DFS Alerts
Saturday’s NYY-DET game postponed due to rain
The matchup between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon has been postponed due to rain. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up tomorrow, weather permitting, as part of a split doubleheader.
As reported by: Pete Caldera via Twitter
Clear #2
While SP1 is a close race between Taillon and Hill, Garrett Richards is the clear cut SP2 option on DraftKings. Despite a mixed result to start the season, DK is still lagging a bit in terms of pricing Richards accurately and he remains underpriced for Saturday’s slate. Richards has struggled with control early on (17.1 BB%) which has hurt him a bit in terms of run prevention (4.20 ERA) but he’s turned in two serviceable fantasy performances so far this year thanks to his strong strikeout numbers (27.1 K%). While weather has made Kauffman a more friendly hitting environment the last couple of games, the stadium should play favorably for pitchers once again on Saturday night as temps are around 40 degrees and it could be a little wet. The Royals don’t strikeout a ton but this is a strong situation for Richards to limit damage, making him a good play for his price on DraftKings.
Close Call
The decision between Rich Hill and Jameson Taillon as your cash game pitcher may be a lot closer than people think on Saturday night. Taillon has been lights out to start the season (14.1 IP, 2 ER, 16 SO) but his price tag has adjusted quickly, especially on DraftKings where he’s all the way up to $12,000. Unlike Gerrit Cole and his gaudy SwStr% that we saw on display Friday night, Taillon has been merely average at inducing swings and misses to start the year (9.4 SwStr%) which could be an indication that his 32% strikeout rate is likely to plummet throughout the course of a season. Taillon is likely a “safer” option than Rich Hill but make sure to keep an eye on lineups as they come out for the slate – a favorable (weak) Diamondbacks lineup may make the savings Rich Hill provides worthwhile.
Attack Here With Lefties
There are very few things in this world that are worse than what Matt Harvey was against lefties in 2017. This is his stat line against left-handed bats – 13.7% K, 13.2% BB, 37% HH, 30% line drives, 38% fly balls, 2.68 HR/9, .426 wOBA allowed. Travis Shaw hit the ball hard against right-handed pitching leading to a .373 wOBA and .249 ISO. He is also willing to take a walk, which gave him a .361 OBP. He is in play at this price in all formats.
The Safe Play For Saturday Night
I want to urge some caution with the sudden strikeout surge for Taillon. He may be a tad overpriced for his true upside based on a couple good starts, but on this small slate, with this matchup, he is still the clear top option. Even if his strikeouts drop back down into the low-20% range, we can still count on strong control, ground balls and soft contact. He can throw a lot of innings, and there is not much danger of Miami causing him a lot of trouble here. Just be aware that he is very unlikely to continue at this 30% strikeout clip, and there’s not a lot of points per dollar upside at this salary.
Saturday’s CHW-MIN game has been postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins on Saturday afternoon has been postponed due to inclement weather. With snow and freezing temperatures forecasted for the next few days in Minnesota, the teams have yet to confirm when today or yesterday’s previously scheduled games will be played, though the Twins did disclose that further information would be announced at a later date.
As reported by: the Minnesota Twins via Twitter Padres RHB FTW
Derek Holland is one of the most hittable pitchers in Major League Baseball, especially if you swing from the right side of the plate. In 2017 Holland allowed a .430 wOBA and a 41.3% hard hit rate, to go along with a whopping 26 home runs to right-handed batters. That pretty much puts all the San Diego Padres right-handed hitters in play tonight, with Jose Pirela and Franchy Cordero leading the way in terms of point per dollar.
Other tagged players: Franchy Cordero
Middle Infield Upside At A Bargain Price
Marco Gonzlales is another southpaw we can attack on this Saturday evening. The 26 year old lefty has struggled throughout his career when facing hitters from the right side of the plate (surrendering a .392 wOBA and a 38.4% hard hit rate), and I think we see more of the same tonight in Safeco Field. Hitting at the top of the Oakland As order, both Marcus Semien and Jed Lowrie (on DK) remain underpriced, and both have big game upside in this plus matchup. Also, if the As top prospect Franklin Barreto gets the start, he makes a tremendous salary saver.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Franklin Barreto Quality Start Potential At A Discounted Price
Jake Junis put together a solid rookie season in 2017, and he is very quietly off to a great start in 2018. In his two starts this year, Junis has gone 14 innings without allowing a run, while walking just three batters and generating nine strikeouts. The Los Angeles Angels are not an ideal matchup by any means, but we are lacking quality value arms on the main slate, and the Kansas City Royals young hurler will be facing them in one of the best pitching environments in Major League Baseball. Neither lefties nor righties have had much success against Junis and I think we see him produce another quality start, and at his price point, a quality start with a handful of strikeouts will work just fine.
Big Upside, Inexpensive Price Tag
Garrett Richards has been quite inconsistent to say the least so far this year, however, there is reason for optimism. The Los Angeles Angels righty has issued 12 walks in 15 innings pitched thus far, which is why he has yet to complete six innings, but his stuff looks great (consistently hitting the mid/upper 90s with his fastball, while inducing a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 58% groundball rate), and if he can limit the walks tonight, he should very well be on his way to a quality start, with a strikeout per inning. Considering the matchup, Ball Park and his arsenal, Richards is under priced on tonights slate.
Wild Bour Power
I am actually a big fan of Jameson Taillon and I rarely look to target hitters against him, however, we do have a short slate on deck and we are lacking value, which means I am looking to Justin Bour once again. Bour answered the bell last night (two hits including a home run, giving him three home runs in his last three games) and he has always blasted right handed pitching (posting a .361 wOBA and a 37.3% hard hit rate). With a less than ideal mound opponent, the Wild Bour is not a great cash game option, but considering his home run upside and inexpensive price tag, he is certainly in play for GPPs.
Arizona lineup is looking fragile, but Kenta Maeda has only six starts of six innings or better since 2017
While both Kenta Maeda (12.5 SwStr% last year) and Zack Greinke (12.4 SwStr%) excel at missing bats, they have differing issues tonight. Greinke has a 30.4 K% and 16 SwStr% through two starts, both of which lasted fewer than 90 pitches. His velocity is down even further this year and while that didn’t matter last season, his hard hit rate continues to climb (35.1% last year, 37.5% so far in 2018), there will come a point at which it catches up to him. The Dodgers should be much better than their 84 wRC+ and have struck out only 17% of plate appearances vs RHP. Cody Bellinger (138 wRC+, .302 ISO, 43 Hard% career vs RHP) and Corey Seager (118 wRC+, .165 ISO, 42 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) are players to look at, as is Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .239 ISO). The Arizona lineup is looking quite fragile tonight with no real power behind Paul Goldschmidt (139 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since last season). Kenta Maeda, in addition to missing bats, manages contact exceptionally well. The issue is that he’s only completed six innings in six of 26 starts since last season and costs quite a bit. If he repeats his first start of the season (five IP, 10 Ks), that’s not a problem, but the only inning he’s thrown since is in relief.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Corey Seager
Mike Leake has a 4.7 SwStr% through two starts, LHBs had a .364 xwOBA against him last year
Andrew Triggs may be an arm of interest tonight. Results have been inconsistent, but his SwStr rate generally reaches double digits with a ground ball rate around 50%. That may be enough upside for a pitcher who costs $8K or less tonight in a favorable park in Seattle, against a decent offense, but one missing their top right-handed power bat. On the other side, Mike Leake has estimators almost double his 3.00 ERA through two starts and the A’s have been good. He has just a 4.7 SwStr% through two starts and LHBs had an xwOBA (.364) some 37 points above his actual rate last year. While he generally keeps the ball on the ground half the time against batters from either side, Matt Olsen (184 wRC+, .389 ISO vs RHP career) is tough to ignore, while Jed Lowrie (129 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Matt Joyce (128 wRC+, .253 ISO) both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Andrew Triggs, Jed Lowrie, Mike Leake Gerrit Cole and Boston bats are expected to be well represented in lineups tonight
Without a clear secondary option behind Gerrit Cole, players could be inclined to pay more for bats if going in a different direction tonight. Boston has the highest implied run line on the board and with top bats in similar price ranges to lesser projected offenses tonight, Red Sox stacks are expected to be popular. Premium players can find the projected ownership rates for these bats and find out who players may be pivoting to behind tonight’s top arm on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership The updated evening forecast has some rain, but has low PPD concerns
David has updated Kevin’s morning forecast in the forums (it’s a tag team effort today). The good news is that after the one cancellation, David has a few YELLOWS, but sees a window for each of the games. Kevin will not be on Crunch Time tonight, but players can go check out David’s updated forecast in the forum, linked below.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Forum