DFS Alerts
Brian Dozier (140 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs < $4K against Danny Duffy (.408 xwOBA)
While some players may be considering rostering Danny Duffy at the minimum cost on DraftKings, coming off his best start of the season in Texas, this could perhaps make it an under-owned spot for the Twins, who have the second highest implied run line outside Coors currently (4.82) against a pitcher who has generated a .408 xwOBA this season and the highest mark on the board over the last 30 days (.438). He has surrendered 24 HRs to RHBs since the start of last year (.352 wOBA/xwOBA, 34.5 Hard%, 36.2 GB%). Brian Dozier (140 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is an elite play at just $3.9K on DraftKings! Miguel Sano (119 wRC+, .247 ISO) costs the same.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Danny Duffy
No Detroit bat costs more than $4K in a positive run environment against a hard contact prone pitcher
Batters from either side of the plate have a 40+ Hard% against Nick Tropeano in his return from Tommy John surgery this year. RHBs have a .370 xwOBA 57 points above their actual mark. Detroit does not strike out a lot and the park is a positive run environment. They have a 4.32 implied run line that’s in the middle of the board without a batter above $4K on either site. This may be a sneaky, salary saving mini-stack, though only three or four batters have been competent or better against RHP over the last calendar year: Nick Castellanos (118 wRC+, .207 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (133 wRC+, .195 ISO), Leonys Martin (102 wRC+, .177 ISO) and John Hicks (95 wRC+, .163 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin, Nick Tropeano, John Hicks Ten of 14 HRs allowed by Dylan Bundy have gone to RHBs
Dylan Bundy has the highest SwStr% on the board and has struck out 29 of his last 82, but he’s also allowed 14 HRs this year. The Nationals are not without upside in this spot with a 4.4 implied run line in Baltimore. Left-handed hitters have a wOBA and xwOBA around 50 points higher than righties. While Bryce Harper (155 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Matt Adams (146 wRC+, .304 ISO) immediately come to mind, ten of 14 HRs allowed by Bundy this year have gone to RHBs. Anthony Rendon (137 wRC+, .212 ISO) could be the wild card here.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Dylan Bundy Aaron Judge has a .400+ wOBA against the pitchers Charlie Morton most often throws to RHBs
Charlie Morton has the highest strikeout rate and the highest price tag on the board. He struck out 10 Yankees, pitching into the eighth inning almost exactly a month ago. However, he throws sinkers and curves more than 50% of the time against RHBs, both pitches Aaron Judge has a .400+ xwOBA against (via PlateIQ) in his career. Judge has a team leading 180 wRC+ and .348 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. This might be a spot to pick up an elite hitter at low ownership in a spot that may not be as bad as it looks for him. The Yankees still have a 4.33 implied run line that’s smack in the middle of the board and RHBs have a wOBA 100 points higher against Morton than LHBs, including 13 of the 21 HRs he’s allowed over that span.
Other tagged players: Charlie Morton The Boston Red Sox (w/o Mookie Betts) have the top implied run line (5.58) outside Coors
The Red Sox have a 5.58 implied run line that’s second best on the board and the only one above five outside of Coors tonight, despite not having Mookie Betts in the lineup against Marco Estrada tonight. Estrada’s 12.3% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark on the board and more than a full point above the next worse mark. He’s a true reverse platoon pitcher with a 47 point split difference by xwOBA and higher by actual since last season. That makes J.D. Martinez (157 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) one of the top bats on the board tonight and perhaps a strong value even at a high cost. Xander Bogaerts (86 wRC+, .165 ISO) gains value with a bump up to second in the order. He’s increased his fly ball rate six points against same-handed pitching this year alone. Andrew Benintendi (130 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (116 wRC+, .251 ISO) are certainly rosterable in the top half of the lineup as well from the left-hand side.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Marco Estrada, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland Daily Bullpen Alert: Much ado in Atlanta
When considering bullpen involvement tonight, the situation in Atlanta is of particular interest. The two teams played a double-header last night with the second ending after 1am. While the Mets used just two pitchers in the first game, the second game was an entire bullpen effort, while the Atlanta pen threw 7.2 innings. Both of these pens are likely worn out and tonight’s starters are Anibal Sanchez, fresh off a month and a half on the DL, along with Steven Matz, averaging a board low four and two-thirds innings per start. That’s not where it ends. This game is the most likely spot for a delay tonight, which could cause even more chaos with the pen. This is certainly a spot to attack with bats should Kevin give the green light this evening. Daniel Gossett is the only other pitcher on the board outside of Colorado averaging fewer than five innings per start and he’s made just three of them (seven IP in his most recent). The Oakland bullpen has a middling 4.05 FIP, but their 20.9 K% is a bottom five mark in baseball.
Tyson Ross has struck out a quarter of batters faced and has failed to complete six innings just once
If high cost pitching comes with some problems tonight (which is not to say they’re not worthy of rostering), what do the mid and low cost ranges offer tonight? To start with, Tyson Ross has gone at least six innings in all but one start and has struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced. That would appear to be the floor at home against the Marlins (77 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP). He’s not far from the top of the board, but well below $9K on FanDuel. Jake Arrieta decided to throw more sliders in his last start and struck out more than five for just the second time this season. It’s good to see he can still do that on occasion and he may be worth for $7.5K on DraftKings, should he decide to do that again in LA (NL). Jeremy Hellickson has pitched to 22 batters or fewer in every start and has gone beyond 75 in just one of his last five, but his overall work has been quality and he costs a reasonable $6.5K on FanDuel in a matchup with some upside in Baltimore. Luis Castillo has increased his strikeout rate to 26.3% over the last month, but his swinging strike rate continues to shoot up and is the highest on the board over this span (16.3%). After allowing no fewer than three runs in any of his first six starts, he hasn’t allowed that many in any of his five May starts, in which he’s more than doubled his K-BB%. Nick Kingham’s underlying numbers are all over the place through three starts and his 30.4 K% is suspect (11.1 SwStr%), but that’s not to say there’s no upside at a reasonable price. At the bottom end of the board there appear to be maybe two pitchers considered rosterable, both with massive contact authority concerns. Dan Straily and Danny Duffy are the only pitchers on the board above a .400 xwOBA, but Straily has some upside in his 17 K% with a 10 SwStr% and is pitching in San Diego (26.6 K% vs RHP). Duffy pitched perhaps his best game of the season Texas last time out and costs the minimum on DK against the Twins (25.1 K% vs LHP), though they do have Miguel Sano back.
Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta, Jeremy Hellickson, Luis Castillo, Nick Kingham, Dan Straily, Danny Duffy High priced pitching may provide few answers on Tuesday night
While a first glance at Vegas run lines might have one believing that pitching is strong tonight with eight offenses at or below four runs, only two are below 3.7 runs and the highest priced pitcher on the board (Charlie Morton) is facing none of those eight teams. Morton has the highest strikeout rate on the board (31%) and did dominate the Yankees in a previous meeting this year, but this is an extremely tough matchup against one of the top graded teams against fastballs and curveballs (the majority of his pitches), while he’s been below a double digit SwStr% in four of his last six starts. Kenta Maeda (30.8 K%) hosts the Phillies (26.4 K% vs RHP). While his ability to work deeper into games more recently is a cause for future optimism, a career high 111 pitches in his last outing could have a less encouraging immediate result. Blake Snell has completed six innings or better in eight of nine starts and it’s been the “or better” part in six of eight. His 27.1 K% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. The A’s have the lowest wRC+ over the last week (36) and a 17.1 K-BB% vs LHP this year, along with just a 7.8 HR/FB at home and are without their top RH power hitter. There’s a lot to like here, but premium and BAT subscribers may want to check out umpire assignments via LineupHQ. Rick Porcello has been struggling recently and may be a bit over-priced at $10.1K on DraftKings for a matchup against the Blue Jays at home, but they do have a 24.8 K% vs RHP and he costs $1.2K less on FanDuel. Porcello may also be the most likely to get a Win on tonight’s board. Dylan Bundy also cracks the $9K mark on either site. He’s struck out 29 of his last 82 batters after a run where he allowed 22 runs in nine innings. He has the board high 15.1 SwStr%, but has now allowed 13 HRs over his last six starts and is facing a Washington lineup with some power.
Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy, Kenta Maeda, Charlie Morton, Dylan Bundy He's Back!
He’s back! Anibal Sanchez will make a spot start for the Braves after a couple of unsuccessful rehab starts in AAA where he allowed 8 ER in 6 IP. The best of Anibal’s years are well behind him and his troubles with keeping the ball in the ballpark the last few years (2.22 HR/9; 105.1 IP in 2017, 1.76 HR/9; 153.1 IP in 2016, 1.66 HR/9; 157 IP in 2015) is a recipe for disaster at SunTrust.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera
#Stackstros
It’s the return of the #Stackstros as they square off against CC Sabathia at hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Sabathia has a strong 3.55 ERA through nine starts this season but his advanced run prevention metrics peg him as a below league average starter (4.54 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 4.39 SIERA). Sabathia has done a tremendous job generating soft contact (26.5 Soft%) but hitters have been putting the ball in play against CC who has a below average 17.4% strikeout rate. The Astros are designed to smash lefties and have done that so far this season with a 116 wRC+ which is similar to the 120 wRC+ they put up against southpaws last year. There’s nothing sneaky about this stack, yet you could get some decent ownership numbers with Tuesday’s slate being a full one.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis Power Stack
High price tags + Coors will likely lead to relatively low Red Sox ownership in a favorable matchup versus Marco Estrada at Fenway. Estrada is a fun but sometimes frustrating pitcher to stack against in HR parks – he is an extreme fly ball pitcher (26.3 GB% this year; 33.4 GB% career) but does a good job at generating soft contact (career 20.7 Soft%). Fly ball pitchers tend to give up HRs and Estrada is no different as he is allowing 1.96 HR/9 this year. HRs are something we want to target with our stacks and as a team the Red Sox have one of the top HR projections of the slate.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi Cheap Power Upside
I’m a fan of the talent for Luis Castillo, but he’s really struggling with left-handed hitters this season. He comes in with a .369 wOBA and a .276 ISO against lefties this year. The concerning thing for me is the 27.2% hard to soft contact rate with an average exit velocity of 91.1. Peralta’s numbers aren’t popping off the sheet, but I love his advanced power numbers. He has a 52.1% hard hit rate with an average exit velocity of 91.6 this season against righties. I love the upside in this matchup, and on a 14-game slate, I highly doubt he has a lot of ownership in this matchup.
Just Too Cheap For This Matchup
Third base is absolutely loaded tonight, but in cash games, it’s hard to pass on the value of Evan Longoria against a left-handed pitcher in Coors Field. The Giants have faced a lot of lefties already this season, and Longoria has a .385 wOBA with a .279 ISO in 73 PAs. He has a 46.4% hard contact rate and a 33.9% fly ball rate. Freeland has pitched great this season, and he’s not typically a guy I like to pick on, but the pricing is too soft on the Giants tonight. The Rockies didn’t use up a lot of their bullpen on Monday, but the backend was used enough that I doubt Wade Davis pitches tonight. That’s a slight bump to the hitters for the Giants.
Don't Need A Lot At This Price
Danny Duffy has been awful this season, and I’ve stacked against him a lot. That said, at his price tonight, I think he’s very much in play. You don’t need 25+ points at his price, but he surely has that type of ceiling here. The Twins projected starting lineup has a .286 wOBA with a .151 ISO and a 25.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Outside of Kepler, not one hitter has a wOBA over .350 against lefties this season. Even with his struggles this season, he’s still been very good against left-handed hitters. His velocity was down a lot in his first six starts, but it has been back to last season over the last five starts. I feel a lot better with his velocity back up, so I’m willing to take a shot at this price tag.
Strikeout Upside With A Great Ballpark
Dan Straily has been hot or cold all season, and while his numbers aren’t great, he’s looked really good in three straight starts. My biggest concern about playing Straily is his massive walk rate and command. However, the projected starters for the Padres have a 7.5% walk rate against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a combined 49.4% groundball rate with a .267 wOBA, .105 ISO, and 26% strikeout rate against righties this season. Straily owns a 10.5% swinging strike rate with a 17% strikeout rate so far in 2018, and since the start of 2017, he has a 12.2% swinging strike rate with a 21.3% strikeout rate. Looking at 2017, we know he has the strikeout upside, and in a matchup against the Padres in Petco, he’s a great play tonight on paper.