DFS Alerts

Caleb Smith struck out eight in his first league start, but brings a 27.1 GB% to Philly.

Caleb Smith unexpectedly dominated the Cubs in his first start (5.1 IP – 4 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 8 K – 23 BF). The strikeouts aren’t much of a surprise. He’s been below 21% at only one stop (five IP min.) of his entire minor league career (2015 16.6 K% AA). The 26 year-old threw 18.1 innings, partially out of the Yankee bullpen last year in his first major league action (20.9 K%). The concerns are about control (has walked 13 of 109 MLB batters faced) and just a 27.1 GB% so far. Fly balls are not much of a problem in Miami, but he’s pitching in a band box in Philly today (50 degrees at best, but 15+ mph blowing out to right-center according to Kevin). Behind Rhys Hoskins (151 wRC+, .439 ISO, 48.4 Hard%, 48.4 FB% vs RHP since last year), Carlos Santana (105 wRC+, .167 ISO) is the low man for ISO vs RHP since 2017 among the first six batters in the order (Scott Kingery had no MLB experience). The Phillies are currently fourth with a 4.64 implied run line. Smith costs just $6K on DraftKings though and could serve as a compliment to a higher priced arm with some strikeout potential to those with some risk tolerance. Nick Pivetta had a 24 K% last season, but with just an 8.7 SwStr%. RHBs had a .409 wOBA with 20 HRs against him last year (41.5 Hard%). More positively, Statcast credits him with an xwOBA (.329) some 33 points below his actual mark this year. However, again, this park may be part of the problem and it’s not going away. Ironically, he struck out just three of 18 batters in his first start despite an 11.0 SwStr%. He faced just six right-handed Atlanta batters (two singles, one HBP). Though two of the first four Marlin bats are left-handed, all of the remaining ones are right-handed against the reverse split today (it actually appears to just be their normal lineup). None of the RHBs have particularly strong numbers against same-handed pitching. Starlin Castro (102 wRC+, .152 vs RHP since last season) appears to be the best of the bunch, though Brian Anderson is off to a hot start overall (166 wRC+, .160 ISO). By virtue of Miami’s 3.86 implied run line and an expectation of some strikeouts, Pivetta is usable at less than $7.5K on either site, but comes with many flaws.

David Price threw seven shutout innings in his first start against a team with a 25.9 K% vs LHP last year

The Tampa Bay at Boston game covers both the only lineup with an implied run line above five runs and below three and a half on the six game main afternoon slate. With both deGrom and Strasburg only available on single game or full day slates, David Price should be an extremely popular pitcher and for good reason. Although he only struck out five of 24 Rays in his first start of the season, he allowed just four hits through seven innings with a 5.2 Hard-Soft%. The outing only took 76 pitches. Price is the most expensive pitcher on either site (and the only one above $10K on DraftKings) against an offense with a 25.9 K% against LHP last year. His price discrepancy is also the largest on the board by $900 this afternoon. Yonny Chirinos is not a prospect, but perhaps the 24 year-old should be. While he averaged a modest 92.8 mph in his first major league outing, four outings in relief against these Red Sox, in which he allowed just two base-runners and struck out three of 15 batters, he generated a strikeout rate between 22 K% and 4 BB% in 141 innings at AAA last season. The major difference this time around is the more hitter friendly confines of Fenway with winds blowing out to right near 25 mph according to Kevin’s early forecast, as well as a bit of a familiarity with the formerly unknown pitcher. He would seem a more capable arm than the 5.32 implied run line suggests. This is not a suggestion to use him because the Rays will likely move to the bullpen early in this one, but does make consideration of Boston bats more difficult. J.D. Martinez is a beast (139 wRC+, .334 ISO vs RHP since last season) and it doesn’t matter who they throw at him, but no other batter in the Boston lineup has a wRC+ above 110 or ISO above .200 against RHP since last year (though only Xander Bogaerts is below a .170 ISO among the first six). Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s.

Flawless Skill Set

There is no weakness in Bryant’s skill set against left-handed pitching. He had more walks than strikeouts, giving him on OBP of.439, and when he sees a ball he likes, he can hit for both average and power. Hitting near the top of this lineup will give him plenty of chances for both runs scored and RBI, and he can always just help himself with his home run power in a good ballpark.

Too Cheap Against This Pitcher

Dickerson is not the type of hitter who will typically end up as a Core Play, but Homer Bailey was so awful against lefties in 2017, this salary is too good to ignore. Bailey had just a 13.9% strikeout rate to go along with a terrible 13% walk rate to right-handed batters. Those low strikeouts raise Dickerson’s contact floor, and he has the power to do damage even in his new home park. He has ISO’s of .220 and .264 over the past two seasons and should have plenty of runners on base in front of him tonight.

Still A Lefty Masher

Jon Lester has declined every season, with no end in sight. Ryan Braun, on the other hand, has seen no drop-off in his skills against left-handed pitching. His 2017 numbers against lefties were elite in every way. He struck out just 9.3% of the time while posting a 47% hard hit rate that led to a .253 ISO and .358 wOBA. He has a high floor with his plate skills and a high ceiling with his power.

Power Upside at Reasonable Prices

There aren’t a ton of great stacks on a short slate tonight, but don’t overlook the Reds. They get a fair matchup against a young lefty in Brault, and the lineup does pack some punch in the middle. I really like Adam Duvall as a value option tonight, as he posted a .293 ISO and .382 wOBA against left-handed pitching a year ago. Joey Votto can also be considered even in a lefty-lefty matchup, and I would round out my Reds stack with a value pick like Suarez.

A Very Interesting Sneaky Stack

I really like the Brewers as a sneaky stack tonight. They have an implied team total of 4.3 runs, which is considerably higher than you would expect against a pitcher like Jon Lester. This is a much improved offense with the additions of Yelich and Cain, and there is plenty of power upside in the RHBs. You can also get a value pick like Hernan Perez, who will likely start this evening. There’s an added bonus for stolen base upside, too, given Lester’s inability to hold runners on base.

The Top Stack on FanDuel

We don’t get the good fortune of picking some Yankees bats on DraftKings or FantasyDraft tonight, but we can take them on FanDuel, where the main slate is starting a half hour earlier on account of this game. The Yankees draw a fine matchup against Andrew Cashner this evening, and while Cashner doesn’t get shelled as often as we think he should, I think the mirage might end this year. In addition, he’s simply no match for this Yankees lineup. Cashner does a decent job of getting ground balls against RHBs, but he had just a 39% ground ball rate against LHBs last year. I’ll start there with Gregorius and Gardner, but the power bats like Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez are also viable parts of a Yankees stack.

Risk/Reward Value at Pitcher

Normally, I wouldn’t go here in a matchup against the Cubs, but our pitching options are limited tonight. Suter did show some flashes last year, and he was very good against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .236 wOBA. That will help him against the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber, assuming both are in the lineup tonight. I expect him to see a bump in his strikeout rate this year with another year of experience under his belt, and he’s a reasonable SP #2 in multi-pitcher formats on a short slate.

All The Lefties Here

On the FanDuel Main Slate, it is imperative to get some Yankees lefties in your lineup against Andrew Cashner. He just doesn’t have the stuff to get through this lineup. Gardner has strong on base skills, with a .367 OBP against right-handed pitching and he still has plenty of power for this ballpark, popping 19 HR against righties in 2017. He is too cheap for a leadoff hitter in this lineup.

The Top Pitching Option on the Board

I could pretty much copy and paste what I wrote about Carlos Martinez yesterday here and apply it to Ray today. It’s a difficult matchup on the road, but Ray is simply the best pitching option on the board on a thin slate of games. You can make a case for Tanaka on FanDuel, but he isn’t on the main slate on DraftKings. Ray has a ton of strikeout upside even when he isn’t at his best, which gives him a reasonable floor despite his inconsistency. For GPPs, the decision is easy given his potential ceiling. I’ll certainly be playing my fair share of him tonight even though he is pitching against my favorite team.

Have To Take The Upside

There is so much risk here, I would prefer not to have to call Ray a Core Play, but on this slate for DK/FDRFT, he is just all we have. Even when he gets shelled, he piles up points with his strikeouts. He had the 4th highest K% in the league last season, and even with his high walks and hard hit troubles, those strikeouts give him a strong floor. There is nobody on this slate who can remotely touch his upside, and everyone has risk. So take the risk on the most talented option.

Play Him When You Can

My favorite game of the day is only appearing on the FanDuel Main Slate, so I’m going to play Tanaka where I have the chance. Yes, there is absolutely home run risk here, but Tanaka’s skills are so strong, I’m fully buying in this season. We saw his strikeouts all the way up to 29.6% in the second half last season, with just 4.6% walks. He had several of the best starts of any pitcher last season down the stretch, and unless the home runs continue at this fluky high level, he looks like a top tier ace, at a second tier price.

Statcast was a fan of Jhoulys Chacin’s contact management last year (.303 xwOBA, 28.3% 95+ mph EV). He has some pretty extreme splits (RHBs 15.4 K-BB%, 3.23 FIP, 2.6 lower aEV and 58 point wOBA last three years), making it surprising that he struggled with batters from either side in his first game. He struck out just one of the 20 batters he faced, allowing a HR to a batter from each side of the plate. Players should at least feel confident in attacking him with all…two of the Cardinals left-handed batters among the first seven names in their batting order tonight. It’s unfortunate that the Cardinals lean predominantly right-handed here, but both Dexter Fowler (122 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Matt Carpenter (134 wRC+, .235 ISO, 42.4 Hard%) are both strong plays to say the least. LHBs had a .338 wOBA (.348 xwOBA) against Chacin last season. Milwaukee is one of the most favorable parks in baseball for left-handed power hitters.

Christian Villanueva has seven home runs in his first 40 career PAs

The San Diego Padres have a board low 3.33 implied run line, which should make Jon Gray one of the more popular pitchers on a five game slate. It makes sense with a huge park upgrade against a lineup with Eric Hosmer and several names many people can’t even pronounce (Asuaje, Szczur). Christian Villanueva is more of a spelling hazard. He hit three HRs last night and now has seven in 40 career PAs, On the road last year, Jon Gray struck out 29.4% of batters, but generated just a 39.5 GB% against RHBs who did make contact away from Coors. Statcast is a fan of Gray’s contact management overall (85.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE). His xwOBA is around 20 points lower than his actual wOBA both overall (.296) and on the road (.311). Villanueva may still be very popular with a cost of just $2.5K on DraftKings and $2K on FanDuel. Eric Hosmer (153 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since last season) is really the only other bat to consider here. Gray did struggle in his first start, lasting just four innings in Arizona, walking three with four strikeouts.