DFS Alerts
Top Pitching Values in Great Matchups
Aaron Nola is the top projected pitcher and value on FanDuel tonight, but is the only one of the top five projected values there costing more than $9.2K (although projections are fluid and can change). Let’s see if we can find any that are useful on a single pitcher site. The top projected value on DraftKings and second best on FanDuel is Jake Odorizzi, who did strike out six of 25 batters, but was lit up for eight runs in Philadelphia last time out over just four innings of work. He’s struck out just 18.9% of batters and with a 45.5 Z-O-Swing%, it’s a bit of a surprise that he has just a 34.2% 95+ mph EV, but Odorizzi has made a career of living at the top of the zone and getting lots of popups (32.0 GB%, 14.4 IFFB%). This produces a 4.12 xERA, which is his best estimator, though all are within half a run of his 4.61 ERA. Odorizzi has completed six innings in just a quarter of his starts. He’s in a strong run prevention spot in Washington, but not a very high upside one (Nationals 95 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP). Odorizzi probably works better as a DraftKings SP, especially costing $1.5K less.
George Kirby has an impressive 21.2 K-BB% in his rookie season and because he walks nobody (3.8%), he’s been able to register four post-break Quality Starts, despite exceeding 85 pitches just once. His 3.30 ERA is within one-twentieth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. It’s shocking that one-sixth of his walks this season came in his last start against the A’s, while he struck out just one of 17 batters. He currently projects as the third best pitcher and value on either site in a great spot at home against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP), but check back again later to see if there’s a pitch count adjustment made that drops him a bit.
Taijuan Walker projects as the fourth best value on either site for less than $9K in a great spot. It’s pitcher friendly weather in a pitcher friendly park against a predominantly right-handed offense that has a 94 wRC+ and 22.6 K% vs RHP this year. However, with a 5.11 ERA/5.14 FIP/4.78 xFIP since the break, this marks the second straight year that Walker has pitched like an All-Start in the first half and cratered in the second half, though 2021 was even worse. Half of his barrels (16 of 33) and 10 of his 14 home runs have come in just 11 post-break starts, while his 16.7 K% is a drop off as well, dropping his post-break K-BB% into single digits. Walker has only exceeded five strikeouts in one of these starts, though that was against the Marlins, who have basically been one of the worst offenses in the league in the second half against every pitch Walker throws. While Walker also has a 37 point platoon split, batters from both sides of the plate have a .312 xwOBA against him.
Josiah Gray projects as a strong FanDuel value because he costs less than $8K and the Braves strike out a ton (25.2% vs RHP). However, not only has Gray allowed 37 home runs on 43 barrrels (10.7%), but now he’s also only struck out 12.8% of batters over his last five starts too (7.2 SwStr%). The velocity is fine and the Nationals keep running him out there for 90 or so pitches, so who knows? Non-FIP estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.17 ERA, while he still has a 24.2 K%, but also a 10.2 BB%. The Braves also have a 108 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB vs RHP.
On DraftKings, Jose Quintana is cheap enough ($6.7K) with a great defense behind him (17 Runs Prevented) if they all play tonight. The Brewers have an 89 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP. Quintana sits at exactly a 20% strikeout rate (13.3 K-BB%), which should be fine for this spot, especially with an 86.4 mph EV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. Michael Lorenzen has a 4.78 ERA that’s only slightly above estimators ranging from a 4.12 xERA to a 4.61 FIP. While 50.2% of his contact has been on the ground, he has just an 8.7 K-BB%. He’s allowed 24 runs and seven home runs over his last 26.2 innings. He does get Oakland (85 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP) for $6.2K, but in a hitter friendly park with a hitter friendly umpire.
Tonight's Top Projected Pitcher Has Everything Going for Him
Fourth most expensive on FanDuel, but over $1K less on DraftKings, all Zac Gallen did last time out was strike out 13 of 26 Dodgers and two hit them for eight innings. Since the start of his scoreless streak, nine starts back, Gallen has a 35.1 K% and 5.2 BB% with an 87.6 mph EV and just six barrels (4.8%), missing a Quality Start just a single time and by just two outs. With a .234 BABIP and 7.9 HR/FB, season estimators ranging from a 2.89 FIP to a 3.30 FIP are a bit above his 2.46 ERA. All four of his pitches grade -0.5 RV/100 or better by Statcast. He gets the Astros (108 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP) in Houston, but it’s a negative run environment and they’ve been giving guys days off since clinching the division too. If he did it to the Dodgers, why can’t he repeat it against the Astros? Projections are not expecting him to. They see him as a middle of the board arm and bottom of the board value.
The top projected pitcher on the board is just the fifth most expensive one on FanDuel (fourth on DraftKings). An atrocious Philadelphia defense (-28 Runs Prevented) probably most contributes to a 3.28 ERA that’s at least four-tenths of a run above all of Aaron Nola’s estimators. The underlying numbers (28.7 K%, 3.8 BB%, 28.2 Z-O-Swing%, 31.5% 95+ mph EV) suggest that Nola may be your NL Cy Young. He’s completed at least seven innings with two or fewer runs 11 times this year. With his two best pitches being his four-seamer (33.2%, -1.2 RV/100, 23.8 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280) and sinker (19.2%, -1.8 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA below .260), this is a great matchup against the Cubs (97 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs RHP), who are the third worst offense in baseball against heaters since the break (-0.63 wFB/C). Weather and umpiring further favor Nola tonight, who is also the top projected value on FanDuel (second best on DraftKings).
Lastly, Julio Urias has gone 12 straight starts without allowing more than two runs. Of course, a .201 BABIP and 95.8 LOB% are completely unsustainable, but the point remains that he’s been really good. He’s struck out batters at an above average clip (24.4%) with great control (5.9 BB%) and an elite contact profile (86.7 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 30% 95+ mph EV). Estimators ranging from a 2.71 xERA to a 3.78 xFIP are pretty strong. He’s in a tough spot in San Diego (104 wRC+, 19.9 K% vs LHP), which is actually expecting some of the most hitter friendly weather on the slate, though it should still play as a negative run environment. Urias currently projects inside the top 10 on either site. Urias also projects as a bottom half of the board value.
Top Pitcher Could Be Facing a Diminished Lineup
A large 12 game Wednesday night slate includes six $10K pitchers (three on FanDuel), but nobody else above $9K on both sites. Most expensively on the entire board, but $700 less on DraftKings, Justin Verlander was back above 90 pitches in just his second start back from the IL, but struck out just four of 22 Orioles. Without the two starts bookending his IL stint, he’d have 11 straight Quality Starts. With a 26.9 K% (22.6 K-BB%) on the season, estimators ranging from a 2.61 FIP to a 3.30 xFIP are well above his 1.82 ERA, but a .239 BABIP is only the third lowest mark of his career, while an 80.7 LOB% is his worst season in Houston. Eight of his 41 runs have been unearned too, but Verlander is just an outlier, maybe THE outlier. Roof open or closed, Houston is generally a negative run environment, while the Diamondbacks are a marginal matchup (96 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), but continue to struggle late in the season (68 wRC+, 28.3 K% last seven days). Verlander is the second best projected pitcher on the slate, but just outside the top five projected values on either.
Most expensively on DraftKings ($200 more than Verlander) and $200 more on FanDuel ($300 less than Verlander), in each of his last three starts, Gerrit Cole has allowed multiple home runs, exactly four runs and struck out at least eight. He’s gone at least six innings with eight or more strikeouts in more than half of his starts, which is a mighty fine floor, but has also allowed 31 home runs on 42 barrels (9.3%). In another park, you might call for serious regression of a 16.8 HR/FB and the barrel rate looks a bit worse than it is because only about 60% of batters are making contact, but it’s probably a bit of a concern at this point. His 3.49 ERA matches a 3.48 FIP and aligns well with a 3.30 xERA. With a 26.0 K-BB% that’s more than fine, but the Yankees are paying him over $300 million and Yankee fans aren’t often known for their patience. He’s in a pretty awful spot in Toronto tonight (116 wRC+, 20.3 K% vs RHP, 115 wRC+, 13.4 HR/FB at home) and considering that he doesn’t really have much of a split doesn’t make it any easier. Cole currently registers as the fourth best projected pitcher (though that could change after pitch count adjustments to a pitcher or two ahead of him), but just as a middle of the board value on either site.
Third most expensive on both sites, Brandon Woodruff is looking to single-handedly pitch the Brewers into the playoffs with double digit strikeouts in three consecutive starts (30.1% on the year). With a 23.1 K-BB%, his 3.18 ERA aligns within one-tenth of a run of all estimators except for a 2.91 DRA. He faces the Cardinals (109 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP) in a park that plays hitter friendly with the roof open, but it’s been cooler in Milwaukee this week with the roof closed yesterday, which makes it a more pitcher friendly environment. The Cardinals also clinched the division last night and could be short a few bats tonight. Woodruff currently projects barely behind Cole, which makes him a slightly better value, but keep an eye out for the confirmed St Louis lineup later.
The Stack That Projects to Smash the Slate Nearly as Often as the Braves
With just four teams exceeding four and a half implied runs and the Braves atop the board (5.11), they are projected to be the most popular team on the board and the only stack currently with a double digit ownership projection, though by a larger margin, nearly 50% more than any other stack on DraftKings. The Braves also smash the slate most often in early simulations (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), but not all that more often the Red Sox, though Kyle Bradish did strike out 10 Astros last time out and is a prospect with some upside. Fenway is a more positive run environment than Washington (where Altanta will face Paolo Espino) though. Boston also projects as the top value stack on FanDuel, currently with more than twice the value of any other FD stack. The Red Sox slightly trail the A’s as the top projected value stack on DraftKings. For an in depth look at some stacks who may rate as well as or better than the Braves tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Several Lineups May Include Top Projected Bats and Values Tonight
Four different offenses project a pair of top 10 FanDuel values tonight, while two of those plus one more also project a pair of top 10 DraftKings values. Let’s start with the top projecting value on both sites, costing exactly $2.1K, in Mike Ford (70 wRC+ vs RHP this year). LHBs have just a .304 wOBA, but .332 xwOBA against James Kaprielian, who has just a 5.7 K-BB% this season. Also costing exactly $2.1K, Matt Thaiss (108 wRC+) is a top projecting FanDuel value and Mickey Moniak (54 wRC+, .154 ISO) a top projecting DraftKings value. This greatly takes the edge off the exorbitant costs of top projecting overall bats Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in your Angels stacks.
The Boston Red Sox are the other offense that includes two top projected bats (Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts) and values on both sites. Kyle Bradish has shown some upside, especially in striking out 10 Astros last time out, but RHBs still have a .355 wOBA and .333 xwOBA against him and he’s pitching in a park that favors right-handed batters. Yu Chang (117 wRC+, .169 ISO) is a top projected value for just $2.2K or less. Connor Wong (166 wRC+, .200 ISO) cost $2.1K on FanDuel, while Triston Casas (116 wRC+, .316 ISO) costs the same on FanDuel, though LHBS are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradish.
The Atlanta lineup includes either four or five of the top projected bats on the board. The good news is that Eddie Rosario (68 wRC+, .128 ISO) projects as a top value on either site for less than $2.5K, while Robbie Grossman (46 wRC+) also projects as a top FanDuel value ($2.2K) against Paolo Epsino (batters from both sites between a .321 and .344 wOBA and xwOBA). The bad news is that site rules only allow you to stack a certain amount of Braves.
Adrian Houser has a -3.4 K-BB% over his last 25.1 innings. All estimators are within half a run of his 4.62 ERA this year. LHBs have a .370 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him this year. Lars Nootbaar (128 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (106 wRC+, .137 ISO) are top projecting FanDuel values against him.
Patrick Sandoval has a 23.9 K% and a great contact profile (87.4 mph EV, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 34% 95+ mph EV), but he also has a 9.7 BB% and Oakland gets a park upgrade for the offense tonight. RHBs have a .326 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against Sandoval this year. Jonah Bride (27 wRC+) and Dermis Garcia (98 wRC+, .222 ISO) cost the minimum on DraftKings.
Projections Love This Lineup Tonight
The Atlanta Braves (5.11) are the only offense exceeding five implied runs on a 12 game Tuesday night slate in their road matchup against Paolo Espino, while just three more offenses (Astros, Angels, Red Sox) have team run totals above four and a half runs as we find more pitcher friendly weather to close out the season in late September. Current PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) certainly love their Braves tonight. Depending on which site you’re looking at, 40% to 50% of the top 10 projected bats tonight are Braves. Paolo Espino has recorded just four sixth inning outs over 17 starts. He’s also struck out just 19% of batters with a 4.8 BB% his only saving grace, keeping estimators not too worse than average and all within half a run of his 4.17 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .321 and .344 wOBA and xwOBA against him, which probably works against him with a somewhat balanced Atlanta lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr. (119 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected Atlanta bat and second best overall projected one tonight. Injuries have certainly taken their toll on his performance this year though and that may not be fully captured by projections. Austin Riley (124 wRC+, .227 ISO), Dansby Swanson (107 wRC+, .157 ISO), Matt Olson (111 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Michael Harris (167 wRC+, .269 ISO) are all top projecting bats tonight too.
Mike Trout (164 wRC+, .346 ISO) is the top projecting bat on the board. He’s actually been even better (197 wRC+ over the last 30 days) since a rare back issue was supposed to derail his career. Shohei Ohtani (154 wRC+, .282 ISO) is also a top projecting bat against James Kaprielian, who has five Quality Starts, all since the start of July, including his last two starts. That said, he has just a 5.7 K-BB%. His 4.43 ERA is at least one-quarter of a run below all estimators, while batters from either side exceed a .330 xwOBA against him.
We also have a pair of top projecting Boston bats tonight. In Kyle Bradish’s first stint in the majors he struck out 21.7% of batters, but allowed 11.7% Barrels/BBE. He missed a month, but when he returned, his next 10 starts produced only 4.4% Barrels/BBE, but a slightly lower strikeout rate (20.6%). In his 21st start, last time out, he struck out 10 Astros without a walk on two hits, finishing a single out short of a shutout. Estimators ranging from a 3.81 ERA to a 4.31 FIP are more than one-third of a run below his 4.65 ERA, but RHBs still have a .355 wOBA and .333 xwOBA against him and he’s pitching in a park that favors right-handed batters. LHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. None the less, it’s Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .258 ISO), who projects as a top 10 bat, along with Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .143 ISO).
Some Volatile Top Projecting Values
With pitcher projections just recently updating, we find that just one of the top six projected FanDuel values exceeds $9K, but are any of these pitchers usable on a single pitcher site? The answer is maybe…if you embrace some volatility. Kyle Muller now becomes the top projected FD value for $6K and third best DK one for $1.4K more. He has made two spot starts this year, striking out eight of 38 batters, but also walking seven and getting lit up for nine runs with his only barrel (4.3%) going out. He has just a 9.3 K-BB% over 44.1 career innings, but a 22.2 K-BB% over 23 AAA starts this year. The Nationals have no power (91 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB), but are still contact prone (20.2 K%) vs LHP. He’s a tough trust on FanDuel.
Projecting as a top three value on either site (best on DraftKings), Patrick Sandoval’s 9.7 BB% doesn’t show up in every start. He walked four last time out after just a total of four in his previous five, but we can’t predict when it will and he’s walked at least three in 40% of his starts, while the 23.9 K% isn’t exactly dominant. He does also have Quality Starts in 40% of his starts (only two with at least three walks) and a great contact profile (87.4 mph EV, 5.5% Barrels/BBE, 34% 95+ mph EV). Yet, a 4.07 xERA is his worst estimator with a near full run gap from his best estimator, which is a 3.18 FIP, the only one within half a run of his 3.01 ERA. Just eight of 21 barrels have left the yard, but he also has seven unearned runs. Sandoval is in a pretty great spot today though (A’s 86 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs LHP), even if the park is hitter friendly, which certainly explains the projection. Sandoval is certainly playable on FanDuel with the most risk in a walk rate that could limit his workload.
Even at less than $6K against a team with a 25.2 K% vs RHP, Paolo Espino is not rosterable against the Braves, but projecting as the fifth best value on either site for less than $7.5K, it might be fairly useless to quote Jose Berrios’s numbers at this point (19.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, 10.0% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 4.13 SIERA to a 5.26 xERA). It would probably benefit GPP players more to point out that he has 10 Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts (exactly one-third of his starts) and has allowed at least four runs with less than five strikeouts 10 times also. Feast or famine baby! Toss a coin. It’s a tough matchup (Yankees 113 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 15.4 HR/FB), but Berrios does have a decently sized split and will almost certainly face a majority right-handed lineup tonight.
The last strongly projected cheaper value, a 4.3 HR/FB is unsustainable, as only three of Bailey Ober’s 14 barrels (10.3%) have left he yard, explaining the nearly two run gap between his 3.07 FIP and 4.96 xERA. On a positive note, the walk rate isn’t much higher (4.9%), resulting in a 15.2 K-BB%, but with just a 25.2 GB%. Contact neutral estimators don’t handle extreme fly ball pitchers very well either, but all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.71 ERA. Great pitching weather expected in Minnesota, where Ober will face a predominantly (almost entirely) right-handed lineup (.267 wOBA vs Ober, but .336 xwOBA this year). The White Sox have a 95 wRC+ and 9.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 20.8 K%. Aside from the forecast, the only attractive thing here is Ober’s cost (less than $7K), which probably makes him a more useful SP2 on DraftKings.
German Marquez has six straight Quality Starts on the road and has failed to complete six innings only once on the road this year. However, his 6.9% Barrels/BBE may be a fluke with a 90.5 mph EV, 47.4% 95+ mph EV and less than half his contact on the ground (47.4%). That kind of contact profile with an 18.6 K% (10.5 K-BB%) probably wouldn’t play well in any park, although his 5.15 ERA is more than half a run above all non-FIP estimators. He’s probably too cheap ($5.7 DK) in San Francisco (97 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). For just $6.1K, Kyle Bradish struck out 10 Astros last time out. Estimators ranging from a 3.81 ERA to a 4.31 FIP are more than one-third of a run below his 4.65 ERA. He’s in another tough spot in Boston (99 wRC+, 22 K%), but with a potentially pitcher friendly umpire. Logan Webb may be a bit too cheap on DraftKings ($7.2K) with a 20.3 K% (14 K-BB%) and 56.7 GB% for a home spot against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP).
Recent Strikeout and Groundball Spike for This Top Priced Pitcher
A 12 game Tuesday night slate includes five $10K pitchers and two more exceeding $9K on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on either site, Lance McCullers Jr. has struck out 19 of his last 53 batters and spiked a 68.4 GB% in his last start to get up to 48.1% on the season. He’s up to a 26.0 K% with just 4.7% Barrels/BBE (33.6% 95+ mph EV), but still has a 12.1 BB%. Hasn’t stopped him from throwing 20 innings over his last three starts with just two runs in each. However, with an 85.8 LOB%, all estimators are more than a run above his 2.38 ERA, ranging as high as a 4.08 SIERA. Houston is a negative run environment roof closed or open, while the Diamondbacks have been nearly average (96 wRC+, 21.8 K%, 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP). We should certainly be encouraged by the recent uptick, but McCullers projects outside the top five overall and as a bottom half of the board value. That might actually make him a great GPP play. For a detailed breakdown of every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites, including the top projected pitcher and value on the slate, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Freddie Freeman (illness) scratched Saturday
Freddie Freeman (illness) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Eric Stephen via Twitter
Of Course This Offense Dominates Stacking Projections
There’s no other way to put this, but with the Padres exceeding the rest of the board by about a run and a half at Coors, let’s see how much Friday’s early stacking projections expect them to dominate the slate by. As far as popularity, they’re not too far ahead of the Rockies on DraftKings (the only two stacks currently projecting for double digit ownership), but are expected to be more than twice as popular as every other stack (although projections are fluid and update throughout the day). On either site, the Padres project to smash the slate more than twice as often as any other team. A 20+ Smash% is fairly rare on a slate with this many games. At least the value projections will give us some break from the…oh, hey, here they are again. The Padres also project as the top value stack on DraftKings, though they’re very close to the Giants, Tigers and Diamondbacks. The Giants are the top projected value stack on FanDuel by the same margin the Padres are in the smash department. For more on which stacks might rate better than the Padres, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
This Platoon Heavy Lineup Features the Top Three Projected FD Values
With a strong and expensive pitching board, pitcher friendly weather around most the country and the Padres separating themselves by nearly a run and a half from the rest of the board at Coors, some cheaper bats are likely to be a necessity in your lineups tonight and projections for both sites agree (though more so FanDuel) that you can find that in the San Francisco lineup. Tommy Henry has a 4.9 K-BB% through seven starts and 28% of his strikeouts came in a single start against the Cardinals of all teams. He hasn’t exceeded four in any other. Opponents have a 90.9 mph EV against him. His 5.50 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators and he does not have a single pitch that grades above average via Statcast measures. A LHP generally means a cheap and valuable RH lineup for the Giants and that’s no exception in Arizona tonight, which is likely to be one of the few decent hitting environments outside Coors tonight. The Giants are fifth on the board at exactly four and a half implied runs. The top three projected values on FanDuel are all Giants tonight, including Austin Slater (137 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP this year), J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Evan Longoria (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), all costing less than $2.5K. Slater doubles as not only a top 10 projected bat overall, but also a top 10 projected DraftKings value for $3.1K. The only other Giant also projecting as a top 10 DK value ($2.5K) is David Villar (161 wRC+, .283 ISO). RHBs have a .339 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Henry.
After that, projections and pricing disagree about where best value comes from. Juan Soto (164 wRC+, .243 ISO) projects so strongly at Coors that he makes the list of top projected values even at $4.3K on FanDuel against Ryan Feltner (RHBs .390 wOBA, .379 xwOBA – LHBs .319 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). Jurickson Profar (107 wRC+ .167 ISO) is also a top bat and top projected FanDuel value for $3.1K. Min-priced Jose Azocar (110 wRC+) is the top projected DraftKings value, but with no other Padres among the top 10.
We also find a trio of Tampa Bay bats projecting for top FanDuel value at home against Mitch White (batters from either side between a .302 and .331 wOBA and xwOBA). Jonathan Aranda (160 wRC+, .208 ISO), Manuel Margot (101 wRC+, .108 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (109 wRC+, .155 ISO) all cost $2.5K or less. Jose Siri (96 wRC+, .140 ISO) is also a top projected FanDuel value for $2.2K. The Blue Jays are likely to be feeding the Rays some of their own medicine tonight. Two trips through the order and the bullpen (4.08 FIP, 3.41 SIERA last 30 days).
As is usually the case, the top projected DraftKings value comes from minimally priced poor offenses against marginal pitching. In this case, it’s Miguel Cabrera (72 wRC+) and Spencer Torkelson (75 wRC+) against Lucas Giolito (RHBs .409 wOBA, .351 ISO). Both have a sub-.100 ISO against RHP this year. The only other pair of teammates projecting for top 10 value reside at the bottom of the projected Kansas City lineup in Hunter Dozier (96 wRC+, .120 ISO) and Nate Eaton (115 wRC+, .217 ISO). RHBs have a .329 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against Marco Gonzales this year, but Weather Edge is forecasting the most pitcher friendly weather on the slate in Kansas City tonight, though that could change.
Sixty Percent of the Top 10 Projected Bats Come From This Lineup
Way high up on the Friday night mountain, overlooking all the rest of the climbers far below, we find the San Diego Padres at a staggering 6.15 implied run line against Ryan Feltner at Coors. Mostly due to pitcher friendly weather conditions and an abundance of high end pitching, no other offense reaches a five run team total on the main slate. The next closest are the Rockies (4.85) with three more offenses almost exactly at the four and a half run mark and then a quarter run drop to the rest of the board. Filtering LineupHQ by raw point projections serves no surprises. The top 10 projections are 60% Padres. Juan Soto (164 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP this year) even merits a projection better than Aaron Judge for the first time all week. Of course, Judge (174 wRC+, .349 ISO) is the second best projected bat on the board against Rich Hill. Feltner’s 12.1 K-BB% isn’t too bad, but still generates estimators no lower than 4.29 SIERA and with a 43.1 Z-O-Swing% plus Coors, he ends up with an ERA above six. He has exhibited a large reverse split so far (RHBs .390 wOBA, .379 xwOBA – LHBs .319 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). Manny Machado (161 wRC+, .232 ISO), Jake Cronenworth (104 wRC+, .147 ISO), Jurickson Profar (107 wRC+, .167 ISO), Josh Bell (122 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Brandon Drury (107 wRC+, .198 ISO) join Soto atop the board. Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts and Austin Slater are the remaining top 10 projected bats tonight.