DFS Alerts
Drew Robinson (sore hip) scratched Monday; Renato Nunez replaces
Robinson has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not play in Monday’s matchup against the Texas Rangers due to left hip soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Renato Nunez, who will third base and slot directly into Robinson’s vacated ninth spot in the order, which does move Isiah Kiner-Falefa over to second base, but ultimately, the remainder of the Rangers lineup stays intact as they face off against right-hander Michael Fulmer at home this evening.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter
No weather issues on Monday night
Kevin’s evening forecast is up and does not include any areas of concern. Players can read the report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can tune into Crunch Time where Kevin may expand on some of the better hitting conditions tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time
John Gant has a 9.8 K-BB% in 70.1 career major league innings
John Gant has a $4.2K price tag on DraftKings, which if someone wanted to punt their second pitcher spot seems fine. He has a favorable park and a reasonable matchup (Twins 98 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), but has just a 9.8 K-BB% in 70.1 career innings having done a lot of bouncing between the minors and majors for the Braves and Cardinals the last few years. Expectations should not be high though, against a Minnesota offense with some decent left-handed power. While Joe Mauer (125 wRC+, .401 xwOBA, .124 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) excels at getting on base, Brian Dozier (106 wRC+, .201 ISO), Eduardo Max Kepler (114 wRC+, .218 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (119 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (138 wRC+, .285 ISO) bring some thunder directly behind him in the order tonight.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, John Gant Matt Moore is tied for the worst xwOBA (.405) and 95+ mph EV (45%) on the board
Detroit has made some bad pitchers look good recently, but Matt Moore (10 runs in his last start) may not be one of those. He’s tied for the worst xwOBA (.405) and 95+ mph EV (45%) on the board and pitches in the most positive run environment on the board tonight. No other park is even close in terms or pure run scoring. Unfortunately, he has an extreme reverse split (LHBs .436 wOBA, .432 xwOBA since last seaon) and the Tigers have just one of those, who’s not very good (Leonys Martin 59 wRC+ vs LHP last calendar year). Still, the Tigers have a 4.82 implied run line here that’s near the top of the board, which speaks volumes on Moore, and fortunately, he’s pretty bad against RHBs too (.340 wOBA, .352 xwOBA). Nick Castellanos (174 wRC+, .311 ISO) and James McCann (168 wRC+, .245 ISO) have been lefty-mashers, both exceeding a .400 xwOBA over the last calendar year. John Hicks (108 wRC+, .383 xwOBA, .224 ISO) has done some damage himself. Jeimer Candelario (105 wRC+, .132 ISO) is the only other competent bat against southpaws. Everyone else is below a 70 wRC+ and .300 xwOBA against lefties over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: James McCann, Leonys Martin, John Hicks, Jeimer Candelario, Matt Moore Rookie Fernando Romero has had a 22+ K% and 50+ GB% at each minor league stop since 2016.
Tommy Pham is out of the St Louis lineup tonight, making it a bit easier to navigate for the rookie Fernando Romero making his second major league start in St Louis. Romero was one out away from six shutout innings against the Blue Jays in his MLB debut, but as they were in AAA in 21 innings (11.5%), walks were a problem (three of 23 batters faced). He did strike out five with an 11.5 SwStr% and generated a 57.1 GB%. He missed all of 2015, but since returning to A ball in 2016, his strikeout rate has been at least 22% with a ground ball rate above 50% at every stop. That’s basically the upside of most of the guys between he and Strasburg on the salary scale tonight. It may not be as cheap as players wish, but even at $7.7K he’s an interesting SP2 on DraftKings with that profile. If not, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Marella Ozuna, and Paul DeJong all have a wRC+ between 120 and 135 with an ISO between .220 and .245 against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong Jarlin Garcia has allowed the highest rate of barrels per batted ball events on the board (11.4%)
Jarlin Garcia has a 1.09 ERA due to a .151 BABIP, 95.2 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB. His 11.4% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board. His .378 xwOBA is third worst. A reckoning is coming and even without any wind support, Wrigley field is one of the most power friendly parks for right-handed hitters. With Anthony Rizzo out, the Cubs show him eight of those tonight. They have a .280 wOBA against him since last season, but a .361 xwOBA with just a 38.2 GB%. An aging Ben Zobrist (46 wRC+, .074 ISO) has been the worst hitter against southpaws over the last calendar year. All other batters in this lineup are at a 100 wRC+ or better over that span. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini all exceed a 135 wRC+. Javier Baez is now sitting on a .300 ISO vs LHP since last year. Bryant, Contreras and Ian Happ are all above .190 as well.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Victor Caratini, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Jarlin Garcia Zach Eflin (12.2 K% career) faces the hottest offense on the board (142 wRC+ over the last week)
The Giants have a 142 team wRC+ over the last week, highest on the board, while Zach Eflin has a 12.2 K% in 133 major league innings. Left-handed batters have a .387 wOBA (.385 xwOBA) against him since last season, making this an ideal spot for Brandon Belt (145 wRC+, .422 xwOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year). Gregor Blanco (94 wRC+, .121 ISO) and Brandon Crawford (86 wRC+, .142 ISO) have been below average bats against righties, though both are cheap and the latter has a 218 wRC+ over the last week. Buster Posey (113 wRC+, .118 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (120 wRC+, .167 ISO) could see an uptick in power here too. Both exceed a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Eflin has been league average against same-handed batters (.332 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) with just a 29.2 Hard% since last season.
Other tagged players: Gregor Blanco, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen Jeff Samardzija is throwing more sinkers to a lower exit velocity, but has just two more strikeouts than walks
Jeff Samardzija has an 85.5 mph aEV that’s second best on the board and is facing an offense with the second worst strikeout split (27.1% vs RHP), but that’s entirely where the good news ends. The velocity is in decline, he has not exceeded five innings in three starts and he has just 12 strikeouts against 10 walks over 65 batters faced. He’s throwing his sinker 44.5% of the time in an effort to keep the ball in the yard, but his dropping peripherals have still led to a .357 xwOBA. Few thought they’d see a Gabe Kapler lineup with Maikel Franco hitting above Carlos Santana, but the former’s 235 wRC+ (43.5 Hard%) over the last week puts him in the cleanup spot tonight. However, RHBs have both a wOBA and xwOBA below .300 against Samardzija with just a 27.9 Hard% since last season. Santana (116 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP last calendar) year is the LHB with the most power. His .387 xwOBA is 41 points above his actual from that side of the plate They have a .345 xwOBA against Samardizja since the start of 2017. Odubel Herrera (123 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Nick Williams (102 wRC+, .184 ISO) have shown more marginal power in a power friendly park. Cesar Hernandez (103 wRC+, .110 ISO) has shown none at all.
Other tagged players: Jeff Samardzija, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco P.J. Conlon makes his major league debut against a Cincinnati lineup with some right-handed power
P.J. Conlon may make some sense at the minimum cost on DraftKings if paying up for Stephen Strasburg as well, but he’s here simply because Jacob deGrom could not pitch and it was his day. His strikeout rate has been between 18.8% and 20.4% at every stop in the minors (A through AAA) since 2016, while good control has often made the 24 year-old, 13th round pick occasionally effective. He may be a bit over-matched, but the Reds probably don’t know a darn thing about him either. Never the less, their 4.67 implied run line is in a group of nine teams within a 4.4 to 4.8 range at the top of the board. It’s a power friendly park and a lineup with three dangerous bats against southpaws in Joey Votto (139 wRC+, .406 xwOBA, .201 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Eugenio Suarez (130 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Adam Duvall (111 wRC+, .246 ISO). Another factor in favor of Votto here is that the Mets only have a single LHP in their bullpen.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, PJ Conlon Homer Bailey has allowed two HRs in each of his last three starts
The New York Mets currently have the highest implied run line on the board (4.83) in a very power friendly park against a very power friendly pitcher. Homer Bailey has lived up to his name, allowing two in each of his last three starts. Batters from either side of the plate have tagged him for a .350+ wOBA and .370+ xwOBA since last season. His .405 xwOBA and 45% 95+ mph EV this year are both tied for worst on the board. Ironic that Todd Frazier (117 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP last calendar) year is the low man on ISO among the first five in the batting order. Each of the first four (Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera) have at least a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO against righties over the last calendar year. Cespedes and Cabrera both are above a 140 wRC+ over the last week. Conforto has a -48 wRC+ and 57.1 K% over that span, but may be facing a slump buster in Bailey and costs below $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey Three effective contact managers are your mid-price range pitching options tonight
Kyle Hendricks, Dallas Kuechel and Michael Fulmer are the contact managers on today’s board. They can occasionally pop off a few strikeouts, but all have strikeout rates between 18-20% this year with low exit velocities. In Keuchel’s case, he’s leaving a few more pitches over the plate and surrendered a season high three HRs to the same Oakland team he faces tonight two starts back. His 56 GB% is the highest of the three, though not up to his usual standards, while his 87.3 mph aEV is also highest of the three. He does pitch in the most negative run environment of the three as well, in Oakland tonight. Fulmer has increased his slider usage to above 30% in each of his last three starts, though has only exceeded five strikeouts once and been above an 8.7 SwStr% twice this season. Velocity has ticked up as well in each of his last three starts and while he pitches in the most dangerous park on the board tonight (Texas), the Rangers have a 25.9 K% vs RHP. Hendricks is doing the things he usually does, beating his estimators with strong defense and tons of weak ground balls. His 84.8 mph aEV is best on the board, though his strikeouts and swinging strike rate are down a bit. He may have the overall top matchup on the board against the Marlins (17.7 K-BB% vs RHP). Each of these three pitchers is between $7.9K and $9.6K on either site and offer reasonable floors, though not much excitement and much lower upsides than Stephen Strasburg.
Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Hendricks Stephen Strasburg (28.6%) and Tyson Ross (27%) are the only two pitchers above a 22 K% tonight
There may be a lot of ground balls and solid contact managers on a seven game slate, but the only two strikeout rates above 22% appear in the latest start on the board in San Diego. Stephen Strasburg (28.6 K%) is the easy play against a Padres’ offense with a 27.9 K% vs RHP. He’ll be extremely difficult to get away from on FanDuel for $10K, though DraftKings makes it more interesting at a $13.6 cost that’s $4K more expensive than any other pitcher on the board. Ownership projections should give us a better picture later. They are available to premium subscribers through LineupHQ and on the Projected Ownership page. In a price range among all of these low strikeout, but strong contact management pitchers is Tyson Ross (27 K%). The matchup is not ideal against the Washington offense, even in San Diego, but has failed to produce six innings in just one start this season, immediately following a 127 pitch no-hit attempt and even in that start, he struck out seven, a total he’s reached in four of his last five starts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Tyson Ross Elite Upside at Potentially Discounted Ownership
Nick Castellanos always seems to be under-owned in DFS. For whatever reason, people just refuse to play him. After missing yesterday’s game with an illness, there’s a decent chance that he’ll be low owned again tonight, despite a matchup against Matt Moore. Over the last two seasons, he has a allowed a .357 xwOBA to right-handed hitters with a very high fly ball rate. In that same time frame, Castellanos owns a .418 xwOBA against left-handed pitching.
Too Cheap for this Matchup and Ballpark
Dollar for dollar, Michael Conforto is my favorite hitter of the slate. Despite a slow start this season, he still boasts a .384 xwOBA and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. He draws an excellent matchup against Homer Bailey, who has allowed a .370 xwOBA to lefties over the last two years. The icing on the cake is the fact that the game is being playing in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Always in Play Against a Lefty
The Reds draw a boom or bust matchup against P.J. Conlon, who is making his major league debut. He has a funky delivery and doesn’t really project all that well for the majors. He has a low strikeout rate in the minors with a high fly-ball rate. This doesn’t bode well for his first start in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. Adam Duvall is off to a cold start this season, but his advanced statistics suggest some positive regression. Even with the slow start, he still boasts a .365 xwOBA against lefties since the start of last season.