DFS Alerts

One Potential Stand Alone Arm for Less than $9.5K

You’re very likely, almost certainly paying more than $9K for your FanDuel pitcher tonight. In fact, two of the top three projecting FanDuel pitching values cost more than $10K and you’re probably not using Louis Varland on a single pitcher site if you like money. Especially considering the weather risk in that game. The next three best projected values on FanDuel all cost less than $9.5K, but again, Mitch White is a no go and Tommy Henry has struck out more than four batters just once (although this projected San Francisco lineup has a ton of Ks in it). However, the fifth best projected FD value, costing $9.3K, has a great matchup and some upside. Lucas Giolito believes an injury in his first start derailed a season that has never gotten on track. A 25.3 K% is fine, but lower than his past few seasons with just an average 8.3 BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE. A 5.07 ERA can be blamed on a .351 BABIP, but more was expected than estimators ranging from a 3.65 xFIP to a 4.42 xERA. As is the case around most of the league tonight, Giolito should be expecting some pitcher friendly conditions in Chicago against the lowly Tigers (72 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 6.4 BB%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Giolito is the fourth best projected value for just $7.7K, where he’s likely to be the most popular SP2 on the slate for those who won’t attempt to pay up for both their pitchers.

For the most part, that’s likely it on FanDuel. Both Sean Manaea and Jeffrey Springs are cheaper with above average strikeout rates, but the former has been getting punished and is at Coors, while the latter has a questionable workload and the Blue Jays. Let’s take a look at some potential secondary DraftKings options though. Again, Varland (40 Future Value grade Fangraphs) does have serious weather concerns. He has struck out 10 of 44 batters faced (9.9 SwStr%) with three walks and two barrels (6.5%), which were both home runs. He also has just a 35.5 GB% with a 91.3 mph EV so far. Varland had just four starts (21.1 IP) at AAA with a 28.6 K%. A larger AA workload (105 IP) yielded a 17.8 K-BB%. In a high upside matchup (Angels 93 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP), he is the top projecting DraftKings value for less than $6K.

In the same price range, projecting as the second best DK value, a 14.4 SwStr% has only helped Cody Morris strike out 15 of 68 batters, but that’s because he has a board low 10.3 CStr% and has also walked nine. He’s also allowed six barrels (13.6%), three of which have left the yard. He’s always struck out tons of batters at every level, but maybe these are the things that have held him back. Watch the roof in Texas because an opening would significantly increase the run environment, but it’s otherwise a fine matchup (Rangers 94 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) for the kind of arm you probably want to take a few shots with for the cost.

Giolito is the only remaining pitcher costing less than $9K among the top six projected DK values. The most pitcher friendly weather conditions might be in Kansas City though, where the Mariners visit the Royals. It’s not that a large percentage of Marco Gonzales’s batted balls are barrels. In fact, it’s only 7.1% and he has just an 87.2 mph average exit velocity. However, with just a 13.0 K%, there are an awfully lot of batted balls and 40 of them have been barrels. Six have been home runs over his last three starts. His ERA is only has low as 4.01 because 11 of his 85 runs have been unearned. All estimators are above four and a half, but the Mariners will let him go when things are going right. He actually has 17 Quality Starts. You could get six to seven innings of solid run prevention under these conditions for less than $6K, but the Royals have a 102 wRC+ with just a 20.3 K% vs LHP.

Opposing Gonzales, Brady Singer has a board high 21.6% called strike rate, which is not as reliable as swinging strikes, but allows him to generate a 23.9 K% with a 9.2 SwStr%, which is great when he’s also generating 48.6% of his contact on the ground with few walks (5.6%). The problem is that he’s down to a 17.9 K% and 6.2 SwStr% over the last month. However, he’s gone 13 scoreless innings most recently in his last two starts with 11 Ks against Boston and Detroit. In fact, he actually has 11 Quality Starts his last 13, though estimators are a bit above his 3.07 ERA on the season (3.23 DRA – 3.87 xERA). The Mariners have a 104 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP, but are expected to be without their best player and likely Rookie of the Year winner tonight. Singer is a little bit more expensive than these other arms at $8.6K ($1K more on FanDuel if you’re considering that avenue).

Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher Could Be a Great GPP Play

A 12 game work week ending slate that features pitcher friendly weather around most of the country includes five $10K pitchers (three on DraftKings) and one more exceeding $9K on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board at $11K (though just third most expensive for $700 less on DK), A hand issue, thankfully not an arm one, made Carlos Rodon skip a start. While only five of his last 12 outings have been Quality Starts, he’s failed to punch out at least seven in just two of those and hit double digits in six of his last 10. A 32.8 K% on the season with just 6.0% Barrels/BBE registers non-FIP estimators all within two-tenths of a run of his 2.84 ERA. While the Arizona offense (82 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs LHP) has perked up in the second half, they’ve struggled most against fastballs (-0.43 wFB/C), which are Rodon’s break and butter (60.7%, -1.3 RV/100, 27.7 Whiff%) and also have just a team 50 wRC+ (24.9 K-BB%) over the last week. With the roof being open in Arizona and it being one of the less pitcher friendly environments on this slate, Rodon projects as just the fourth best arm on the board and as a middling value. However, he certainly has the upside to win a GPP and should be heavily featured in multi-entry GPPs if it looks like he may go under-owned. Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog contains a detailed analysis of all six of the above mentioned pitchers tonight.

Ronald Acuña Jr. (back) scratched Thursday.

A Reverse Platoon Split Could Really Hurt This Pitcher Tonight

On a 16 game slate that doesn’t include a single offense reaching four and a half implied runs, the Milwaukee Brewers are currently projecting to be the most popular stack, despite facing one of the top projected pitchers and values on the board. The reasons being that this is a very volatile pitcher in an extremely dangerous park. We find several Milwaukee bats projecting as top overall bats and several projecting as top values on a slate with a lot of expensive pitching. Brewer stacks are currently projecting to be 50% more popular than any other on FanDuel, but are currently projected a bit closer to the pack on DraftKings, although projections are very fluid and updated throughout the day. The Milwaukee Brewers (4.15 team run total) are also projected to smash the slate more often than any other offense and this time simulations like them to do so about 50% more often than any other offense on either site. The top projected value stack on DraftKings appears to be the Houston Astros, which is a new one, while the Cubs and Brewers fight for the top spot in that category on FanDuel.

What all this means in terms of leverage is that the Brewers are the top rated stack no FanDuel, projected to smash the slate more often than they are owned. They are also currently the second rated DraftKings stack, but the Astros actually have a larger positive difference between their Smash% and Own%. Only five of Kyle Bradish’s 16 home runs and seven of his 24 barrels have come in his second major league stint (10 starts). He has struck out just nine of his last 62 batters against tough divisional competition, which brings up down to 21.1% on the year and while he’s down to 7.9% Barrels/BBE, a 90.3 mph EV could be problematic. All non-FIP estimators are more than half a run below his 5.05 ERA, but above four. A larger issue is that he throws the four-seamer 47.7% of the time and it’s his worst graded pitch (2.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .380). Houston hammers fastballs (0.6 wFB/C) since the break. His reverse platoon splits are likely to hurt him here too (RHBs .377 wOBA, .347 xwOBA, LHBs below .300) because the Houston lineup generally contains seven RHBs, while the two lefties are two of the best LHBs in baseball.

The third best rated stack here is a huge surprise because that’s the White Sox with a 3.24 team run total that’s third worst on the board against Shane Bieber. There haven’t been very many chinks in his armor lately, but one possible avenue could be that since the break, the White Sox have been above average against all three of Bieber’s best pitches (slider, cutter, curveball) and each of the first six batters in the projected Chicago (AL) lineup exceed a 105 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.

These Are the Two Lineups That Project for the Most Value

Not a single offense reaches four and a half implied runs, while 37.5% of the pitchers cost more than $10K (on FanDuel). You’re likely in need of some value bats tonight and projections for both sites suggest you can find a lot of that in the Chicago Cubs’ lineup. Mitch Keller has been pitching well and is even one of the top projected values on the board tonight, but he’s not winning a Cy Young anytime soon. There’s room for exposure to both sides of this matchup, if warranted. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .305 and .337 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Zach McKinstry (85 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP), Franmil Reyes (81 wRC+, .148 ISO) and David Bote (109 wRC+, .152 ISO) are universal top projected values all for $2.2K on Fanduel and less than $3K on DraftKings. Ian Happ (120 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a top projected FD value for less than $3K. Alfonso Rivas (102 wRC+) and Esteban Quiroz are top DK projected values for less than $2.5K.

Good news for Milwaukee backers is that you can find several top projected bats and values in this lineup against the very volatile Hunter Greene.Same handed batters exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, while LHBs are between a .300 and .315 xwOBA and xwOBA. Rowdy Tellez (119 wRC+, .273 ISO) is a top projected bat and the top projected FanDuel value for $2.7K. Jace Peterson (103 wRC+, .165 ISO) is a top projected value on both sites for less than $2.5K. Tyrone Taylor (105 wRC+, .224 ISO) costs just $2.3K on DK.

Not a Single Offense Above Four and a Half Implied Runs

On an eight game Thursday night slate, no single offense reaches five implied runs or even four and a half! The top offense on the board is the Yankees against Michael Wacha with a 4.37 team run total. So, do we find Yankees dominating projections tonight? No. Just the one again. Aaron Judge (223 wRC+, .400 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board, but no other Yankees appear among the top 10 projections.

It might be a bit of a surprise which offense we find occupying the most space among the top 10 projected bats, not because the Brewers have just a 4.15 team run total. That’s actually third best on the board tonight. However, Hunter Greene is one of the top projected pitchers and values on the board. He returned to the Cincinnati rotation in a fury, striking out 11 of the 22 Cardinals he faced without a walk. He’s up to a 29.8 K% on the season and down to an 8.9 BB% without a walk in either of his last two. He’s allowed 23 home runs on 27 barrels (9.7%), but just one on four (6.1%) over his last five as well. A 4.97 ERA is nearly a run above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.41 DRA to a 4.09 xERA, but the park is always going to be a problem, especially when you have just a 28.7 GB%. A 30% strikeout rate may be a necessity. We know he has the potential to be extremely good, but we also know he’s extremely volatile at this point in time. It’s actually same handed batters that exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, while LHBs are between a .300 and .315 xwOBA and xwOBA. Rowdy Tellez (119 wRC+, .273 ISO), Willy Adames (121 wRC+, .257 ISO), Christian Yelich (123 wRC+, .154 ISO) and Hunter Renfroe (118 wRC+, .237 ISO) all project near the top of the board.

The only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats tonight is the Houston Astros (4.1). Only five of Kyle Bradish’s 16 home runs and seven of his 24 barrels have come in his second major league stint (10 starts). He has struck out just nine of his last 62 batters against tough divisional competition, which brings him down to 21.1% on the year and while he’s down to 7.9% Barrels/BBE, a 90.3 mph EV could be problematic. All non-FIP estimators are more than half a run below his 5.05 ERA, but above four. A larger issue is that he throws the four-seamer 47.7% of the time and it’s his worst graded pitch (2.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .380). Houston hammers fastballs (0.6 wFB/C) since the break. RHBs have a .377 wOBA and .347 xwOBA against him this year, which is further bad news against this lineup. LHBs are below .300, but that hardly matters against Yordan Alvarez (192 wRC+, .349 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (147 wRC+, .230 ISO), who are top projected bats along with Alex Bregman (159 wRC+, .232 ISO). Jose Altuve is not projected to play tonight, but if he were, he’d likely slot in here too.

Highly Volatile Mid-Range Arms Project as Top Values

The pitcher who flip flops for the top value projection with Brandon Woodruff on Thursday night costs less than $8.5K on either site and this is the pitcher you are looking at if paying down. High risk in a really difficult park, but extremely high upside as well. Hunter Greene returned to the Cincinnati rotation in a fury, striking out 11 of the 22 Cardinals he faced without a walk. He’s up to a 29.8 K% on the season and down to an 8.9 BB% without a walk in either of his last two. He’s allowed 23 home runs on 27 barrels (9.7%), but just one on four (6.1%) over his last five as well. A 4.97 ERA is nearly a run above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.41 DRA to a 4.09 xERA, but the park is always going to be a problem, especially when you have just a 28.7 GB%. A 30% strikeout rate may be a necessity. The Brewers are dangerous (109 wRC+, 23.0 K%, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Greene is a top five projected pitcher overall, in addition to being a top projected value, but the range of outcomes here is obviously very…very wide.

After Woodruff, three more arms project among the top five FanDuel values for $8.5K, but are you going to trust any of them on a single pitcher site? With a 24.6 K% over his last five starts, Mitch Keller sits at 19.5% on the season (11.0 K-BB%) with a 49.4 GB%. He has four straight Quality Starts and you can start to see something special in there. He’s allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are within a quarter of a run of his 4.03 ERA. He is an interesting arm here, for less than $8K in a decent home matchup (Cubs 97 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). On DraftKings, he’s a no-brainer SP2 for less than $6K, but projects as the third best value on either site.

Jose Berrios has struck out just 13 of his last 107 batters and is down to 19.8% on the season with a 90 mph EV and 10% Barrels/BBE. His only small saving grace is that he’s not handing out free passes (5.7 BB%). His 4.99 ERA is above most estimators, but below a 5.19 xERA. Still a decent GPP only play in a spot with some upside (Rays 102 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP) and a substantial park upgrade, Berrios is an extremely volatile arm who could win or lose you a GPP nearly on his own. The problem is that he’s been doing much more of the latter this year. He, too, costs nearly $2K less on DraftKings, but projects as the fourth best value on either site, with potentially an even wider range of outcomes than Greene.

Ranger Suarez is not missing bats this year (19.9 K%, 11.0 K-BB%), but, like his opponent, is still generating lots of weak ground balls (87.2 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.3% 95+ mph EV, 56.3 GB%). His last start against these Braves was his first quality one in nearly a month. Although a bit below other estimators, a 3.53 aligns strongly with his 3.50 xERA. Projections see some upside in an extremely dangerous matchup (Braves 118 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 13.8 HR/FB) in an extremely dangerous park. The upside may not be as high as some of the pitchers above though with just as much risk.

Hayden Wesneski has struck out 18 of 59 batters, but with just a 10.1 SwStr%, while he had just a 22.4 K% at AAA this year. However, he’s also walked just two (7.4% at AAA) with an 83.9 mph EV. Nearly 25 years-old already, Wesneski is a marginally regarded prospect with just a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs). That said, he’s facing the Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP) in Pittsburgh and costs less than $7K on DraftKings.

Lots of Top Priced Pitching, But Few Great Matchups on Thursday

Eight games on an earlier starting Thursday night slate that includes a startling six $10K pitchers (just two on DK). That’s 37.5% of the board. The most expensive arm on either site, Justin Verlander has struck out 25 of his last 48 batters with the small issue of an IL trip in between. With that, he’s up to a healthy 27.2 K% with just a 4.5 BB%, 19.8 IFFB% and 34.9% 95+ mph EV. He threw 79 pitches in his return and having already clinched the division, but still playing for something, we can’t be sure how far the Astros will push him here or in last couple starts. All four of Verlander’s pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. He’s in a decent spot in Baltimore (100 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP), projecting as the second best pitcher on the slate, but merely as a middling value. A full go Verlander could pass this though.

Second most expensive on either site and the only other pitcher exceeding $10K on both, remember back in April when the baseball world was freaking out about Shane Bieber’s velocity? He has 10 straight Quality Starts with estimators around two and a half over that span, recording seventh inning outs in all but one, and a 30.3 K% (15.5 SwStr%) over his last five starts. He’s up to a 20.8 K-BB% on the season and while all estimators exceed his 2.83 ERA, only his xERA (3.47) does so by more than half a run with a 90 mph EV. One point to watch is that since the break, the White Sox have been above average against all three of Bieber’s best pitches (slider, cutter, curveball). While they have a 95 wRC+, 5.9 BB% and 9.2 HR/FB vs RHP, they don’t strike out very much (20.8%). Bieber is essentially tied for the third best projection on DraftKings, but has that alone on FanDuel. He, too, projects as a middling value though.

Max Fried strikes out batters at an above average rate (23.2%), but the real keys to his game are weak ground balls (86.3 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.4% 95+ mph EV, 51.1 GB%) and control (4.5 BB%). He’s allowed more than three runs only twice since his first start of the season, but his 2.52 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 2.79 FIP to a 3.35 SIERA. All five of his pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. Tough matchup (Phillies 117 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP) in a tough park (Phillies 14.0 HR/FB at home) with more than a $2K discrepancy in price between sites. Fried projects in an essential tie for fifth best on either site (though with different pitchers), but as a much better value (fifth best) on DraftKings for just $8.3K.

Brandon Woodruff has four Quality Starts in his last five, all of them with two runs or less and three of them with double digit strikeouts. Up to a 29.3 K% (22.4 K-BB%) with a 79.7 Z-Contact%, his 3.26 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. He has a great matchup (Reds 84 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) in an awful park, but still projects as the top arm on the board and as a top two value on either site (best on DraftKings).

Within $300 of $10K on either site, Julio Urias has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 straight starts (10 Quality Starts). Although his 2.27 ERA is well more than a run below most estimators, it aligns within half a run of a 2.71 xERA, supported by a strong contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 29.8% 95+ mph EV), alongside his 18.5 K-BB%. The Arizona offense still struggles against LHP (83 wRC+, 23.2 K%), but Urias has to be ultra-efficient to pitch deep into games. He is tied for the third best projected DraftKings arm, but also tied for the fifth best FanDuel projection and is a slightly better projected value on the former, though not much better than a middle of the board value on either.

Zac Gallen’s scoreless inning streak was snapped at Coors two starts back, despite 11 strikeouts, and the Padres snapped a seven game consecutive Quality Start streak last time out. On the season, he bears a very healthy 19.4 K-BB% and while his 2.52 ERA is half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.03 FIP and DRA to a 3.41 SIERA and xFIP, Gallen has the best defense in baseball behind him (35 Runs Prevented). His .237 BABIP is still well below what his defense allows (.284). All four of his pitches grade better than -0.5 RV/100 via Statcast. Against the Dodgers (123 wRC+, 21.4 K%), he projects in a tie for the seventh best on the board, but is a bottom half projected value on either site.

The start of Giants-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Giants-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Spencer Steer scratched Wednesday

Spencer Steer scratched Wednesday

Two Offenses Battle Atop Tonight's Stacking Projections

With many of the most expensive pitchers in extremely difficult spots, it seems players will consider offense the priority tonight, as early stacking projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest the offense with the top implied run line by half a run (Dodgers 5.56) will be the most popular stack on the board, though not too far ahead of the Giants (5.06), who may have to deal with some nasty weather at Coors or even the Rangers (4.59), who hit LHP really well (115 wRC+) and will be facing a young lefty who has walked more batters than he’s struck out (-1.5 K-BB%). Early simulations also suggest the Dodgers will smash the slate about 50% more often than the Giants and Judges…er, Yankees, at a rate near 20% of the time. The Giants are projected as the top value stack, though by a much larger margin on FanDuel than they are over the A’s on DraftKings. To see the surprising stack that rates extremely well against an extreme fly ball pitcher tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Lineup Projects for Plenty of Value Against Pitcher with More Walks Than Ks

Tucker Davidson has faced a good amount of batters (201) with more walks (30) than strikeouts (27). With a -1.5 K-BB% (91.9 Z-Contact%), even 5.0% Barrels/BBE can only help you so much. While his 6.96 ERA is above all estimators, a 4.85 xERA is the lowest of those by nearly a full run and today’s projections really like the value of Texas bats against him on both sites. RHBs have a .377 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against him, while LHBs have been even better (.377 wOBA, .354 xwOBA). Leody Taveras (98 wRC+ vs LHP this season) is the top projected DraftKIngs value and one of two Ranger top 10 projected values on both sites for $2.2K on either. Sam Huff (84 wRC+) is the other, costing just the minimum. Josh Jung (166 wRC+, .381 ISO) also costs just $2.2K on DraftKings.

Although Jordan Lyles projects as one of the better pitchers and values in a great matchup tonight, Detroit batters are still cheap enough that DraftKings projections still like their value against a pitcher who has allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against. Victor Reyes (81 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (73 wRC+) and Harold Castro (84 wRC+) all cost no more than $2.1K. Cabrera is also the 10th best projected FanDuel value at the same cost.

Joc Pederson (141 wRC+, .254 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and the top projected FanDuel value for $2.7K, while LaMonte Wade Jr. (110 wRC+, .203 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat an FD value for exactly $3K. Luis Gonzalez (110 wRC+, .135 ISO) is the only top 10 projecting DraftKings value for $2.1K. LHBs have a .366 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against German Marquez this year.

A pair of middle of the order Twins project as top FanDuel values too. Since an encouraging start to the season, Daniel Lynch was on an 11 start stretch with a 9.8 K-BB% and 9.0% Barrels/BBE before striking out eight of 22 Twins with two home runs, but just a single barrel. He has just a 12.2 K-BB% with a 47.4% hard hit rate and 91 mph EV on the season with just one Quality Start since April. Estimators below his 5.15 ERA still range from a 4.28 xFIP to a 5.02 xERA. He does not have a single pitch graded better than average by Statcast this year, while all batters exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Nick Gordon 79 wRC+) and Gary Sanchez (67 wRC+) haven’t done much against southpaws this year, but cost $2.2K each. Batting sixth, Gilberto Celestino (62 wRC+) is a min-priced top projected DraftKings value.

The Non-Coors Offense That Dominates Projections

The Los Angeles Dodgers clear the rest of the slate by exactly half a run with a 5.56 team run total on Wednesday night’s nine game slate with the Giants (5.06) the only other offense exceeding five runs, while three others, in a group that does not include the Rockies, are above four and a half implied runs. Perhaps the 59 degree forecast with nearly double digit winds in from right-field lower expectations at Coors tonight, though Weather Edge currently suggests just the opposite somehow. We’ll have to keep an eye on that through the evening. The top projected bat on the board for the second night in a row is the guy who hit number 60 last night, though with the Yankees sitting at 4.87 implied runs, no other Yankee bats can be found projected among the top 10 against Roansy Contreras, a highly regarded pitching prospect, who has had some rookie struggles.

What we do find among the top 10 projected bats is the name Bumgarner in the opposing pitcher column several times. That’s because Madison is facing the Dodgers and they place four batters among the top 10 projections on either site tonight. Bumgarner has struck out just 10.5% of batters over the last month and it’s been 10 starts since he last allowed fewer than four runs. He doesn’t have a single estimator more than a quarter of a run below his 5.01 ERA, but has a couple more than half a run higher. He’s up to 9.9% Barrels/BBE with a 90.6 mph EV and 15.8 K% on the season, while RHBs have a .373 wOBA and .370 xwOBA against him (LHBs .330 wOBA, .340 xwOBA). Projections love the top four of the standard Dodger lineup, which includes Mookie Betts (185 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP this season), Freddie Freeman (131 wRC+, .154 ISO), Trea Turner (164 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Will Smith (136 wRC+, .162 ISO).

Within the remaining five spots, we find a pair of Giants and Angels. The latter pair is obviously Mike Trout (161 wRC+, .344 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (157 wRC+, .293 ISO), despite the Angels on the bottom half of the board with a team run total of just 3.91. Dane Dunning continues to generate ground balls at a good clip (53.4%), but after a strong start, a 6.4 K-BB% over his 17 starts has him down to 10.4% on the year, while he’s also allowed seven home runs on 14 barrels (13.9%) over his last six starts, despite sustaining a 51.5 GB% over this span. Dunning’s 4.49 ERA matches his FIP and is within half a run of all remaining estimators. His only Quality Start in his last seven took place against the A’s. LHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .335 wOBA, but .315 xwOBA.

German Marquez has a three seven inning Quality Starts with no more than two runs in three of his last five starts. He’s allowed 15 runs over 10 innings in the other two. He certainly hasn’t been as bad as his 5.14 ERA this year (67.8 LOB%) with 18 of his 26 barrels leaving the yard, which is good for a 17.5 HR/FB, but just 7.0% Barrels/BBE. However, the strikeout rate is just 18.4% (10.2 K-BB%) and all estimators exceed four. It might be a surprise that his best pitch has been the curveball (22%, -1.2 RV/100, 38 Whiff%, .188 wOBA, .202 xwOBA) because severe altitude is supposed to ruin those things, but it hasn’t and the Giants have been the third worst offense against curveballs (-0.94 wCB/C). It is Coors, though, and LHBs have torched him (.366 wOBA, .343 xwOBA). Joc Pederson (141 wRC+, .254 ISO) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (110 wRC+, .203 ISO) project to do the most damage here.

Could These Pitchers Be Usable on a Single Pitcher Site?

If you’ve read today’s PlateIQ live blog, you already know who the top projected value on the slate is, but there is only one other pitcher costing more than $9K on FanDuel currently projecting among the top 12 values. Considering it’s only a nine game slate, that’s two-thirds of a board, so which of those pitchers might be usable on a single pitcher site. Jordan Lyles has just an 18.2 K% (11.1 K-BB%), while allowing 55 barrels (10.6%), but has allowed just five of his 23 home runs at home, thanks to the dimensional changes in Baltimore. However, all that hard contact has resulted in a .323 BABIP with a 4.70 ERA that’s still within half a run of all estimators. Lyles has allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts. This is probably all as awful as it sounds, but even worse is the offense he’ll be facing (Tigers 72 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Not only does this make Lyles the second best projected value on either site for less than $7.5K, but he’s even the fourth best projected pitcher overall on FanDuel. For tonight and tonight only, you have permission to use Jordan Lyles on FanDuel.

Tonight’s third best projected value on either site costs $6K or less, but Tucker Davidson has faced a good amount of batters (201) with more walks (30) than strikeouts (27). With a -1.5 K-BB% (91.9 Z-Contact%), even 5.0% Barrels/BBE can only help you so much. While his 6.96 ERA is above all estimators, a 4.85 xERA is the lowest of those by nearly a full run. Sure, it’s a great park if the roof remains closed with a pitcher friendly umpire, but the Rangers have a 115 wRC+, 22.9 K% and 16.6 HR/FB vs LHP. It’s not without upside, but seems more risk than reward.

Opposite Davidson, Dane Dunning continues to generate ground balls at a good clip (53.4%), but after a strong start, a 6.4 K-BB% over his 17 starts has him down to 10.4% on the year, while he’s also allowed seven home runs on 14 barrels (13.9%) over his last six starts, despite sustaining a 51.5 GB% over this span. Dunning’s 4.49 ERA matches his FIP and is within half a run of all remaining estimators. His only Quality Start in his last seven took place against the A’s. The Angels have a 93 wRC+ with a 27.0 K% vs RHP and Dunning is within $300 of $7K on either site.

In his first start in over three months, Bailey Ober dominated Cleveland, striking out five of 19 batters, allowing only a single walk and hit. A league average strikeout rate (21.1%) with great control (5.0 BB%) seems like it should create better non-FIP estimators than those ranging from a 4.20 SIERA to a 4.41 xERA, especially with a 32.5% hard hit rate, but an extremely low ground ball rate (25.9%) will do that. He’s allowed 11 barrels (9.4%), though just two have left the yard. Ober has also only completed six innings twice in eight starts. The slider has been a weapon (22.8%, -2.4 RV/100, 33.8 Whiff%), but that’s the only pitch the Royals (88 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP) have done well against since the break (0.7 wSL/C). However, this is a park where his extreme fly ball lean could work (Royals 7.7 HR/FB at home) and he is $7.7K or less.

Dustin May has struck out 25 of the 105 batters he’s faced, but also walked 12. Also, nine of those strikeouts and just two of those walks came in his first outing against the Marlins. That makes it just a 6.9 K-BB% over his last four starts, though the velocity did bump back up again last start. He has generated 50.8% of his contact on the ground with an 87.3 mph EV. His 3.46 ERA lines up well with a 3.40 xERA, but all additional estimators are more than a quarter run higher, some above four. May is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and the Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP. They also have a league low 59 wRC+ with a 25.3 K-BB% over the last week.

Tough Matchup for Tonight's Most Expensive Pitcher

A nine game Wednesday night slate includes a trio of $10K arms, but also two more in the $9K range on both sites, but are they all usable? We can start by saying that no pitcher reaches $10K on both sites, but at $10.4K on FanDuel, Lance Lynn has a 26.7 K-BB% over his last 12 starts, which now makes up two-thirds of his season, walking just seven batters over that entire span. He has five straight Quality Starts with two runs or less and finally has his ERA below four (3.99), which shows you how poorly he started. All non-FIP estimators are at least half a run lower, as 16 of his 21 barrels (7.1%) have been home runs. The four-seamer has been his best pitch (45.4%, -0.7 RV/100, 35.4 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .270), while the contact prone Guardians (103 wRC+, 17.2 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) have struggled against fastballs since the break (-0.56 wFB/C). The workload and run prevention gets Lynn the third best projection on FanDuel, but the potential lack of strikeouts drops him to sixth on DraftKings. However, the $1K higher price tag has him projecting as the second worst value on FanDuel, but just sixth worst on DraftKings. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the top projected one in a great matchup, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ live blog.