DFS Alerts
Red hot Angels have a high implied run line (5.25), but many expensive bats in a power suppressing park (Kansas City)
The Los Angeles Angels have been one of the top offenses this season (139 wRC+ on the road, 133 wRC+ vs RHP, 157 wRC+ last seven days) and have one of the top implied run lines on the board (5.25) in Kansas City. Jason Hammel is not terrible, but is probably a below average pitcher at this point without much of a platoon split. In fact. RHBs had a .357 xwOBA against him last year. Perhaps the .322 actual wOBA (and .328 actual wOBA vs .342 xwOBA for LHBs) is in part due to a park that suppresses power for fly ball pitchers. The top bats vs RHP since last year for the Angels are all fairly expensive. Mike Trout (186 wRC+, .346 ISO) costs the same as a low end pitcher, while Justin Upton (121 wRC+, .236 ISO), Zack Cozart (135 wRC+, .241 ISO) and even Shohei Ohtani (up a spot in the order tonight) are in the $4K+ range on either site. Kole Calhoun (101 wRC+, .247 ISO) is just an average bat, but may be the value play here. Ian Kinsler (82 wRC+, .158 ISO) also costs less than $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Ian Kinsler, Jason Hammel
Whit Merrifield (108 wRC+) is the only batter in the Kansas City lineup to exceed a 100 wRC+ vs LHP since last year
The Royals load up a lineup of seven right-handed batters against the oft-injured Andrew Heaney in his 2018 major league debut. You might think that a poor omen for a pitcher who has allowed 27 HRs to 550 righties faced in his career (.349 wOBA). Behind Whit Merrifield (108 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP since 2017) the next highest wRC+ belongs to Alcides Escobar (97) and only the two lefties (Mike Moustakas 96 wRC+, .188 ISO and Lucas Duda 58 wRC+, .198 ISO) have ISOs above .152. Heaney has missed almost all of the last two seasons (27.2 IP) after Tommy John surgery. His lone start this month comes in High A, where he struck out six of 22 batters, but the workload is the important thing here. He’s facing a poor offense in not a pitcher friendly park, but a power suppressing one, which should support his career 38.8 GB%, at a low price. At $5.9K, he’s one of several lottery tickets on DraftKings if paying up for Cole.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda, Alcides Escobar Cole Hamels has been a true three outcome pitcher this year (32.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 38.5 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels is off to an interesting start. Through three starts, he has a 32.4 K% and 15 SwStr% despite being down two miles per hour. He’s also allowed five HRs (46.2 Hard%, 38.5 HR/FB) with nine walks (12.7 BB%). All that extra work has kept him from completing six innings in any of his starts. The enormous strikeout rate might entice players in a better spot, but he also still costs $9.1K on DraftKings. The Astros pummeled left-handed pitchers last year and are off to a 151 wRC+ start against them in 2018. There is only one left-handed batter in the lineup and no easy outs for a pitcher who has allowed a .335 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) with a 39 Hard% to right-handed batters since last season. The first four batters in the lineup (George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) all exceed a 150 wRC+ and .200 ISO against LHP since last season with Altuve (.204) the only one below a .228 ISO. The surprise here might be Jake Marisnick (131 wRC+, .240 ISO, 52.3 FB%), who’s sudden found power could make him an interesting play at a cost of $3K or less despite batting ninth. The Astros have the second highest implied run line on the board (5.28).
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jake Marisnick, Cole Hamels The Rockies have a 61 wRC+ vs RHP this year and are without their best hitter
Tanner Roark turned in a double digit swinging strike rate (10.1%) for the first time in his career last year en route to a career high 21.4 K% (more changeups, fewer sinkers). This also led to a career high 4.67 ERA. He’s continued and even improved on those bat missing tendencies (30.6 K%, 11.9 SwStr%) this year, but has dropped over a mile per hour in velocity through two starts and was hit hard by the Mets last time out despite striking out nine. The good news is that he faces a Colorado lineup (61 wRC+ vs RHP this year) with nearly nothing from the left-hand side (no Blackmon) and he gets to do that in Washington. There are only a handful of pitchers averaging six innings or more on the board today too. The top three Colorado bats against RHP in this lineup are Chris Iannetta (111 wRC+, .242 ISO since last season), Carlos Gonzalez (106 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (96 wRC+, .222 ISO) and that includes Coors numbers. No other batter comes close to even being average against RHP since last season, though Ryan McMahon (13 wRC+, .034 ISO in 34 PAs vs RHP) is a highly touted, lefty swinging bat. Roark is a reasonable pivot from Clevinger in a similar price range on FanDuel and perhaps the superior play on DraftKings for $800 less.
Other tagged players: Chris Iannetta, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon Friday's CHW-MIN game postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins on Friday night has been postponed due to impending inclement weather. With snow and freezing temperatures forecasted for the next few days in Minnesota, the teams have yet to confirm when tonight’s previously scheduled game will be played, though the Twins did disclose that further information would be announced at a later date.
As reported by: the Minnesota Twins via Twitter
Mike Clevinger may be trading a few strikeouts for efficiency, but Toronto has a 26.4 K% vs RHP and no Donaldson
Mike Clevinger’s 27.3 K% and 12.5 SwStr% last year are both tied for best on the board for the entire day. Excitement was abound this spring when he walked just four of 72 batters this spring (12% walk rate last year), striking out 25. He doesn’t have a history of going deep into games, but he did finish six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last year (missing once only by a single out). He’s proceeded to allow a single run in 12.2 innings, even pitching into the eighth in his last start, but he’s struck out only nine of 51 batters. The SwStr% is down nearly four points (8.7%), but so are the walks (7.8%). Not exactly what people were expecting, but perhaps the outlook is improved against a Toronto lineup with a 26.4 K% vs RHP so far and now without Josh Donaldson. Though, is it that much better to face a healthy Teoscar Hernandez (a capable bat) than an injured Donaldson? Clevinger is not cheap, but affordable and if trading a few strikeouts for a larger workload is not ideal, but efficiency is not the worst thing in the world on a board where there’s little confidence behind Gerrit Cole.
Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez Chad Kuhl struggles with LHBs (.375 wOBA), but the Marlins (25.8 K%, -1.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) have few of those
Chad Kuhl may capture the attention of some because he throws hard, but he also struggles with control (though that hasn’t always been the case) and gets hammered by left-handed batters (.375 wOBA, 39.1 Hard%). The good news is that the Marlins have maybe one legitimate LHB and have been so awful against RHP (63 wRC+, 25.8 K%, -1.8 Hard-Soft%) that’s he’s a worthy lottery ticket at a low cost tonight, even if the increased strikeout rate (22.9%) comes with a lowered SwStr rate (7.1%) through two starts. Justin Bour (133 wRC+, .248 ISO) is definitely a bat to look at tonight. He’s coming off a two home run game and costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl Mookie Betts has elevated his launch angle 10 degrees, already 36% of way to 2017 Barrels total
The only reason to suspect that the Red Sox might not demolish Chris Tillman tonight is if they might still be celebrating punishing Yankee pitching this week. A 5.97 implied run line is more than a half run above any other team tonight. Batters from either side exceed a .390 wOBA against Tillman since last season and his xwOBA splits confirm the same with a hard hit rate above 35% either way. J.D. Martinez (141 wRC+, .340 ISO, 49.6 Hard% vs RHP since last season) has an overall 81.8 Hard% over the last seven days. A fun stat comes from Baseball Savant’s Darren Williams this morning in which he tweets that Mookie Betts 106 wRC+, .189) is already 36% of the way to his 2017 Barrels total with a launch angle that is up 10 degrees.
As reported by: Darren Williams Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Chris Tillman Kyle Freeland has allowed two HRs in each of his first two starts, pitched worse away from Coors last season.
Kyle Freeland has some interesting splits: 21.2 K-BB% & 35.6 GB% vs LHBs, 2.7 K-BB% & 57.6 GB% vs RHBs. Both the K-BB% vs LHBs and GB% for RHBs have been a bit diminished away from Coors too. He’s also allowed two HRs in each of his two starts thus far, one of them in San Diego. The Nationals have plenty of RHBs who crush LHP and are one of a handful of teams with an implied run line exceeding five tonight. Anthony Rendon (169 wRC+, .316 ISO, 52.1 FB% vs LHP since last season) would seem the most likely to homer tonight, though Freeland has just a 35.6 GB% vs LHBs, making Bryce Harper (112 wRC+, .148 ISO) at least thought provoking in a same handed matchup. Ryan ZImmerman (155 wRC+, .306 ISO) costs $1K less than Rendon on FanDuel, but has struggled to a 28 wRC+ over the last week. Howie Kendrick (139 wRC+, .189 ISO) is the value play. Interesting to note that Zimmerman (+.018) is the only one in the lineup to have his xwOBA exceed his actual wOBA vs LHP since last season, though Kendrick (.041) is the only one with a large negative difference among those mentioned.
Two wild cards face off in Tampa Bay (Vince Velasquez vs Jake Faria), but the Rays have cut down on high K% hitters
Jake Faria has been terrible through two starts (5.2 IP – 9 ER – 8 BB – 2 K), but has faced a difficult Boston lineup in both those starts. Although it’s hard to have confidence in anyone after that line, you’d expect things to improve and the Phillies have a 27.6 K% against RHP. He costs less than $6K now on either site and could be one of quite a few lottery type arms to take a shot with on DraftKings if paying up for Cole. A 3.2 SwStr% right now is horrifying, but there’s been no significant velocity loss and he generated swings and misses on 12% of pitches last season. Similary, Vince Velasquez is a pitcher who’s results seem unpredictable from start to start and the first two this year have been no different. The difference between the two as lottery options tonight is simply cost. Velasques is significantly pricier, especially on DraftKings. One factor players may want to consider that hurts Vasquez is that the Rays have jettisoned most of their bats who struggled against high heat (Dickerson, Souza, Morrison). This could limit his upside. Carlos Santana (118 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since last year) would be a solid play tonight. While walks are not what daily fantasy players are really looking for, he has a combination of power and patience that should give him a high enough floor with a strong enough ceiling. Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .329 ISO) is the obvious bat against a pitcher who has a reverse split thus far in his career (LHBs .275 wOBA, 25.6 Hard%, 50 GB% – RHBs .327 wOBA, 36.4 Hard%, 31 GB%). The Rays have a number of guys near the top of the lineup with both a wRC+ and ISO a bit above average against RHP since last season (Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier and even Carlos Gomez).
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier, Carlos Gomez, Vince Velasquez, Jacob Faria Gerrit Cole left his sinker in Pittsburgh and has spiked his strikeout rate with more sliders for the Astros
Friday night’s board is full of pitchers who have performed differently than either they did last year or have been expected to this year for both better and worse. Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the board and one of those guys. His cost has escalated quickly after striking out 22 of the first 51 batters he has faced for his new team and it’s a positive change players can believe in because there’s something behind it. While the Pirates emphasize ground balls and pitch efficiency, the Astros emphasize bat missing pitches as a team philosophy. Sure enough, Cole has left his sinker in Pittsburgh and has come out throwing more sliders. His two outings have been against whiff-tastic offenses in the Rangers and Padres. It’s not going to remain this good, but he’s facing the Ranger again with a fairly extreme run environment upgrade. While Texas has been one of the most positive run environments outside of Coors the last few years, Houston has been one of the most negative. And Cole hasn’t even had to sacrifice efficiency since he’s not walking anyone either. He’s gone seven innings in each of his starts. There are just a handful of pitchers who have averaged six innings or more over the last two years on tonight’s board and just about all of them have some kind of concern or issue. Sometimes, it’s as easy as the most expensive pitcher is the top choice and Friday seems to be one of those instances.
Lefty on the Mound? Count me in
The Padres aren’t my favorite offense in the world, but one batter is always on my radar when they are facing a left-handed pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, Hunter Renfroe has a .387 xwOBA and a .354 ISO against southpaws. He always seems underpriced given his upside and he gets to square off against Ty Blach, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball.
Elite Value Play at First Base
Targeting hitters in Petco Park isn’t something that I try to do often, but I will be making an exception for Brandon Belt tonight. He squares off against Tyson Ross, who is a ground ball pitcher that has struggled with left-handed hitters throughout his career. Meanwhile, Belt mashes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .400+ xwOBA and is a massive fly-ball hitter. This seems like a great matchup for Belt and he is basically free across the industry.
Elite Play in Good Hitting Conditions
Kauffman Stadium has always been a ballpark that is tough to hit home runs in, but we have 18+ MPH winds blowing straight out to left field. Mike Trout has as much power as any hitter in baseball and he also carries a high on-base percentage and an ability to steal bases. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jason Hammel, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a .357 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.
Everything Lines up for a Strong Outing
Roark has improved his strikeout rate in each of the last three seasons and that trend has continued through his first two starts of 2018. He’s not going to sustain a 31% strikeout rate, but perhaps I didn’t give him enough credit last season. The Rockies lineup looks tough on paper, but some of those numbers are inflated by Coors Field. I don’t hesitate to target pitchers against the Rockies when they are on the road. Roark isn’t my favorite pitcher of the slate, but he has decent upside, his price is affordable, and his ownership should be reasonable.