DFS Alerts
Left-handed batters have a .370 or better wOBA against James Shields every year since 2015
James Shields remains on track and starts against the Astros tonight two days after throwing an inning in relief. While he’s been moderately effective against RHBs, lefties have torched him for a .370 wOBA or better every season since 2015, including this one so far. He’s amazingly allowed just a single home run, but he also struck out just a single batter over his first two starts. He compiled six last time out, but that came with five walks. The Astros have dropped a struggling Alex Bregman (-1 wRC+ last seven days, 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) to sixth in the lineup. Although carrying a 5.01 implied run line, the top of the Houston lineup remains predominantly right-handed and quite expensive on a night where players may be paying up for pitching. Josh Reddick (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a bit more affordable and perhaps should be the primary target in this offense tonight. Brian McCann (108 wRC+, .198 ISO) is playable behind the plate, batting seventh.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, James Shields
Trevor Richards has a 7.4 SwStr% through three starts and could be in trouble in Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Brewers have an implied run line of 5.01 that compares favorably with both Coors teams and the Cardinals tonight. They host a Miami pitcher who probably doesn’t belong in the majors. He threw seven shutout innings in his last start, but struck out just two Pirates and failed to make it through the fifth in his previous two. It’s a very small sample, but same handed batters have hit him harder so far (.450 wOBA, .486 xwOBA, 46.2 Hard%) and with just a 41.2 GB% so far, Trevor Richards, with just 75 innings above A ball, may be in trouble here. While no individual batter stands out with Eric Thames (141 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since last year) dropping to fifth and costing nearly $5K on DraftKings, various stacking combinations could be profitable in this spot.
Seven RHBs for St Louis tonight exceed a 110 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs LHP since 2017
The Cardinals have a 5.06 implied run line that compares favorably with teams playing at Coors tonight when they host the Reds and Brandon Finnegan in a much more negative run environment. Finnegan made his first major league start since last June and walked four, allowing two HRs to the same Cardinals he faces tonight. Right-handed batters have a 17.0 career HR/FB against him. That’s 33 HRs in 802 PAs with a 41 GB%. Cincinnati is a much more power friendly park than St Louis, though Finnegan’s home runs are split fairly evenly home and away (though more PAs away). He also can’t find the plate against anyone and RHBs have a career 35.7 Hard% against him. Jose Martinez (220 wRC+, .517 xwOBA, .403 ISO vs LHP career) still costs less than $4K on either site. In fact, only Marcell Ozuna (102 wRC+, .111 ISO) has a wRC+ below 110 and an ISO below .250 against southpaws since last season among the seven right-handed hitters in tonight’s lineup. Considering Finnegan’s control issues, this lineup should play well as a stack, moving around the bases.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Finnegan Justin Bour (138 wRC+, .408 xwOBA vs RHP since last year) is a cheap bat in a nice spot in Milwaukee
On the surface, Jhoulys Chacin would seem like an ideal, low cost secondary compliment to your high priced DraftKings pitcher. He’s facing a Marlins’ offense with a 71 wRC+ and 24.6 K% vs RHP. However, Chacin has completed five innings just once in four starts for the Brewers with a 12.5 K% (6.7 SwStr%). In a park that’s very power friendly to left-handed batters, something else now emerges against a pitcher with a significant platoon problem (LHBs .349 wOBA, .362 xwOBA, 33.3 Hard%, 46 GB%). Justin Bour (138 wRC+, .408 xwOBA, .252 ISO, 40.4 Hard%) costs just $3K on DraftKings and has a 202 wRC+ (41.2 Hard%) over the last seven days. Bour may be part of a better path to a higher priced pitcher on DraftKings than Chacin.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin Cubs employ interesting lineup structure (three RHBs at top) against Jon Gray at Coors
Joe Maddon has emerged with an interesting lineup construction tonight. He leads off with three straight right-handed bats against Jon Gray. Gray doesn’t have a career platoon split, but when you break it down into four parts adding home and away, right-handed batters at Coors come out with the highest wOBA at .331, despite also the highest K-BB (20.7%). The reason for this may be home runs. Though he’s split evenly with nine home runs allowed in his career at home and away against left-handed batters and at home vs right-handed batters (eight on the road vs righties), the nine at home come in just 314 PAs, where he has at least 349 PAs against in each of the other three instances. And in fact, Coors has a significantly higher home run factor for right-handed batters (1.34) according to Seamheads.org three year park factors. There’s not much players can do with this if they prefer high priced pitching because while Albert Almora Jr. costs $3.2K or less on either site, he has just a 78 wRC+ with a .141 ISO vs RHP since last year, but Javier Baez (101 wRC+, .223 ISO) has a 203 wRC+ over the last week and costs under $5K on DraftKings. Another factor players will want to keep an eye in is Kevin’s forecast, which puts this game in danger. The Cubs have a 4.92 implied run line that’s not even top three on the board.
Other tagged players: Jon Gray, Albert Almora Both Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar have a 66.7 Hard% over the last week, Yankees (5.23) have highest run line tonight
The Yankees have a board high 5.23 implied runs tonight against Marco Estrada and that includes the game at Coors tonight. The issue is that right-handed batters have a .366 wOBA and 27.5 GB% against Estrada since last season in a park where popups occasionally go out to right-field. With Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since last season) striking out at a ridiculous rate and Estrada the ability to miss bats (12.4 SwStr%), he may not be the most cost effective play on a night where players are probably considering high priced pitchers. Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .349 ISO) may be someone players want to check projected ownership rates on later (premium subscribers can do this either via LineupHQ or the Projected Ownership page). If it looks like he’ll be lightly owned, it might make sense to find some exposure. Both he and Miguel Andujar (147 wRC+, .333 ISO in 32 PA vs RHP career) have a 66.7 Hard% over the last week with a wRC+ well above 200. Andujar costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Miguel Andujar, Marco Estrada Ivan Nova has substantial platoon splits, but Phillies don't possess much left-handed power
The Phillies have a modest 4.06 implied run, but are facing a pitcher with a substantial platoon split. Left-handed batters have a .349 wOBA against Ivan Nova, but a .384 xwOBA with just a 42.6 GB% since last season. While the Phillies may be unable to take advantage of that with power (Carlos Santana is the only LHB in the lineup with an ISO above .170 vs RHP since last season), this is a combination that the Phils may be able to run on. Cesar Herandez (112 wRC+) and Odubel Herrera (107 wRC+, .166 ISO) may be able to take advantage of that with speed at the top of the order. All three bats are moderately priced.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez Despite the low run line, players may be able to find some value in low priced Tampa Bay and Minnesota bats
Lance Lynn struck out nine Astros last time out and has a double digit SwStr% in both starts, as it looks like he’s going with more cutters and fewer sinkers so far, but he’s walked 10 of 42 batters with just 29.5% of pitchers in the strike zone. He’s had a significant platoon problem in recent seasons, which has carried over to his first two starts, mostly due to control issues. Left-handed batters have a .354 wOBA (.360 xwOBA against him since last season). Chris Archer has a double digit SwStr% in each start, but substantial velocity loss has led to a 91.3 mph aEV that’s the highest on the board. A board worst 47.8 Z-O-Swing%) suggests that opposing hitters are frequently punishing lesser stuff in the strike zone. Though both teams in this matchup have an implied run line below four, this is a spot where players may be able to find some value to pair with their higher priced pitchers. Specifically, leadoff man Denard Span (114 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since last season) costs less than $3K on either site and stands as good a chance at scoring a run as anyone against a pitcher who struggles to throw strikes to LHBs. Joey Wendle (113 wRC+, .217 ISO) is a smaller sample, similarly priced middle infield option a bit lower in the order. Left-handed batters have a substantial .350 wOBA with a 43.1 Hard% against Archer since last season. The Twins have four left-handed batters (Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison, and Max Kepler), who all have a wRC+ in the 120 to 130 range against righties since last season, Mauer (.127) the long member of the group with an ISO below .220. Unfortunately, none have been swinging the bat well recently, but that’s understandable having faced the top end of a tough Cleveland staff this week. None of the four cost more than $3.2K on either site.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison, Max Kepler, Joe Mauer, Joey Wendle, Chris Archer, Lance Lynn Stolen Base Threat Ratings and Umpire Ratings among new features available to Premium subscribers
Premium subscribers may have noticed some new features available to them this week. Yesterday, the Stolen Base Threats board went live. This leaderboard will show you which speedsters have the best shot at stealing bases independent of their actual ability to reach base tonight. “Takeoff” and “Success” ratings are calculated independently for baserunners, pitchers and catchers to come up with overall individual matchup ratings. While a burner like Jarrod Dyson or Billy Hamilton might be the top overall threat, players still need to factor that in with their ability to reach base. Perhaps someone like Whit Merrifield (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs LHP since 2017) stands out as the best of both worlds in a matchup with Daniel Norris (RHBs .353 xwOBA, 42.3 Hard% since last season). Noah Syndergaard has always been a pitcher that the opposing team can and will run at will against, provided they can reach base in the first place. Premium and/or BAT subscribers will now also notice Umpire assignments and ratings (Extreme Pitcher, Pitcher, Neutral, Hitter, Extreme Hitter) available in LineupHQ as well, as those assignments become available throughout the day.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Billy Hamilton, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris, Jarrod Dyson Though Scherzer vs Kershaw is the premier matchup on the board, they're far from the only high upside arms on Friday
A Clayton Kershaw vs Max Scherzer matchup is going to be the attention getter on any slate. While Scherzer has struck out 10 or more in three of his first four starts, Kershaw struck out 12 of 24 Diamondbacks in his most recent. He is still very much a top three pitcher in the league when healthy. A challenge might be to construct a decent DraftKings lineup containing both high priced pitchers. They are not the only high upside pitchers on a board with four additional arms exceeding a 25 K% in three or more starts this season. Justin Verlander (33.7 K%) and Noah Syndergaard (37.9 K%) are the other expensive ($10K+) arms. Verlander in a high upside spot in Chicago (AL), Syndergaard in a tougher matchup in Atlanta (111 wRC+, 19.0 K% vs RHP), though the surface numbers don’t nearly show how dominant he’s been (54.2 GB%, 22.9% 95+ mph EV, 80.7 Z-Contact%, 27.3 Z-O-Swing%). One issue may be that Syndergaard has not gone more than six innings in four starts and only that in two (though a blister was the reason for one of those failures). His strikeout rate has exceeded 40% in three of his four starts. Costing only $8K on DraftKIngs, Dylan Bundy is the only pitcher on today’s board to match Syndergaard with both an elite Z-Contact (78.1%) and Z-O-Swing (30.9%). More sliders have led to more swings and misses this year (16.3 SwStr%). There’s always the danger of an extreme fly ball pitcher in Baltimore and the Cleveland offense is certainly more potent than they’ve shown this year (71 wRC+), but that risk seems to be baked into the cost (he’s $1.4K more expensive on FanDuel). Sean Newcomb could walk the park and be out by the fifth inning, but he’s otherwise combined lots of swings and misses (31 K%, 11.5 SwStr%) with great contact management (51.2 GB%, 2.4% Barrels/BBE). He may be the ultimate GPP play against a Mets’ offense that contains some right-handed thump, but has a 66 wRC+ and 29.6 K% vs LHP so far. Trevor Bauer is another high slider usage guy now, turning that into a 24.7 K% this year that’s more in line with his SwStr rate (10.1%) than last year. The difference is that he’s combined that with solid contact management this year (3.6% Barrels/BBE). With the same dangerous caveat applying to him as Bundy in Baltimore, the Orioles have a 28.3 K% vs RHP this year and 30.8 K% over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Dylan Bundy, Sean Newcomb Love Lefties Against this Pitcher
The biggest weakness for the Phillies is that they strikeout at a high rate. That shouldn’t be an issue tonight against Ivan Nova, who has a 12% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. This is one of the best ballparks in baseball when it comes to home run production and the fact that Nova struggles with left-handed power only boosts my interest in Carlos Santana. He’s affordable and makes sense in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite One-Off in all Formats
The Royals have one of the worst offenses in baseball. They aren’t a team that I am looking to stack anytime soon, but I do like one hitter in particular. Whit Merrifield mashes left-handed pitching and sees a ballpark bump playing in Detroit. With this being the second game of a double-header, the Tigers are forced to start Daniel Norris, who allowed a .353 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters last season.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Start your Coors Stacks
Jon Gray is a good pitcher. I have a lot of respect for him. He has a decent strikeout rate and a decent ground ball rate. But we can throw all of that out the window when he pitches at home. Ian Happ is batting leadoff for the Cubs tonight in the best hitter’s park in baseball. His price isn’t as high as I was expecting, so I will gladly take the discount and use him in all formats.
Underpriced and in an Exploitable Matchup
Gray hasn’t had the best luck in the early part of the season. While his high walk rate hasn’t helped, it’s safe to say that his .409 BABIP is going to come down (league average is around .300). The advanced numbers all check out — 3.75 SIERA, 22% strikeout rate, and a 61% ground ball rate. Perhaps this is the night where positive regression shines through. I’m not afraid to target pitchers against the Blue Jays when they are on the road. They have some decent power in their lineup, but have six projected starters with at least a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Time for a Bounce Back
There are plenty of great arms taking the mound tonight, but Archer is my favorite when you factor in salaries. He gives you elite strikeout upside at a fraction of the price. Sheesh, I’m starting to sound like a used car salesman. He’s been unlucky in his first four starts this season, but positive regression is due. He currently owns a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. The Twins actually have a potent offense, but Archer gets to face them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It’s time for one of his classic double-digit strikeout performances.