DFS Alerts
Next In Line Tonight
There’s a huge gap between Strasburg and the next pitcher on the list, but with some early season question marks around Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Hendricks is my preferred SP2 tonight. He is doing his typical thing with low walks and a lot of soft contact which more than make up for his below average strikeouts. Against a Miami team that is dead last in the league in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching, it’s easy to see the path to a quality start here.
The Top Of The Heap
Strasburg is so far ahead of the rest of the pitchers on this slate that he falls into ‘don’t overthink it’ territory. He has double digit strikeouts in two of his past three games, has the best skills across the board of anyone going tonight with high strikeouts, low walks and a ton of soft contact, and on top of the skills, he faces a Padres team with the highest K% in the league against righties. I’m hoping his high salary on DK/FDRFT will help keep his ownership somewhat in check.
Today’s BvP coin flip!
A few days I gave you Brandon Crawford, well he came through going 3 for 5 with a nice dong to keep his domination of Folty going. Well on Monday we get a similar situation as Adrian Gonzalez goes up against Homer Bailey. Gonzalez is 11/25 in his career with 6 home runs and 2 doubles and gets to play in the Great American “Small” Park of Cincinnati. This is similar to Crawford due to both having early season struggles (Gonzalez – .231/.311/.372). There is a chance Gonzalez won’t see the field though as the Mets have recently been experimenting with Jay Bruce at first base. Unlike on Friday with Crawford, I’ll be fading Gonzalez on Monday as he is a little bit more expensive($3500 compared to Crawford $2800) and hasn’t had the type of success in a hitters park like GAB that I would like to see, only hitting expected value once there and that was 4 years ago.
As reported by: ESPN
Do the trends warrant paying the price for Strasburg?
Looking at past trends, players priced $13k+ have been quite hit or miss. Pitchers are hitting a 56.5% consistency clip and only averaging +1.93 actual points over projection. The split don’t change much for that pitcher pitching on the road(57.2% consistency). Strasburg has been in the +$13k range just once in his DFS career and failed to hit value only putting up 12.45 points at the NY Mets. So what does this tell us? Not only is it taking a lot of your salary away, its also a gamble considering its only hitting a small percentage over 50%. The floor may be there for cash game, but I will be finding different routes on Monday in GPPs.
Mike Soroka and his promising 2.56 xFIP look to build upon solid MLB debut
Soroka is coming off of a solid Major League debut his last time out, allowing just one earned run and racking up five strikeouts in six innings of work. His performance certainly caught the attention of the sites across the daily fantasy industry, as he’s had his price increased to over $7000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after previously being listed near the stone minimum on both sites for his first outing. Even though this is only Soroka’s second big league start, he remains an elite starting pitching prospect in the Atlanta Braves system and appears to have adjusted quickly to the Majors, as evidenced by the 0.0% walk rate and 16.3% swinging strike rate he recorded against the New York Mets in his debut. While that swinging strike rate is likely unsustainable long-term, it does indicate how much upside and strikeout ability Sobotka possesses, especially for a pitcher in the mid-range on both major sites. The San Francisco Giants did explode for 11 runs in Saturday’s win, but they are still an exploitable offense for opposing starting pitchers and their confirmed lineup on Sunday owns just a 0.153 ISO and 0.304 wOBA versus right-handed pitching dating back to the 2017 season, neither number being all that imposing for Soroka’s projected value. Soroka also checks-in as a respectable home favorite (-135 money line), which just further adds to his appeal for all formats on today’s slates, and sets him up as an ideal pivot away from Chirs Archer as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites like DraftKings, though his opportunity cost on FanDuel is likely too much to realistically overcome given the plethora of aces taking the mound this afternoon
As reported by: FanGraphs
Chris Archer remains poised for regression with a 3.69 SIERA and 14.0% SwStr%
If looking solely at 2018 surface numbers, mainly an unsightly 6.05 ERA, it would be easy to fall for the narrative that Chris Archer is no longer the same high upside starting pitcher that he’s been over the last several seasons. However, his rough start can be attributed to some significant bad luck, as he’s fallen victim to a .373 BABIP and a 64.0% LOB%, both being totals that should be due for some positive regression given Archer’s career .299 BABIP and 72.2% LOB% in combination with a respectable 3.69 SIERA in the early-going. Some of this discrepancy can be attributed to an elevated 40.5% hard hit percentage, but his surface numbers should still be much better than they currently indicate. Not only are his SIERA and 3.61 xFIP nearly two and a half runs better than his aforementioned ERA, but Archer has also induced a 14.0% swinging strike rate through seven starts, which isn’t significantly higher than the swinging strike rates he’s posted over the last three seasons when he recorded a strikeout rate less than 29.0% on just one occasion, meaning he should also be due for some positive regression to his currently pedestrian 24.6% strikeout rate. Further adding to the likelihood of Archer beginning his turnaround Sunday afternoon is the fact that he’ll be taking the mound against this partially banged up, boom-or-bust Toronto Blue Jays offense at home in the friendly confines of Tropicana Park, where he has consistently been a better pitcher throughout his career and even managed to record a 32.7% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, and 2.99 xFIP over the course of the 2017 season. That being said, don’t miss out on the opportunity to buy low on a stud starting pitcher in tournament formats before his luck turns around and is once again priced appropriately across the daily fantasy industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Glasses Will Come In Handy When Mashing Against Chad Kuhl
Chad Kuhl’s struggles against left-handers rolls on. This season, left-handers are 20-for-56 with a 1.154 OPS against Kuhl. Eric Sogard, a lefty, will start today for the Brewers. He’s cheap, gets a nice lineup spot hitting 6th, has the platoon-advantage and this game takes place in a nice hitter’s park. He’s never an exciting play, but this has more to do with the matchup. I like Sogard in cash games and am even fine with him in tournaments as a one-off or part of a mini Brewers stack.
A Pitching Option To Consider For Salary Relief
There is always risk with this player, but Marco Estrada has one of the better matchups if you’re dumpster diving at pitcher for salary relief. Estrada has not been great this season and he’s allowed at least one home run in five of his six starts this season. The long ball is his biggest weakness and enemy. The good news here is that the Rays have hit the fewest home runs this season against right-handers. This game is also in Tampa Bay, which is more of a pitcher’s park. The Rays also have a 22.5% K%, so there’s some strikeout upside. Again, there is risk here with Estrada being a fly-ball pitcher, but if he can navigate around some of the power, it’s possible he has a decent-enough outing here.
Cheap Catcher In Great Hitting Environment
If you’re looking to punt the catcher position, give Tyler Flowers a look. He’s drawing the start today and hitting 6th in a potent Braves lineup. The game is also in Atlanta, and SunTrust Park has been a good hitter’s ballpark. Flowers is only 2-for-12 this season so the numbers don’t look great, but this is a player who hit 12 home runs last season in just 99 games, so the power is there. He’ll hold the platoon-advantage over left-hander Andrew Suarez, who has struggled more against right-handers this season.
Cheap Outfielder Drawing The Leadoff Assignment
He’s not an exciting player, but Juan Lagares is getting a chance to hit leadoff for the Mets today and he’s dirt-cheap around the industry. Lagares is not someone with a lot of power (he only had three home runs last year in 252 at-bats), but he does have some speed so a stolen base isn’t out of the question. He’ll hold the platoon-advantage against left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has allowed an OPS that’s 200 points greater to right-handers (which Lagares is). Lagares profiles more as a cash-game play to help you fit in the studs on this slate. Just know there’s pinch-hit risk later in the game if the Mets decide they want to give an at-bat to Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto.
Wide Splits
Devers isn’t available on FanDuel’s main slate but he’s my top cash game option at the 3B position on other sites that do include this game. Doug Fister has relatively wide splits for his career (.321 wOBA vs LHB, .296 wOBA vs RHB) and Devers is poised to take advantage of them. Travis Shaw is the top cash game option on FanDuel.
Weak OF
The outfield position is unusually weak for Sunday’s main slate. After you slot in your Twins exposure you’re not left with a lot of affordable options in good game environments. At the time of this writing, the Yankees have the second highest implied run total of the slate (5.2) and Gardner is slotted to lead off. Gardner’s price is especially nice on DraftKings ($3,400) but he’s a cash option for $3,000 on FanDuel as well.
Injury Opens Up Opportunity For This Pitcher
With Jordan Montgomery out with an injury, Domingo German will get a chance to spot start. German pitched four scoreless innings in relief of Montgomery in his last start, throwing 61 pitches. German has a 28.6% K% this season and was a starter in the minors, so this isn’t new territory for him. The matchup against a left-handed heavy Indians team isn’t ideal so he’s not in consideration for cash games, but he’s priced low enough to consider in tournaments.
Cash Lock, Strong GPP Fade?
He was a no brainer on Saturday night and despite a disappointing performance he’s a no brainer again on Sunday. I still have some concerns with Brian Dozier’s start of the season – he has not been hitting the ball hard and actually has a terrible batted ball profile (24.5 Soft%) – but the awfulness of James Shields still makes him the best cash game option of the day at second base. Due to Dozier’s high projected ownership and some legit concerns over a dip in his average exit velocity this year, Dozier makes for a strong fade in GPPs.
Where Home Runs Come From
The Rockies Kyle Freeland is a decent pitcher. He gets ground balls and limits hard contact despite very low strikeouts to right-handed batters. However, Yoenis Cespedes has the exact right skill set to win this matchup with his extreme 58% fly ball rate and 42% hard hits against lefties, leading to a .287 ISO since the beginning of 2017. He has strong numbers against ground ball pitchers. Teammate Wilmer Flores also has a long history of hitting well against both left-handed and ground ball pitchers. I don’t love the Mets overall, but these two righties have home run upside today.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores