DFS Alerts
In a Class of his Own
Cole has found a new home in Houston. He’s always had the talent, the Pirates just weren’t able to turn him into an elite pitcher. Perhaps some of that was on Cole as well, but so far he is looking great as a member of the Astros. In his first two starts of the season, he has a 1.56 SIERA with a massive 43% strikeout rate. He’s pitching with confidence and for someone like Cole, that can be half the battle. The Rangers have some some good hitters in their lineup, but they are an offense that isn’t afraid to swing and miss. He is the top pitching option of the slate, even though it feels a little gross paying this price for Gerrit Cole.
Middle of the Order + Cheap = Value Play
Calhoun is a guy that I tend to roster a lot, mostly because he’s cheap and bats in the middle of the order for a good offense. The Angels sit just behind the Red Sox for the highest implied run total on the slate and Calhoun should continue to rack up valuable at bats hitting fifth against Jason Hammel. It’s notable that Kauffman could be a tad friendlier to hitters tonight as temps are relatively warm (70’s) and winds are blowing out to left (15+ mph). Those conditions, and Kauffman in general, play better for right handed batters but any sort of an increase in the Angels overall offensive projection is good for Calhoun from an individual stand point as he’ll benefit from more AB’s + increased RBI opportunities.
Cheap Plug
Kyle Seager is going to be a frequent value play option throughout the year because of the position he plays. With Manny Machado soaking up SS eligibility now, third base has been left relatively barren in the mid-salary range (although I do like Anthony Rendon quite a bit for Friday’s slate against Kyle Freeland). Historically, Seager is an average hitter that does a good job at not striking out and putting the ball in play – there’s not a ton more you can ask for at his price tags.
One of Two Outcomes
You know what you’re going to get with Domingo Santana – either a strikeout or a hard hit ball. We also know that Santana crushes LHP (career 130 wRC+, .218 ISO). So the debate isn’t as much of “Is Santana a good play for his price?” but rather “Can I play Santana over Ryan Braun on FD?” And my somewhat hot take of an answer is….yes! Santana is an easy play over Braun on DK where he is $1,600 less but it’s a legit dilemma on FD where there’s only a $100 difference between the two. In all reality, Santana vs Braun is essentially a coin flip so the easy tout answer here is to play the higher owned Braun in cash and the lower owned Santana in GPP. With that said, I give Santana the slight edge and have no problem playing him over Braun in FD cash if you have the extra $100 to spare.
Bombs Away!
The Red Sox are not going to be a sneaky stack tonight, not against a gas can in Chris Tillman that was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. There will be ownership on this team. A way that I like to differentiate my stacks in these scenarios is to play the cheaper hitters. Everyone will be playing Mookie Betts, but you can leverage that ownership by fading Betts in your stack and taking other Boston hitters. Now, you need Betts to have a poor game and everyone else to hit well, but that is possible — and it’s a strategy that often gets over-looked in GPPs. Give the 3 through 6 hitters in this Boston lineup some love tonight, as that is where I will focus a lot of my stacks (though you might still want to include some Mookie Betts if you are building multiple lineups).
Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez
The Overlooked Stack
I love finding diamond in the rough stacks, and my risk/reward team tonight will be the Mariners. While Andrew Triggs has some talent and could be a solid pitcher for the A’s long-term, I am not fully convinced that he is there yet. The Mariners lineup is pretty similar to what they rolled out a year ago, and they scored 11 runs in one of their meetings against Triggs and company. I will likely stick to the top and middle of the order here, but even the big bats like Segura and Seager won’t cost you a ton of salary. Cano is the only “expensive” one. The primary benefit here is that you will likely get all the Mariners at about 5% ownership this evening. There is plenty of risk, especially in a relatively pitcher-friendly park, but I like the GPP upside.
The Top Friday Night Stack
Don’t get sucked in by the name brand of Cole Hamels. At this stage of his career, he is very much a below average major league pitcher. He doesn’t strike nearly as many hitters out as he used to, and he allowed a 38% hard contact rate to RHBs a year ago. He allowed a wOBA over 100 points higher to righties compared to lefties a year ago, and he hasn’t shown any signs of improvement so far in 2018. That improvement is not likely to come against a Houston squad that has a ton of dangerous bats that hit from the right side. Load up your Houston stacks tonight if you are spending at the skill positions.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman As Kuhl As The Other Side of The Pillow
Rule 1: Roster skilled starting pitchers. Rule 2: If skilled starting pitchers are unavailable (or way too expensive), roster whomever is pitching against the Miami Marlins. Rule 2 struggled a bit to start the season as the Marlins mysteriously gave Cubs starting pitchers a fit. Despite that successful opening weekend for the Marlins offense, their numbers against right handed pitching remain atrocious to start the season. They have the fourth worst wRC+ (63) to go along with the fifth highest strikeout rate (25.8%). The Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals of the night (3.8) and Kuhl has a strong matchup in terms of run prevention and should be able to rack up a few strikeouts along the way.
Tonight's Top Arm
Gerrit Cole is clearly the top option again tonight, as he was the last time he took the mound. He is showing new life for his new team, and he has struck out 11 batters in each of his first two starts. Those 22 strikeouts through two games are the most by any Astros pitcher in their first two starts… ever. While that doesn’t necessarily mean a whole lot, Cole should thrive on a new team, which has a philosophy of allowing him to use his breaking ball more often. He will certainly have more success here than he did in Pittsburgh, and there are some strikeouts to be had in this Texas lineup. Cole is the top choice if you have the salary to afford him this evening.
Albert Almora scratched, Ian Happ will leadoff
Albert Almora has been scratched for the Cubs this afternoon. Ian Happ will replace him and bat leadoff against Anibal Sanchez.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs Other tagged players: Albert Almora, Anibal Sanchez
Poised for a Breakout Season
Lopez was one of the biggest story lines of March, as he showed a nice bump in his velocity during Spring Training. His rise has continued through the start of the regular season, as he has allowed just one earned run and four total hits in his first two starts. The strikeouts haven’t quite been where I would expect given the bump in velocity, but they should come long-term. I wouldn’t advocate using him in cash games in a difficult matchup against the Twins, but I love the affordable price tag and the GPP potential. Don’t sleep on him, especially as an SP #2 on multi-pitcher sites.
The Rebound
It’s never fun rostering a pitcher who is coming off a game where he allowed 8 earned runs in 1.2 IP but 1) He’s cheap 2) Pitcher’s park 3) He’s cheap 4) Overall poor opposing offense 5) He’s cheap 6) Pitching options suck 7) He’s cheap. All joking aside, Faria makes for a legitimate SP2 option on DraftKings. The Phillies have already seen their implied run total drop nearly half a run and overall have struggled mightily against right handed pitching to start the year (79 wRC+, 27.6 K%). Season long projections have Faria with a healthy K/9 (ZIPS 9.56, Steamer 8.95, THE BAT @ 9.54). Faria’s strikeout abilities combined with a strikeout prone Phillies offense at least give Faria a semblance of a floor – remember, strikeout is king in DFS!
SP2 Is Tough On Friday Night
There are a lot of potential SP2’s tonight, but not a single one that is anything close to a guarantee. The savings between Zack Greinke and Kenta Maeda and Roark leads me down to the Washington pitcher. There’s not much separating him from the next tier down, so I don’t think this is a night to go overboard with any one guy. But, for me, Roark has the best combination of skill set with some upside in a friendly matchup. I have reason to believe from his pitch type changes that his strikeout increase dating back to the second half last year is real, but even if it’s not, we still get elite soft contact with ground balls to righties with an unimposing group of left-handed bats for the Rockies, especially if Charlie Blackmon misses another start.
The World's Best Hitter
It’s really close between Trout and Mookie Betts as my top OF today. On FanDuel, the pricing leads me to Betts, but they are close enough on DK/FDRFT, that I’ll just keep going back to Trout. He is simply the best player in baseball, and he gets another subpar pitcher tonight in Jason Hammel. Hammel is unable to control batted balls, and Trout just continues to hit the ball extremely hard with high contact and good patience. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to homer for the 4th time in 6 games tonight.
Take Advantage Of Mispricing
The FanDuel pricing algorithm is not giving enough credence to Braun’s skills against left-handed pitching. He may be starting to show his age against righties, but he continues to look like an elite hitter against lefties. In 2017 he was out of sight with a 47% hard hit rate and just 9.3% strikeouts. Even in the early going this year his strikeouts are way up to righties, but he has continued making contact and hitting the ball hard against lefties.