DFS Alerts
It may be Aaron Nola and then a lot of difficult choices tonight
Exactly half of tonight’s 18 starting pitchers have a strikeout rate at or above 22.5% with the top mark belonging to Jack Flaherty (27.7%), who has just five starts. Sean Newcomb (26.6%), Clayton Kershaw (26.5%), Lance McCullers (26.4%) and Seth Lugo (26.2%) round out the top five. Only McCullers and Newcomb have made more than seven starts this season. Lugo has made none. McCullers (.309), Lugo (.300), Flaherty (.289), and Newcomb (.270) all have an xwOBA below .300 as well, though Aaron Nola (.267) leads the board in that respect. None are in terribly difficult spots, as there aren’t many of those on the board tonight, though none are in high strikeout upside spots either. None of these pitchers faces a team with a top seven (highest) strikeout split (vs LHP/RHP) tonight. Newcomb’s matchup with the Nationals (23.1 K% vs LHP) is the highest mark on the board. Kershaw’s against the Phillies (22.1%) is the second highest. While Kershaw may be in the best overall spot of tonight’s usable pitchers, players likely see the problems inherent in rostering a pitcher fresh off a month long DL stint without a minor league rehab start. Nola is the second highest priced pitcher on the board against the Dodgers with only he and Tanner Roark averaging more than six innings per start this year, besides Kershaw. He’ll likely be the top overall play tonight. Back to McCullers at $9K or less…he’s got the Red Sox (split best 122 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP), but at least they’re in an extremely negative run environment in Houston. Flaherty costs $9.2K on DraftKings against the Pirates (19.3 K% vs RHP). Jose Quintana has increased his strikeout rate over the last month (23.9%), but not his swinging strike rate (8.6%). He faces a Mets’ lineup (70 wRC+, 27 K% vs LHP) with Cespedes, Frazier and Flores on the DL. All this is to say that there’s Aaron Nola and then some very difficult choices tonight.
Load Up These Righties
Drew Pomeranz has seen a sharp drop in his skills this season, and with his strikeouts down below average, he will have a tough time getting through the top of this Astros order loaded with high contact batters. After Springer, all of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are firmly in play in all formats. I will lean first towards Bregman who is showing the most impressive plate skills on this team with more walks than strikeouts against lefties and a .222 BABIP that has nowhere to go but up.
Load Up These Righties
Drew Pomeranz has seen a sharp drop in his skills this season, and with his strikeouts down below average, he will have a tough time getting through the top of this Astros order loaded with high contact batters. They are all in play, but George Springer has shown the most power against lefties, at a .316 ISO so far this season, and a .408 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2017.
The Must Play Offense
The Yankees have far and away the highest team total tonight heading into Baltimore to face Andrew Cashner. You can make a case for every single batter in this lineup in all formats, but with the way Cashner’s splits have flipped this season, I’m starting with the righties, where Cashner’s strikeous are down at 13.8% and he’s lost his previous ground ball and soft contact skills. If salary were no issue, I’d put Aaron Judge first, but it’s a signinicant savings to Gary Sanchez and his .250 ISO against right-handed pitching. On DK, his catcher eligibility makes him a high priority and the FD savings make him the first Yankees play for me there as well.
Pitching Duel Out West
There’s no question that the best pitcher on the mound tonight is Clayton Kershaw, making his return from the DL. However, with no rehab starts, and the Dodgers tendency to baby their pitchers, it’s hard to imagine him pitching deep enough to pay off his salary in this first start. The next best pitcher is on the opposite side with the Phillies Aaron Nola. Nola is striking out 33.6% of righties while getting 55% ground balls on just 20% hard hits to lefties. Over the past month, he has been at the top of his game with a 31.2% K rate, a 1.91 ERA and 2.62 SIERA. It’s not an ideal matchup, but this is a tough pitching slate, and this is the most skilled guy outside of his opponent with the pitch count concerns.
A High-Powered Offense with Plenty of Upside
I like the Astros a lot tonight as a potential stack, but it is surprising to see how much Jose Altuve has struggled against LHP this season. Normally a dominant force against lefties, Altuve owns a meager .283 wOBA and .091 ISO against southpaws in 2018. Improvement is very likely moving forward, but that stat does give me some pause. Carlos Correa is my favorite play, as I like the way his 19% walk rate against LHP lines up with Pomeranz’ tendency to nibble. Gurriel and Bregman are also solid pieces with which to round out a potential Houston stack.
Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
Finally Showing Signs of Life
The Mariners have lost the first two games of this series against Texas, but they are finally starting to show some signs of life offensively. They scored six runs on Wednesday and draw a fine matchup here against Mike Minor, who has been decent this year but still struggles against RHBs, as he has allowed a .380 wOBA to them this season. Ryon Healy and Mitch Haniger are fine one-off plays with their power potential against LHP, and my bold call is that Nelson Cruz gets on track with a pair of long balls tonight. Fire up the Mariners as a sneaky late-night stack if you like.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, Ryon Healy Top Stack of the Night
The Yankees will likely be considered the top team stack of the night, as they have a whopping implied team total over six runs against Andrew Cashner and the Orioles. Cashner once owned extreme splits and struggled mightily against lefties, but he has simply been bad against everyone this year. All the power bats are in play for the Yankees, and Greg Bird is an intriguing option now that he is healthy. It’s only a matter of time before he puts up big numbers of his own, and a lot of people might eschew him until he gets some more at bats. He’s a great value play on FanDuel, but all the Yankee hitters are strong options tonight.
Other tagged players: Greg Bird, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez Get Back On Track With This Matchup
After a couple of tough starts, I really like this spot for Jordan Lyles. Outside of Bour and Realmuto, the Marlins are awful. They rank last in ISO against righties and 29th in wOBA, and their projected starting lineup has a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Only Bour and Realmuto have wOBAs over .325 against righties this season. Lyles is more of a fly ball guy, but this ballpark certainly plays well with his strengths. With the Marlins featuring more righties, I like to look at the platoon advantage. Lyles has a .312 wOBA with a 25.3% strikeout rate with a 6.3% walk rate against righties this season. With his ability to get strikeouts and no walk people, I think he’s playable tonight.
Finally Ready to Pick Up the Pace
It’s hard to endorse Quintana as a great play right now, as his numbers this season have been very poor by his standards. However, tonight’s matchup represents a prime opportunity to get right against a Mets team that has just been abysmal against left-handed pitching so far this season. They rank last in the league with a .270 wOBA against LHP, they rank last in the league with a .095 team ISO against LHP, and they have the second highest strikeout rate! If this isn’t enough for Quintana to meet value at a discounted price point, he’s officially off the table until he figures it out.
Let's See How It Works Out
I don’t expect a lot of people to know who Shane Bieber is, but he’s a talented young pitcher that is quickly moving up the ranks with the Indians. He will make his Major League debut tonight against the Twins. Bieber posted a 2.40 xFIP with a .55 WHIP and a 26.5% strikeout rate in 34.1 innings in AAA this season. Since 2016 in the Minors, he’s shown the ability to throw strikes and he gets a lot of groundballs. I’m always worried about a young pitcher making his debut, but I’m always willing to take a shot if it makes sense. The projected starters for the Twins have a .306 wOBA with a .174 ISO and a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
A Fine Play on a Wide Open Pitching Slate
Tonight’s slate is remarkably wide open for pitching, as we will likely see Clayton Kershaw on a pitch count, and I don’t love paying a premium for Aaron Nola in a head-to-head battle with Kershaw. I will likely step down to save some salary with a pitching spot or two tonight, and I will start by highlighting Newcomb. The potential is absolutely there with Newcomb, as we can see from his 26.6% strikeout rate and solid batted ball profile. I don’t think he will garner high ownership against Washington, so I like the GPP appeal on a low-owned pitcher. On a slate as wide open as this one, going contrarian with your GPP pitchers seems like a smart strategy.
Mariners drop their LHBs against Matt Moore's reverse splits (LHBs .448 wOBA since 2017)
Matt Moore makes his return from the DL in Seattle. Consequently, the Mariners (4.42) have the highest implied run line in the four west coast games tonight. Moore has a reverse platoon split (LHBs .448 wOBA, .436 xwOBA since last season), which the Mariners have responded to by dropping their two LHBs, Kyle Seager (114 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Denard Span (88 wRC+, .083 ISO) to the second half of the order. RHBs have hit him well too though (.342 wOBA, .350 xwOBA). Each of the right-handed batters except Gordon Beckham has a wRC+ above 110 against southpaws over the last calendar year. Mike Zunino (.278), Ryon Healy (.210), Mitch Haniger (.193) and Nelson Cruz (.192) have the top ISOs.
Other tagged players: Denard Span, Mike Zunino, Ryon Healy, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz Zack Cozart scratched Wednesday; Jefry Marte replaces
Cozart has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and won’t start in Wednesday’s matchup with the Detroit Tigers due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jefry Marte, who will play first base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which will bump Martin Maldonado and Cole Calhoun each up one batting position to seventh and eighth, respectively, while Ian Kinsler will now handle the leadoff responsibilities and Luis Valbuena slides over to third base defensively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Angels order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Mike Fiers on the road this evening.
As reported by: Jeff Fletcher via Twitter
Some late game rain concerns in a couple of spots
Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Wednesday evening and there are a couple of spots that have the potential for some late rain. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join him on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.