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This Already Confirmed Lineup Projects Best on the Final Regular Season Slate

Lineups are flying in as this is being written. It would be impossible to keep up on all of them and get this information out before lock, so make sure to check that all players mentioned below are actually playing. Teams playing on Friday may be most likely to rest regulars. No offense reaches five implied runs on a 14 game slate, but the Dodgers come closest (4.98) with on other team reaching four and a half, but that information is less useful today than it usually is. The good news is that the Dodgers have already confirmed a fairly standard lineup that includes Mookie Betts (177 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP this season), Trea Turner (149 wRC+, .247 ISO), Freddie Freeman (126 wRC+, .146 ISO) and Will Smith (158 wRC+, .220 ISO) as top 10 projected bats against Austin Gomber (RHBs .383 wOBA, .351 xwOBA – LHBs below .300). We just can’t promise they’ll play the entire game.

The only other lineup including multiple top 10 projected bats (also already confirmed) is…the Cincinnati Reds? Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 xwOBA against Adrian Sampson this year and it is the most hitter friendly environment on the slate. Jake Fraley (133 wRC+, .228 ISO) actually projects as the top bat on this large board, while Jonathan India (93 wRC+, .142 ISO) lands inside the top 10 as well.

Pay Down Options Include Pitcher Whose Job Today is to Save the Bullpen

Paying up for Ohtani or Burnes may be the best idea, but perhaps paying down for pitching is a good idea too with uncertain workloads around the league. Current projections for FanDuel suggest that only two of the top 9 values (the two guys just mentioned) cost more than $8K. You’re taking a big chance playing them on a single pitcher site, but you’re already taking a big chance when you decided to play today, but these kind of chaotic slates might be the most profitable for those who put in the work. Mike Clevinger ($7.3K) is the top projected FanDuel value. He’s finally reawakened from a long slump, allowing a single run or less in two of his last three starts, but has struck out just 10 of his last 87 batters and just 18.8% with 9.5% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected San Francisco lineup averages a 24.8 K% vs RHP this season. Clevinger currently projects as the fifth best DraftKings value at a similar cost.

Marco Gonzales’s stated purpose in this game (by his manager) is to soak up as many innings as possible to save the bullpen for the wild card series in two days. This makes him more interesting than he would normally be. Unless something drastic happens, you’ll almost certainly be getting the workload portion of a Quality Starts (if the Mariners are to be believed). However, consider that he has four less strikeouts than deGrom in 20 more starts. The two pitchers in this game combine for a 26.9 K% when added together with Gonzales contributing the lower portion of that (13%). While he’s managed contact well enough (87.1 mph EV, 7.2% Barrels/BBE), he allows so much contact that he’s still allowed 43 barrels (30 home runs) on the year. His 4.14 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. The Tigers have a 101 wRC+, 22.3 K% and just 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Costing $7.9K on both sites, the workload projects Gonzales as the better value on FanDuel (second) than DraftKings (11th).

Second consecutive “Revenge Game” for Johan Oviedo, who produced a Quality Start against his old team last time out with just two runs and four strikeouts. He did allow his first home run on five barrels (7.0%) in six starts for the Pirates with an above average 23.3 K%, but also a 13.8 BB%. He has a 3.04 ERA/3.60 FIP/4.61 xFIP since the trade. He does have some upside and may not be facing the best Cardinal lineup (projected lineup averages a 21.2 K% vs RHP). Oviedo is within $300 of $6K on either site, projecting as a top eight value on either.

Ken Waldichuk is coming off his best major league start, striking out eight of 19 Mariners to bring him up to a 24 K% through six starts, while four of his nine walks came in his debut. The contact profile remains a problem though. With just a 33.8 GB% and a 44.7 Z-O-Swing%, opponents have barreled up 15% of their contact against him with a 90.8 mph EV and 46.3% hard hit rate. While his 6.18 ERA is well above all estimators, a 5.15 xERA would be the closest, though he now has a contact neutral estimator below four (3.87 SIERA). The Angels have an 87 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs LHP and Waldichuk has a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), costing just $5.2K on DK.

Domingo German has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters, but still has just an 18.5 K% on the season. On the positive side, he doesn’t walk many (6.5%) and has allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. With a .251 BABIP and 78.6 LOB%, estimators ranging from a 3.92 xERA to a 4.53 DRA are well above his 3.31 ERA. A changeup (23.3%, -1.5 RV/100) and curveball (37%, -0.7 RV/100) approach should work against the Rangers (91 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP), who have struggled against both pitches since the break (-0.16 wCH/C, -0.62 wCB/C). Costing less than $8K, perhaps German is auditioning for a post-season role here.

Aaron Civale has struck out 14 of 59 batters with a single walk since returning from the IL, allowing two home runs, but just a single barrel (2.3%). The contact profile had been a major issue through most the season, but he’s now down to 7.9% Barrels/BBE to go with a 17.7 K-BB%. He has a 5.04 ERA (60.5 LOB%), but not a single estimator above four. We could be concerned about his workload against the Royals (89 wRC+, 21.8 K%, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but not his price, within $100 of $8K on either site.

Attempting to Navigate the Top of the Final Full Pitching Board

Congratulations to all the hardcore daily fantasy baseball players reading this for making it to the very end of the regular season. The final full slate includes 14 games all starting at the same time on a Wednesday afternoon in the name of competitive integrity and none of them mean a darn thing. We still don’t even know who’s pitching some of these games (TBD is going to be a very busy pitcher today), while lineups that we’re merely guessing at will become clearer shortly. Look for players with personal goals and perhaps avoid players from teams playing in the wild card round.

The most expensive pitcher on the board is…no, he’s no longer pitching. Neither is he. The new most expensive arm on the board on either site, Shohei Ohtani has completed at least seven innings in three of his last six starts with a total of four runs allowed and just two barrels (2.2%). He’s even allowed just 22 hits over these 40 innings. With a 33.1 K% (26.4 K-BB%) and 87.1 mph EV (33.6% 95+ mph EV) on the season, all estimators are well within half a run of his 2.35 ERA. He ends the season in a great spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) and is essentially tied for the top projection on the board with the next pitcher with no other pitchers even close. Ohtani also projects as the third (DK) or fourth (FD) best value on the board.

Corbin Burnes most recently threw eight shutout innings at the Marlins with seven strikeouts. It may not be on par with his Cy Young winning 2021, but a 23.7 K-BB% with a 34.4% hard hit rate and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE is nothing to sneeze at. His 2.92 ERA is within half a run of all estimators and within a quarter run of all except a 2.56 DRA. With cooler weather and roof closures in Milwaukee, it’s a more pitcher friendly environment, while the Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs RHP. As mentioned, Burnes is essentially tied with Ohtani for the top projection on the board at a slightly lower cost, which makes him the second best projected value on either site.

The remaining two $10K arms are both going to the post-season, but will have a week off and should get in some decent work here, but probably not their normal workloads. Baltimore snapped Framber Valdez’s Quality Start streak (5.1 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 6 K), but then Tampa Bay did him even worse last time out (5.1 IP – 6 ER – 3 BB – 2 K). He strikes out batters at a slightly above average rate (22.4%), but a 66.9 GB% lets him get away with an 8.2 BB% and still pitch deep into games, while these last two games has brought his now 2.89 ERA much closer to estimators ranging from a 3.06 xFIP to a 3.56 DRA. The Phillies (117 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs LHP) may choose to rest key players for their date with St Louis on Friday. Valdez does project as the third best arm on the board, but far behind Ohtani and Burnes and as a middle of the board value.

Clayton Kershaw has five straight Quality Starts with a total of five runs and three barrels (3.6%) allowed over this span. He’s up to a 22.3 K-BB% on the season, allowing just 4.0% Barrels/BBE with a 33.6% hard hit rate. His 2.30 ERA is only a quarter or a run below a matching 2.56 xERA and FIP. It’s very unlikely he’ll see a full workload tonight. The Rockies actually have a 102 wRC+ with just a 19.8 K% vs LHP, but it’s a near lock that the Dodgers will abbreviate Kershaw here. As such, he projects as tonight’s sixth best arm and a slightly worse value that Valdez.

The only other pitcher reaching $9K on both sites, Merrill Kelly was having a career year, until October hit. All of a sudden, he’s allowed 22 runs, 11 home runs and 15 barrels (17%) over his last five starts. He still has 11 Quality Starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less (Super Quality Start?) with now a 14.2 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE. His 3.43 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.62 xERA/DRA to a 4.03 SIERA. The Brewers have a 108 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Kelly projects as tonight’s fourth best arm and as a slightly better value than Valdez.

Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

Top Value Stack in Great Spot Against Pitcher With 16.6 K% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE

Similar to Monday, the Dodgers top the board at 5.12 implied runs, but no other team is within a full run of them tonight. They once again project to be around twice as popular as any other stack on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Dodgers also project to smash the slate over 20% of the time with no other offense much higher than 12% on either site. Projecting as the top value stack on either site are the White Sox, an offense that hasn’t gotten much notice today. Josh Winder entered his last start striking out just 19 of his last 171 batters, but punched out six of 21 White Sox without a walk. Aside from a 16.6 K%, he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE with all estimators more than a quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. The White Sox have the fourth best team total on the board at exactly four runs. The margin by which they project as the top value stack is quite a bit larger on FanDuel than on DraftKings. For more on some interesting stacking scenarios beyond the Dodgers, check out today’s final PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Offense Projects Top Values on Either Site

One of several lists that will probably change once actual lineups are announced, just as Dodgers dominate the overall hitter projections, a full run above any other team total, they also place five batters among the top 10 projected FanDuel values. Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this year) and Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) project as top bats and FanDuel values for just under $3K against Ryan Feltner (RHBs .370 wOBA, .367 xwOBA – LHBs .326 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). Austin Barnes (108 wRC+, .164 ISO), Cody Bellinger (89 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Trayce Thompson (185 wRC+, .298 ISO) also project as top 10 FD values at varying costs below $3K. Thompson is the only Dodger bat also currently projecting as a top 10 DK value as well.

The only offense projecting multiple top 10 values on both sites is the Tampa Bay Rays. Nathan Eovaldi struck out just three of 19 Orioles with a 5.6 BB% with a concerning velocity drop further from the velocity loss he suffered before hitting the IL. While Eovaldi has produced an 18.1 K-BB%, the contact profile has been a disaster this year (10.8% Barrels/BBE, 46% 95+ mph EV). He has a bit of a reverse spilt, this year, but batters from either side of the plate are between a .317 and .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Ji-Man Choi (109 wRC+, .157 ISO) projects as one of the top two values on either site for less than $2.5K. David Peralta (114 wRC+, .180 ISO) is a top FanDuel value for just $2.1K and Jonathan Aranda (99 wRC+, .154 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for $100 more.

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 value on either site are the Oakland A’s on DraftKings. Michael Lorenzen generates more than half his contact on the ground, but LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against him. Conner Capel (157 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Seth Brown (130 wRC+, .234 ISO) cost no more than $2.6K.

This Should be the Lineup You Want...Depending on Who's In It

The Los Angeles Dodgers once again top the board at 5.12 implied runs, this time exactly a full run above the Astros, one of just three more teams reaching even four run team totals tonight. Ryan Feltner has produced a single Quality Start over his last 13. A 19.8 K% and 8.1% Barrels/BBE are below average, though not awful, while he does have a single estimator within a run of his 6.01 ERA, but the best of them is still just a 4.34 SIERA. On top of that, Dave Roberts has basically already announced there may be some lineup shenanigans in a completely meaningless game. However, as of now, five of the top six projected DraftKings bats and each of the top five projecting FanDuel bats are all Dodgers tonight. Feltner has a reverse split (RHBs .370 wOBA, .367 xwOBA – LHBs .326 wOBA, .316 xwOBA), which won’t necessarily help him tonight. Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (169 wRC+, .197 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .138 ISO), Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) are your top projected bats tonight with the exception of Aaron Judge, only available on DraftKings, who also may not play the second game of a meaningless double header tonight, where we don’t even know who’s pitching for the Rangers yet.

The latter half of the top 10 projected bats on FanDuel are all from different teams (Eloy Jimenez, Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Randy Arozarena and Carlos Correa), while the Jimenez and Trout also project among the top 10 DraftKings values, along with a couple of guys who are no longer even on the DK slate (Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso). Arozarena and Soto should pop up to take their place when adjustments are made, but players will certainly want to check back in on projections once lineups are released because a lot could change.

Some Top Projecting Values You May Not Normally Consider

Four of the top six projected FanDuel values are in the $8K range, but all are extremely high risk for one reason or another, but so is just about everyone else on a mostly meaningless slate. Let’s try to figure out if any of them are single site viable. The top projected value on either site (and $1.6K cheaper on DraftKings), Sean Manaea has somewhat pitched himself out of the post-season rotation and has been getting some long relief work recently. In fact, he’s gone beyond five innings in just one of his last eight outings (two in relief). The 23.0 K% (16.5 K-BB%) is fine. The 90.1 mph EV and 9.1% Barrels/BBE are not. That said, his 5.15 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 3.94 ERA to a 4.65 FIP with 29 of his 41 barrels leaving the yard. Perhaps he deserves some regression there and in his 67.1 LOB%, but the Padres can’t afford to wait for it to come. He does enter a dangerous matchup with some upside and somethine to prove tonight (Giants 107 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 13.2 HR/FB vs LHP). Normally, we’d probably want to stick with the SP2 spot, but Manaea wouldn’t be the worst FanDuel option tonight, unless we find out something about his workload beforehand.

Considering Jeffrey Springs rarely hits the 90 pitch mark anyway, it’s hard to imagine him being pushed hard here, a few days ahead of their wild card series. On a per pitch basis, Springs has been extremely efficient in a breakout season, striking out 26.3% of batters with just a 5.6 BB%, allowing only 6.1% Barrels/BBE. With an 82.7 LOB%, his 2.45 ERA is quite a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.06 FIP to a 3.31 SIERA, which aren’t so bad either. He’s in a tough spot with some upside in Boston (110 wRC+, 24 K% vs LHP) and while the weather is going to be pitcher friendly, it’s also wet and cold. There should probably be even more workload concern than usual here, but again, that’s true of most pitchers today.

Cole Irvin has completed seven innings in two of his last five starts, but hasn’t completed five in any of the other three and has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last nine (6.97 ERA/5.30 FIP/4.62 xFIP). He’s also allowed 20 barrels (11.4%) over this span. With just a 17.2 K% on the season, all estimators exceed his 4.11 ERA. He has no strikeout upside, the opposing offense has plenty (Angels 88 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs LHP). Cole Irvin may actually be viable in this spot, especially with a decent shot at a Quality Start.

Opposing Irvin, Michael Lorenzen still has a single digit K-BB%, but striking out 21 of his last 61 batters has driven his season strikeout rate up over 20% (20.2%). With 51% of his contact on the ground though, estimators ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a 4.46 SIERA are a bit below a 4.52 ERA. Lorenzen has also recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last seven starts. However, he gets to face the A’s (83 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP), which may make him usable on this slate by itself.

As far as your SP2 potentials on DraftKings, it’s basically the guys above, but just cheaper. All four are cost at least $8K on FanDuel, but less than $7.5K on DraftKings.

Tonight's Top Arm Could Still be Pitching for a Cy Young

Hats off to all the brave souls venturing to navigate this second to last day of the regular season slate. We have double-headers (three), though just one with any relevance to the main slate and only on DraftKings. We have some nasty north-east weather. We have a nearly fully set playoff picture with the only thing to be determined on the main slate is some wild card seeding, where teams might rather play the central division winners rather than eastern division wild cards. Several pitchers who were set to go last night have either already been scratched (Carlos Rodon) or altered (Jon Gray, Julio Urias). A couple of managers (Dusty Baker, Dave Roberts) have also mentioned resting regulars and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees will exhaust their regulars in a meaningless double headers. With all of that said, let’s get to tonight’s most expensive arms and try to figure out who’s actually viable.

Most expensively of the now just (one…two…) three $10K pitchers on the board and the only one now reaching $10K on DraftKings, Justin Verlander has struck out 21 of 68 batters since returning from the IL and 26.9% on the season with just a 4.3 BB%. Allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE with a 34.7% hard hit rate, he’s merely looking to put a cherry on top of his Cy Young season, but may not be pulled too quickly, as he won’t pitch again for a week, although there’s absolutely no reason for him to be pushed here either. Verlander is the outlier of outliers with a .242 BABIP and 80.3 LOB% that aren’t even the best of his career, but a 1.80 ERA is still well below estimators ranging from a 2.57 FIP to a 3.33 xFIP. All of his pitches grade strongly, but the curveball (19%, -1.9 RV/100, 24.2 Whiff%, .203 wOBA, .206 xwOBA) may be most useful against the Phillies (-0.19 wCB/C since the break). This is not an easy spot by any means though, as the Phillies have a 104 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but who knows what their lineup will look like after clinching a wild card spot last night and only needing to lose to avoid facing deGrom and Scherzer in the first round. With the expectation of a full workload, Verlander is tonight’s top projected pitcher (and may even be without a full workload at this point). He also projects as either the fourth or fifth best value on the board. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live blog for an in depth breakdown of tonight’s most expensive pitchers.

Jesse Winker scratched Monday.

Jesse Winker scratched Monday.

Nationals-Mets postponed Monday.

Lineup Update: Nolan Arenado scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Nolan Arenado scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Gleyber Torres scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Gleyber Torres scratched Monday.

Stacking Projections Suggest Jamming in as Many Bats as Possible from this Lineup

Not only are the Dodgers (5.74) the only team reaching five implied runs on Monday night, but current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) believe they may be more than twice as popular as any other stack on the board. The Dodgers also project to smash the slate more than twice as often as any other stack at a rate nearly 30%, which is enormous for a slate of this size. The Milwaukee Brewers project as the top value stack on FanDuel, but not by a very large margin with the Dodgers right behind them here too, where they might be too affordable. The Twins currently project as the top DraftKings value stack with the A’s, Brewers and White Sox closely trailing.

The Dodgers project to smash the slate at such an enormous rate that they still project the top Leverage Rating, despite hefty ownership projections as well. This is true on both sites. Projections are telling you to just jam as many Dodgers in as possible against Jose Urena, especially the left-handed ones (.390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA against Urena).

Despite their issues against LHP collectively (91 wRC+), the Brewers are currently the second rated stack on either site. Tommy Henry has just a 6.0 K-BB% and has been lit up by RHBs (.359 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). Brewers are affordable on either site and it’s not like the entire lineup is inept against LHP. Hunter Renfroe (130 wRC+, .216 ISO) has been the best of them though. The Brewers are also still alive for a wild card spot, so while effort doesn’t always translate to results, you know Milwaukee will be giving the maximum here.

The Toronto Blue Jays currently project the third best stack rating tonight, which is fine if they actually play (though the current forecast suggests they won’t). Dean Kremer has struck out just 15 of his last 128 batters with 14 walks. One of several Baltimore pitchers benefiting from the new dimensions, he’s allowed just three home runs (4.9 HR/FB) at home, while just 10 of his 27 barrels (7.4%) have left the yard overall. Non-FIP estimators range from a 4.42 xFIP to a 4.53 SIERA, well above his 3.17 ERA. RHBs have a .308 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against him this year, but the Blue Jays are just about locked into the first wild card spot (even if they lose all three and Seattle wins out, they’d have to lose tiebreakers).