty-mashers
Wei-Yin Chen has looked good in his last two starts (12.2 IP – 8 H – 3 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 11 K), which may be enough to make him a worthy candidate at a low cost in San Diego (89 wRC+, 18.5 K-BB% vs LHP). On the other hand though, this San Diego lineup contains some hitters who can mash left-handed pitching. Christian Villanueva (257 wRC+, .443 xwOBA, .561 ISO) and Hunter Renfroe (161 wRC+, .380 ISO, 53.6 FB%) have been two of the top bats in baseball against southpaws over the last calendar year. Jose Pirela (125 wRC+, .189 ISO) costs less than $3.5K on either site. Even Franmil Reyes has a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against them with two HRs in 14 PAs.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Wei-Yin Chen, Jose Pirela, Franmil Reyes
Shane Bieber has walked a total of 13 batters in his minor league career with a 20+ K-BB% at every stop
The first six batters in the Minnesota lineup have an ISO ranging from .198 (Max Kepler) to .275 (Eddie Rosario) against RHP over the last calendar year and only Miguel Sano (92) is below a 102 wRC+ among that group. It then shouldn’t surprise they have the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.61). However, Shane Bieber is a bit of an unknown, making his major league debut against him. There are no recent mentions (within the last year) in his Fangraphs profile, which has just a 45 Future Value grade. Looking at his minor league starts, he has a 20+ K-BB% at every professional stop in his career. He’s walked a total of 13 batters in over 200 minor league innings and has a 59.8 GB% in 34.1 AAA innings this season. With a lot of questionable pitchers and/or spots behind Aaron Nola on this board, it’s hard to say he’s not worth a shot, though his price tag is already up to $7.3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler One dangerous spot with potentially big implications in Thursday night's forecast
There is one spot of serious concern in Kevin’s evening update for Thursday and it may carry some big implications. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers are going to want to tune in to Crunch Time at 6:30 ET, where Kevin will update up until lock.