DFS Alerts
Ugly Slate for Pitching
While Kyle Hendricks is the clear number two pitching option, you know it’s not the strongest slate. I’m not trying to knock on Hendricks, he just doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we typically see from the second best pitcher on the mound. In six starts this season, he owns a 3.98 SIERA with a mediocre strikeout rate of 19%. While the Marlins have been pesky, they are still an exploitable matchup for pitchers. Their projected lineup has a .293 xwOBA with a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Only Ace on the Mound
Creating leverage in tournaments is key to success in DFS, but we should only fade the chalk when there are viable alternatives. With only seven games on the schedule tonight, I don’t see a reason to fade Stephen Strasburg against the Padres. He’s clearly the most talented pitcher and he has the best matchup to boot. The projected lineup for the Padres has a .271 xwOBA and a 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. With no other elite arms on the mound tonight, we have no choice but to eat the Strasburg chalk.
Will The Regression Start Tonight?
The Cubs played a late game last night, and while I think Garcia will regress, I’m willing to take a shot on him at this price tonight. Garcia has been pitching well above his advanced stats this season. He has a 1.09 ERA with a 4.73 SIERA this season, and a very low .151 BABIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy but continues to use his above average changeup to keep hitters off balance. I think there is regression coming, and it could even happen tonight, but with the stud pitchers on the slate, I’d rather take the savings when looking for an SP2. The Cubs projected starting lineup has a .052 ISO with a 25.8% strikeout rate against lefties this season. A lot of groundballs and fly balls, but not a lot of hard contact against lefties. If we can get 13-15 points out of Garcia, he will be fine as an SP2 tonight.
Playing The Price Game
The pitchers on this slate are bad outside of Strasburg, so on FanDuel, you’re just playing Strasburg and not overthinking it, but on DraftKings, you need a second pitcher. I’m playing the salary and hoping Gant doesn’t get blown up tonight against the Twins. With the Cardinals last season and in AAA this season, Gant has posted a high groundball rate, and has done a great job limiting the hard contact. He does this with his above average changeup, and his funky delivery to the plate. The Twins projected starters have a .170 ISO with a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With that said, they have a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 44.5% groundball rate. I’m not hoping for a massive day with Gant — I’m hoping for 12ish points on DraftKings and that Strasburg and my hitters have good days.
I'm Worth A Lot More Than My Price
Playing James McCann against left-handed pitching is one of my favorite things to do, and now with no catcher-only spot on FanDuel, I like to play him over there even more. Since the start of 2017, he has a .286 ISO with a .426 wOBA and a .508 xwOBA against left-handed pitching. He has a low strikeout rate with a high contact rate and a 41.4% hard hit rate. In that same span, Matt Moore has a .188 ISO with a 37.4 % hard hit rate against right-handed hitters. He has a .340 wOBA with a 1.44 WHIP and a 5.26 xFIP. This is an excellent spot to attack McCann, and he’s one of my top plays on the slate.
Attack This Pitcher
P.J. Conlon will be making his Major League debut tonight, and according to multiple scouting sources, he’s not ready for big league work. He spent all of last season in AA and only pitched 24 innings in AAA this season. In 24 innings in AAA, Conlon posted a 4.94 xFIP with a 1.58 WHIP. He also has a pretty high fly ball rate with a very low swinging strike rate. I really like the Reds tonight, and I’m hoping they hit Blandino in the second spot. We don’t have any type of sample size for him against lefties, but he has an 85.7% contact rate and a 66.7% hard contact rate in the sample size that we have. At this price and in this matchup, I’m willing to take a shot on Blandino tonight.
Hitting The Ball Well Right Now
I always like finding value shortstops, and Brandon Crawford is that guy for me tonight. He’s hitting .351 over his last ten games and receives a massive ballpark upgrade. Since the start of 2017, Eflin has a 1.45 WHIP with a .387 wOBA against left-handed hitters. He also has a very low strikeout rate and a high home run rate. Both this season and last season, Crawford has had a much higher xwOBA than wOBA. The power numbers are down, but I’ll gladly take a multi-hit game at this low price.
Lots of Homers
This one is pretty easy – you have a team facing off against a pitcher named Homer, who struggles with homers, with the game being played at the best park in baseball for homers. Bailey has already given up 8 HRs on the year through 39.1 IP and giving up the dong has been an issue for him throughout his entire career. The Mets are cheap enough across the industry that you can comfortably stack them with the high priced Stephen Strasburg.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier
Stackstros
Whenever the Astros square off against a left handed pitcher you need to consider stacking them in GPPs. If that pitcher is a washed up, below average veteran you stop considering and you just do it. The Astros led the league last year with a 120 wRC+ versus LHP and despite a slow start to the 2018 season (102 wRC+) their lineup projects very favorably against southpaws. Houston’s 1-5 hitters + Gattis are either well above average offensively against LHP, or in the case of the younger guys (Gurriel, Bregman), project to be well above average against LHP. The Astros are a top stack of the night despite this game being played in the pitcher friendly Coliseum.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Yulieski Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman Soft Contact, Lots of HRs
I’m intrigued to see how SP2 ownership numbers shake out on DraftKings on Monday night. Strasburg projects to be the heavy SP1 chalk on both FanDuel + DK but who to pitch at SP2 is a bit murkier. Dallas Keuchel has not been good for fantasy this year which I’m hoping leads to at least a tiny bit of an ownership discount – as Monday’s slate is smaller and lacks high end pitching options out of Strasburg I would expect Keuchel to be relatively high owned but there’s still a chance that he’s lower owned than what he would be relative to past years. Keuchel has never been a high-end strikeout guy but he’s especially been disappointing in that respect this year (18.3 K%). It appears Keuchel has been very unlucky in terms of the long ball – he’s allowing 1.67 HR/9 (career is .92) despite generating soft contact on 28.1% of balls in play. Despite being unimpressive so far this year, this sets up as a favorable spot for Keuchel in an above average strikeout matchup against the A’s at the pitcher friendly Coliseum. I give the slight nod to Keuchel as my preferred SP2 for both cash games and GPPs.
He's Back
Those of you who just started following baseball last year likely have a negative perception of Tyson Ross. After an injury plagued 2016, Ross threw 49 innings for the Rangers in 2017 and was absolutely terrible. Prior to those two years, Ross was an inning eating stud for the Padres as he posted an above average strikeout rate and great run prevention numbers. Fast forward to 2018 and Ross has seemingly returned to his old (good) self. Ross is the owner of a 3.28 ERA through 35.2 IP and has a strong 27% strikeout rate. More importantly, his peripheral numbers look good and largely support an ERA in the low 3’s. Regardless of what you attribute his re-found success to (a return to strong dependence on the slider seems likely) it appears that Ross is here to stay. I don’t love this matchup against the Nationals but I would much rather run out Ross in GPPs on Monday night than pretty much anyone not named Stephen Strasburg, Dallas Keuchel, or Kyle Hendricks.
Crash Hard
Jarlin Garcia is going to crash, and crash hard. The young lefty has posted a 1.09 ERA through 33 IP to start the 2018 season but his peripheral stats indicate that sort of success is far from sustainable. Garcia has a 4.73 SIERA and despite an elite ERA he really has not done anything well this season – he has a below average strikeout rate, an above average walk rate, and a very lucky .151 BABIP. Garcia also has the biggest gap in the League between wOBA (.204) and xWOBA (.378). Cub hitters won’t get the benefit of Wrigley wind on Monday night but are poised to tee off against the over-performing Marlins lefty.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Anthony Rizzo Skills Matter, Ballparks Matter
Zach Eflin has just a 10.8% strikeout rate against left-handed batters to this point in his career. He allows fly balls and above average hard contact to lefties as well. Mostly due to his horrendous home ballpark, Brandon Belt’s skills against right-handed pitching often go underappreciated. Since the start of 2017, we’re looking at a guy with a 42% hard hit rate, 52% fly balls and a .273 ISO. Take him out of the toughest park for left-handed power and put him in one of the best against a low K/FB pitcher, and the upside is clear to see.
Affordable Leadoff Bat
Almora being a Core Play is dependent on his batting at the top of the order. If he does, his plate skills (career 12% K, 8.5% BB, .377 OBP vs LHP) make him undervalued at the top of this lineup. Jarlin Garcia is due for some major regression against right-handed batters with a .151 BABIP this season despite 39% hard hits allowed.
Attack The Most Attackable Pitcher
Nick Castellanos missed Sunday’s game with the flu, so we need to be sure he’s in the lineup, but if he plays, this is the best Tigers bat to take advanatge of the attackable skills of Matt Moore. Dating back to last season, Moore has a 17.5% K rate with 44% fly balls and 38% hard hits allowed to righties. The numbers are far worse so far this season. Castellanos has been crushing the ball against lefties with a 46% hard hit rate and .308 ISO, all while making strong contact which puts him high on my board in all formats.