DFS Alerts

Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Blue Jays-Orioles postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

David Peralta (hip) scratched Tuesday

Top Value Stack in Great Spot Against Pitcher With 16.6 K% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE

Similar to Monday, the Dodgers top the board at 5.12 implied runs, but no other team is within a full run of them tonight. They once again project to be around twice as popular as any other stack on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Dodgers also project to smash the slate over 20% of the time with no other offense much higher than 12% on either site. Projecting as the top value stack on either site are the White Sox, an offense that hasn’t gotten much notice today. Josh Winder entered his last start striking out just 19 of his last 171 batters, but punched out six of 21 White Sox without a walk. Aside from a 16.6 K%, he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE with all estimators more than a quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. The White Sox have the fourth best team total on the board at exactly four runs. The margin by which they project as the top value stack is quite a bit larger on FanDuel than on DraftKings. For more on some interesting stacking scenarios beyond the Dodgers, check out today’s final PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Offense Projects Top Values on Either Site

One of several lists that will probably change once actual lineups are announced, just as Dodgers dominate the overall hitter projections, a full run above any other team total, they also place five batters among the top 10 projected FanDuel values. Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this year) and Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) project as top bats and FanDuel values for just under $3K against Ryan Feltner (RHBs .370 wOBA, .367 xwOBA – LHBs .326 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). Austin Barnes (108 wRC+, .164 ISO), Cody Bellinger (89 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Trayce Thompson (185 wRC+, .298 ISO) also project as top 10 FD values at varying costs below $3K. Thompson is the only Dodger bat also currently projecting as a top 10 DK value as well.

The only offense projecting multiple top 10 values on both sites is the Tampa Bay Rays. Nathan Eovaldi struck out just three of 19 Orioles with a 5.6 BB% with a concerning velocity drop further from the velocity loss he suffered before hitting the IL. While Eovaldi has produced an 18.1 K-BB%, the contact profile has been a disaster this year (10.8% Barrels/BBE, 46% 95+ mph EV). He has a bit of a reverse spilt, this year, but batters from either side of the plate are between a .317 and .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Ji-Man Choi (109 wRC+, .157 ISO) projects as one of the top two values on either site for less than $2.5K. David Peralta (114 wRC+, .180 ISO) is a top FanDuel value for just $2.1K and Jonathan Aranda (99 wRC+, .154 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for $100 more.

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 value on either site are the Oakland A’s on DraftKings. Michael Lorenzen generates more than half his contact on the ground, but LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against him. Conner Capel (157 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Seth Brown (130 wRC+, .234 ISO) cost no more than $2.6K.

This Should be the Lineup You Want...Depending on Who's In It

The Los Angeles Dodgers once again top the board at 5.12 implied runs, this time exactly a full run above the Astros, one of just three more teams reaching even four run team totals tonight. Ryan Feltner has produced a single Quality Start over his last 13. A 19.8 K% and 8.1% Barrels/BBE are below average, though not awful, while he does have a single estimator within a run of his 6.01 ERA, but the best of them is still just a 4.34 SIERA. On top of that, Dave Roberts has basically already announced there may be some lineup shenanigans in a completely meaningless game. However, as of now, five of the top six projected DraftKings bats and each of the top five projecting FanDuel bats are all Dodgers tonight. Feltner has a reverse split (RHBs .370 wOBA, .367 xwOBA – LHBs .326 wOBA, .316 xwOBA), which won’t necessarily help him tonight. Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (169 wRC+, .197 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .138 ISO), Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) are your top projected bats tonight with the exception of Aaron Judge, only available on DraftKings, who also may not play the second game of a meaningless double header tonight, where we don’t even know who’s pitching for the Rangers yet.

The latter half of the top 10 projected bats on FanDuel are all from different teams (Eloy Jimenez, Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Randy Arozarena and Carlos Correa), while the Jimenez and Trout also project among the top 10 DraftKings values, along with a couple of guys who are no longer even on the DK slate (Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso). Arozarena and Soto should pop up to take their place when adjustments are made, but players will certainly want to check back in on projections once lineups are released because a lot could change.

Some Top Projecting Values You May Not Normally Consider

Four of the top six projected FanDuel values are in the $8K range, but all are extremely high risk for one reason or another, but so is just about everyone else on a mostly meaningless slate. Let’s try to figure out if any of them are single site viable. The top projected value on either site (and $1.6K cheaper on DraftKings), Sean Manaea has somewhat pitched himself out of the post-season rotation and has been getting some long relief work recently. In fact, he’s gone beyond five innings in just one of his last eight outings (two in relief). The 23.0 K% (16.5 K-BB%) is fine. The 90.1 mph EV and 9.1% Barrels/BBE are not. That said, his 5.15 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 3.94 ERA to a 4.65 FIP with 29 of his 41 barrels leaving the yard. Perhaps he deserves some regression there and in his 67.1 LOB%, but the Padres can’t afford to wait for it to come. He does enter a dangerous matchup with some upside and somethine to prove tonight (Giants 107 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 13.2 HR/FB vs LHP). Normally, we’d probably want to stick with the SP2 spot, but Manaea wouldn’t be the worst FanDuel option tonight, unless we find out something about his workload beforehand.

Considering Jeffrey Springs rarely hits the 90 pitch mark anyway, it’s hard to imagine him being pushed hard here, a few days ahead of their wild card series. On a per pitch basis, Springs has been extremely efficient in a breakout season, striking out 26.3% of batters with just a 5.6 BB%, allowing only 6.1% Barrels/BBE. With an 82.7 LOB%, his 2.45 ERA is quite a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.06 FIP to a 3.31 SIERA, which aren’t so bad either. He’s in a tough spot with some upside in Boston (110 wRC+, 24 K% vs LHP) and while the weather is going to be pitcher friendly, it’s also wet and cold. There should probably be even more workload concern than usual here, but again, that’s true of most pitchers today.

Cole Irvin has completed seven innings in two of his last five starts, but hasn’t completed five in any of the other three and has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last nine (6.97 ERA/5.30 FIP/4.62 xFIP). He’s also allowed 20 barrels (11.4%) over this span. With just a 17.2 K% on the season, all estimators exceed his 4.11 ERA. He has no strikeout upside, the opposing offense has plenty (Angels 88 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs LHP). Cole Irvin may actually be viable in this spot, especially with a decent shot at a Quality Start.

Opposing Irvin, Michael Lorenzen still has a single digit K-BB%, but striking out 21 of his last 61 batters has driven his season strikeout rate up over 20% (20.2%). With 51% of his contact on the ground though, estimators ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a 4.46 SIERA are a bit below a 4.52 ERA. Lorenzen has also recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last seven starts. However, he gets to face the A’s (83 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP), which may make him usable on this slate by itself.

As far as your SP2 potentials on DraftKings, it’s basically the guys above, but just cheaper. All four are cost at least $8K on FanDuel, but less than $7.5K on DraftKings.

Tonight's Top Arm Could Still be Pitching for a Cy Young

Hats off to all the brave souls venturing to navigate this second to last day of the regular season slate. We have double-headers (three), though just one with any relevance to the main slate and only on DraftKings. We have some nasty north-east weather. We have a nearly fully set playoff picture with the only thing to be determined on the main slate is some wild card seeding, where teams might rather play the central division winners rather than eastern division wild cards. Several pitchers who were set to go last night have either already been scratched (Carlos Rodon) or altered (Jon Gray, Julio Urias). A couple of managers (Dusty Baker, Dave Roberts) have also mentioned resting regulars and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees will exhaust their regulars in a meaningless double headers. With all of that said, let’s get to tonight’s most expensive arms and try to figure out who’s actually viable.

Most expensively of the now just (one…two…) three $10K pitchers on the board and the only one now reaching $10K on DraftKings, Justin Verlander has struck out 21 of 68 batters since returning from the IL and 26.9% on the season with just a 4.3 BB%. Allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE with a 34.7% hard hit rate, he’s merely looking to put a cherry on top of his Cy Young season, but may not be pulled too quickly, as he won’t pitch again for a week, although there’s absolutely no reason for him to be pushed here either. Verlander is the outlier of outliers with a .242 BABIP and 80.3 LOB% that aren’t even the best of his career, but a 1.80 ERA is still well below estimators ranging from a 2.57 FIP to a 3.33 xFIP. All of his pitches grade strongly, but the curveball (19%, -1.9 RV/100, 24.2 Whiff%, .203 wOBA, .206 xwOBA) may be most useful against the Phillies (-0.19 wCB/C since the break). This is not an easy spot by any means though, as the Phillies have a 104 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but who knows what their lineup will look like after clinching a wild card spot last night and only needing to lose to avoid facing deGrom and Scherzer in the first round. With the expectation of a full workload, Verlander is tonight’s top projected pitcher (and may even be without a full workload at this point). He also projects as either the fourth or fifth best value on the board. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live blog for an in depth breakdown of tonight’s most expensive pitchers.

Jesse Winker scratched Monday.

Jesse Winker scratched Monday.

Nationals-Mets postponed Monday.

Lineup Update: Nolan Arenado scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Nolan Arenado scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Gleyber Torres scratched Monday.

Lineup Update: Gleyber Torres scratched Monday.

Stacking Projections Suggest Jamming in as Many Bats as Possible from this Lineup

Not only are the Dodgers (5.74) the only team reaching five implied runs on Monday night, but current stacking projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) believe they may be more than twice as popular as any other stack on the board. The Dodgers also project to smash the slate more than twice as often as any other stack at a rate nearly 30%, which is enormous for a slate of this size. The Milwaukee Brewers project as the top value stack on FanDuel, but not by a very large margin with the Dodgers right behind them here too, where they might be too affordable. The Twins currently project as the top DraftKings value stack with the A’s, Brewers and White Sox closely trailing.

The Dodgers project to smash the slate at such an enormous rate that they still project the top Leverage Rating, despite hefty ownership projections as well. This is true on both sites. Projections are telling you to just jam as many Dodgers in as possible against Jose Urena, especially the left-handed ones (.390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA against Urena).

Despite their issues against LHP collectively (91 wRC+), the Brewers are currently the second rated stack on either site. Tommy Henry has just a 6.0 K-BB% and has been lit up by RHBs (.359 wOBA, .355 xwOBA). Brewers are affordable on either site and it’s not like the entire lineup is inept against LHP. Hunter Renfroe (130 wRC+, .216 ISO) has been the best of them though. The Brewers are also still alive for a wild card spot, so while effort doesn’t always translate to results, you know Milwaukee will be giving the maximum here.

The Toronto Blue Jays currently project the third best stack rating tonight, which is fine if they actually play (though the current forecast suggests they won’t). Dean Kremer has struck out just 15 of his last 128 batters with 14 walks. One of several Baltimore pitchers benefiting from the new dimensions, he’s allowed just three home runs (4.9 HR/FB) at home, while just 10 of his 27 barrels (7.4%) have left the yard overall. Non-FIP estimators range from a 4.42 xFIP to a 4.53 SIERA, well above his 3.17 ERA. RHBs have a .308 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against him this year, but the Blue Jays are just about locked into the first wild card spot (even if they lose all three and Seattle wins out, they’d have to lose tiebreakers).

Lineup Update: Cardinals SP Jose Quintana will start tonight vs. the Pirates. SP Miles Mikolas will follow.

Lineup Update: Cardinals SP Jose Quintana will start tonight vs. the Pirates. SP Miles Mikolas will follow.

Projections Believe There's a Lot of Value in this Lineup

You want to play it safe and pay up for Aaron Nola or Brandon Woodruff tonight, while Dodger bats dominate hitter projections tonight. You’re going to need to some value bats tonight and while FanDuel suggests you can just be more selective with your Dodgers, projections for both sites agree that you plenty of top value can be found in the Milwaukee lineup tonight. Still in the hunt for the wild card, collectively, the Brewers have struggled against LHP this year, but Tommy Henry has a 6.0 K-BB% through eight starts with his only Quality Start coming against the Pirates in his second major league start. He hasn’t even completed five innings in any of his last three starts and with a 47.1 Z-0-Swing%, is generating a 90.6 mph average exit velocity on contact. He doesn’t have an estimator below five, nor does Statcast rate any of his pitches anywhere close to decent this year by Run Value. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against him. Tyrone Taylor (102 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP this season), Keston Hiura (72 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Mike Brosseau (124 wRC+, .152 ISO) are the top three projected DraftKings values for $2.3K or less. Taylor ($2.2K) and Hiura ($2K), along with Andrew McCutchen (107 wRC+, .217 ISO) are top 10 projected FanDuel values for $2.5K or less.

Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .193 ISO) projects as a top overall bat and they top FanDuel value for less than $3K. Will Smith (122 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Justin Turner (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) also double as top bats and top projected FanDuel values within $100 of $3K against Jose Urena (LHBs .390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA – RHBs .290 wOBA, .314 xwOBA).

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 values are the New York Mets on FanDuel, where Eduardo Escobar (95 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (113 wRC+, .213 ISO) for less than $2.5K against Cory Abbott (LHBs .387 wOBA, but just a .319 xwOBA). Abbott has struck out 20.1% of batters this year, but just 18.75% as a starter. He’s also allowed 14 of his 16 barrels (12.3%) as a starter and has just a 27.1 GB%.

All Top Five Projected Bats Come From This Lineup

The Dodgers top an 11 game Monday night slate at 5.74 implied runs without another offense reaching five runs and only three more exceeding four and a half run team totals. The weather has turned and runs scoring is down. There may not be a word strong enough to describe how much PlateIQ projections love them some Dodgers tonight. The top four projecting bats on either site and five of the top six are Dodgers with another also projected among the top 11 on either site. You can’t legally stack that many Dodgers on DraftKings or FanDuel. Jose Urena has a 22.3 K% over his last four starts, including 12 of his last 46, all Giants. While generating half his contact on the ground (49.7%) and allowing just a single home run on 4.4% Barrels/BBE over his last seven starts, Urena has just a 3.9 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 4.70 FIP to a 5.39 DRA. LHBs have torched him this year (.390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA), while he’s been fine against RHBs (.290 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). Colorado’s best reliever, Daniel Bard, also threw 35 pitches on Sunday and is probably unavailable tonight. Freddie Freeman (171 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this year), Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .254 ISO), Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .193 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) and Will Smith (122 wRC+, .204 ISO) eat up the top five hitter projections tonight, while Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) is just a bit below.

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats are the Angels and only on FanDuel. Adrian Martinez has allowed 13 home runs on 17 barrels (10%) over 11 starts. Sure, there’s probably some home run regression to come, but none of that is good and mostly wipes out what he’s accomplished with a respectable 13.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four or a single contact inclusive one below five. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .342 and .379 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Obviously, Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .351 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are your top Angel bats.