DFS Alerts
Not Enough Of A Price Bump
As I’m building FanDuel lineups today, it becomes apparent that the Cubs in Coors Field are underpriced as compared to the rest of the top tier offenses. It’s not that Jon Gray is a pitcher to pick on, but a player with the plate skills of Anthony Rizzo is perfectly suited to take advantage of the Coors Field BABIP bump. He should be able to put the ball in play and with his lineup spot, should see plenty of RBI and run scoring opportunities.
One Time Mistake
Michael Wacha is a guy that I’ll roster about one time a year and inevitably wonder why in the world I did so. Despite an underwhelming resume, betting markets love Wacha and he’s almost always a guy that will pop in terms of win probability and strikeout props. Friday is no different as the Cardinals opened as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-200) and the Cincinnati Red’s implied run total is already trending down (3.7 to 3.5). While I take all of that with a grain of salt, it’s undeniable that Wacha has a favorable setup on Friday night. I prefer a cheaper Lynn if deciding between the two on DraftKings. Wacha is about as low as I would go on FanDuel and is a strong candidate to roster with your Coors stacks.
Value at the Trop
It’s only his third start of the year but by now Lynn’s issues are engrained in our minds – he struggles mightily versus left handed hitters (.344 wOBA, 17.7 K%, 12.7 BB%) and is strong versus right handed hitters (.276 wOBA, 26.3 K%, 5.9 BB%). Unfortunately for Lynn it appears that Brad Miller will return to the Rays lineup Friday night, which will likely lead to five left handed bats for Tampa Bay. That’s not ideal for Lynn but it’s notable that the Trop is a very favorable pitchers park and plays poorly for left handed hitters, which should help negate some of Lynn’s lefty struggles. Keep a close eye on lineups as they come out, as a lineup with fewer left handed hitters would be a solid boost for Lynn’s value. There’s no need to wander from the top tier pitching options in cash games but Lynn projects as the top pt/$ option on DraftKings and makes a reasonable SP2.
Cheap OBP
Arlington Park represents one of the better offensive environments on Friday night as the Mariners travel to Texas to take on the Rangers. Mike Minor was excellent as a reliever for the Royals last year but it’s been a while since he’s shown any sort of consistency as a starting pitcher – his one strong start this year is sandwiched between a poor outing and another outing where he only lasted 4.2 innings. Jean Segura should continue to hit second for the Mariners who have a healthy 4.5 implied run total at the time of this writing. Segura isn’t going to give you a whole lot of power but he has shown decent on base skills versus left handed pitching over the last couple of years, and most importantly, he’s cheap. You may even get a stolen base out of Segura if it’s your lucky night.
Opportunity > Skill
The year is 2018 and somehow Daniel Descalso is hitting fifth in the order of a Major League team. Don’t get it twisted – Descalso is not a good offensive player. He sports a career .296 wOBA, a .121 ISO and really has no business batting in a run producing spot for a Big League lineup. But here’s the thing – he does. This play is much more about opportunity than Descalso’s skill-set. His multi-positional eligibility (2B/3B) helps free up some different routes to roster construction and he should be a staple of many double high priced SP lineups.
Pricing Lag
J.T. Realmuto recently came off the DL and as a result his price is lagging behind what it should be. Realmuto wasted no time getting to work as he hit a HR and put up 25 DK points in his season debut against the Yankees on Tuesday – Friday will be Realmuto’s third game back. Realmuto is above average offensively relative to his position and he’s one of the few catchers in the league that actually bats at a good spot in the order (fifth). In addition, Realmuto has a plus-matchup against Jhoulys Chacin in hitter friendly Miller Park. He stands out as a top value play on a night with a lot of high priced pitching options.
Not The King Anymore
Seattle’s Felix Hernandez just continues to lose effectiveness. His strikeouts fell to 17.7% against lefties in 2017 and in the early going this year, he has not been able to control hard contact. On the other hand, Shin-Soo Choo appears to be picking up steam as he ages, maintaining his contact skills while his hard hit rate has stayed above 26% since 2016. He is not appropriately priced for this matchup and his skills in this environment.
Easiest Exposure To This Game
There is some possibility of Parra beginning his suspension tonight, so keep an eye on the lineups, but assuming he plays, this is the most affordable way to get exposure to the Coors Field game tonight. Kyle Hendricks is a fine pitcher but is going to struggle getting past the lefties at this altitude. Parra is once again making a ton of contact against right-handed pitching and in this BABIP-boosting environment, he is too cheap and an easy fit in cash games on all sites, and a key piece of Rockies stacks in GPP’s.
Use This Savings To Pay Up Elsewhere
On this pitching heavy slate, finding a few cheap bats with upside is a key in both cash games and tournaments. Justin Bour was an underrated hitter in 2017 with a massive 42% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching giving him a .384 wOBA and .252 ISO. He has started out a little slower this season, but is still striking out just 17.3% against righties and already has four home runs on his ledger. Jhoulys Chacin has been awful this season, and was a disaster against lefties in 2017 as well, with a 16.1% K rate, 12.1% walks and no ability to control batted balls. He gets a huge ballpark boost, a favorable splits matchup and a low salary.
Ace Upside At A Second Tier Price
I want to do everything possible to get up to Verlander/Scherzer/Kershaw tonight, but Chris Archer does have similar strikeout upside at a significant savings. While it’s been a bit of a rocky start, we have a long track record of dominance at home from Archer. Over the past three seasons in Tampa, he has posted K rates of 32.7%, 29.6% and 33%. His salary has taken way too big of a hit for his upside based on a couple bad starts.
Aces, Aces Everywhere
There is virtually no separation between three studs at the top tonight with Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. As much as possible, I want all my lineup to contain 1-2 of these aces. While it’s close to a three-sided coin toss, the matchup against the White Sox favors Verlander tonight just enough to push him ahead. He has 34 strikeouts with just 5 walks this season and faces a White Sox that is 3rd worst in the league with a 26.2% K rate so far this season and projects to remain near the top.
A Must-See Battle of Aces
Wow. There’s nothing quite like a fun west coast battle between Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. This game will undoubtedly be a fun one, and I will likely sprinkle in some ownership of both pitchers as part of my GPP pool this evening. However, if forced to choose, I’ll give a slight edge to Kershaw since he is pitching at home and will have the splits advantage over Washington’s most dangerous hitter in Bryce Harper. Obviously, both guys have immense upside and it would be no surprise if Scherzer went out and dominated as well. Sit back, relax, and enjoy this classic pitchers’ duel.
Attacking a Team That Has Lost Its Way
The Reds are 3-15 and have no direction right now. They fired their manager on Thursday. Brandon Finnegan might be one of the most talented pitchers the team has, but he’s clearly not ready yet. He sat out almost all of 2017 due to injury, and he’s still showing plenty of rust to start the new year. These same Cardinals tagged him for five runs in just over four innings last weekend, and Finnegan also walked four guys in that game. If the control issues persist, there’s definitely upside in a Cardinals stack here, especially since the Cincinnati bullpen is pretty poor outside of their closer. While I rarely recommend stacking the Cardinals in an effort to appear un-biased, I do like them tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina A Dirt Cheap Risk/Reward GPP Stack
This one isn’t for the faint of heart, but the Rays’ left-handed bats are in play as a potential mini-stack on this Friday night. They are all very cheap on every site, so that’s a primary benefit. There are quite a few ace pitchers on the mound this evening, so taking these Rays’ bats will help you spend up on the mound. They also draw a solid matchup against Lance Lynn, who has always had extreme splits and struggled against left-handed hitters. Lynn had a 14% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate against LHBs a year ago while allowing them to post a .349 wOBA, and those numbers have been even worse to start 2018. There are worse ways to save money tonight.
Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Mallex Smith A High Upside Friday Night Stack
As of now, it looks like Lucas Giolito will get the start for the White Sox tonight after James Shields worked out of the bullpen on Wednesday in that marathon game against Oakland. However, it probably doesn’t matter who starts. Shields is a home run magnet, allowing long balls like they are on clearance at your local department store. Giolito currently sports a 7.25 xFIP with 18 walks and 12 strikeouts in three starts. Yikes. Neither pitcher should be a safe bet to slow down the Astros, who finally got the offense rolling on Thursday. All the power bats are in play here as a team stack.
Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa