DFS Alerts
Risk/Reward Potential as a SP #2 Option
Odorizzi has struggled in difficult matchups so far this season, but he is coming off a solid outing against the Reds last weekend where he allowed just one run in six innings. His upside is also enhanced tonight in a matchup against a free-swinging White Sox team that ranks 9th in the majors in strikeout rate. Odorizzi’s fly ball tendencies can lead to some good luck and bad luck at times, but I’ll gladly take some shots on him in GPP formats on a four game slate.
The Default Top Pitcher of the Night?
David Price is nowhere near the pitcher he once was and doesn’t have overpowering velocity at this stage of his career, and his 2018 game log is downright ugly. However, we have just four games on the main slate tonight, and there isn’t a lot to love for pitching. I’m not buying Sean Manaea long-term and will not pay the premium for him, so here we are with Price. It’s scary, but he does draw a matchup against a free-swinging Rangers squad, and something tells me that the matchup helps Price get going.
Breaking News: Chris Tillman is Terrible
This is not really breaking news, as you all don’t need me to go through Tillman’s stats to show you how terrible he is. The guy has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball for the better part of two seasons, and the Angels have a ton of upside tonight. They will be massively popular, so how do you differentiate your Angels stack in GPPs? How about fading Mike Trout? It’s super risky, but if the Angels score eight runs and Trout goes 1-for-4 with under 10 fantasy points, you are way ahead of the field. Things like that are what can win you GPPs on a four game slate. Give it some thought.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Justin Upton The Sneaky Stack of the Night
With all the attention on the Angels and Red Sox tonight, don’t forget about Oakland. They have a lot of strong right-handed power bats, and they get to face journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc this evening. LeBlanc has been pitching out of the bullpen and has a career strikeout rate well below league average. I wouldn’t expect him to go deep into the game, and Oakland is my favorite sneaky team to target for some big time production on this four game slate. It also helps that some of their better RH bats play at positions that are harder to fill (2B, SS), and that’s a consideration that is often over-looked.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien A Costly -- But Very High Upside -- Team Stack
The awful profile of Chris Tillman will get all the attention tonight, and obviously that makes the Angels a high-upside stack. However, the Red Sox are in an equally good spot against Mike Minor. Minor has allowed a .355 wOBA to RHBs so far this season, his ground ball rate is just 29% against them, and he is allowing hard contact over 40% of the time. That spells trouble against Boston’s dangerous power bats. This stack will cost you, but the Betts/Martinez/Bogaerts combination has a ton of upside if you can find some cheaper pitchers that you like. They are right there with the Angels as the top stack of the night.
One Last Night
Whether you believe in narratives or not, Albert Pujols is two hits away from 3,000 in his career, and after tonight, the Angels go on the road. He draws an excellent matchup against Chris Tillman, and I love his chances to get two hits in the game tonight. The Angels are one of the top stacks on the main slate, as Chris Tillman has a .447 wOBA with a 10.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters since the start of 2017. He also has a 2.43 WHIP against righties in that span, making him one of the top pitchers to attack on this slate.
Strikeout Upside At A Reduced Price
It’s always tough to decide how much value you really need on a four-game slate, but Jaime Barria is a value play with upside. He’s a young pitcher, but he has above average command and a really good changeup. In a small sample size in AAA, he has a high swinging strike rate with an above average strikeout rate. In two starts in the Majors this season, Barria has limited the hard contact and created a lot of soft/weak fly balls. I don’t think he goes more than 85 pitches today, but at this price, I’m totally willing to roll the dice. Only two projected starters for the Orioles have a wOBA over .350 against righties this season, and seven of the nine have strikeout rates over 20%.
Brett Anderson is one of the few low K pitchers on tonight's slate, but has struck out 25 of 78 at AAA
The Seattle Mariners have a 4.55 implied run line that’s fairly close to the top of the board tonight. They are facing one of the few pitchers on this board who doesn’t miss a lot of bats, though he does generate plenty of ground balls when he’s on. Brett Anderson has amazingly struck out 25 of the 78 batters he’s faced at AAA this season with just two walks and no home runs, but has a career 17.4 K% and hasn’t even been that high at the major league level since he last pitched for the A’s in 2013. Siding with an offense you at least expect to make contact makes perfect sense and although the Seattle lineup is not yet confirmed, it’s contents can be speculated on with some confidence. Anderson actually has a reverse platoon split both last season (LHBs .461 wOBA, .439 xwOBA) and for his career (LHBs .336 wOBA), though he has the same K-BB% and generates more weak ground balls against lefties (66.2 GB%, 0.9 Hard-Soft% for his career). Looking at Seattle bats who have been strong against southpaws since last season leads us to all right-handed bats in Nelson Cruz (132 wRC+, .212 ISO), Mitch Haniger (117 wRC+, .227 ISO), Mike Zunino (123 wRC+, .278 ISO) and then Jean Segura (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) as a potential stolen base threat. Kyle Seager (101 wRC+, 176 ISO) has been the only competent left-handed bat against same handed pitching projected for tonight’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino, Brett Anderson
Wednesday night's forecast calls for warm weather and nice hitting conditions
Without the threat of rain anywhere it seems, Kevin is able to go into detail on some favorable hitting conditions in his forecast for Wednesday. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and premium subscribers can find him on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET with more details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time Luis Severino faces the Astros (107 wRC+, 11.3 BB% vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball
Luis Severino is usually a pretty big name on any slate, never mind an eight game one, but his cost is depressed slightly in a trip to Houston and he could be the forgotten man considering all the high upside arms on this board. Severino has been consistent this season, he’s gone seven innings in two straight and has between six and eight strikeouts in every start this year. Houston is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and the Astros have a 3.6 implied run line that’s bottom half of the board. However, the Astros have a 107 wRC+ and 11.3 BB% vs RHP. There may also be an umpiring situation worth knowing about in this game and that’s available to premium and BAT subscribers via LineupHQ. Umpire Ratings and Stolen Base Threat Ratings are just two of the new tools available to premium subscribers, which both can be very valuable tonight on a slate that leans heavily in one direction (pitching).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Brewers have a board high 4.83 implied run line against the struggling Luis Castillo (.377 xwOBA this year)
Luis Castillo has retained a pretty impressive 13.5 SwStr% that’s third best even on tonight’s high upside board. However, he has turned that into just an 18.3 K% this season and has a 5.57 FIP through six starts, allowing at least three runs in each. There’s obviously some regression to come positively to his strikeout rate and 58.1% strand rate, but he’s a firm pass tonight with a .377 xwOBA due to an 89.9 mph aEV and 40% 95+ mph EV. He’s being hit hard and pitches in a very power friendly park. The Brewers currently have the highest implied run line on the board (4.83). While Castillo had no platoon split last year, five of his six HRs this year have been allowed to left-handed hitters, while he’s walked 13.1% of them with a 45.2 Hard% as well. Travis Shaw (132 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Christian Yelich (122 wRC+, .164 ISO) would be the desired batters, though both are below a 30 wRC+ over the last week. It’s actually been a team wide effort for the Brewers, who have a major league low 45 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Luis Castillo The Phillies have a 3.95 implied run line facing a near minimum priced pitcher (Jose Urena)
It’s not often that you’ll see a team with an implied run line below four (Phillies 3.95) against a near min-priced pitcher (Jose Urena $4.1K on DraftKings), but Miami is both a negative run environment and suppresses power, while Urena is coming off of seven innings of one run ball against the Rockies. An inability to turn swings and misses (10.2%) into strikeouts (18.4%) can be frustrating, but he’s up almost three points from last season. While there are not many scenarios where players would consider using Urena unless they’re paying up for deGrom or Strasburg, the Phillies do have a 26.6 K% vs RHP this year. On the other hand, Urena’s xwOBA against LHBs since last season (.382) is 56 points above his actual mark since last season. Though without much power, the Phillies do have three lefties among the first five hitters in tonight’s lineup.
Tonight's Miami lineup has a combined .277 wOBA and .122 ISO vs RHP since 2017
Aaron Nola has the lowest swinging strike rate this year (9.1%) among tonight’s pitchers who have thrown a major league pitch in 2018. He’s still firmly in play against a Miami offense with the lowest Vegas run line on the board (3.05) by a decent margin. He’s only the third or fourth highest priced pitcher against a confirmed lineup that has a combined .277 wOBA, .122 ISO and 24.2 K% vs RHP since last season according to PlateIQ (which now includes conditional formatting for premium subscribers). Though the strikeouts (19.1%) are not where players would want to see it yet, Nola has now gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and has the ground ball rate up to 51.9%, the fourth highest mark on tonight’s slate. His 2.4% Barrels/BBE is lowest among all of today’s pitchers, while his 25.9% 95+ mph EV trails only Jacob deGrom (25.6%) tonight.
Bryce Harper (177 wRC+, .343 ISO vs RHP since 2017) leads off again against Ivan Nova (LHBs .390 xwOBA since 2017)
The Washington Nationals have a 4.7 implied run line tonight that’s near the top of the board against Ivan Nova, who’s 10.0 SwStr% is the third lowest mark on the board this year among tonight’s pitchers. Left-handed batters have a .347 wOBA against him since last season, which extends to a .390 xwOBA with a 34.8 Hard% and 42.7 GB%. Bryce Harper (177 wRC+, .343 ISO vs RHP since 2017) homered last night and leads off again because nobody else in this lineup can consistently get on base. He may be the most popular bat on a slate where price should not be a concern. Matt Adams (138 wRC+, .275 ISO) has been destroying baseballs too (357 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Ivan Nova, Matt Adams Cincinnati's 4.65 implied run line against Wade Miley is near the top of the board
Wade Miley makes his Milwaukee debut against a Cincinnati offense with a 4.65 implied run line that’s pretty close to the top of the board on a massively high upside pitching slate. Miley struck out 14 of the 46 AAA batters he’s faced this season, walking two, while allowing three home runs. While he had a 70 point split between right-handed and left-handed batters by wOBA, xwOBA closes the gap to 18 points in the wrong direction for him, though he did keep same-handed batters on the ground for 59.2% of the contact they made. That shouldn’t take Joey Votto (142 wRC+, .399 xwOBA, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) off the board for anyone. He has a 267 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week, joining Eugenio Suarez (138 wRC+, .232 ISO, 44.9 Hard%) and Alex Blandino as batters with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week in this lineup. Votto and Suarez ($3.6K FanDuel) are the only batters in this lineup above $3.7K on either site. The Reds should be an easy stack no matter who players wish to put in their pitcher slots.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Alex Blandino, Wade Miley