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Just Play The Best
Trout had a rough Opening Day, so now that’s out of the way! He faces an average pitcher in Sean Manaea, but one who has allowed a lot of hard contact to right-handed batters in his young career. Trout struck out just 15 times while collecting 23 walks against lefties, which was good for a .443 OBP in 2017. His ISO dipped last year against LHP, but he was over 40% hard hits in 2015-2016 and has no holes in his game. I prefer him over a typical lefty-masher whose skills drop off once a righty comes in from the bullpen.
Mike Zunino (stiff side) scratched Thursday; Mike Marjama replaces
Zunino has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not play in Thursday’s matchup with the Cleveland Indians. He’ll be replaced at catcher by Mike Marjama, who will slot directly into Zunino’s eighth spot in the batting order, leaving the remainder of the Mariners lineup intact as they face off with Indians ace Corey Kluber this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Marjama
Kike Hernandez had a 144 wRC+ and .309 ISO vs LHP last season, Ty Blach struck out just 10% of batters
Ty Blach is a strange choice to start your first game of the season. He struck out just 10.6% of batters with an ERA and estimators all around five. He did, however, generate both a wOBA and xwOBA below .330 due to an ability to generate weak contact (3.7% Barrels/BBE is second best among Opening Day pitchers). With Kershaw, Kluber, and the humidor on the slate, the Dodger lineup may be the best option for offense on the late slate. Surprisingly absent from the lineup is Austin Barnes, who mashed lefties last season, but Kike Hernandez (144 wRC+, .309 ISO) is another affordable favorite, who bats cleanup tonight. Logan Forsythe (138 wRC+) bats eighth, Chris Taylor (122 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP) leadoff, Yasiel Puig, who struggled against southpaws (61 wRC+, .092 ISO) bats third, and Matt Kemp (108 wRC+, .211 ISO) bats sixth.
Other tagged players: Ty Blach, Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Logan Forsythe, Yasiel Puig
Arizona humidor could lead to some under-valued pitchers early on
Nobody can know for sure what effect the humidor will have in Arizona, but it’s going to dampen the offensive environment to some degree. Assuming early season pitchers will be priced in part for what the park has done instead of what it’s now expected to do, there may be some opportunities to find potentially under-valued pitchers and that starts on Opening Day. Jon Gray did not exactly shine in March (14 ER in 21.2 IP), but he did strike out 22 batters. Further, his 24.3 K% came with just an 8.8 SwStr% in 2017. However, he excelled at generating weak contact (.296 xwOBA, 85.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE) and there is some evidence that he pitched differently at home than he did on the road, where his strikeout rate was 4.4 points higher. Gray is just $7.8K on FanDuel/$6.5K on DraftKings in what may be a neutral park now or close to it. On the other side, Patrick Corbin had a 23.7 K% and 51.3 GB% over his last 20 starts of 2017. He maintained an ERA with estimators below three and a half pitching in one of the most difficult run environments in baseball over that stretch with a hard hit rate below 30%. For the season, his .314 xwOBA was 27 points below his actual one. The Rockies are historically awful on the road. Corbin takes the platoon advantage away from perhaps their most legitimate hitter, while Nolan Arenado has a career 101 wRC+ on the road against LHP. Corbin costs less than $7K on either site.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Jon Gray, Nolan Arenado Corey Kluber posted a 32.5 K-BB% and -0.8 Hard-Soft% in 166.1 IP from June on
Corey Kluber is coming off a legendary run in which he posted a 32.5 K-BB% and -0.8 Hard-Soft% in 166.1 IP from the beginning of June on, going at least seven innings in 17 of 23 starts. His estimators support an ERA well below three, while his xwOBA (.248) supports an incredibly low wOBA as well. The Mariners have a formidable, but aging lineup and face Kluber in a very pitcher friendly park in Seattle. Clayton Kershaw dealt with continuing back issues last season, dropping his K-BB all the way to 25.3%, his lowest mark since 2013. While his estimators were a bit above his actual 2.31 ERA, Statcast supports an xwOBA (.253) eight points below his actual one. His 84.6 mph aEV and 26.5% 95+ mph EV are both top two marks on the board and he did not allow a run this spring in 21.1 innings with 23 strikeouts. It’s a nice spot against the Giants, who have added a couple of solid RHBs in Longoria and McCutchen, but they have a lot of ground to make up with just an 81 wRC+ on the road and vs LHP last season. Extremely expensive, but rightfully so, Kluber and Kershaw, as expected, are top pitchers on both the late and larger slates of which they are a part today.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw Aaron Nola had a 2.64 DRA and .276 xwOBA last season and costs less than $10K on either site
Aaron Nola has a 3.48 SIERA over the last two calendar years. Of all of today’s Opening Day studs, only Noah Syndergaard can match that and boast a ground ball rate above 50% also. Even though most of his estimators meet his ERA around three and a half, his 2.64 Deserved Run Average is nearly a run below and his .276 xwOBA is 23 points below his actual mark. He has a 31.4 Z-O-Swing% (a potential measure of deception) that is fourth best among today’s pitchers. According to many of the advanced statistics, he’s not far away from many of the elite pitchers in the game. Yet, he costs less than $10K on either site ($8.8K on FanDuel) facing an improving, but still rebuilding Atlanta team that is holding one of it’s best hitters down for service time reasons. Freddie Freeman (162 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last season) is absolutely a legitimate threat, but also probably the only bat to fear in this lineup. Nola has a chance to be one of Opening Day’s top values.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman RHBs had a .355 wOBA and 21.2 Hard-Soft% against Clayton Richards last season
Clayton Richard keeps LHBs grounded (.277 wOBA, 64.2 GB% career) better than anybody in the league. In fact, his overall xwOBA (a league average .320) was 43 points below his actual wOBA last year. However, RHBs pummel him (.355 wOBA, 21.2 Hard-Soft% last year). While he pitches at home in a favorable park on Opening Day, the Brewers have done more to upgrade their offense than perhaps any team this off-season and that includes new leadoff man Lorenzo Cain, who has a career 125 wRC+ against LHP. Domingo Santana (125 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP last season) and Ryan Braun (107 wRC+, .208 ISO) both carry reasonable price tags on either site as well in a favorable spot.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Clayton Richard Chris Archer's 89 mph average exit velocity is the highest of any pitcher today, J.D. Martinez hammers heat
Chris Archer is generally not a pitcher players look to oppose, but along with all those strikeouts comes a lot of hard contact. In fact, his 89 mph aEV is higher than any other pitcher on the mound on Opening Day. He also was said to be dealing with a minor forearm issue last week. While Archer is a bit better against RHBs (.287 wOBA last year) than LHBs (.326 wOBA), his 27 HRs were almost perfectly evenly distributed last year. Considering it’s unlikely a lot of players will be rostering Boston bats, Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) and J.D. Martinez (147 wRC+, .351 ISO) may be worth a look. Additionally, according to Plate IQ, Archer throws his fastball a bit above 94 mph on average. On heaters of that speed, Martinez had a .553 wOBA last season (.677 xwOBA). He had a .334 wOBA (.518 xwOBA) against Archer’s other favored pitch, the slider. Martinez can rarely be said to be a poor play with lower ownership expectations.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Chris Archer LHBs have a career wOBA 75 points higher than RHBs against Julio Teheran
Julio Teheran did increase his strikeout rate to league average in the second half last season, but that seems to be his upside at this point, league average. While that’s not entirely useless at the right cost in the right spot, the Philadelphia offense should be improved this year. Teheran only had a 19 point gap between his wOBA against left-handed and right-handed batters last year, but for his career it’s 75 points in favor of LHBs. The top of the Phillies’ order has some reasonably priced LHBs in Cesar Hernandez (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Carlos Santana (123 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Nick Williams (116 wRC+, .205 ISO), while RHB Rhys Hoskins just mashed everybody (161 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Cesar Hernandez, Julio Teheran, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins Chase Anderson had estimators much higher than his ERA, but a .273 xwOBA
Chase Anderson had a career high 23.4 K% and 10.2 SwStr% and although his estimators were well above his 2.74 ERA due to an 80.6 LOB% and 8.6 HR/FB in power friendly park, Statcast was more of a believer with a .273 xwOBA and 84.4 mph aEV. Batters from either side had a wOBA below .300 and Anderson has a career reverse split. While the Padres added this season’s most expensive free agent and has a fine young crop of players, they’re not there yet and this is not a lineup to be feared. Petco is still a pitcher’s park. Jose Pirela (113 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Wil Myers (108 wRC+, .225 ISO) are the biggest threats against same-handed pitching, though Manuel Margot (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) is a speedster, who some see gaining power and having a breakout year in 2018.
Other tagged players: Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot White Sox have several batters (Moncada, Garcia, Abreu, Castillo) who handle LHBs well
Danny Duffy can pitch to RHBs, as a 10 strikeout performance against the Yankees last May exhibited, a game in which he threw as many sliders as fastballs. This is not something pitchers often do without the platoon advantage, but it worked for him. One might think he’s in a premium spot against the rebuilding White Sox, but RHBs have a career .333 wOBA against him (.329 last year) and this team is not bereft of lefty-mashers. Yoan Moncada (118 wRC+, .212 ISO), Avisail Garcia (124 wRC+, .184 ISO), Jose Abreu (127 wRC+, .239 ISO) comprise the top of the order and Welington Castillo (147 wRC+, .226 ISO) debuts in the sixth spot. Adding to the concern for Duffy, he left his last start with shoulder stiffness, though he proclaims himself good to go now.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada, Welington Castillo, Danny Duffy James Shields had a .349 xwOBA last season, but had a league average 14.3 K-BB% and 31.4 Hard% last 10 starts
The immediate inclination is to target James Shields with your daily fantasy lineup, but he’s facing a poor lineup with five RHBs, a side which he was competent against last year according to Plate IQ (3.58 xFIP, 23.2 K%) and it’s difficult to call more than one or two of those RHBs even average, especially with the late loss of Sal Perez. LHBs are more interesting with a higher xFIP (4.22) and just a 16.7 K% (12.1 BB%), but just a 10.6 Hard-Soft% vs 17.5% vs RHBs. Also consider, Shields had a 14.3 K-BB% and 31.4 Hard% over his last 10 starts. However, he still had an overall .349 xwOBA with most of his ERA estimators hovering around five. Mike Moustakas(119 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Lucas Duda (126 wRC+, .298 ISO) were the most prominent bats in the lineup against RHP . Whit Merrifield (104 wRC+, .163 ISO) was competent. They bat two through four in the order this afternoon, convenient for a nice little mini-stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas Few remaining weather concerns in Kevin's updated Opening Day forecast
There have already been two games cancelled, but the good news is that Kevin’s latest update foresees few remaining issues. The worst of it gets a YELLOW in Atlanta, but he believes the Phillies and Braves should get most of the action in before the rain arrives. Showers are also possible in NY(NL), BAL, and TEX, but are not too much of a concern. Players can see Kevin’s entire report on the Weather page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Thursday's PIT-DET game postponed due to rain
The Opening Day matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers on Thursday has been postponed due to impending inclement weather. The two teams have already announced that today’s game will be rescheduled for Friday at 1:10 ET, presumably featuring the previously confirmed Opening Day starting pitchers, Ivan Nova and Jordan Zimmermann.
As reported by: the Pittsburgh Pirates via Twitter Can't Avoid The Best
As we’ve reached Opening Day, I just can’t leave Trout off the Core Plays list. This is the best hitter in the league, and facing a guy in Kendall Graveman who struck out just 14.5% of RHB in 2017. Graveman’s lone skills are ground balls and limiting hard contact. Hard contact and fly balls are not an issue for Trout, with his 40% hard hit rate and 46% fly balls leading to a .359 ISO and .450 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2017. Between Trout and Stanton, paying up in the OF looks like the way to go on Opening Day.