DFS Alerts
The Top Overall Bat on the Slate
Blackmon is my choice as the top overall hitter on tonight’s slate. While his home numbers against RHP are down a bit this year, let’s not forget that they were simply off the charts a year ago, as he posted a .406 ISO and .503 wOBA at home against RHP. Despite this year’s decline, he still has a solid .386 wOBA in those spots this season, and I would expect improvement as we get into the warm summer months. He draws a fine matchup against a talented but young pitcher in Tyler Mahle, and I expect Mahle to struggle at Coors Field. My expert survey “hot take” has Blackmon hitting for the cycle tonight, so let’s go Charlie!
Denard Span scratched Friday; Johnny Field replaces
The Tampa Bay Rays have announced that they have traded Denard Span to the Seattle Mariners as part of a multi-player deal, and he has officially been scratched from the original confirmed lineup for Friday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles due to that aforementioned pending trade. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Johnny Field, who will play right field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which will bump Brad Miller all the way up to leadoff and Mallex Smith up to sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Rays order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander David Hess at home this evening.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter
If You Can't Go All The Way Up
It’s tough to build a quality lineup of hitters with Max Scherzer tonight on FanDuel. I still have Scherzer as my highest owned pitcher, but there’s plenty of reason to go down to Paxton, who is my second favorite option tonight, but priced only as the 5th highest SP on FanDuel. In his last five starts, Paxton has a 10-K game, a 16-K game, a no-hitter and then one down start with 4 K’s, followed by another complete game with eight strikeouts.
Warm and quiet night in MLB Friday
Kevin doesn’t have any concerns about Friday night’s MLB forecast and mentions some spots with good hitting weather. Read the entire report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can join him for last minute updates on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
The Rockies have a 6.81 run line more than a half run above any other team tonight
The Colorado Rockies have a 6.81 Vegas run line that’s more than a half run higher than the next best team. This despite just a 75 wRC+ at home and 61 wRC+ vs RHP because they are facing Sal Romano (5.4 SwStr%, .359 xwOBA). While Nolan Arenado (106 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) plays in virtually any matchup at Coors, Romano has had significant issues with LHBs (.363 wOBA, 37 Hard%, 41.3 GB% since last season). Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .285 ISO), David Dahl (123 wRC+, .176 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (94 wRC+, .150 ISO) complete a top four stack players will be creatively attempting to afford. How many players are expected to get there? Projected Ownership is available to premium subscribers both on it’s own page and in LineupHQ.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Sal Romano, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra RHBs have a career .385 wOBA (42.3 Hard%) vs Eric Skoglund, who pitches in Texas (5.11 implied runs) tonight
The Texas offense doesn’t bring much to the table, but they do play in Texas and are facing a pitcher who has struggled with both LHBs (.338 wOBA, .350 xwOBA, 37 Hard%) and RHBs (.385 wOBA, .392 xwOBA, 42.3 Hard%) in his career with a 40 GB% against both. This is enough to generate a 5.11 implied run line, making them the lowest of four teams above five tonight. The Rangers have just four RHBs in the lineup tonight, but all appear to be great values below $4K on either site: Delino DeShields (121 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (106 wRC+, .176 ISO), Jurickson Profar (166 wRC+, .300 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (142 wRC+, .250 ISO).
Other tagged players: Delino DeShields, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Robinson Chirinos, Eric Skoglund Reds have a low for Coors 4.69 implied run line, but some value at the top of the lineup
The Cincinnati Reds get the obligatory Coors mention, although they are facing a quality pitcher (Jon Gray 50 GB%, 29 K% at home this year) and have a 4.69 implied run line that’s somewhat low for Coors. That certainly doesn’t mean there’s no value at the top of this lineup. LHBs have a .322 wOBA against Gray since last season (.315 xwOBA), which is around league average and an accomplisment at Coors. Jesse Winker (140 wRC+, .382 wOBA/xwOBA, .175 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Tucker Barnhart (97 wRC+, .139 ISO) cost less than $4K in the top two spots. You’re certainly not completely passing on Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .219 ISO) at Coors, while Scooter Gennett (147 wRC+, .265 ISO) has been nearly as good.
Other tagged players: Jon Gray, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, Jesse Winker Five Blue Jays top a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year; LHBs career .378 wOBA vs Eflin
Zach Eflin has increased his velocity this season and has a 25 K% through three starts, but with a 9.8 SwStr%, while he had just a 17.7 K% in 20 AAA innings to start this season. It’s not something to buy into yet. Meanwhile, LHBs have a career .378 wOBA against him, which makes some of these Blue Jays’ bats a bit dangerous in a power friendly park. Curtis Granderson (137 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Justin Smoak (126 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (118 wRC+, .217 ISO) all cost less than $4K. Josh Donaldson and Teoscar Hernandez top a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last calendar year as well.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Zach Eflin, Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez Only two of nine Yankees in tonight's lineup have a hard hit rate below 40% over the last week
While Yankee bats surprisingly perform better against RHP, they’re still plenty dangerous against LHP, especially at home. Andrew Heaney is a fly prone pitcher, though he’s allowed HRs in just two starts this year and can miss some bats (27.7 K%). He’s had just two starts on the road this season and one was in Kansas City in early April. Yankee Stadium in late May might be a different story. The Bombers (5.59) are one of just four teams with an implied run line above five and RHBs have a .368 wOBA, .383 xwOBA, and 44.9 Hard% against Heany since last season, which means virtually every RHB in this lineup is playable should players be able to afford it. Gleyber Torres (162 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP) has been doing some damage with virtually no ownership due to price and his spot in the lineup. Much cheaper, Tyler Austin (173 wRC+, .370 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) presents some salary relief below $3.5K on either site. Aaron Judge (130 wRC+, .220 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (209 wRC+, .438 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (159 wRC+, .331 ISO) may be a bit tougher to afford. Only Austin and Brett Gardner have a hard hit rate below 40% over the last week and they’re both above 35%.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Austin, Andrew Heaney Great Play for the Price
Stripling is arguably the best value play of the slate. In four starts this season, he owns a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He induces ground balls and he limits hard contact. He draws the best matchup on the board, as he squares off against the Padres, whose projected lineup has a .290 xwOBA and a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Hard to Find a Better Matchup
Paxton is my guy tonight. I will have shares of Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, and Noah Syndergaard, but Paxton will be my highest owned pitcher of the slate. He feels expensive on DraftKings, which should help keep his ownership at a reasonable level. He’s been outstanding this season, posting a 3.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. The best part is a matchup against the Twins at home. This is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and the projected lineup for the Twins has a .235 xwOBA and a 30% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Atlanta lineup includes three batters with a 180 or better wRC+ against LHP over last calendar year
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 28.2 K% and costs less than $8K, but is a difficult roster against an Altanta lineup that is tough on left-handed pitching (129 wRC+, 17.1 K%), especially in an extremely positive run environment like Fenway. Part of the reason Rodriguez’s 4.13 ERA is above his estimators is an 89.7 mph aEV. While he has a bit of a reverse split (LHBs .327 wOBA, RHBs .308), there are a number of interesting options in the Atlanta lineup tonight from either side of the plate, two of them (both Catchers), fairly cheap. Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Ozzie Albies (187 wRC+, .302 ISO) are the expensive options. Kurt Suzuki (188 wRC+, .356 ISO) and Tyler Flowers (180 wRC+, .158 ISO) have both punished LHP over the last calendar year, each with an xwOBA above .400 to support efforts. The sample sizes aren’t massive, but Braves will likely receive little consideration against a decent pitcher with a middling 4.36 implied run line tonight.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Flowers, Kurt Suzuki Red Sox are one of two teams above six implied runs against Julio Teheran
The Boston Red Sox (6.16) are one of two teams Vegas projects above six runs tonight with nobody else above 5.6. They host Julio Teheran, who was pitching well for a while, but has just five strikeouts with six walks and three home runs over his last two starts. The issue here is that Teheran has remained somewhat effective against RHBs (.319 wOBA, .294 xwOBA, 25.2 Hard%), which makes it difficult to pay up for Mookie Betts (118 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .350 ISO) due to the cost of pitching tonight, though both are still top overall bats, as they are almost every night. Andrew Benintendi (120 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (115 wRC+, .239 ISO) have improved outlooks at somewhat lower costs, though neither is exactly cheap. LHBs have a .335 wRC+, .358 ISO and 36.7 Hard% against Teheran, a pronounced fly ball pitcher, since last season.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Julio Teheran Daily Bullpen Alert: Not a lot of spots with high bullpen usage expectations on Friday
Half of tonight’s board has averaged 5.2 innings or more per start this season, which could limit tonight’s bullpen usage more than usual. One spot we know where the bullpen will be used is Tampa Bay, but Sergio Romo and Ryan Yarbrough could/should cover most of that game. John Gant, Ross Stripling and and Sal Romano have averaged fewer than five innings per start. Stripling worked his way through 90+ pitches and six innings last time out and has a top matchup with San Diego in which he can go deep. Gant has started just two games with 90 or more pitches each time. Romano is pitching at Coors, so players are attacking no matter what the bullpen looks like. Sam Gaviglio and David Hess could turn it over to the pen early. The Toronto pen has a 4.45 FIP and 12.1 K-BB% that are both bottom third in baseball, while the Baltimore pen, once a strength, has been even worse (4.67 FIP, 11.6 K-BB%). Another spot to watch might be MIlwaukee. Junior Guerra has a 2.98 ERA due for major regression (estimators well above four). If it comes tonight, however, realize that multi-inning weapon Josh Hader has pitched just once this week and could shut down bats for a while if the game remains close.
Four mid-range arms of interest on Friday night
There’s plenty of high priced pitching available tonight and players may wish to pair them with low cost arms on DraftKings to keep offensive options open, but there are also a few mid-range options worth talking about as well. Jon Gray has allowed 11 runs over his last nine innings, but struck out one 10 in one of those starts (at home). In fact, not only is his ground ball rate higher at home (50% to 42.2%), his strikeout rate is 29% at Coors compared to 22.9% on the road. In his last two starts at Coors, he’s struck out 18 Brewers and Angels. The Reds are a below average offense, which Coors makes an above average one, but it’s not the worst matchup on the board. Gray has a 32.8 K% and 15 SwStr% over the last month. The latter is behind just Max Scherzer on tonight’s board. He costs less than $7.5K on either site. If a pitcher has a 21.7 K% and 12.0 SwStr% over the last month and the second highest ground ball rate on the board (54.4%) with one of the lowest rates of Barrels/BBE (4.3%), should there be interest in him against a team with an 87 wRC+ and 6.6 HR/FB in an extremely negative run environment. This pitcher has pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts $7.1K or less on either site…because that pitcher’s name is Clayton Richard and his opponent is the Dodgers. Fernando Romero is coming off his worst start of his four start career, striking out fewer than five and allowing more than one run for the first time against the Brewers. The young flame thrower with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has failed to generate an 11+ SwStr% and/or at least 50 GB% just once in four starts as well. There are certainly some flaws, including a 12.2 BB%, .347 xwOBA and ERA that’s going to regress, but there’s talent here the Mariners have been consistently working their “depth” guys into the starting lineup due to injuries and suspensions. Romero costs $7.7K or less on either site. Ross Stripling worked his way through 96 pitches and six innings last time out. He’s throwing 62% non-fastballs, even in a starting role, and has struck out 21 of his last 61 batters. Of course, the 8.0 SwStr% over the last month does not support that, but he’s facing the Padres (26.4 K% vs RHP) in tonight’s top matchup.
Other tagged players: Ross Stripling, Fernando Romero, Clayton Richard