DFS Alerts
Poor San Diego lefty Eric Lauer must make his debut at Coors tonight (Rockies 5.74 implied run line)
Eric Lauer makes his major league debut in Coors tonight. The 22 year-old lefty does not arrive with any prospect hype and just a 40 Future Value rating slapped on his Fangraphs player profile page, but does have an above average strikeout rate with acceptable control at every level he’s pitched at in the minors. An additional problem is that only 18 of those innings have come at AAA with only 55 before that at AA last season. A board topping 5.74 implied run line suggests he’s like to be over-whelmed by a predominantly right-handed Colorado lineup at Coors, although there’s something to be said for being almost a complete unknown to the opposing team. For the home team, Chris Iannetta (135 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP since last season) sees a disappointing lineup drop to fifth in the order as the most affordable prominent bat in the order. Charlie Blackmon hits lefties well (137 wRC+, .237 ISO), but may be difficult to fit with a price tag well above $5K without the platoon advantage after being shut out in a more promising spot last night. Nolan Arenado (222 wRC+, .410 ISO), Trevor Story (150 wRC+, .345 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (144 wRC+, .214 ISO) will and should be a part of many lineups tonight. Noel Cuevas makes his debut for the Rockies with minor league numbers suggesting he’s just a guy, but some consideration needs to be paid when a Coors bat costs just $2.5K on either site even if he is batting eighth.
Other tagged players: Chris Iannetta, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Noel Cuevas
Ian Kennedy continues to allow a lot of hard contact (91.4 mph aEV), but with a fewer missed bats (7.5 SwStr%)
Ian Kennedy has been able to survive with a lot of hard contact in the air over the last few seasons with a great outfield defense in a power suppressing park. Of some concern this year is a lower SwStr rate (7.5%) hidden in a 22 K% with a .382 xwOBA some 85 points above his actual mark with a 91.4 mph aEV and 12.7% Barrels/BBE. While batters from either side of the plate have hit him well since last season (actual 330+ wOBA, .360+ xwOBA), LHBs have a hard contact rate of 46.2% with just a 30.6% GB rate. It’s with great sorrow that we then find Eric Thames (142 wRC+, .305 ISO, 44.2 Hard%) batting sixth with the DH added to the lineup, though Travis Shaw (137 wRC+, .257 ISO, 39.5 Hard%) stays in his customary third spot for $700 less on DraftKings. Christian Yelich (126 wRC+, .171 ISO, 39.1 Hard%) has an increased power outlook against an extreme fly ball pitcher. Price tags for most of the relevant bats here are fairly high on either site though. The Brewers have a 4.78 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Christian Yelich, Ian Kennedy Tuesday's TB-BAL game postponed due to rain
The matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night has been postponed due to forecasted rain throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that tonight’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, May 12 as part of a doubleheader, though the respective start times have yet to be confirmed. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on tonight’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Marc Topkin via Twitter
Oakland A's have the highest implied run line outside Coors against HR prone Cole Hamels (seven in five starts)
The Oakland A’s are the only team outside Coors with an implied run line above five (5.08) in their matchup in Texas against Cole Hamels. Hamels is an infuriating pitcher who can walk the park and allow a bunch of home runs or exhibit good enough control and strike out double digit batters (as he did in Oakland in his second start). However, he’s allowed seven HRs in five starts this year, four in his two starts in Texas. The A’s bring with them a 114 wRC+ (24.7 Hard-Soft%) against LHP and 147 wRC+ (37.5 Hard-Soft%) over the last seven days to this substantial park upgrade. They have a 133 wRC+ and 19.4 HR/FB on the road this year. Hamels has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE, not the highest mark on the slate, but bad enough for a .364 xwOBA this season. Split it up and RHBs have a .347 xwOBA and 39 Hard% against him since last season. The A’s load up the lineup with eight right-handed batters and while none of them have a wRC+ above 120 against southpaws since last season,there are a number of solid to strong options in this spot led by Khris Davis (116 wRC+, .245 ISO, 48 Hard%). Jed Lowrie (117 wRC+, .157 ISO) is becoming more expensive, but has a 223 wRC+ and 65.2 Hard% over the last week. Chad Pinder (118 wRC+, .183 ISO) is the value play at $3.3K on DraftKings, but just $100 above minimum on FanDuel. Marcus Semien has been just an average bat by results (103 wRC+, .158 ISO) against southpaws since the start of last season, but with a 43% hard contact rate. In fact, each of the first six batters in the lineup have a hard hit rate above 35% against LHP over that span.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Marcus Semien, Cole Hamels Joey Gallo has a 46.1 Hard% and 55.1% fly ball rate against RHP since last season, costs less than $4K tonight
Andrew Triggs has missed enough bats with a high ground ball rate in the past, often making him a favorite of some sharp DFS mind. Although his ERA is well above his estimators, even those are poor this year and he’s failed to surpass 22 batters faced in any start. His swinging strike rate is down (8.4%), which makes this a dangerous setting for him. The Rangers aren’t a great offense, but they hit the ball hard (25 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He has the highest Z-Contact% on the board too (93.3%). He’s generated a 48.6 GB% against LHBs since last season with an xwOBA 53 points above his actual .302 mark and many of you already know where this is leading. Joey Gallo (121 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP since last season) adds a 46.1 Hard% and 55.1 FB% to his numbers with the platoon advantage. He has a 150 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $4K on either site for an offense with the third highest implied run line (4.92) tonight. Shin-soo Choo (106 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (100 wRC+, .183 ISO) are both in the mid-$3K price range in a spot where the Rangers may be able to run if the choose on a Triggs/Lucroy combination (see our new Stolen Base Threat Ratings – premium subscribers – for more).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Andrew Triggs, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo PlateIQ conditional formatting the newest offering for premium subscribers
The addition of new tools and incredible improvements to existing ones keep coming for premium subscribers. Conditional formatting for PlateIQ is the newest of these. Players can now see color coding, making the plethora of information this amazing tool offers easier to navigate. Eyes are quickly drawn to green or red numbers signifying potential advantages. This enhancement on the heels of Stolen Base Threat Ratings and Umpire Ratings (available in LineupHQ to both premium and BAT subscribers) made available recently, along with Projected Ownership (available on it’s own and via LineupHQ), a favorite from last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ J.A. Happ is missing more bats, while his opponent, Rick Porcello, has yet to allow a home run
J.A. Happ vs Rick Porcello is a fascinating matchup featuring two pitchers with differing profiles from last season. Happ has increased his strikeout rate to 32% (14.3 SwStr%), where it’s his fastball that’s getting the swings and misses. He’s frequently elevating the pitch, but leaving it in the strike zone, which has a two-fold effect. First, the strikeouts: he has a 79.7 Z-Contact%, which is exceptional, but a 43.2 Z-O-Swing% meaning that a lot of those swings are coming from pitches in the zone, leading to the second part. He’s allowed a HR in every start. His 91.9 mph aEV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE are among the worst on the board with 42.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. The Red Sox have a team 65 wRC+ against LHP after being no-hit by Manaea over the weekend, but players know this is a dangerous, predominantly right-handed, contact oriented lineup. While there may still be some merit towards Happ’s new found upside at a cost below $9K here, there’s a great chance someone leaves the yard for Boston tonight with the most obvious choices being either Mr. Betts (142 wRC+ & .229 ISO vs LHP since last season, 299 wRC+ & 55.6 Hard% over the last week) or Mr. Martinez (222 wRC+ & .458 ISO vs LHP, 201 wRC+ & 58.3 Hard% over the last week). Hanley Ramirez (69 wRC+, .189 ISO) is the only other right-handed batter in the lineup above a .150 ISO against southpaws since last season. Rafael Devers has strong numbers against lefties (163 wRC+, .194 ISO), but with a .512 BABIP and xwOBA (.328) some 90 points below actual, while LHBs have a .225 wOBA against Happ since last season. On the other side of this matchup, Rick Porcello has returned to his sinker (along with a slider and change). While retaining a slightly above league average strikeout rate, he hasn’t allowed a single HR yet this year with a 10 point jump in his ground ball rate back to his career rate just below 50%. One of the worst contact managers last season, his .219 xwOBA is best on the slate due to an 85.5 mph aEV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE and 21.6% 95+ mph EV. He costs around $9K and faces a Toronto lineup with some swing and miss (24.7 K% vs RHP), but who have been getting along fine without their top bat (110 wRC+, 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP). With just a single walk this season as well, Porcello has a 20+ K-BB% against batters from either site, keeping RHBs grounded on 57.5% of batted balls and limiting hard contact from LHBs too (5.8 Hard-Soft%). The Toronto lineup has not yet been confirmed. Both teams in this affair have implied run lines between four and four and a half.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers Seven pitchers exceed a 25 K% on the main slate, though most carry significant risk
It’s not that this slate is lacking high upside arms. Seven pitchers on the main slate exceed a 25% strikeout rate with five of those above 30%. The problem is that a lot of those pitchers are high risk, due either to difficult matchups or other issues of their own making. Consider Robbie Ray (33%), facing a Philadelphia team with more walks than strikeouts against LHP so far. Also consider that Kevin’s forecast potentially takes both starters in this game (and two or our seven) off the board, along with Jake Faria (10+ SwStr% each of last two starts) in a high upside spot in Baltimore. A shame because Vince Velasquez (6 IP – 1 BB – 6+ Ks in three straight starts) may have been one of the top bargains on the board at $7K. Cole Hamels (27 K%) struck out 11 A’s last time he faced them, but has allowed two HRs in each of his two home starts. Charlie Morton (33.3 K%) might be the top overall arm on the board. He faces the Angels, who have a league worst team 49 wRC+ over the last week, but also the fourth lowest strikeout rate against RHP this season (18.5%). Opposing him is Shohei Ohtani (33.3%), who faces the Astros tonight and has really only shown his stuff against the A’s, leaving his last start against the Red Sox with a blister issue. He’s been well enough to hit since then and pitches in a negative run environment against a Houston offense that’s been more good than great against RHP so far (106 wRC+, 22.8 K%). He certainly has the potential to exceed a cost below $10K. Kenta Maeda (34.8 K%) has the prime matchup on the slate, hosting the Marlins (68 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs RHP). He also threw 106 pitches in his last start. It’s unclear whether that’s good or bad news for this start immediately following though. It also failed to get him through six innings, though he did strike out 10 for the second time in three starts.
Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Vince Velasquez, Jacob Faria, Robbie Ray, Shohei Ohtani, Kenta Maeda Keep Hammering Away
Joey Gallo is one of my favorite hitters to target in DFS, even in cash games. He has so much power that he tends to pay off his salary more often than not. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Andrew Triggs, who has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career. Gallo owns a massive .332 ISO and a 46% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching and gets to face Triggs at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Time to Eat a Big Bowl of Chalk
The Rockies are going to be popular tonight and rightly so. They are playing at home (in case you didn’t know, Coors Field is a decent hitter’s park) and are facing Eric Lauer, who is a left-handed pitcher that is making his major league debut. The Padres picked an awful time to call Lauer up, as this one might sting for quite some time. Load up on the Rockies’ hitters in both cash games and tournaments and don’t be afraid to include Charlie Blackmon in your stacks, as he owns a .357 xwOBA against lefties.
Top Projected Pitcher on the Mound
Charlie Morton has been my go-to pitcher in DFS over the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he is finally being priced where he should be. For the longest time, he was routinely underpriced and under-owned, which allowed us to make a lot of money by targeting him in all formats. He’s now the most expensive pitcher of the slate, even though he’s facing a talented Angels’ offense. While the matchup isn’t ideal, it’s hard to ignore Morton’s form — 2.33 SIERA, 33% strikeout rate, and a 60% ground ball rate this season.
Best Point Per Dollar Pitcher
Kenta Maeda is an easy play tonight. It’s such an obvious play that he’s going to end up being the highest owned pitcher of the slate. In three starts this season, he has a 2.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He’s pitching at home in a ballpark that favors pitchers and he squares off against a Marlins’ offense that can’t get anything going at the plate. The projected lineup for Miami has a .292 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. Dollar for dollar, Maeda is the best play at pitcher.
Strong Skills, Great Matchup
In two of his three starts this season, Maeda has posted 10 strikeouts, showing that there’s plenty of upside here. He’s also thrown 106 and 90 pitches in those starts, so the typical pitch count concerns seem to be lowered at this point. His skills against right-handed batters are elite with a career 31.2% K rate, 4.9% walks and 27% hard hits. The Marlins just don’t have enough left-handed power to cause him too much trouble, and this is a very fair price point in all formats on DK/FDRFT.
Boring Chalk
As a content provider, it is seriously boring to write up the obvious stacks of the night, but sometimes it just needs to be done. The Rockies once again enter a slate with far and away the highest implied run total on the board (6.5) and are tremendous plays against the rookie lefty Eric Lauer. There’s no doubt that the Rockies are the best stack of the night and will be heavily owned. Blackmon may come at a bit of a discount ownership due to an 0-fer Monday night and a high priced tag. He’s my favorite pure “GPP” option of the Rockies while guys like Iannetta, LeMahieu, Arenado and Story are just strong plays in all formats.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, Ian Desmond
Back in Arlington
We’re back in Arlington on Tuesday night and once again targeting the A’s as a team to stack. The A’s recorded 14 hits Monday and should run out a similar lineup Tuesday night as they get a matchup with another southpaw in Cole Hamels. Hamels is a positive regression candidate (he’s pitching better than his ERA indicates) but he has already given up seven home runs in 28.1 IP to start the year. Semien hit the A’s only HR last night but there is more power in this lineup (Davis, Chapman) that could exploit this matchup.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman