DFS Alerts

Top Three Projected FanDuel Values Cost No More Than $9K

The top three projected values on FanDuel cost no more than $9K, while the next three each cost more than that. Are all of these pitchers lesser costing pitchers single pitcher site rosterable though? A top two projecting value and overall pitcher on either site, George Kirby has struck out just for of his last 39 batters with as many walks and has exceeded 88 pitches in just one of his last 13 starts. He’s somehow able to overcome these conservative pitch count restrictions to get through six innings with extreme efficiency (24.5 K%, 3.6 BB%), but that hasn’t exactly been the case most recently and the Mariners certainly aren’t going to start pushing him here with more games to play after Wednesday. They can only effect whether they travel to Toronto or Cleveland. A 3.21 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. That said, the matchup is more than ideal (Tigers 74 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). His bread and butter has been his four-seamer (45.3%, -2 RV/100, 27.1 Whiff%) and the Tigers are the fifth worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.6 wFB/C). The workload may still be concerning enough to be cautious here.

Projecting as the second best FanDuel value, but just seventh best DraftKings one for $700 more, immediately after showing us his best against the Marlins and Pirates (12 IP – 2 R – 17 K), Carlos Carrasco has shown us his worst the last two times out against the Brewers and Marlins (7 IP – 7 R – 6 K). He’s been a bit banged up recently and his season numbers are not up to his past standards, but a 17.4 K-BB% is more than fine for a back end starter. All estimators are within half a run of his 3.95 ERA with a 4.09 xERA the only one above it. The Nationals (95 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP) have been worst against changeups than any other pitch since the break (-0.32 wCH/C), but does Washington have enough LHBs for Carrasco to fully exploit with his best pitch (24.7%, -1.1 RV/100, 32.2 Whiff%, .260 wOBA, .273 xwOBA)? This is a spot where we’re perhaps more concerned with performance than motivation, as the Mets still have a sliver of life in the division that’s worth fighting for until they’re officially eliminated, which could be tonight. Carrasco is the seventh best projected pitcher overall.

The sixth best projected pitcher overall, but a top three projected value, including the top projected DK value ($7.7K), Patrick Sandoval hasn’t gone six innings in four straight starts. His 23.7 K% is 2.2 points lower than last season, while he still struggled with control (9.6 BB% this year, 9.7% career). He has, however, managed contact very well (6.0%, 34.8% 95+ mph EV). In fact, 12.5% of his season barrels came in his last start, while 25% of them have come in his last four. The shorter outings may have some purpose behind them, although he did throw 94 pitches last time out, also against these A’s (88 wRC+, 22.6 K% vs LHP). While just eight of his 24 barrels have left the yard, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.03 ERA. Also, 14.2% of his runs have been unearned. There’s neither reason to push, nor conserve him here, so if we’re assuming a standard workload, Sandoval may be viable on FanDuel tonight, but is certainly an SP2 option.

Considering some other SP2 types, It might be fairly useless to quote Jose Berrios’s numbers at this point (19.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 4.11 SIERA to a 5.22 xERA). It would probably more benefit GPP players to point out that he has 10 Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts and has allowed at least four runs with less than five strikeouts 10 times also. Last time out, he struck out seven Yankees in 5.2 innings, but also allowed five more runs. Interestingly, the only pitch the Orioles (102 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP) have been below average against since the break is sliders and Berrios does not throw one. Berrios is cheap ($6.2K), but this game seems more likely not to play than to play tonight.

Adrian Martinez has allowed 13 home runs on 17 barrels (10%) over 11 starts. Sure, there’s probably some home run regression to come, but none of that is good and mostly wipes out what he’s accomplished with a respectable 13.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four or a single contact inclusive one below five. His slider does have a 40% whiff rate with a wOBA and xwOBA below .300, so perhaps he should throw it more than 20.7% of the time, especially against the Angels (-0.31 wSL/C since the break), who have a 96 wRC+ and 26.7 K% vs RHP, while Martinez costs less than $6K.

Bailey Ober struck out a season high 10 White Sox (93 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP) in his last start. In fact, that represents more than one-fifth of his strikeouts on the season through 10 starts. With elite control (4.8 BB%), he’s shot up to a 22.6 K%. That sets his contact neutral estimators, but only three of his 17 barrels (11.4%) have left the yard, resulting in a massive gap between a 2.74 FIP and 4.78 xERA. No non-FIP estimators are below four. Ober costs $6.9K and the White Sox are coldest offense on the slate (45 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 5.0 HR/FB last seven days).

At Least a Pair of Top Arms Will Be Pitching With Motivation Tonight

A large Monday night 11 game slate to start the last half week of the season includes a lot of things and not all of them good. There’s some weather, both pitcher friendly and potentially game washing. We have pitchers returning from injury and those just looking to get or stay on schedule for the post-season with few games that actually mean much. We should expect everyone to compete while they are out there, but might there be some more conservative pitch counts this week? We have five $10K pitchers tonight (four on each site) and another one exceeding $9K on either site. Let’s try to figure out which ones may excel and which aren’t even considerable.

As of Sunday, only one major league pitcher (Carlos Rodon) has more fWAR than Aaron Nola. He’s gone at least seven innings in 15 of his 31 starts with not only a 28.8 K%, but elite control (3.7 BB%), while allowing just a 31.7% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV). His biggest problem is something he can’t do anything about. The defense behind him is at -29 Runs Prevented, which is second worst in baseball by a single RP. As such, all estimators are more than half a run below his 3.36 ERA, but that defense isn’t going anywhere. The Phillies have not yet locked up the last wildcard and have a tough path through Houston (108 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP), but with everything locked up, they have been frequently resting people. Nola projects just inside the top five and as a middling value, but this could be a bit light and make him a great GPP play if it lowers his ownership.

Nola carries the highest price tag on the board, but $100 less on FanDuel and most expensive on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff has double digit strikeouts in four straight starts (30.6 K% on the year) and five straight Quality Starts with a total of five runs allowed over 33 innings. With just a 6.8 BB% and 7.1% Barrels/BBE, all of Woodruff’s estimators are within a quarter run of his 3.05 ERA, including a nearly matching 3.04 SIERA. The Brewers are the team chasing the Phillies, so you better believe this team is motivated in this spot. It may not affect their performance, but Woodruff won’t be coddled here. In a marginal spot against the Diamondbacks (97 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), he projects as the top arm on the board and as the fourth best value on either site.

Third most expensive on either site, Lance McCullers Jr. has a 26 K%, but 12.1 BB% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.1%). All estimators are more than a run above his 2.38 ERA (85.8 LOB%), but the Astros are just looking to keep him healthy and on schedule, while perhaps working on throwing more strikes. He could get a full workload, but he could also get pulled relatively early. The Phillies also represent a difficult matchup (103 wRC+, 22.1, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). He projects as just the eight best pitcher tonight and a bottom half of the board value in a spot where he may carry more risk than reward.

Costing $10.1K on DraftKings, but $1.5K less on FanDuel, Tonly Gonsolin spent all of September on the IL and faced just six minor league batters before the season ended. He’s certainly not up for anything even close to a full workload in this spot, projecting as one of the worst pitchers and values on the board tonight against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 22.4 K%).

Joe Musgrove is a pitcher of many strengths with an above average strikeout rate (24.7%), great control (5.6 BB%) and an attractive contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 33% 95+ mph EV), resulting in estimators ranging from a 3.24 DRA to a 3.65 FIP that are a bit above his 3.03 ERA. With over 70% of his barrels leaving the yard, his 12.9 HR/FB probably merits some regression though. Up until nearly the All-Star break Musgrove was a virtual lock for six innings, but he’s only accomplished that twice over his last seven starts. The Giants have a 99 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP, while the Padres will be on the road for their Wild Card series, but it has not yet been determined who they’ll face. Is it worth pushing Musgrove in order to travel to face the Mets rather than the Cardinals? Probably not, though he may get in a fully standard workload tonight. Assuming so projects him as the third best pitcher on either site and third best DK value (sixth best on FD).

Within $300 of $9.5K on either site, Luis Severino has struck out 10 of 35 batters since returning from the IL, but has thrown just 64 and 76 pitches in two outings. This is a mere tune up for the post-season. Severino does come into this start with an impressive 27.8 K% and a 3.41 that nearly matches his 3.42 SIERA and is in a favorable spot (Rangers 92 wRC+, 24.3 K%) in a great park if the roof remains closed. He projects as a top five arm and as either the fifth or sixth best value, but also carries significant workload risk, though with higher matchup upside than McCullers.

Justin Turner (shin) scratched Saturday

Justin Turner (shin) scratched Saturday

Emmanuel Rivera (forearm) scratched Saturday

Emmanuel Rivera (forearm) scratched Saturday

The start of Orioles-Yankees will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Game update: The start of Orioles-Yankees will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Phillies-Nationals Game 2 postponed Friday due to rain

Game update: Phillies-Nationals Game 2 postponed Friday due to rain

This Offense Projects for More Value Than Any Other Stack

With the Dodgers owning the top team run total on the slate (5.55) by nearly a full run, you’d expect them to be the most popular stack on the board and early stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) do suggest they will be, but only on FanDuel currently and not even by very much. They are the only stack that projects double digit ownership (only on FD), but the Angels are fairly close on their heels with the Phillies actually projecting to be slightly more popular on DraftKings, where no team is in double digits right now. The Dodgers do project to smash the slate most often, but by a wider margin on FanDuel with the Phillies not too far behind on DraftKings. The biggest question is how all this changes is Hurricane Ian wipes the Phillies and Nats out. Where we get the most separation is in the value column, where the same stack appears the top on both sites and that’s the Minnesota Twins in Detroit tonight. They currently project twice as much value as any other stack on FanDuel and twice as much value as every stack other than the Phillies on DraftKings. Tonight’s top rated stack may not be who you’d expect. For more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Offense Also Dominates Hitter Value Projections

The biggest question when filtering LineupHQ by P/S is if the Dodgers project so well (nearly a full run separated from the rest of the board with only one other offense above four and a half implied runs) that the top projecting bats on the board also projected as top values. The answer, at least on FanDuel, is a resounding yes. Joey Gallo (100 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only Dodger bat projecting as a top 10 value and only projects outside the top 10 bats overall while the second game of the doubleheader in Washington is still on the board. Costing $1K less on FanDuel, Gallo projects as a top 10 bat and value. Within $100 of $3K, both Max Muncy (113 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Will Smith (125 wRC+, .209 ISO) also project as top 10 bats and values. If you need to go even cheaper, Chris Taylor (97 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Gavin Lux (122 wRC+, .137 ISO) project as top FanDuel values for just $2.1K as well. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .347 and .368 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

We also find a pair of Seattle Mariners projecting among the top 10 FanDuel values against Ken Waldichuk, who has struck out a respectable 20.6% of the batters he’s faced, while walking just 6.9% through his first five starts. However, the contact profile has been a complete disaster (90.3 mph EV, 15.5% Barrels/BBE, 47.9% 95+ mph EV). RHBs have a .439 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him. Dylan Moore (146 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .147 ISO) cost not much more than the minimum.

On DraftKings, a pair of Washington bats (Victor Robles & Josh Palacios) project as strong values for $2.1K or less against Noah Syndergaard, but Hurricane Ian may have some say on whether that game gets played or not. The only other pair of teammates projecting as top 10 DraftKings values are in Detroit tonight. Tyler Alexander tied a season high with five strikeouts last time out, only the second time he’s done so. As a matter of fact, he’s generated only 17 more strikeouts (50) than barrels (33) with both rates barely in double digits (13.2 K%, 10.7% Barrels/BBE). His 4.68 ERA is actually below all estimators. RHBs have done well against him this year (.337 wOBA, .345 xwOBA). Gary Sanchcez (65 wRC+, .126 ISO) costs $3K and Gilberto Celestino (68 wRC+) the minimum.

Bats From This City Dominate Hitter Projections

On a 13 (or maybe 14 game DK slate if the weather cooperates) that includes lots of pitcher friendly weather and some great pitching, the Los Angeles Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by nearly a full run with a 5.55 run team total and the Toronto Blue Jays (4.62) the only other team reaching four and a half runs. Let’s see what current PlateIQ projections have to say about this. Yup, it’s exactly what you expected. Los Angeles bats dominate the discussion. But hold on, we’re not only talking about Dodgers. But..yeah, mostly Dodgers. Four of the top 10 projected DraftKings bats are Dodgers and six of the top 10 on FanDuel are also Dodgers. You’ll see the reason for the difference in a minute or two.

Chad Kuhl has allowed at least three runs in 12 straight starts, completing six innings just once over that span, allowing 17 home runs on 23 barrels (12.2%) with just a 9.3 K-BB% (which is actually better than his 8.9% season rate). His last decent start was actually a three-hit shutout of the Dodgers at Coors because baseball is so weird. Estimators ranging from a 4.70 xFIP to a 5.22 xERA aren’t too far below his 5.45 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .347 and .368 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Freddie Freeman (171 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP this year), Mookie Betts (133 wRC+, .252 ISO), Will Smith (125 wRC+, .209 ISO), Max Muncy (113 wRC+, .194 ISO), Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .141 ISO) and Joey Gallo (100 wRC+, .217 ISO) all project tremendously well tonight, while the only problem for players is that you can only stack a certain amount of Dodgers. Then again, with everything wrapped up, who even knows if they’ll all play?

The other pair of Los Angeles bats projecting among the top five tonight are Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .278 ISO) and Mike Trout (161 wRC+, .345 ISO). Glenn Otto has struck out just eight of his last 62 batters with just a 32.7 GB% and 91.1 mph EV. With just a 6.7 K-BB%, all estimators are above his 4.73 ERA. He does have a rather wide actual split, but batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .345 xwOBA against him.

The reason only four Dodgers project among the top 10 on DraftKings is because Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber take their place. This game is only available on DraftKings, the forecast suggests there’s a good chance it doesn’t even get played and we have no idea who’s even pitching for the Nationals yet. So, we may have six Dodgers projected among the top 10 on DraftKings too when all is said and done. Of course, the top projected bat on the board, no matter who he faces, whenever he’s on the slate these days is Aaron Judge (220 wRC+, .389 ISO). Tonight’s victim is Jordan Lyles (10.5% Barrels/BBE with just an 18 K%). He’s allowed 19 home runs on the road and RHBs have a .331 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him.

Several Top Projecting Values Costing Less than $9K

Jacob deGrom is the EST of MLB tonight. The highEST costing and the bEST projecting overall and in terms of value on either site, but there may be lineups where you may not want to pay well over $11K and even if you do on DraftKings, you may be looking for a much cheaper SP2, so let’s try to find the best values behind deGrom. Five of the top seven projected FanDuel values cost $8K or less tonight, but are these single site pitchers? Reid Detmers projects as a top four value on either site for less than $8K. He’s a late addition to this slate, but has struck out just eight of his last 70 batters. He had issues missing bats earlier in the season that seemed to improve after a short trip to the minors, but have now cropped up again to end the season. He’s also in a very difficult spot (Rangers 116 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 16.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year). He may be a difficult roster even on a two pitcher site at this point.

Domingo German has produced six Quality Starts over his last eight, but that’s mostly due to a .232 BABIP and 79.5 LOB%. The only real problem in his profile though, is that he’s not striking batters out this year (18%). He does have a perfectly average 10.6 SwStr% with great control (5.6 BB%) and has even only allowed 12 barrels (6.3%), so perhaps there’s hope, but all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.30 ERA with a 3.84 xERA the only one within a run. Yankee Stadium is not a positive run environment and the weather is expected to be pitcher friendly, which makes German somewhat interesting in a matchup against the Orioles (103 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP). The Yankees have nothing to play for, but he may be pitching for a post-season role. Still, we’re probably more comfortable with German as an SP2, though he’s more expensive and projects as a worse value on DraftKings.

Aaron Civale is another very late addition to this slate. He projects as a better value on FanDuel too, despite only a $100 difference in cost. Civale has a more than respectable 17.4 K-BB% and early season contact issues have settled down with just four over his last eight starts, but only worked his way up to 75 pitches in his second start back from the IL. Cleveland just wants to get him ready for post-season play here and the matchup is not even very high upside (Royals 90 wRC+, 21.8 K%). Civale may still be fine for the price, but the ceiling is probably capped.

Costing $300 less on DraftKings, Alex Cobb still projects as a much better FanDuel value for exactly $8K. He has just a 20.4 K% over his last seven starts, bringing his season rate down to 23.7%, but by underlying numbers, it’s been a great season. Cobb has kept 61% of his contact on the ground, allowing just 3.7% Barrels/BBE and all estimators are more than four-tenths of a run below his 3.67 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP and there is nothing at stake in this game. Again, fine in an SP2 spot, but lacking the upside of more expensive pitchers tonight.

For less than $8K, Jack Flaherty projects as a top third of the board value on either site, but this is mostly due to name value. Even the few times he’s been kind of good (like striking out nine Padres last time out), he still hasn’t been very good (walking four Padres with a 90.9 mph EV). It was the first time he’s completed six innings all year, while a 4.3 K-BB% and all estimators except for a 4.67 DRA suggest things should actually be worse than his 4.97 ERA. He’s walked six of the 38 Pirates he’s faced this year, while striking out only three. Can he? Sure. Should you expect him to? Probably not.

On the other side of that game though, Johan Oviedo does not have a problem missing bats (24.9 K%, 11.9 SwStr%) and has managed contact well (87 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), but does have a tendency to lose the strike zone (10.7 BB%). He completed six innings (actually seven) for the first time last time out and it took extreme efficiency to do so (three hits, no walks and seven strikeouts against the Cubs). The great news is that a 3.02 xERA is even lower than his 3.11 ERA, though all other estimators are at least half a run higher. There will certainly be the “revenge” motive against a team that has nothing left to play for this weekend. It’s a great park with great pitching weather and Oviedo costs just $6K on DraftKings. Also potentially underpriced on DraftKings and much cheaper than they are on FanDuel, Merrill Kelly is up to 25.9 K% and 19.0 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (22.2% and 14.7% on the season). He’s also completed seven innings in 11 of his last 18 starts (less than two innings just twice). The Giants have a 98 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP. Joe Ryan has pushed his strikeout rate up to 24.7%, but a ground ball rate that’s just slightly higher (27.7%) has resulted in 34 barrels (8.9%), although he’s also generated just as many infield flies (33), which puts his 3.70 ERA in line with a 3.63 xERA. He’s in Detroit (74 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP).

When a 16.3 SwStr% Is Your Floor...

We enter the last Friday of the baseball season with a 13 game slate on FanDuel and 14 on DraftKings, which could become 13 with the second game of the double-header in Washington currently in the path of Hurricane Ian. Thankfully, that appears to be the only area at risk tonight. This slate includes an overwhelming seven $10K pitchers (five on DraftKings), but no others exceeding $9K on both sites. There is some talent on this board, but also increased risk at the end of the year.

It was bound to happen eventually, but nobody guessed that the A’s would be the team to spoil Jacob deGrom. Five runs over four innings, striking out just five of 22 batters, while doubling his season walk total to eight. Sure, he also allowed six runs over his previous 11 innings to the Cubs and Pirates, but with 23 strikeouts (43 batters faced) and no walks, while eventually tiring in the sixth inning. Something to watch is that the velocity has been dipping a bit, but that could just be his arm getting used to a regular pitching schedule after so much missed time plus a shortened 2020. The 16.3 SwStr% against the A’s was his worst of the season. DeGrom has a 38.2 K-BB%, 73.7% Z-Contact% and 29.7% hard hit rate. All of it’s still absurd. His 2.93 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 1.60 xFIP to a 2.20 DRA. This game certainly means something in Atlanta. It’s a park downgrade and there are expected to be some winds (10 mph out to CF), but this game/series is otherwise expected to escape Ian at this point. Atlanta is a dangerous, but high upside matchup (107 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP). DeGrom is the most expensive pitcher, the top projected one and the top projected value on both sites and most of those things by a wide margin tonight. For a detailed breakdown of all seven pitchers hitting $10K tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Trayce Thompson (personal) scratched Thursday.

Lineup update: Steven Wilson will start for the Padres on Thursday.

Randal Grichuk (illness) scratched Wednesday

Stacking Projections Don't Suggest Clear Dominance on Tonight's Slate

Current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest that no single offense is going to be overwhelmingly popular. On both sites, we see the four offenses exceeding four and a half team run totals atop the ownership column, but very closely packed together without a single stack reaching a double digit Own% on FanDuel right now and Angels barely leading the pack on DraftKings not much higher. Nor do we have a clear indication of which offense is expected to smash the slate most often. The Braves currently top the column for the second day in a row, but by a very small margin (smaller still on DraftKings) over the Giants and Red Sox. The A’s and Twins project for twice as much value as any other stack on DraftKings, while the Giants are the far and away top projected value stack on FanDuel.

We’re pretty much sticking to those four top offenses tonight, but what do these jumbled and tightly packed projections think are the top rated stacks tonight? Without any offense projecting for overwhelming ownership and the Braves still projected to smash the slate a bit more often than any other offense, they are currently the top rated stack on either site, followed by the Giants on FanDuel, but Yankees on DraftKings. Josiah Gray is allowing bomb after bomb (37 home runs) and sure, there’s probably some regression coming with only six more barrels, but he’s also striking out batters at just a 12.8% clip over his last five starts. There’s no further explanation necessary as to why the Braves are the top stack tonight.

The Giants probably don’t need much explanation either. They’re facing Jose Urena in a park that may be one of the more hitter friendly environments on the slate for a change (San Francisco) and with their platoon heavy approach, they have several quality LHBs on the cheap. Especially on FanDuel. Occasionally, the affordability of bats will work against them, making them too popular, but projections don’t see that to be the case…for now.

The Yankees have a 3.89 team run total that sits in the middle of the board and after clinching the division last night, the lineup could even be a bit light tonight. However, Mitch White has struck out just six of his last 56 batters and is down to just an 18.2 K% on the season. RHBs have actually been better against him (.336 wOBA, .320 xwOBA), which probably won’t work out well against the Yankees. We don’t know who the Yankees will rest tonight, but there might be a riot if Aaron Judge is on the bench and that’s just the Maris family, who have been following the Yankees around for a week, waiting for Judge to do something besides walk.