DFS Alerts
Luis Severino had a .243 xwOBA away from Yankee Stadium last year; Blue Jays had a 90 wRC+ vs RHP
Luis Severino’s 22.9 K-BB% last season was fifth best in the majors. Want some more impressive numbers? His .266 wOBA was supported by a .265 xwOBA and that improved .243 away from Yankee Stadium. His changeup became a weapon, giving him a formidable third pitch and bringing his game to a new level, one that few pitchers reach. The Blue Jays bring a 90 wRC+ against RHP last year into this game with their biggest off-season moves being Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk. Perhaps a healthy Josh Donaldson is their biggest upgrade, but this is no longer an offense to be feared. With Scherzer off the board and Kershaw and Kluber on the night slate, Luis Severino, along with Chris Sale, are the top arms on the board. Sale may be in a better spot in Tampa Bay, but Severino is more than $1K cheaper on either site. J.A. Happ was not a bad pitcher last year by any means, but he is being subpoenaed by the law firm of Judge (149 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP), Stanton (202 wRC+, .441 ISO – Yes that’s a .441 ISO) and Sanchez (131 wRC+, .266 ISO). This is likely to be a combination no left-handed pitcher wants to see this season. Aaron Hicks (140 wRC+, .202 ISO) should not be taken lightly against southpaws either.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Josh Donaldson
Houston Astros had an amazing team 121 wRC+ on the road and 120 wRC+ vs LHP last season.
The Houston Astros had an amazing team 121 wRC+ on the road and 120 wRC+ vs LHP last season. That kind of firepower can make an offensive friendly environment like Texas look like Coors. Cole Hamels is coming off a disappointing, injury plagued year with all of his estimators above 4.5 runs. He had a .335 xwOBA at home last year, 17 points above his actual home wOBA. Perhaps a return to health will precede a return to form, but this is not the spot for him. Houston’s implied run line of 5.06 is near the top of the board and Kevin is calling for wind gusts up to 25 mph blowing out to right-center. That’s not exactly the pull field for RHBs, but it sure doesn’t help Hamels either. Carlos Correa (187 wRC+, .217 ISO), George Springer (165 wRC+, .248 ISO), Jose Altuve (164 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Alex Bregman(160 wRC+, .239 ISO) all crushed LHP last season, while Marwin Gonzalez (115 wRC+, .217 ISO) more than held his own. J.D. Davis has been a popular sleeper pick the last few weeks and has never had a wRC+ below 134 at any stop in the minors. Justin Verlander was an absolute beast for the Astros last season with a 31.7 K-BB% in five regular season starts and a 22.1 K-BB% in 36.2 more post-season innings. He’s followed that up with 24 strikeouts in 22 innings this spring (four ERs). The environment is a bit of a concern (Verlander 33.5 GB% – Texas 17.4 HR/FB at home, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but there should be some strikeouts against a team with a 95 wRC+ and 24.3 K% against RHP last season. He can still return value with a double digit strikeout performance even if a couple leave the yard.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, J.D. Davis, Justin Verlander Jake Odorizzi (30.6 GB%, 8% Barrels/BBE) brings a reverse platoon split into a power boosting park in Baltimore
The Minnesota at Baltimore affair on Opening Day pits two extreme fly ball pitchers against each other. Jake Odorizzi (30.6 GB%) makes his Twins debut. Aside from all of the fly balls, Odorizzi also has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .328 wOBA vs LHBs .284 career). More than 8% of his batted balls were considered Barrels last year and Baltimore is one of the most power friendly parks in baseball for right-handed batters. Odorizzi’s 4.14 ERA last year was bolstered by a .227 BABIP with estimators around a full run higher. While Kevin’s forecast calls for a chance of rain, temperatures are expected to be in the 60s, decent hitting weather. This may be a spot to look at Baltimore bats, as many of their RHBs have had success against RHP, including Tim Beckham (133 wRC+, .206 ISO for Balitmore vs RHP last year), Trey Mancini (126 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP), Jonathan Schoop (111 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Manny Machado (117 wRC+, .203 ISO career vs RHP). On the other side, Dylan Bundy (32.8 GB%) ran both hot and cold over the course of the 2017 season with the overall results quite average. He increased his slider usage in the second half, which led to an increase in his strikeout rate (26.9% vs 18.9% in the first half), but his 88.1 mph aEV last season is fourth highest among all pitchers today in this park. That said, he may have some upside beyond just a $7K cost. Logan Morrison punished RHP with a 137 wRC+ and .298 ISO last season, but among members of the Twins last year in today’s lineup, cleanup hitter Eddie Rosario had a 135 wRC+ and .268 ISO vs RHP and is fairly affordable on either site.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Jake Odorizzi, Tim Beckham, Trey Mancini, Dylan Bundy, Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison Jon Lester had a .301 xwOBA 25 points below his actual wOBA.
Jon Lester is your plug and play pitcher on the early slate on Opening Day. You’re likely to hear that often for opposing pitchers in Miami. It’s one of the more pitcher friendly environments to begin with and Lester eliminates the platoon advantage for the remaining Miami power threat (Justin Bour 83 wRC+ career vs LHP). Lester is coming off a down year with an ERA and estimators all around four, but his xwOBA (.301) was 25 points below his actual one with an 85.4 mph aEV and 23.6 K%, suggesting that the tank is not empty just yet. Lewis Brinson was “the get” for Miami this off-season (in the Yelich trade). He’s posted a 140+ wRC+ and .230+ ISO in over 400 PAs at AAA for the Brewers since 2016 and is a bat of interest here if he bats near the top of the lineup. He’s fairly cheap on either site ($2.1K on FanDuel). Alternatively, Jose Urena is just not a very daily fantasy friendly pitcher. He can’t be rostered due to a 15.6 K%, but it’s difficult to load up against him because he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (85.4 mph aEV). However, his .340 wOBA was 19 points above his actual league average wOBA (.321) and players are probably going to want at least some Chicago exposure even in a difficult park with questionable weather conditions in Detroit. Top Cubs’ bats against RHP last year were Kris Bryant (145 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .230 ISO), predictably. Ian Happ (118 wRC+, .286 ISO), Willson Contreras (114 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (109 wRC+, .276 ISO) all exhibit strong power numbers as well.
Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Lewis Brinson, Jose Urena, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber Noah Syndergaard has a career 25.5 K% at home, .259 wOBA and 26.5 K-BB% against RHBs
Noah Syndergaard is your early slate stud. He missed most of last season with a muscle tear, but showed no ill effects this spring, striking out 23 in 20 innings (just three earned runs). The rare pitcher to combine elite strikeout with a ground ball rate above 50%, his 2.89 SIERA over the last two calendar years sits behind only Clayton Kershaw on the full day board. Additionally, his K-BB is five points higher at home (25.5%) for his career. The St Louis offense picked up Marcell Ozuna, who is certainly an upgrade, but they still lean very heavily right-handed. Thor has dominated RHBs to the tune of a .259 wOBA and 26.5 K-BB% over the course of his career and should be seeing some improved defense on the left-side of the infield with Amed Rosario and Todd Frazier. St Louis has a 3.21 run expectancy that is lowest of the six teams on the early slate. Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter both had a 125+ wRC+ and .200+ ISO against RHP last year with reasonable price tags on either site for those looking to go super-contrarian. On the other side, Carlos Martinez is certainly a usable pitcher on a three game slate when the top two choices (Syndergaard and Lester) are likely to be more highly owned, consider that he has the highest price differential on the board ($3.2K) for the entire day and significant issues with LHBs (.337 wOBA last season, .333 career), including a double digit walk rate with a hard hit rate above 32% (both last year and career). Brandon Nimmo is a very interesting and affordably priced play. He had a 136 wRC+ and .193 ISO vs RHP last season (166 PAs), including a 16.3 BB%. He’s coming off a .984 OPS in 70 spring PAs. Jay Bruce (128 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP last year) and Asdrubal Cabrera (95 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP) may be worth a look at similar costs in the top half of the batting order.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler Weather concerns could dampen outlook for highest total on early slate (Pittsburgh @ Detroit)
MLB DFS players who want to get the season started early should have some pretty clear choices on the early three game slate…until looking at Kevin’s early weather forecast. The Pittsburgh @ Detroit game matching up Ivan Nova against Jordan Zimmermann is currently graded ORANGE, the lone concern on this board. At best, temperatures are expected to be in the 40’s, not ideal offensive conditions. The good news is that recent information suggests that Detroit may be one of the more unlikely offensive friendly parks in the league. And despite weather concerns, this game has the highest total of the three early games (9.5 runs) with Pittsburgh claiming the highest team total (4.91 runs) Ivan Nova had a significant problem with LHBs last season (.361 wOBA, 16 HRs). Overall, his 91.3 Z-Contact% is highest on the board. He fools nobody and gets hit fairly hard too (87.9 mph aEV). A sneaky value play could be Jeimer Candelario, who had a 135 wRC+ in 90 plate appearances for Detroit against RHP last season (though just a .128 ISO and .377 BABIP). The cost is low enough that not a lot of production is necessary. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann had a 26.1 Hard-Soft% last season, second worst on the board for the entire day. He had no real platoon split with a .354 xwOBA and .362 Home xwOBA, generating an 88.6 mph aEV overall. Corey Dickerson had a 113 wRC+ with 24 HRs against RHP last season. Only Starling Marte (116 wRC+, 260 PAs) was better against RHP among those in the Pittsburgh lineup. Josh Bell (111 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Adam Frazier (99 wRC+) were both competent though. Colin Moran is fairly cheap and is one of those guys who made some adjustments to get the ball in the air more last year. He bats eighth however. The real wild card may be Gregory Polanco, who really struggled through an injury plagued season (shoulder) with just an 89 wRC+ against RHP last year. When healthy (as he appears to be), he’s one of those guys where the ball just jumps off his bat. He costs just $2.2K on FanDuel.
As reported by: MLB.com Other tagged players: Josh Bellamy, Colin Moran, Jeimer Candelario, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Jordan Zimmermann, Ivan Nova Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds Postponed
We have our first postponement of the 2018 season even before the first pitch. Washington at Cincinnati will be pushed from Thursday to Friday. Unfortunately, this takes both Max Scherzer AND Homer Bailey off the board. Bailey was likely to be a primary target for DFS players with a double digit walk rate last year and 15.9 HR//FB at home. He’s followed that up with seven HRs allowed in 18 spring training innings and his .361 xwOBA is highest on the board with his actual wOBA 17 points higher. Scherzer’s absence would seem less of a blow on a star studded Opening Day board, but remember that Noah Syndergaard is on the early slate, while both Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber only appear on either late or all day slates. This could potentially push Chris Sale’s ownership through the roof, although Luis Severino could be considered in, or at least near that class now and he is still available on the main board.
As reported by: Cincinnati Reds Other tagged players: Homer Bailey Jake Arrieta walked five in first post-season start, LHBs had a .354 wOBA this year
Both the Cubs (4.81) and Dodgers (4.69) sport implied run lines about a run higher than the ALCS participants.While Jake Arrieta occasionally generated strikeouts and weak ground balls this year, he struggled to do both of those things often at the same time this season. Then, when it looked like he might be putting it all together, he suffered a hamstring injury that limited him to just 10.1 September innings. Despite not allowing a single run, his only post-season outing was not pretty, as he walked five of the 20 batters he faced with four strikeouts and just three ground balls. While the lack of faith Joe Maddon must have in the Chicago bullpen at this point may be the one positive for Arrieta in terms of workload tonight, he’d have to pitch exceptionally well with his team facing elimination. Arrieta had some extreme splits this season. He stifled RHBs with a .266 wOBA, 48.7 GB%, and 26.9 Hard%, but LHBs had a .354 wOBA, 40.5 GB% and 32.7 Hard%. While Corey Seager’s absence makes this Dodger lineup a bit less dangerous from the LH side, Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO vs RHP) may be the highest upside bat on the board. The lineup for LA is not yet confirmed, but Curtis Granderson has three career HRs and a 1.081 OPS in 40 career PAs against Arrieta, more than twice as many PAs as any other Dodger, though Andre Ethier had a 113 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs RHP this season if he gets the nod. Ethier homered last night and costs the minimum on FanDuel. Yasmani Grandal (106 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) also has a HR and a double in 11 PAs against Arrieta, though he did not start last night either. Kevin’s forecast calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with 25 mph gusts out towards center, which could give a generous boost to power hitters in this game. It appears to be Jim Wolf’s turn to call balls and strikes tonight according to the umpire rotation available at TrueBlueLA.com (a popular Dodgers blog). According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 287 games, batters have a 19.4 K% and 8.1 BB% with Wolf calling pitches. That’s good for a 0.95 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost, which could potentially add more value to the bats in this game.
As reported by: True Blue LA Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Andre Ethier, Yasmani Grandal, Jake Arrieta Albert Almora (137 wRC+ vs LHP) leads off against Alex Wood, who hasn't pitched in post-season
Both the Cubs (4.81) and Dodgers (4.69) sport implied run lines about a run higher than the ALCS participants. At one point, Alex Wood was a dark horse Cy Young candidate before losing two miles per hour off his fastball and running a second half 3.89 ERA, 4.76 FIP and 4.19 xFIP all well above his first half numbers. While the Dodgers are up three games to none, the condition likely limiting his workload tonight is that he hasn’t pitched in the post-season yet (last start on 9/26) and has only thrown 91 pitches once since the end of August. Best case scenario would seem six innings tonight. Though batters from either side had a wOBA in the .260s with a K-BB between 17 and 19%, there was a significant split in the quality of contact Wood allowed. LHBs had a 59 GB% and stunning 16.8 Hard%, while RHBs had a 50.7 GB% and 32 Hard%. The Cubs have countered this split with Albert Almora (137 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP) at the top of the lineup, while Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward sit. Almora costs $3.3K on DK and just $2.4K on FD. He runs the risk of being removed later in the game, but his spot at the top of the order could get him an extra PA to help compensate. This confirmed Chicago lineup had a .360 wOBA, .190 ISO and 20.8 K% against LHP this year according to PlateIQ but also a 12.6 BB% against southpaws. Kris Bryant (150 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP) is the top bat in the lineup, but from the right-hand side, both Willson Contreras and Javier Baez exceeded a 130 wRC+ and .240 ISO vs LHP this year at a much lower cost. Addison Russell (111 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP) costs $3.4K on either site. Again, it’s questionable how many opportunities they’ll have against LHP tonight, but another factor in their favor is Kevin’s forecast, which calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with 25 mph gusts out towards center. Anthony Rizzo, Russell and Bryant all exceed 10 career PAs against Wood in their career, Bryant (one HR) is the only batter with a HR in his career against him. It appears to be Jim Wolf’s turn to call balls and strikes tonight according to the umpire rotation available at TrueBlueLA.com (a popular Dodgers blog). According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 287 games, batters have a 19.4 K% and 8.1 BB% with Wolf calling pitches. That’s good for a 0.95 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost, which could potentially add more value to the bats in this game.
Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo Masahiro Tanaka leads today's pitchers with a 3.52 SIERA and 25.8 K% this season
Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Masahiro Tanaka has followed up a regular season finale in which he struck out 15 batters with 10 strikeouts of 46 post-season batters in 13 innings with a 52.9 GB%. His 11.9 Hard-Soft% this season was the highest among all four of today’s starters, as was his 4.74 ERA, though his 3.52 SIERA and 25.8 K% (15.1 SwStr%) are actually the best marks among today’s pitchers. Tanaka’s greatest issue was the HR ball (35 allowed) and he did not discriminate. LHBs had a .316 wOBA, 16 HRs, 21.9 K-BB%, 55 GB% and 32.1 Hard%, while RHBs had a .333 wOBA, 19 HRs, 19.2 K-BB%, 45.1 GB% and 31 Hard%. This may play in Houston’s favor with a lineup that leans towards RHBs who handle RHP extremely well. They repeat their Game Three lineup, which has a .354 wOBA, .200 ISO and only a 16.1 K% vs RHP this year. Every batter in the lineup had an ISO above .170 against RHP this year. Only Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann did not exceed both a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP. Carlos Correa and George Springer each have two career HRs against Tanaka in 14 PAs according to Daily Baseball Data. Jose Altuve has one HR in as many PAs. No other Houston batter has more than eight PAs against him, but Josh Reddick and Bregman also have a single HR. With both high strikeout and HR potential, exposure to both sides of this matchup is certainly warranted. Tanaka’s margin for error is difficult to project. The Yankees have the strongest bullpen of the remaining teams and certainly don’t want to go back to Houston facing elimination, though he seems to inspire a bit more confidence than his NLCS counterparts. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin’s forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Josh Reddick Dallas Keuchel struck out a season high 10 Yankees in Game One
Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Both the lower run lines and nature of a series tied at two may mean that the pitchers in this game have a bit longer leash than their NL counterparts, earned by their 2017 post-season resume so far. Dallas Keuchel has struck out 17 of 49 batters with a 57.1 GB% in two game starts, including striking out 10 Yankees in seven shutout innings in Game One of this series. It was one more strikeout than his season high of nine way back in May. He did lead all of today’s starters with a 2.65 DRA, -0.7 Hard-Soft% and 66.8 GB% this season. LHBs had no chance against him this year with a .192 wOBA, 26.5 K-BB%, 72.9 GB% and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. RHBs were a little better (.293 wOBA, 10.1 K-BB%, 65.6 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%), though it’s still hardly an ideal matchup. Today’s confirmed lineup for the Yankees had a .343 wOBA, .210 ISO and 22.9 K% vs LHP this season. From the right side, Aaron Judge (149 wRC+, .265 ISO), Gary Sanchez (131 wRC+, .266 ISO), Aaron Hicks (140 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Todd Frazier (130 wRC+, .345 ISO) all punished LHP this year with Frazier perhaps the stealthiest play, but even Judge a potentially decent value with the highest price tag on the team ($4.4K DK, $3.6K FD). Hicks (17 PAs) and Chase Headley (22 PAs) each have a single HR in their career against Kuechel according to Daily Baseball Data. No other batter in tonight’s lineup has more than 17 PAs or a .550 OPS against him in their career. Keuchel is at his best when he is effective down in the zone and a bit below it. If he’s getting those calls, especially against Judge, it’s going to make things very difficult for the Yankees. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin’s forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.
As reported by: River Ave Blues Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Chase Headley Kyle Hendricks had a 19.0 K-BB% and 51.8 GB% through his final eight starts
Kyle Hendricks may not be the biggest name on the mound tonight, but he finished the season perhaps more strongly than any of today’s four pitchers. Over his last eight starts, he had a 19.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB% and 0.7 Hard-Soft%, continuing that strong work, striking out 13 of 49 batters faced in two NLDS starts with a 50 GB%, though he did allow two HRs. LHBs had a .309 wOBA, 34.1 Hard% and 42.3 GB% compared to a .274 wOBA, 27.4 Hard% and 56.4 GB% for RHBs. The Dodgers have an implied run line of 3.95, within a quarter of a run of each of the three teams behind the Yankees today. He’s certainly not going to have a long leash with the Cubs down two games to none, but with the lack of confidence in this bullpen right now, he should be allowed to remain in the game as long as he pitches well. With neither pitcher in the ALCS game likely to have a particularly long leash, Hendricks is a reasonable mound option by process of elimination at home tonight. Of course, the Dodgers have several potent bats against RHP. Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Yasiel Puig (136 wRC+, .266 ISO) potentially the most dangerous right now. Puig has a 266 wRC+, .438 ISO and 23.8 BB% in the post-season. Justin Turner (125 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP) has the only career HR against Hendricks and also leads the teams with 14 PAs against him. The Dodger lineup has not yet been confirmed. Kevin’s forecast for this game calls for cool, but dry skies with sustained winds out towards center at around 10 mph, a small bump for hitters. Following standard umpire rotation, it would appear that crew chief Mike Winters will call balls and strikes for this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available at RotoGrinders, in 303 opportunities behind the plate, batters had a 20.1 K% and 8.3 BB%. With a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost, he could favor pitchers.
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner Yu Darvish struck out seven of 18 batters in his first post-season start
The crafty Joe Maddon has manipulated his Game Three lineup, likely partially because the offense has struggled a bit, but also likely to take advantage of Yu Darvish’s difficulties against LHBs, who had a .333 wOBA, 16 HRs, and 34.5 Hard% (RHBs .260 wOBA, 11 HRs, 31.6 Hard%). Darvish had an exceptional K-BB hovering around 20% against batters from either side. After finishing the season strong, Darvish struck out seven of the 18 batters he faced in his lone post-season start with five of nine batted balls on the ground. Darvish is the highest cost pitcher and despite his struggles with LHBs, may be the one with the most upside today too. The Cubs have a 4.05 implied run line which is technically third, but with less than a quarter of a run separating all three teams behind the Yankees. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (109 wRC+, .276 ISO) are the key LHBs against Darvish. Schwarber costs $3.3K or less on either site to go along with his lineup bump into the second spot in the order. Ben Zobrist (94 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) costs between $3.2K and $3.5K on either site and is the only player in the lineup with more than four PAs against Darvish. In 14 attempts, he does not have an extra-base hit. Kevin’s forecast for this game calls for cool, but dry skies with sustained winds out towards center at around 10 mph, a small bump for hitters. Following standard umpire rotation, it would appear that crew chief Mike Winters will call balls and strikes for this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available at RotoGrinders, in 303 opportunities behind the plate, batters had a 20.1 K% and 8.3 BB%. With a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost, he could favor pitchers.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist Sonny Gray struggled in his first post-season outing, 11 HRs in 11 starts for Yankees
Sonny Gray has not pitched since October 5th when Cleveland touched him up for three runs in 3.1 innings. He faced 17 batters, with four walks, two strikeouts and a HR allowed. Only 40% of his contact was on the ground. As a Yankee, he allowed 11 HRs in 11 starts with just an 11.5 K-BB% and 47.3 GB%. With Sabathia and Warren eating up eight innings last night, the Yankee bullpen should be well-rested and ready to relieve Gray early should his struggles continue, which makes him difficult to consider, especially on a single pitcher site. The specific lineup being employed by the Astros today had a .356 wOBA, .200 ISO and just a 16.1 K% vs RHP this season. Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO v RHP) each have a single HR against Gray. Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) is the only player in the lineup with more than 20 career PAs against him, though only Carlos Correa is below Altuve’s .767 OPS against Gray according to DailyBaseballData.com. Alex Bregman (109 wRC+, .274 ISO), Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO) and McCann are the only batters in the lineup below a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Price tags for most of those bats except for Josh Reddick ($3.8K DK, $2.8K FD) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3K DK) are fairly high. Gurriel has been tearing up post-season pitching (186 wRC+, 7.1 K%, .154 ISO, but a .458 BABIP). While it’s expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn’t expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight’s home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he’s leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).
As reported by: Daily Baseball Data Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Yulieski Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Sonny Gray Lance McCullers starts, but has not throw more than 83 MLB pitches since July
The Yankees have the highest run line on the board (4.59) against Lance McCullers, who has all the talent in the world (25.8 K%, 12.0 SwStr%, 4.25 ERA, 3.41 SIERA, 3.52 DRA), but is a difficult sell even at a lower than normal cost, due to injury issues that have plagued him throughout the season. He hasn’t thrown more than 83 pitches in a major league outing since July and has thrown just three innings in one post-season outing this month, in which 10 of the 13 batters he faced either struck out or put it on the ground. That’s what he does when he’s on: strikeouts and ground balls. It could be another all-out, short outing with Brad Peacock waiting in the wings to throw multiple innings behind him. Batters from either side put the ball on the ground above 58% of the time with a hard hit rate below 30% against him this year, though RHBs gained an advantage in the peripherals, strangely enough, with a 15.3 K-BB%, .332 wOBA and six of his eight HRs allowed (LHBs 21.5 K-BB%, .267 wOBA). This could mean that Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO, 45.1 Hard%, 42.1 FB%) should be the batter players want, especially at a reduced cost. While all of the attention had been paid to his strikeouts this post-season, he did homer last night and has hit the ball extremely hard (three extra-base hits, including two HRs), when he’s not striking out. Especially notable should be the sizable strike zone called against him, which really makes his post-season results look much worse than the process. Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier and surprise starter Austin Romine are the only three batters in the lineup below a .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Frazier is the cheap choice at 3B today and did have a 101 wRC+ and .173 ISO vs RHP this year. Current Yankee starters have little career data against Lance McCullers (none with a HR or more than nine PAs). While it’s expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn’t expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight’s home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he’s leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).
Other tagged players: Brad Peacock, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier, Austin Romine