DFS Alerts
Cheap Exposure Batting First
Zobrist price on FanDuel is way too cheap at $2600 and he is also still a good value at $3900. Zobrist is a cheap bat going up against Stratton who has allowed a .364 wOBA to lefties and a 35% hard hit rate. If your looking for a way to get cheap exposure to this high total, Zobrist is your guy.
A little too cheap
We need to spend up for bats tonight on an already weak pitching slate and I am going back to Leblanc again. He isn’t great, the K rate is uninspiring but Leblanc is simply too cheap for what has been solid production. As a starter Leblanc has pitched 4 and 2/3rd innings or more in every start and has put up fpts in the teens in each of those starts. I would take every start Leblanc has had this year today as we want the bats in Colorado and Yankee stadium and they aint cheap. The Twins only have a 3.8 run total which is crazy low when considering Leblanc is 4.4 on DK. I think the Twins stack makes sense as a sneaky stack on this slate but mostly I’ll be rolling with Leblanc.
My favorite Game-stack
With everyone all over Coors tonight I am jumping over to Yankee stadium for the game stack of the night. Don’t get me wrong, this game will have ownership.. Just not nearly what it should be on a 6 game slate. Barria has been good but is no match for this Yankees and Gray was better in his last start but matches up poorly with this tough Angels team who get a massive park upgrade. I am interested in 1 through 9 on both sides but love the usual suspects especially.. Namely, Judge, Stanton, Trout, Kinsler, Sanchez and how do we not play the GOAT of the week Gleyber Torres who is looking to homer for the 5th game in a row. However you want to prioritize your funds tonight, i suggest you get a lot of exposure to this game in GPP’s and cash games alike.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Gaby Sanchez, Justin Upton, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks Favorite Cheap Pitcher On The Slate
Keep in mind this is a six game slate but Will talked me onto this play on the podcast. After his case he made I dug into LeBlanc a little more and noticed he has a 4.03 xFIP and is only allowing a 3.6% walk rate on the year. LeBlanc has also limited the hard contact to only 29.5% and gets to pitch in one of the better parks for pitchers on the slate. Vegas agrees too giving the Twins an implied run total of only 3.60. He is only $4400 on DraftKings and $6200 on Fanduel, if you need a cheap pitcher to jam in the bats, LeBlanc is my guy.
Cheap Lead Off Play To Consider
Joc Pederson can be a frustrating roster but against a bad right handed pitcher and for a cheap price, I have some interest. Lyles hasn’t been the worst right hander in the league but he is a guy that has had his problems. He is giving up a 56.4% FB rate and allowing a hard % of 35.9% to lefties this season. Joc absolutely smashes fastballs around 94 MPH and Lyles throws his fastball around that speed. I think Joc is a great cheap option to hit a homer on this slate.
Cheap Clean Up Hitter In Top Game
Coors is always in play as the top stack of the day. You want to get exposure to this game and a cheap easy way to is with Gerardo Parra. He is too cheap around the industry and is batting cleanup in Coors. This is a no brainer in cash, jam him in and include him in your stacks as well as a nice value bat from this great hitting environment.
Hard Contact
Outside of Coors, Wrigley looks to be the game to target for offense on Saturday’s main slate. The Cubs have an implied run total quickly approaching six and Rizzo will have the platoon against Chris Stratton who is the owner of a 4.86 SIERA. Stratton has done a terrible job generating soft contact (9.9% vs 18% league average) and will continue to get shelled if he’s is unable to limit hard contact.
Round Two
Despite an underwhelming fantasy performance as a team on Friday night, the cash game approach for Saturday’s main slate seems pretty clear – stack Rockies and fill in the gaps. Rockies hitters get another favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle with temps expected to be in the mid-80’s in Denver. While I’ll do what I can to jam in the higher priced Rockies like Arenado and Blackmon, Dahl is the guy that remains reasonably priced and easy to fit into lineups. Dahl doesn’t quite have the upside the other guys have but should have a lot of run scoring/producing opportunities and projects well from a pt/$ standpoint.
Sore Thumb
I find it necessary to use one of my blurbs on the Brian Dozier conundrum. Dozier’s price sticks out like a sore thumb on DraftKings ($3,600) and he just continues to see his salary decrease as he’s been bad so far this year. Dozier’s .302 xWOBA is sixth worst of all qualified hitters with 200+ plate appearances – the only players worse are Jose Peraza, Freddy Galvis, Brett Gardner, Jose Pirela and Ender Inciarte. There’s little doubt that this is a tremendous matchup for Dozier but I have enough concern to completely avoid him at his $3,900 tag on FanDuel and enough concern to make him more of a secondary option on DK.
Gross SP2
This recommendation has me so uncomfortable that I would LOVE to suggest a different SP2 for cash games on multi-starting pitcher sites but there’s just not much out there. Quintana is coming off a gem of a performance where he threw seven innings of one hit ball and struck out seven Cincinnati hitters. Quintana has looked below average all year, as his 4.62 SIERA can attest, and this really isn’t a great matchup against an average Giants team (24 K%, 103 wRC+ vs LHP) at hitter friendly Wrigley with temps in the 80’s. Quintana is my SP2 at the time of this writing (Saturday AM) but I’ll be keeping a close eye on lineups to see if any other pitchers become viable as we get closer to the start of the slate – heck, if you pitched LeBlanc as your SP2 and just jammed in hitters, I wouldn’t blame you at this point.
Live Life
You haven’t lived life to the fullest until you have pitched Alex Wood and Jose Quintana together in cash games. The top starting pitching spot is a bit of a toss up for Saturday’s main slate between Alex Wood and Carlos Carrasco but Wood has two things going for him that Carrasco does not: 1) He is facing the Padres. 2) He is facing the Padres (i.e. NL squad w/no DH). Wood has largely been mediocre from a fantasy perspective this year but the combination of facing the Padres + offering a significant salary savings on a night with Coors + warm Wrigley in play makes him the top SP1 option for me.
The Best SP #2 Option
There just isn’t a lot out there in the way of cheaper pitching tonight, so Quintana gets the nod as my SP #2 selection. I expect the Cubs to win this home game against Chris Stratton and the Giants, so hopefully Quintana can pick up the points for a victory. The Giants are also striking out more this year, and they have the ninth highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching in 2018. The walks remain a massive issue for Quintana, and he’s not as safe as he used to be, but he’s the best of the bunch on this slate.
The Safest Choice on a Wide Open Pitching Day
There are a lot of closely bunched arms at the top tonight, and it’s hard to parse them apart. Despite his matchup against a tough Houston offense, Carlos Carrasco is the safest play for cash games with his low 5% walk rate and solid numbers across the board. His SIERA and xFIP are both in the mid-threes, and we know he does carry some strikeout upside. Carrasco is also coming off a solid start last Sunday against this same Astros squad, where just one bad pitch to Brian McCann did him in for the day. I’m not an Alex Wood guy, so I can’t give him this endorsement despite a home matchup against the Padres, though I understand why some people will choose him over Carrasco tonight.
It's Time for This Offense to Wake Up!
It has been a real struggle for the Dodgers at the plate this season, and I can’t really recommend stacking them up at this point. However, I do like Joc Pederson as a value piece tonight. Jordan Lyles has decent numbers so far this year, but I wouldn’t bank on that continuing. He has benefited from a ridiculously low .163 BABIP to left-handed hitters, and his 5.00 xFIP against lefties suggests that regression is coming. He does allow a lot of fly balls, and Pederson could be a cheap option to give you a home run this evening.
A Fine Mid-Range Value
I don’t really understand the logic behind it, but the Rockies have allowed Gerardo Parra to man the cleanup spot lately. When you combine an affordable DFS price tag with a hitter batting cleanup for the team that has the highest implied run total on the board, you almost have to be interested by default. That’s where I stand with Parra. He’s nothing special with the bat, but he will see plenty of RBI opportunities and gets to swing the bat against a RHP at Coors Field. He’s a great way to get affordable exposure to the middle of the Colorado lineup.