DFS Alerts
High Priced Duo
It’s a little weird to consider Syndergaard a SP2 but the quality of pitching options drops off dramatically after we leave the top tier. Weather permitting, it appears to be a slate where rostering two high priced starting pitchers is the best approach in cash games. While Sale remains my top overall pitching option, roster construction may force us into making Strasburg or Ohtani our SP1 on Draftkings due to salary differences between them and Sale. Combining Ohtani + Syndergaard gives you $3,562 left per player to fill out your remaining roster, which is doable on this slate.
Weather Dictatorship
Sunday’s pitching options are stacked but the majority of them are playing in spots where weather is going to have at least some sort of influence on the game and if it plays at all. Instead of telling you how awesome I think Chris Sale is, I’m going to rank my preferred cash game SP1’s for the main slate – 1) Chris Sale 2) Stephen Strasburg 3) Corey Kluber (PPD) 4) Shohei Ohtani 5) Noah Syndergaard. Purely from a weather perspective, Ohtani jumps out as the safest option as there is no precipitation in the forecast in Kansas City. Keep an eye on RG’s weather page up until lineup lock as we’ll hopefully get a little more clarity with some of these situations the closer we get to game time.
LAA-KC game the only remaining trouble spot in Saturday's MLB weather forecast
The Chicago White Sox versus Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees versus Detroit Tigers were postponed on Saturday morning, affecting the early slates across the industry, but it appears that almost all of the remaining games on tonight’s main slates should play through without any issues, according to Kevin Roth’s latest updated MLB weather forecast. However, the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals did receive a grade of ORANGE due to the amount of rain beginning around or slightly before first pitch. Obviously, the chance of a postponement makes all pitchers and hitters from this game far less appealing with the extra associated risk, so be sure to check out the full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below for all your weather-based daily fantasy needs
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather
Despite solid two-game stretch, Derek Holland posted a 5.97 xFIP and a 25.7% Hard-Soft% versus RHB in 2017
Holland is coming off of a relatively impressive start his last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing just two earned runs and punching out eight in six innings of work. Still, there’s a reason why Holland could only sneak into the San Francisco Giants starting rotation because of injuries to Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija during spring training. Holland has done a solid job of limiting hard contact through two starts, recording just a 23.1% hard-hit percentage, but he continues to give up an astronomical amount of fly balls, exactly 50.0% of the time thus far. In addition, the San Diego Padres have rolled out a lineup with seven right-handed bats for Saturday’s matchup in an effort to take advantage of Holland’s abysmal 2017 splits against right-handed hitters, evidenced by a 17.5% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 43.2% fly ball rate, and a massive 40.8% hard-hit percentage. All in all, those metrics led to a whopping .408 wOBA, 5.97 xFIP, and 2.26 HR/9 versus righties last season. Even though Holland recorded a lower 13.4% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, he was still significantly better against lefties, inducing a 54.1% ground ball rate and 28.6% hard-hit percentage, making the lone-lefty in the Padres order, Cory Spangenberg, a logical fade candidate in all formats, especially as a one-off option. This leaves Hunter Renfroe (0.435 xwOBA, 0.352 ISO vs LHP), Christian Villanueva (0.534 xwOBA, 0.500 ISO vs LHP in 24 PA), and Jose Pirela (39.2% HH%, 0.250 ISO vs LHP) as the primary right-handed power bats to target from this Padres squad on tonight’s main slates across the industry.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Christian Villanueva, Jose Pirela, Derek Holland Jameson Taillon owns a 28.0% K-BB% but has just a 9.4% SwStr% in two starts
Taillon is off to one of, if not, the best start to the 2018 campaign of any starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, as he’s allowed just two earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched while punching a total of 16 batters through two outings. Taillon was a highly-touted prospect coming up through the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system, so these performances aren’t necessarily surprising, but they are unprecedented considering Taillon has yet to record a strikeout rate above 21.3% over the course of a full season in the big leagues. While an elite prospect can be expected to increase his strikeout numbers as he gains experience, there are some red flags that his current 32.0% strikeout rate isn’t sustainable, namely a meager 9.4% swinging strike rate, which suggests that Taillon still isn’t yet a premier strikeout pitcher at this point in his young career. That said, his 4.0% walk rate, 48.4% ground ball rate, and 16.1% hard-hit percentage are all statistics that are absolutely believable based on Taillon’s prior sample size in the Majors, though that minuscule hard-hit percentage will likely be due for some gradual regression as the season moves along. Taillon is a lock-and-load option for all formats on FanDuel given his absurdly low price tag of $9200, but on DraftKings he becomes an intriguing discussion at a massive $12000 price point, especially if among the believers that Taillon won’t be able to maintain his current strikeout pace. The matchup with the Miami Marlins in a pitchers park is likely enough to make Taillon the preferred cash game target at the starting pitcher position on DraftKings but provided the uncertainty surrounding his consistent upside, makes him a more than viable fade in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Start of Saturday''s TOR-CLE game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians on Saturday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, while Cleveland has also not provided a timeline for any further clarification.The late start is good news for the prospects of Corey Kluber not being pulled from his start due to a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s a possibility that the game is postponed before the first batch of rain clears out of the area, resulting in a firm ORANGE risk classification.
As reported by: Ryan Lewis via Twitter Victor Caratini scratched Saturday; Albert Almora replaces
Caratini has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup with the Atlanta Braves due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Albert Almora, who will play center field and slot into the second spot in the order, moving Javier Baez all the way down to the sixth spot, while Addison Russell also slides down one batting position to seventh. It goes without saying that there are some noteworthy changes to this Cubs order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Sean Newcomb this afternoon.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Brian Goodwin (sore wrist) scratched Saturday; Moises Sierra replaces
Goodwin has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies due to a sore right wrist. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Moises Sierra, who will play left field and slot directly into Goodwin’s seventh spot in the order, which means that the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact as they face off against right-hander Jon Gray this afternoon.
As reported by: Jorge Castillo via Twitter Strong Skill Set For This Ballpark
Junis has back-to-back seven inning shutouts to start the season, and while he certainly won’t continue this pace, there is a lot to like here. He has elite control and high fly balls while limiting hard contact. That is an ideal skill set for a Royals pitcher in a ballpark that suppresses home runs. He is going to get a lot of easy innings with all those soft hit pop ups, and even when he allows a few home runs, his low walks make it unlikely there will be many runners on base when they happen. Strong SP2 candidate at a fair price.
Once Again, Just Play The Best
As I’m building lineups for tonight, it becomes clear that there’s just not much to pay up for. Especially if you go for any discount at pitcher, you can spend up for a hitter with no trouble tonight. And why not just spend up for the best? Jake Junis is a good pitcher, but he allows a lot of fly balls with just average strikeouts. Mike Trout is not the guy to be throwing hittable strikes to. He has a 46% hard hit rate and .305 ISO in the early going this year, and in 2017, smashed righties with a 359 ISO and 190 wrC+.
Leading Off At A Discount
Oakland is a top team to target tonight against the low strikeouts of Marco Gonzales. Gonzales has a career 17.6% K rate to right-handed batters, and while he wants to get ground balls, even that was no better than average at 43% in 2017. Marcus Semien and his 41% hard hit rate against lefties is an easy affordable way to get exposure to a high upside offense.
Too Cheap At The Hot Corner
On FanDuel and FantasyDraft where we can use two third baseman, Kyle Seager joins Shaw as a core play. Kendall Graveman has shown no ability at all to strikeout left-handed batters and even his ground balls were not better than average in 2017. Seager is priced too low for a guy with a 16.3% K rate, 38% hard hits and big power upside with his 52% fly balls against right-handed pitching.
Just Another Khrush
Khris Davis has been crushing the ball lately and has another plus matchup against Marco Gonzales on Saturday night. Davis has two or more hits in the last three games and has three HRs over the last two games. Khrush has shown tremendous power against left handed pitching over his career (.260 ISO) and he’s simply underpriced ($4,400 DK, $3,600 FD) for his upside in this matchup.
Batter vs Pitcher
First base seems to be another position where it makes sense to save a few bucks in cash games. Justin Bour represents the best pts/$ option as he’s only $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. Bour brings up an interesting strategy note as he faces one of the top cash game pitching options on the slate in Jameson Taillon. Typically it’s best to avoid rostering hitters against your pitcher but things change a little bit on shorter slates. Bour profiles as the perfect type of hitter to roster against your own starting pitcher – a (cheap) guy that either hits a HR or strikes out. I have no issues with rostering both Bour + Taillon in the same cash game lineups on Saturday night.
No Offensive Juggernaut
While Nick Hundley is far, far from an offensive juggernaut, he is simply underpriced at a weak position. This is a strong matchup for Hundley, and other Giants right handed batters, as they take on Clayton Richard, whom has allowed a .355 wOBA to RHB over the course of his career. Hundley’s teammate, Buster Posey, is the far superior option at the position but also significantly more expensive. Hundley is your guy in cash games if you’re looking to pitch Jameson Taillon as your SP1.