DFS Alerts
Cheap Stack of the Night
One of my favorite things to do is to try and find that “diamond in the rough” stack of the night. On this Friday, that team stack is the Phillies for me. Mike Foltynewicz has a good arm, but he goes haywire at times and really struggles against left-handed hitters. Lefties posted a .307 average and .375 wOBA against him a year ago, and the Phillies can run a lot of lefties out there. The good news is that they are also relatively affordable, especially if Knapp is behind the plate. I like this stack as a low-owned, high-upside GPP option, and the fact that they are playing in the new hitter-friendly park in Atlanta is a nice bonus.
Other tagged players: Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp
Sneaky Power
This is a sneaky power matchup for Maikel Franco who gives you the highest HR probability out of all $3K and under options on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Foltynewicz has struggled with the long ball throughout his entire career (12.6% home run to fly ball ratio) and Franco has the power to take advantage of Folty’s mistakes. Franco is typically only a guy to roster when facing left handed pitching but I’m happy to use him in GPP’s here despite the same handed matchup.
Risk/Reward GPP Appeal
I would not touch Snell at all in a cash game format today, but I do like the intrigue in tournaments. He had an impressive spring in the strikeout department, punching out 27 batters in 17 innings pitched. That upside has always been there, but the command is an issue at times. This isn’t a great matchup against a generally patient Red Sox team, but you will also get Snell at about 3% ownership today. I’ll sprinkle him in on some GPP rosters.
A Solid Starting Pitcher Option
I am generally not a fan of Kyle Hendricks, but he deserves consideration today. He generally doesn’t beat himself, he gets a ton of ground balls when he is on his game, and he draws a great matchup against a Marlins offense that could end up being the worst offense in baseball by the time this season ends. There is value in looking for safety at pitcher, even in GPP formats, and Hendricks certainly brings that to the table in this matchup.
Cheap Pop
It’s yet to be seen how the Dodgers will use Joc against right handed pitching, but he’s cheap enough to take a look at if he does happen to draw a lineup spot similar to what Kemp drew on Opening Day (6th). Cueto is not a pitcher we’re looking to target aggressively but Joc’s career .232 isolated slugging versus right handed pitching makes for a strong cheap filler in GPPs.
Leadoff Man for an Explosive Offense
The Yankees are an offense that we will be able to target all season. They obviously have the big three power hitters, but their presence is great for the rest of the lineup as well. Brett Gardner should score a ton of runs this season and he will regularly see five at-bats in games thanks to the run production of this lineup. Gardner is cheap, he’s a consistent producer, and he draws a favorable matchup against Aaron Sanchez.
Buyer Beware
I felt it necessary to touch on Caleb Smith, as depending on which projection system you’re using he is going to pop as a strong pt/$ play. Let’s be clear – Smith is popping because he is so darn cheap, not because of any sort of elite skill-set. As with any young pitcher, there is a lot of unknown here, but this isn’t the spot to gamble on the fella in a tough matchup against one of the top offenses in baseball. If going cheap at pitcher, take a look at Tyler Anderson, Nicholas Pivetta, and Foltynewicz (that’s my order of preference).
RBI Potential in a Potent Offense
The Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball. All of the attention is on the three-headed monster — Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez, but the rest of their lineup is viable thanks to the fact that this offense is going to score a ton of runs. Didi Gregorius should bat in the middle of the lineup when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. Tonight they square off against Aaron Sanchez, who allowed a .366 xwOBA to left-handed hitters last season.
Great Matchup and a Good Ballpark
Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball. He can hit for average and for power, which is rare in this day and age. His home ballpark (SunTrust) favors left-handed hitters, especially when it comes to home run production. The Braves draw an exploitable matchup tonight against Nick Pivetta, who finished the 2017 season with an ERA over 6.00 and a hard contact rate allowed of 35%.
Revenge is Sweet
On paper, there isn’t anything flashy about Jhoulys Chacin. He’s an average major league pitcher that finished the 2017 season with a 4.63 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 20%. While those are far from elite numbers, that doesn’t mean that we can’t target him under the right circumstances. Tonight he faces his former team (Padres) in a pitcher-friendly ballpark (Petco). The projected lineup for San Diego had a combined 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season.
Strikeout Is King
Strikeout is king in MLB DFS and Pivetta gives you the highest strikeout upside of all the value pitchers available for Friday night’s action. In his first taste of Big League action, Pivetta posted a strong 24% strikeout rate over 133 innings pitched (26 games started) last year. He posted double digit strikeouts on two separate occasions. There are a few warts here as the Braves don’t strikeout a bunch as a team and the jury is still out on just how Sun Trust will play as a park (thought is it will favor hitters despite being largely neutral last year), but Pivetta gives you some decent upside for a cheap tag.
Too Cheap for the Matchup
Houston lefties are in as good a spot as anyone tonight against Doug Fister, who has extreme splits. Fister loses his ground ball ability and allows nearly 40% hard contact to left-handed batters. Reddick’s plate discipline alone puts him in play at this salary, coming off a 2017 season with a 12.1% strikeout rate and .363 OBP. Add in his 43% fly balls and strong lineup spot on this top offense, and he is a near lock for me at this salary.
Too Good of a Matchup
It’s a tough call between Price and Kyle Hendricks for me, as both guys have very nice matchups in Florida. I’ll side with Price despite his higher risk, as he has more upside and is one year removed from being a safe, trustable ace. All reports out of spring were that he is a full health and a 12:3 K:BB ratio in spring back that up. Tampa projects to be one of the weakest lineups in the league against left-handed pitching, giving him a shot at some easy innings. Even if it takes him a while to build up to full innings, he should get enough to pay off this salary.
The Highest Upside Pitcher
Ray is riskier than I’d typically like to go for a Core play, but his upside is so far ahead of the rest of this field, while his salary is not, that he comes in as my top play. His 32.8% strikeout rate in 2017 was the 4th best mark in the league, and he had 10 starts of double digit strikeouts. If he gets even a little help from the humidor in Chase Field, there is a lot to like here. On DK especially, he is way too cheap.
The Top Righty Bat in a Loaded Lineup
The Cubs have one of the highest projected run totals against young Caleb Smith. Smith may develop into a respectable pitcher, but he’s only in the majors due to the Marlins lack of depth. Bryant was elite in every way against left-handed pitchers in 2017, with a 15.3% K rate, 19.7% walks and a .405 wOBA. The Cubs should be able to turn this lineup over and over with Bryant right in the middle of the action.