DFS Alerts

Very Dangerous Spot for Tonight's Top Pitcher

A Friday night 12 game slate includes three $10K pitchers, but only one on FanDuel with one more exceeding $9K on both sites. This is not a very strong pitching slate, considering the size of it and some of those expensive arms may not even be viable. Most expensively on either site, Robbie Ray has six straight Quality Starts with a total of six runs allowed (none in either of his last two without any walks). He’s gone through streaks of volatility with strikeouts, walks and contact, but is now in a place where all of those numbers are either strong or not much of a hindrance (28.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 7.6% Barrels/BBE). While 24 of his 31 barrels have left the yard, non-FIP estimators are all within one-tenth of a run of his 3.45 ERA. What could be a problem here is that he’s strictly a fastball/slider guy and the Braves (124 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 9.9 BB%, 14.3 HR/FB vs LHP) have pounded both those pitches since the break (0.92 wFB/C, 0.59 wSL/C) and run out predominantly right-handed lineups (Ray has a near 40 points w/OBA & xwOBA split). Despite the extremely dangerous matchup, Ray will be pitching in the most negative run environment on the board and still projects as the top pitcher on the board and third best DraftKings value (six best FanDuel value). For more on all of tonight’s top priced pitchers, including a couple who may be unusable, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Victor Robles (neck) scratched Thursday

Victor Robles (neck) scratched Thursday

The Strongly Rated Middle of the Pack Offense Than Could Win a GPP

It’s a bit of a surprise that none of the three offenses above four and a half runs really stand out in terms of ownership projections on DraftKings, but perhaps a lot of players will consider paying up for two pitchers and paying down for Wrigley bats, which may be why the Cubs currently project to be the most popular stack (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), though not by much of a margin over the Padres, Astros and Cardinals. All three of those stacks jump the Cubs on FanDuel, where it makes a bit more sense that players would try to stack a top offense with just one pitcher. The Padres are also projected to smash the slate most often, though again, it’s a narrow margin between them and the Cardinals and even the Blue Jays and Astros close behind them. The top projected value stack on either site is the Cubs and that’s where we see the most separation, though the Reds project strongly in this category on DraftKings as well.

The three top rated stacks on either site are currently the Padres, Blue Jays and Cardinals in different orders. The only one of the three without a team run total above four and a half runs, the Blue Jays (4.02) are likely to face the piggyback combination of Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer. Wells hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since July and faced only eight A-ball batters in his lone rehab start. He can’t possibly stick around for more than two to three innings, though Kremer could cover the next five or six, if that’s the route they choose to go, making this a tricky situation and perhaps one players will choose to avoid. After all they are far from the worst pitchers on the board and the Blue Jays have a modest team run total in the middle of the board in a park that diminishes RH power now. It makes a ton of sense that this offense could go overlooked and win a GPP for somebody. Danny Jansen is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 114 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the only one below a .150 ISO.

This is the Park For Most of Your Top Projected Value Bats

You look at the pitchers at the top of the board and then what’s below them and quickly decide you’re paying up for pitching tonight, which is certainly the right move on this slate. That also means you’re going to need some salary savers in your lineup and DraftKings projections firmly suggest Wrigley Field is the place to do that. It’s not just one lineup dripping value though, it’s both in a matchup of Mike Minor against Javier Assad, despite the pitcher friendly weather forecast. Assad has a massive split in very limited work (LHBs .355 wOBA, .431 xwOBA), which is why TJ Friedl (107 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected value on DK and Jake Fraley (138 wRC+, .261 ISO) isn’t far behind. These are the only two LHBs in the projected Cincinnati lineup, though Nick Senzel (74 wRC+) also projects among the top DK values for $2.4K.

On the other side, RHBs have a .404 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Minor this season. Nelson Velazquez (98 wRC+, .254 ISO), Franmil Reyes (60 wRC+, .141 ISO), Nick Madrigal (64 wRC+), P.J. Higgins (51 wRC+) and Yan Gomes (48 wRC+) all project as top 10 DK values for $2.6K or less, while Madrigal and Seiya Suzuki (115 wRC+, .185 ISO) also project as top 10 FanDuel values for less than $3K.

We’re left with only two spots among the top 10 projected DraftKings values after getting through Wrigley and both belong to Cardinals, where projections believe that Corey Dickerson (123 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Brendan Donovan (128 wRC+) mesh well with top projecting bats Lars Nootbaar and Paul Goldschmidt for less than $3K against Cory Abbott (LHBs .376 wOBA, .302 xwOBA over 26.2 innings). Both also project as top FanDuel values for less than $2.5K.

We also find a trio of Cleveland bats projecting for strong value on FanDuel against the returning Zack Greinke. RHBs have been a bit better against him this year (.335 wOBA, .358 xwOBA), which explains why Tyler Freeman (74 wRC+), Amed Rosario (89 wRC+) and Oscar Gonzalez (115 wRC+, .160 ISO) project as top values for less than $2.5K.

Three Offenses Separate From the Pack

The Houston Astros top a 12 team slate at 5.17 implied runs against Cole Ragans, followed by the Cardinals (4.93) and Padres (4.79) before we get some separation from the rest of the board below four and a half team run totals. The top projected bat on the board is Juan Soto (114 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP this year) against the “veteran rookie” Tommy Henry, the most experienced of several rookie pitchers on the main slate with six starts. The 5.0 K-BB% is unimpressive and the 6.1% Barrels/BBE with a below average ground ball rate and 91.1 mph EV won’t sustain. All non-FIP estimators exceed five, while LHBs have a .317 wOBA, but .285 xwOBA against him. With RHBs faring better (.332 wOBA, .363 xwOBA), Manny Machado (127 wRC+, 231 ISO) joins Soto among the top projected bats tonight.

The Houston lineup does feature the most top 10 projected bats (four on FanDuel, three on DraftKings. Cole Ragans has walked more of the 82 batters he’s faced (10) than he’s struck out (9), while allowing four home runs with only one-third of his contact on the ground. A small silver lining is that he’s allowed just five barrels (7.9%) with an 86.2 mph EV, but none of it matters if you’re walking as many as you strike out, which has never previously been a problem in the minors (20+ K-BB% at both AA & AAA this year). RHBs have a .389 wOBA and .358 xwOBA against him, while LHBs are below .215. This is a small sample, so it’s no surprise that Yordan Alvarez (166 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (91 wRC+, .176 ISO) are among the group of top projecting bats, along with Jose Altuve (207 wRC+, .358 ISO) and Alex Bregman (109 wRC+, .146 ISO).

The Cardinals are the only other offense to include a pair of top 10 projecting bats tonight in Paul Goldschmidt (163 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Lars Nootbaar (131 wRC+, .243 ISO) against Cory Abbott, who has struck out batters at nearly a league average rate (20.9%), but also walked too many (11.3%) with six home runs on eight barrels (10.5% Barrels/BBE) over 26.2 innings. His 91.7 Z-Contact% and 44.4 Z-O-Swing% are a terrible combination, but we can’t even bother with estimators because they’re all over the place. He does have a rather wide split in limited action (LHBs .376 wOBA, .302 xwOBA – RHBs .269 wOBA, .243 xwOBA).

Five of Eight SP Below $9K Have Made No More Than Six Major League Starts

With the Orioles potentially doing some weird piggybacking thing that may include Tyler Wells & Dean Kremer, Zack Greinke coming off the IL and Cody Morris facing just 13 batters in his major league debut, we’re down to just five potentially usable pitchers below $9K before even looking at them. And that list includes four rookies with six major league starts or less and Mike Minor. Projecting as the best value among all these arms, in fact, the second best projected value on either site overall, Javier Assad has struck out as many of the 46 batters he’s faced as he’s walked (six each). He’s allowed just a single barrel (2.9%) so far, but with a 90.9 mph EV and average ground ball rate, that certainly won’t last long. Assad had a 20.1 K-BB% in a small sample of 36.1 AAA innings, but is not a strongly regarded prospect at 25 years of age. Why does he project this well? Again, look at your options, but also because he’s facing the Reds (84 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) with pitcher friendly weather and umpiring expectations at Wrigley. If you need to drop down for an SP2 on DraftKings, he’s probably your best option, but may be a bit dicier on a single pitcher site (as is any sub-$9K arm tonight).

The second and third best projecting values among this group are Minor and Cody Morris. The former followed up his best start of the season in Washington with one of his worst against the Cardinals, striking out only a single batter. The Washington start was only his second Quality Start of the season, while his 5.98 ERA nearly matches his 5.96 FIP, but is well above a 4.33 xERA, as 20 of 26 barrels (9.3%) have left the yard. Not that any of it’s good, but that’s the price of playing baseball in Cincinnati. Minor has struck out just 17.4% of batters this season, but will enjoy the same conditions as Assad against the Cubs (94 wRC+, 23.6 K%, but 13.2 HR/FB vs LHP).

The latter (Morris), is a marginally regarded pitching prospect (40+ Future Value grade Fangraphs) less than two months away from his 26th birthday. He struck out 30 of 58 AAA batters this year with six walks and two home runs. He struck out three of 13 Mariners with two walks and a home run in his major league debut last week, but with just a 7.4 SwStr% and hasn’t faced more than 14 batters in any outing at any level of play all season.

Suddenly, Tommy Henry seems like the veteran with six starts, but the only one in which he struck out more than four batters was when he fanned seven of 22 Cardinals, which, as a LHP, is just one of those weird baseball things. The 5.0 K-BB% is unimpressive and the 6.1% Barrels/BBE with a below average ground ball rate and 91.1 mph EV won’t sustain. All non-FIP estimators exceed five, but at least we can be relatively sure the Diamondbacks will give him a normal workload in San Diego (100 wRC+, 20.4 K%, 8.9 HR/FB vs LHP).

Just One Pitcher Exceeding a 25% Strikeout Rate on Wednesday Night

A small six game Wednesday night slate includes three $10K pitchers and another one exceeding $9K on both sites (33% of the board). Most expensively, Alek Manoah has benefited from an 80.4 LOB% and 7.8 HR/FB, but in his favor, he’s only allowing 6% Barrels/BBE (87.4 mph EV, 30.7% 95+ mph EV) with excellent control (6.1 BB%), while the strikeout rate is starting to creep upward (27.6% last four starts). Sitting on a 17.2 K-BB% for the season, his 2.48 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.35 FIP to a 3.84 xFIP for the reasons mentioned, but he’s recorded at least two seventh inning outs in more than one-third of his starts. He has a marginal matchup (Orioles 100 wRC+, 22.3 K%) in a now power suppressing park in Baltimore and may be extra motivated after last night’s bench clearing incident, if you buy into that stuff. Weather and umpiring appear to be neutral. Manoah projects as merely tonight’s fourth best arm and seventh best value on either site, which essentially means middle of the board, but he could be a bit undervalued here.

Just $100 less on FanDuel ($500 on DraftKings), Yu Darvish has struck out exactly one-quarter of batters faced this year (second best on the board) and also gone at least seven innings in 13 of his last 25 starts. A 3.63 xERA is the estimator furthest removed from his 3.26 ERA (20.2 K-BB%). The Diamondbacks have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP, but with a 21.2 K% and 12.2 HR/FB. They’re on the rise with the injection of new blood into their lineup, including top prospect Corbin Carroll. San Diego is generally a pitcher friendly run environment, but may have the most hitter friendly forecast on the slate. Never the less, Darvish projects as the second best arm on the slate and fourth best value on DraftKings, where he is $800 cheaper, though just a middling value (sixth) on FanDuel.

You wonder what keeps a guy with a 32.4 K% from being a permanent part of the rotation, but perhaps it’s the 9.1 BB% and 24.9 GB%, though the former isn’t extreme and the latter comes with just 7.9% Barrels/BBE and 34.5% 95+ mph EV. A 3.69 xFIP is Cristian Javier’s only estimator more than half a run removed from his 3.07 ERA and that’s probably because xFIP doesn’t handle extreme fly ball BABIP outliers (.240) very well, but this one could stick considering the profile and the .266 mark the Houston defense allows. Within $200 of $10K on either site against the Rangers (94 wRC+, 23.8 K%) in a controlled, negative run environment with the roof closed in Houston, Javier projects as the top arm and value on the slate, where the concern now becomes about ownership. He is volatile enough to come in underweight on if need be, though perhaps only Darvish can come close to his upside.

Whereas Jordan Montgomery was striking out batters at a below average rate with a swinging strike rate above 13% as a member of the Yankees, he’s struck out 22.9% of batters with a 10.3 SwStr% as a Cardinal with batters making more contact against him. It’s all very strange, but he rarely walks anyone (4.8%) and the Cardinals are encouraging him to throw more sinkers to increase his ground ball rate (58% since the trade) in front of their great infield defense. The strikeout increase may just be an unintentional byproduct. Overall, his 3.15 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.43 xFIP to a 4.19 DRA, but he could certainly maintain that gap with this defense (-17 Runs Prevented) and park, which does forecast some pitcher friendly weather tonight against the Nationals (92 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 8.5 HR/FB). It’s a nice run prevention spot, but not a high upside one. Montgomery projects as tonight’s third best arm and fifth best value on either site.

Twins-Yankees postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Twins-Yankees postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

The Surprising Stack That Rates as Well as the Brewers

It’s not going to surprise anybody that the visiting offense at Coors is projected to smash the slate more often than any other offense. And if it were a smaller slate, the margin of more than twice any other team projected Smash% would not even be much of a surprise. However, this is a 12 game slate we’re talking about with the Brewers exceeding a 20% Smash projection and no other team in double digits currently (though projections are fluid and constantly updated throughout the day). However, the Brewers top the board at 6.39 implied runs where the Dodgers are the only other offense exceeding a five run total, where we don’t even know who’s pitching for the Giants yet and nearly ever park east of Coors is expecting pitcher friendly weather. So, the dynamic is that the Brewers are expected to smash the slate nearly a quarter of the time and project to be owned more than twice as much as any other stack on FanDuel. They’re also projected to be the most popular stack on DraftKings, but only 50% more than the Guardians and Cardinals currently. Where we do see a more interesting dynamic is in the Value% column. The Cubs are easily projected to be the top value stack on DraftKings (though Milwaukee is second, about 10 percentage points behind). However, both the Brewers and Cubs are packed in with the Guardians and Giants atop value projections.

With smash projections well ahead of also heavy ownership projections, the Brewers do project the top Leverage Rating on DraftKings, where they’re slightly more expensive than on FanDuel, making them a bit tougher to afford with a lack of viable low priced pitching (which should also make Mike Mayers correlate very well with Milwaukee stacks). They also project the second best rating on FanDuel currently, but behind the Toronto Blue Jays, which is interesting considering that this is now a park that suppresses right-handed power. Kyle Bradish had a 13.2 K-BB%, but was allowing 11.7% Barrels/BBE through his first 10 major league starts. His second go around has resulted in a K-BB increase (14.5%) with just 3.6% Barrels/BBE over seven starts with a 2.66 ERA/3.78 FIP/3.94 xFIP. He’s thrown an impressive 15 scoreless innings in Cleveland and Houston over his last two starts. The Blue Jay sit in the middle of the board with a 4.25 team run total, though Bradish does have a pretty substantial reverse split (RHBs .384 wOBA, .352 xwOBA). The Blue Jays have scored 11 runs against Bradish in 14.1 innings (two home runs, three barrels).

The Cardinals and Astros are two more offenses that draw strong ratings. These are the two offenses right below the Brewers and Dodgers, though neither exceeds five implied runs. Paolo Espino has allowed 16 home runs (17.4 HR/FB), but just 17 barrels (7.4%) over 15 starts. However, his 4.65 ERA aligns closely with his 4.60 xERA on the season with his 4.22 within half a run of all estimators. Espino doesn’t walk many (4.7%), but doesn’t strike out many either (18.5%) and his next six inning start will be his first. St Louis is a firmly negative run environment with pitcher friendly weather expectations, but the Cardinals have a 121 wRC+ at home. Tyler O’Neill and Yadier Molina are the only two in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season.

Houston is also a negative run environment (though power friendly) with the roof closed. Glenn Otto has struck out just 18 batters over his last five starts, a season high eight of them in his last start against the Red Sox. He’s completed six innings in just five of his 21 starts (all Quality Starts) with all estimators above his 4.82 ERA (5.9 K-BB%) and only a 4.97 xFIP below five. There are some leaks in the Houston lineup, but there’s also Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker all above a 135 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHP this season and batters from either side of the plate within five points of a .350 xwOBA against Otto this year.

Lots of Strong Projected Value Despite Pitcher Friendly Weather

As expected, with sites not sufficiently pricing up Coors bats all season, Rowdy Tellez (122 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP this season) is not only the top projected bat on the board, but the second best projected FanDuel value for just $3.1K. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .342 and .362 wOBA and xwOBA against Chad Kuhl this season. However, the surprise here is that the only other top 10 projected value in the Milwaukee projected lineup is Jace Peterson (112 wRC+, .184 ISO), who is having a bit of a breakout season (or career year) and costs just $2.6K.

Where FanDuel projections suggest we can find the most value is in the visiting lineup in Kansas City. The Guardians have a modest 4.39 team run total that’s still top half of the board against Kris Bubic, despite some pitching friendly expected weather and umpiring. Bubic has walked seven of his last 65 batters with as many strikeouts (four) as home runs allowed. He has just a 6.5 K-BB% with 46.5% of his contact at least 95 mph off the bat and a 4.66 xERA one of just two estimators below five. Batters from either side of the plate have smoked him for better than a .335 wOBA and xwOBA this season. Costing less than $2.5K on FanDuel, Amed Rosario (135 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP this year), Oscar Gonzalez (103 wRC+, .137 ISO), Tyler Freeman (92 wRC+) and Owen Miller (61 wRC+) are all top projected values. Freeman is the only one who doubles as a top 10 projected value on DraftKings ($2.4K).

Five of the top six projected values on DraftKings are Cubs costing $2.6K or less, despite Wrigley also expected to play pitcher friendly tonight. After striking out just 10 with eight strikeouts over his last three starts, Justin Dunn has struck out nine of 38 batters with just two walks over his last two starts against the Phillies and Cardinals. With just a 29.9 GB%, he has been barreled up eight times (11.8%) with seven home runs in five starts. The 21.2 HR/FB should regress some, but the contact profile will be a problem in Cincinnati (though maybe not so poorly tonight). His 4.63 ERA is actually below all estimators, but more like his last two and fewer than his first three could change that in a hurry. We do have to be careful here because Dunn was a decently regarded prospect not too long ago, though LHBs have smashed him in a small sample this year (.400+ wOBA and xwOBA) and RHBs have handled him well too (.346 wOBA, .324 xwOBA). Rafael Ortega (93 wRC+, .121 ISO) is the top projected value on boht sites with Nick Madrigal (76 wRC+) among the top 10 on both sites too. Alfonso Rivas (99 wRC+), Yan Gomes (72 wRC+) and Franmil Reyes (93 wRC+, .168 ISO) are all top projected DraftKings values.

The Offense That Dominates Hitter Projections Tonight

On a 12 game slate with pitcher friendly weather in nearly every park east of Coors, we find the Brewers atop the board at 6.39 implied runs a bit ahead of the Dodgers (5.96) against the unconfirmed pitching plans of the Giants and then a near full run separation to the other five offenses between four and a half and five run team totals. The surprise among PlateIQ hitter projections tonight is not at all that the top four projections on the board all belong to Brewers, but that none of the top 10 projected bats are Dodgers. In fact, no other team features multiple top 10 projected bats aside from the Brewers. Each of the remaining six beyond that are basically perennial MVP candidates (Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Soto) outside of Ian Happ (121 wRC+, .188 ISO) against Justin Dunn (LHBs .423 wOBA, .431 xwOBA), although he has been much better over his last two starts than he was in his first three and Wrigley weather is currently forecast to be pitcher friendly.

Onto those Brewers though. Chad Kuhl has allowed at least three runs in five innings or less in eight consecutive starts since a three-hit shutout against the Dodgers. His 5.19 ERA is an exact match for his xERA (90.4 mph EV, 9.4% Barrels/BBE) and within one-third of a run of all estimators (7.8 K-BB%). Kuhl’s only positive pitch has been his slider (35.9%, -1 RV/100, 34.7 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .275), but the Brewers are the fourth best offense in baseball against sliders (0.18 wSL/C). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .342 and .362 wOBA and xwOBA against Kuhl this season. Rowdy Tellez (122 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board, immediately followed by Christian Yelich (119 wRC+, .149 ISO), Willy Adames (104 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Hunter Renfroe (125 wRC+, .153 ISO). This is basically the top half of the projected order and with either site failing to sufficiently price up Coors bats this season, we’ll probably be talking about some of them again as top values. This is convenient, considering how expensive almost all of the usable pitchers are tonight, but has the potential to jam up ownership, even on a large slate.

Plug in This Cheap Arm in a Great Spot and Stack Coors

Tonight’s top projected value on both sites is a matchup and price play. Mike Mayers has struck out nine of 42 batters (12.6 SwStr%), though two starts, but has also walked five and allowed three home runs. With most of his work out of the bullpen, he has an average 13.0 K-BB%, but major issues in a contact profile that includes a 29.1 GB%, 91.1 mph EV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE and 48.7% 95+ mph EV. His 5.19 xERA nearly matches his 5.17 ERA with contact neutral estimators half a run to a run lower. This could be the most positive run environment on the board outside Coors tonight, but the Tigers have a 70 wRC+ (25.9 K%, 7.4 HR/FB) on the road and 71 wRC+ (25.2 K%, 7.2 HR/FB) vs RHP. Are you using Mayers on a single pitcher site for $5.8K? It’s almost interesting in GPPs. The much easier question is for DraftKings players at less than $5K. Plug him in and stack Coors.

Each of the next five best projected values cost at least $9.5K on DraftKings and were already covered in Top of the Board Pitching Analysis. On FanDuel, Jose Quintana breaks through that group, but has virtually no upside. He has moved to a great park with a great defense (17 Runs Prevented), but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to strike out anyone. After punching out 13 of his first 46 post-trade batters faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 80 with eight walks, but a terrific contact profile (53.1 GB%, 86.8 mph EV). Quintana has allowed a barrel in just one of his last five starts, but you’d still probably like to see a few more strikeouts than walks. Non-FIP estimators (6.6 HR/FB) range from a 3.84 xFIP to a 4.73 DRA behind an 11.8 K-BB%. The Nationals have just a 20.3 K% vs LHP (92 wRC+), but 137 wRC+ and 19.9 K% over the last week. Quintana is a pure run prevention play. You’re basically playing the park and defense for less than $8.5K.

It is really difficult to find much on the lower half of the board to like, but realize that almost every park east of Coors has a pitcher friendly weather forecast tonight, so maybe a Kyle Bradish, who has muted the hard contact issues in his second go around in the big leagues, or Mitch White could be a viable SP2 for less than $7K in Baltimore. Or even Justin Dunn, who’s looked much better in his last two starts, at Wrigley.

Top of the Board Pitching Analysis (Part II)

Joe Musgrove struck out a season high 11 Giants last time out after striking out just two in his previous start. His previous season high of 10 occurred one start after he struck out a single batter. Musgrove makes it a point to bounce back strong from his poor starts. Not that he’s had many this year with a 3.01 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.14 xERA to a 3.38 FIP not too far above. Musgrove combines great peripherals (19.6 K-BB%) with an extraordinary contact profile (86.5 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, 32.4% 95+ mph EV), while pitching deep into games (six innings or more in 20 of 24 starts). The Diamondbacks have just a 96 wRC+, but with a mere 21.2 K% and 12.0 HR/FB vs RHP. They’ve also injected some exciting young blood into the lineup recently and may be a bit better than their overall numbers. Musgrove is tonight’s fifth best projected pitcher and sixth best DK value (eight on FD).

Brandon Woodruff has allowed multiple home runs more often (three times) than he’s struck out more than five (twice) over his last six starts. He still has a 21.5 K-BB% on the season (16.9% over his last six starts) and neither home runs (10.8 HR/FB), nor barrels (7.7%) have been season long issues, but it’s never really felt like he’s gotten going this season. His 3.54 ERA is slightly above all estimators, ranging as low as a 3.18 DRA. Woodruff is a fastball thrower (sinker & four-seam 60.9% & -5 Run Value comabined) and the Rockies (81 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP) are the sixth worst offense in the league against fastballs (-0.31 wFB/C). In addition, the Rockies have a 46 wRC+ and 26.9 K% over the last week, but Woodruff is one of the few pitchers not dealing with pitcher friendly conditions tonight (weather), on top of having to pitch at Coors. Woodruff still projects just inside the top 10, but as a middle (DK) to bottom (FD) of the board value.

Merrill Kelly’s 2.84 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.09 FIP to a 3.97 SIERA, but beyond his contact profile (34.8% 95+ mph EV) the strikeout rate appears to be evolving as well (26.1% with a 20.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts). This is not a small sample either, as Keely has gone at least seven innings in six of those starts and at least six innings in 16 straight. The Padres have been perfectly average against RHP (101 wRC+, 21.9 K%) and Juan Soto hasn’t done much to change that yet. None the less, Kelly projects as just a middle of the board arm and bottom of the board value, though projections could be slightly under-valuing him here if the strikeout spike is real.

Top of the Board Pitching Analysis (Part I)

Tuesday night’s 12 game slate features six $10K pitchers (three on DraftKings) along with one more exceeding $9K on each site. Most expensively, costing $11.2K on both sites, Gerrit Cole has allowed just two home runs on five barrels (5.9%) over his last five starts, but with just a 26.8 K% with downward trending velocity. This is a small concern, but he’s still completed six innings in 23 of his last 24 starts and has a 25.2 K-BB% with all estimators below his 3.28 ERA on the season. The Twins (112 wRC+, 22.0 K% vs RHP) were that one start though (five home runs). They smash fastballs (0.32 wFB/C). In addition to the tough matchup, weather is going to be another challenge here with Kevin currently forecasting a straight ORANGE for this game with all day rain in New York. Weather will be a theme throughout this slate, though this is the only game that appears to put SPs in danger. Assuming they do play, there’s a cluster atop the board with three pitchers fighting for the top overall projection between Cole and two others. While Cole is the highest upside of the three, conditions could also make him the riskiest. He also projects as the fifth best value on either site.

Costing $11K on FanDuel, but a full $1K less on DraftKings, Framber Valdez generally has higher strikeout totals than you’d expect with a 22.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% because his 67.0 GB% (4.0% Barrels/BBE) helps him erase a lot of his walks and pitch deep into games, but he’s struck out exactly eight in three of his last four starts (26.8 K%) and recorded seventh inning outs in seven straight. Valdez also has 22 straight Quality Starts. His 2.63 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.15 xFIP to a 3.48 DRA, but the Astros have one of the best defenses in the game (18 Runs Prevented) and their .266 BABIP allowed is actually lower than his .269 mark. Currently the third best projected pitcher on either site, though less than two points from the top spot, Valdez is not in any spot against the Rangers (118 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 16.9 HR/FB vs LHP), but it is a weather protected negative run environment with the roof closed and the Rangers can’t homer if they can’t get the ball off the ground. Valdez projects as the second best DK value (fourth best on FD).

With his velocity creeping upwards, Shane Bieber is still below the last couple of years, but has struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. Bieber now has a 20.6 K-BB% on the season and has completed seven innings in five of his last seven, at least six innings in 20 of his last 23. A 3.43 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter run removed from a 3.06 ERA. He’s only allowed 6.9% Barrels/BBE, but with a 90 mph EV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV. Costing within $300 of $10.5K on either site, Bieber is in a nice spot in Kansas City (91 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.7 HR/FB) with potentially pitcher friendly weather and umpiring. He, of course, is the other pitcher in that top group cluster with Cole and Valdez, projecting as the second best FanDuel value (fourth best on DraftKings).

Kyle Wright has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts (eight Quality Starts) and at least seven in five of his last 11. He’s allowed just three runs over his last 26 innings and the strikeout rate is on the rise again too (28% last three starts). Sitting on a comfortable 17.1 K-BB%, estimators ranging from a 3.23 DRA to a 3.82 xERA are a bit above his 2.85 ERA with some regression expected in an 81.3 LOB%, though even if that occurs, this is the best version of Kyle Wright we have seen and he’s in a great spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) with a significant park upgrade. Wright is your fourth best projected arm, right behind that top cluster and the third best projected DK value (sixth best on FD).

The Surprising Stack That Projects a Strong Leverage Rating

We may not have a single offense exceeding a five run team total on a small six game board tonight, but the team topping the slate (Angels 4.92) still projects to be the most popular stack on DraftKings, nearing a 20% Projected Ownership number, though the Astros project to be the most popular FanDuel stack, well ahead of the Angels, but just barely ahead of the Padres. Remember, though, PlateIQ stacking projections are fluid and updated throughout the day. On either site, the Astros project to smash the slate slightly more often than the Angels, despite having the lowest team total of the four offenses reaching four and a half implied runs tonight (4.52). Both teams currently have a Smash projection above 15% with no other stack exceeding 10% currently. The Angels project as a one of the top two value stacks on either site, slightly ahead of the Giants on FanDuel and a bit behind the Tigers on DraftKings.

Information normally posted on the PlateIQ Live Blog, but free today, is that the Angels project as the top rated stack with their top projected Value% and more importantly top projected Smash%, but single digit Own% projection. With just a 12.8 K% and 10.6% Barrels/BBE, Tyler Alexander’s 4.76 ERA aligns well with his 4.77 xFIP, but is below all estimators, including an xERA above five. He’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with batters from that side within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.

The Angels still project a solid Leverage Rating on DraftKings, but the Astros are currently the top rated stack there. Martin Perez is the most expensive FanDuel pitcher tonight, but the Astros have tagged him for seven and five runs over his last five starts and projections believe they stand a good chance to do it again. RHBs have a .293 wOBA and .301 xwOBA against him.

The other stacks that are rated among the top four on either site are the Dodgers, who also face a good, but inconsistent pitcher in Logan Webb, and Diamondbacks, who nobody is really talking about with the lowest team run total on the board against Blake Snell. Snell does have a 20 point separation between his strikeout and walk rates, but is still somewhat volatile and these ratings are looking at smash potential versus ownership projection in order to gain the most leverage on the field. Snell has been just slightly better than average against RHBs this season (.310 wOBA, .298 xwOBA), while Geraldo Perdomo is the only RHB in the projected lineup below a 98 wRC+ or .174 ISO against LHP this year.