DFS Alerts

Zack Greinke continues to miss bats (15.7 SwStr%), but further velocity loss has led to hard contact (16.3% Barrels/BBE)

Zack Greinke continues to miss bats at an elite rate (29.2 K%, 15.7 SwStr%), but has maxed out at 92 pitches in three starts and is being hit hard as his velocity continues to decline. His 16.3% Barrels//BBE is easily the highest on the board. His strikeout potential has to be strongly considered on this lackluster board, but players can consider opposing him as well. It’s possible for exposure to both sides of this matchup to pay off. Greinke doesn’t have much of a split, but Brandon Belt (135 wRC+, .408 xwOBA, .255 ISO, 41.4 Hard%, 52.6 FB% vs RHP since 2017) shines outside of San Francisco and is reasonably priced tonight. This lineup has not yet been confirmed.

Ty Blach has just a 4.9 SwStr% and must face the lefty mashing Paul Goldschmidt (.448 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017)

Ty Blach is one of many contact managers on tonight’s board, but he misses very few bats (4.9 SwStr%) and is a pitcher players can attack with right-handed batters in the right park. Arizona, humidor or not, would seem such a park. Right-handed batters have a .352 wOBA (.350 xwOBA) against him since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (164 wRC+, .448 xwOBA, .320 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP since 2017) may be the top bat on the board. Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been a surprisingly potent lefty-masher. He’s cheap too, but xwOBA is concerned, dropping 102 points from his actual wOBA against southpaws. Deven Marrero (118 wRC+, .250 ISO) costs $2.6K or less with his xwOBA in line with actual stats.

Nick Tropeano is cheap and can miss bats, but the Red Sox have just a 16.2 K% vs RHP

Ideally, Nick Tropeano would be a low cost, high upside arm. He struck out seven of 16 AAA batters in a rehab start and then six of 26 Royals in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. His 21.2 K% and 11.6 SwStr% through 134 career innings is a lot better than you’ll usually see for less than $6.5K on either site. Unfortunately, the Red Sox are a different animal than the Royals. They don’t strike out (16.2% vs RHP) and hit the ball with authority (21.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Tropeano is a fly ball pitcher, who did allow 14 HRs in 68.1 innings in 2016. The Red Sox have a modest implied run line at 4.31. J.D. Martinez (145 wRC+, .419 xwOBA, .344 ISO, 50 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) is the standout. A more expensive Mookie Betts (112 wRC+, .204 ISO) is on fire (254 wRC+ last seven days). Mitch Moreland (107 wRC+, .392 xwOBA, .219 ISO) is the value play.

Thursday night's forecast is more about wind than rain

Without a significant weather concern on the board, Kevin’s forecast for Thursday night is more about potentially impactful winds than rain. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 to see which players may be most affected.

The Angels still have a formidable 115 wRC+ vs LHP with an 18.3 K%, 11.2 BB%, 12.5 HR/FB and 21.1 Hard-Soft%, but tough Boston pitching has slowed them down the last couple of nights and Eduardo Rodriguez could give them similar issues tonight. He’s struck out 15 of 42 batters faced this season (12.8 SwStr%) with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% and has a bit of reverse platoon split to counter a predominantly right-handed lineup. Right-handed batters have just a .311 wOBA against him since last season and perhaps getting out of Boston will help him as the fly ball oriented lefty has a park neutral .303 xwOBA and transitions to a more fly ball friendly park in Anaheim. His biggest challenge will be at the top of the order where the Angels start off with three lefty-mashing batters in Ian Kinsler (121 wRC+, .246 ISO, 43.5 Hard%, 50 FB% vs LHP since 2017), Mike Trout (159 wRC+, .226 ISO), and Justin Upton (192 wRC+, .350 ISO, 44.3 Hard%). All exceed a .376 xwOBA against southpaws as well. All three also cost at least $4K on either site with the lone exception being Kinsler’s $3.7K price tag on FanDuel. Zack Cozart (147 wRC+, .264 ISO) has shown similar prowess with a similar price tag, but a slightly lower xwOBA (.352) after doing a lot of that damage in Cincinnati last year. The low strikeout rate for the Angels should have some impact on Rodriguez’s upside, but he still should not be ignored at a reasonable cost (around $7K on either site) on a five game slate without a clear Ace on the board.

The Brewers have the highest implied run line on the board (5.23) against Dillon Peters (.398 xwOBA)

The Milwaukee Brewers (5.23) are the only offense Vegas projects above five runs tonight. While Dillon Peters has completed six innings with two runs or less in two of his three starts, he was tagged for nine runs in between, while failing to strike out more than three batters in any start this year. An 8.4 SwStr% suggests some potential improvement there, perhaps closer to his 19.4 K% in 31.1 major league innings last year, but his hard hit rate was actually lowest (30.8%) in his worst start. His .398 xwOBA, 93.1 mph aEV, and 53.8% 95+ mph EV are all easily worst on the board tonight. Peters still has a hard hit rate below 30% against batters from either side of the plate in 46 career innings (LHBs have a 63.9 GB%), though a double digit walk rate allows batters from either side an xwOBA above .350 in his short career. The amazing thing is that Milwaukee bats are fairly cheap tonight, allowing for easy stacks. Domingo Santana (113 wRC+, .197 ISO, 44.3 Hard% vs LHP since 2017) costs $3K or less on either site with Jesus Aguilar (140 wRC+, .223 ISO, 59.3 Hard%) in the same range. While lower end of the lineup batters are not usually recommended, a cheap power hitting catcher on a short slate is an acceptable exception. Jett Bandy (151 wRC+, .258 ISO) will not be hitting eighth much longer should he continue lefty-mashing like this, but beware that his xwOBA (.326) suggests some decline. In fact, his hard hit rate (26.1%) is lowest in the lineup against LHP since last season.

Left-handed batters have a career .378 wOBA against Matt Wisler

The Braves have finally confirmed Matt Wisler as tonight’s starter. He has had two fantastic starts in AAA (12 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 11 K – 43 BF), but has been torched by left-handed batters in his major league career (.378 wOBA, 0.5 K-BB%). The strikeouts and walks are enough for a 70 point wOBA disparity in his splits with the batted ball distribution being fairly even with a ground ball rate and hard hit rate in the mid-30% range to batters from either side of the plate. Michael Conforto (161 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Jay Bruce (125 wRC+, .262 ISO) are the standard plays. The latter costing less than $3K on FanDuel, but owning a scary -32 wRC+ (18.2 Hard%) over the last week, and potentially still dealing with a foot issue that sidelined him two games last week. Yoenis Cespedes (132 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Todd Frazier (111 wRC+, 180 ISO) are certainly playable as part of stacks. The newest Met has a lineup leading 270 wRC+ and 54.6 Hard% over the last week. The Mets have a 4.57 implied run line that’s third best on the slate tonight.

Salary Saver With Big Power

We lost a core play with Ryan Braun out of the lineup again tonight, but on FanDuel, we can still save money in the outfield. The Braves are rolling out Matt Wisler, who has shown no strikeout ability whatsoever to left-handed batters in addition to fly ball tendency. Bruce has yet to heat up this season, but it’s kept his price at a very nice level for his long term track record of power upside.

Ozzie Albies (205 wRC+ last seven days) would seem a strong play against Matt Harvey (LHBs .421 wOBA since 2017)

The big news would seem to be Freddie Freeman’s (161 wRC+, .432 xwOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2017) presence in the lineup tonight after it was feared he had suffered another major hand injury after a HBP last night. It’s difficult to decide what to do with that. Perhaps a look at his projected ownership later (available to premium subscribers via the Projected Ownership page or LineupHQ) will better inform the thought process for players. If it looks as if there is some hesitancy due to potential effects, higher exposure may be worth the risk. The opposite may also be true if ownership rates project to be normally high. Matt Harvey has not excelled against RHBs since last season (.335 wOBA, 52.6 GB%), but has really been lit up by LHBs (.421 wOBA, .418 xwOBA, 37.1 Hard%, 31.9 GB%) and that has continued to be true through a few starts in 2018. He’s gone exactly five innings in each start (four ERs in each of the last two) with a reasonable 19.4 K% (8.7 SwStr%) and 3.81 SIERA, but doesn’t really seem to be fooling anybody (46.2 Z-O-Swing%) and continues to get hit hard (.392 xwOBA, 89 mph aEV). The Braves don’t have enough RHBs to make this work despite the low cost on DraftKings ($6.3K). The confirmed lineup has just a 17.7 K% vs RHP since last season (PlateIQ). Harvey has been frequently throwing his fastball and slider against batters from either side of the plate this season, mixing in 15% changeups to lefties. Not only has Freeman hit all of those pitches well, but so has Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP) according to PlateIQ. Albies also has a lineup leading 205 wRC+ (44.4 Hard%) over the last week. His price is climbing, but he also adds a speed dimension against a combination that can be liberally run on. Preston Tucker (163 wRC+, .275 ISO, 46.7 Hard%) also seems like a low cost flyer worth taking ($2.8K DK) with Kevin forecasting a 15 mph sustained wind out towards right.

Spend Up For Multiple Bats

With Ryan Braun missing another game, I’m going to try and spend up at one more spot on DK/FDRFT, in addition to first base. The top end of the outfield pool is loaded, but Mookie Betts is the guys with the best all around skill set to count on. He almost never strikes out, and has been hitting the ball a ton this season with a 46% hard hit rate. He gives you power, speed and average from the top of a high scoring offense. He is a strong play in all formats tonight.

Chase Anderson (85.4 mph aEV) has similar upside to Jameson Taillon at a cheaper price

Chase Anderson has completed six innings with two runs or less in three of his four starts with a league average strikeout rate (20.2%), but a swinging strike rate below 9% in each of his last three starts. Fewer sinkers and cutters, he continues to pitch up in the zone, though the velocity has dipped back from his increase last year. He continues to generate popups rather than whiffs though. A 35 GB% and 21.4 IFFB% help shape a .193 BABIP that’s still unsustainable, but may remain lower than average. His 85.4 mph aEV is lowest on the board. That matchup would seem to have tremendous upside. The Marlins have a 71 wRC+ and 25 K% with just a 4.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this season. Consider they also have just a 5.6 HR/FB on the road and it’s not just the park that’s limiting their power. PlateIQ shows just a 21.1 K% vs RHP for this particular lineup since the start of last season, but Anderson would seem to profile similarly to Taillon at a better cost tonight. Considering the humidor in Arizona, there’s a chance that the dome in Milwaukee could be the most hitter friendly environment in play today, but it’s really not much worse than a neutral run scoring environment. Anderson still has a bit of a reverse split, but he has been better than average by both xwOBA and wOBA against batters from either side since the start of last season (.302 or less). The Marlins (3.77 implied runs) have one real threat and he’s left-handed, but Justin Bour (140 wRC+, .411 xwOBA, .255 ISO, 40.6 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) is cheap enough on DraftKings ($3K) that he may not be completely off the board in a favorable park against a fly ball pitcher is the salary savings are needed. He has a 238 wRC+ and 46.2 Hard% over the last week. The only other batter in the lineup boasting a wRC+ above 70 over the last week is Miguel Rojas (108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), who costs less than $3K on either site, but is hardly a play worth recommending beyond his lineup spot and price point.

Jameson Taillon is an excellent contact manager, but with an extremely high price that's difficult to justify

Jameson Taillon is the most expensive pitcher on the board and it’s difficult to understand why, aside from Philadelphia having the lowest implied run line on the board (3.44) and Kevin projecting some fairly strong winds blowing in from left-field (15-20 mph). Taillon has a 0.89 ERA and 24 K% over three starts, but both are a fluke. He struck out just two Marlins in his last start and has not eclipsed a 6.5 SwStr% in either of his last two starts. He has a .160 BABIP and 95.6 LOB% without a history of piling up strikeouts. The Phillies (26.9 K% vs RHP) may have to provide a lot of the upside here. However, a look at PlateIQ shows us that the actual strikeout rate for the confirmed lineup is a bit lower at 23.5% vs RHP since the start of last season. What Taillon has done in the past and continues to do is managing contact well (58.8 GB%, .210 xwOBA, 21.6% 95+ mph EV all best on the board among those with more than two starts). Normally, this is not a profile players like paying up for, but it’s not unreasonable on such a small slate if his price tag is likely to keep ownership rate low. He’s unlikely to get hit hard, but there are still likely cheaper pitchers with more upside. While LHBs have had just slightly more actual success against Taillon since last season, xwOBA suggests a much largers split (.336 LHBs, .266 RHBs). Rhys Hoskins (166 wRC+, .410 xwOBA, .306 ISO career vs RHP) seems to be in the rare spot where he may not be worth paying up for. Nick Williams (113 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP career) continues to be extremely cheap and has a higher hard hit rate than any other batter in the lineup over the last week (55.6%). A pitcher with this contact profile is really not one players should be looking to attack tonight though. Francisco Cervelli can be run on, but Taillon isn’t going to walk many.

Jake Arrieta has generated lots of ground balls, few swings and misses for the Phillies so far

Jake Arrieta takes the mound for the third time for the Phillies in a game with the two lowest implied run lines on the board. He’s generated a swinging strike rate below 7% in each of his starts, striking out just one of 27 Rays last time out, his saving grace a 67.6 GB% and 85.8 mph aEV so far. It’s not that he’s not fooling anybody. His 19.1 Z-O-Swing% is fantastic and easily best on the board tonight. He’s just not getting complete swings and misses. Kevin projects the strongest winds on the slate in this game, blowing in from left 15-20 mph consistently, which could be a bit of a boost to the pitcher here. Arrieta’s splits have been fairly pronounced recently. Left-handed batters have had much more success (.357 wOBA, .334 xwOBA since last season). Pittsburgh bats are a bit more expensive than expected without an extremely strong left-hander in the bunch. Leadoff man Adam Frazier (98 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP since last season) is one of the more affordable Pirates ($2.1K on FanDuel). Colin Moran (118 wRC+, .404 xwOBA) might be more attractive with a better lineup spot. Another concern with Arrieta’s upside is that the confirmed lineup for the Pirates has just a 16.6 K% (8.6 BB%) against RHP since the start of 2017. It’s a small enough slate where Arrieta still merits some consideration at a reasonable cost ($7.6K on DK), but may not be as attractive a spot as Vegas might have you believe.

Matt Wisler confirmed as Atlanta Braves starter Thursday

The Atlanta Braves officially recalled right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler from their Triple-A affiliate, Gwinnett Braves, and have confirmed that he will start Thursday’s game against the New York Mets, taking the place of the injured Anibal Sanchez in the rotation. Lucas Sims was originally listed as the probable starting pitcher for tonight’s matchup, but this pitching change does very little to alter the pitching outlook of the main slate or projections of the Mets hitters, as Sims and Wisler are both right-handed and possess similar overall skillsets. Additionally, to make room on the active roster, Atlanta also announced that outfielder Lane Adams has been designated for assignment.

Big Favorite In A Plus Matchup

I’d love to be able to pay for both Greinke and Taillon tonight, but it’s going to be tough. The salary savings from Taillon down to Chase Anderson makes the Brewers righty my likely SP2 target. I don’t love him for immense upside, but with this weak Marlins lineup lacking in power, it’s easy to see the path for Anderson to post a quality start with his strong control and ability to limit hard contact. I would label him more as a “won’t lose it for you” type of guy rather than a must-play.