DFS Alerts
Corey Kluber leads the slate with a 34.1 K%, 15.6 SwStr%, 2.68 SIERA and 2.05 DRA
Corey Kluber got spanked in Game Two against the Yankees, but is clearly today’s top pitcher considering the questionable health status of both pitchers in the NL game. His 34.1 K% and 15.6 SwStr%, along with a 2.25 ERA, 2.68 SIERA and 2.05 DRA all top today’s board. The Yankees are implied for a slate low 3.09 implied runs with Kevin calling for sustained winds blowing in from right field at 15 mph. Players may still need to utilize a few cheap Yankee bats in order to fit Kluber into their lineup though. LHBs had a .251 wOBA and 31.3 Hard% against him (RHBs .230 wOBA and 26.6 Hard%), making Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP), Didi Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP) and Gregory Bird (71 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) the most ideal salary savors. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) are higher risk plays at a higher cost, but may have lower ownership rates than usual. Tonight’s home plate umpire, Jeff Nelson, is about as neutral as one can get (0.99 K-Boost, 1.00 BB-Boost). In 324 games behind the plate according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.8 K% and 7.9 BB% with him behind the plate.
Other tagged players: Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP) returns to Cleveland lineup against Sabathia
Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP) returns to the Cleveland lineup against C.C. Sabathia for Game Five. Sabathia walked three of the 24 Cleveland batters he faced in Game Two, striking out five, and hitting one. With all hands on deck, it’s unlikely he goes through this order more than twice unless pitching exceptionally well. The Tribe has the only implied run line above four (4.41) on the board. Kevin’s forecast calls for wind blowing in from right sustained at 15 mph, though LHBs don’t hit Sabathia very well anyway (.306 wOBA, two HRs, 58.9 GB%, 14.3 Hard%). While the inclination would be to load up on RH Cleveland bats (.310 wOBA, 19 HRs, 29.9 Hard% against Sabathia this season), it’s almost impossible to do if paying up for Kluber on FanDuel. Francisco Lindor (134 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Ramirez (147 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP) are top plays along with Encarnacion. Austin Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) is the top salary saver on the board. Roberto Perez (110 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP) may be under-valued behind the dish, costing less than $3K on either site. Jackson, Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis all have one career HR against Sabathia with Kipnis having the fewest PAs (17). Jackson, additionally, has three doubles and a triple in 42 career PAs. Tonight’s home plate umpire, Jeff Nelson, is about as neutral as one can get (0.99 K-Boost, 1.00 BB-Boost). In 324 games behind the plate according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.8 K% and 7.9 BB% with him behind the plate.
Other tagged players: CC Sabathia, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Roberto Perez, Francisco Lindor Jake Arrieta allowed five HRs in 10 September innings while dealing with a hamstring issue
Jake Arrieta is pitching under some friendly weather conditions (winds gusting in from right-center up to 25 mph) with his team up two games to one and on the verge of eliminating the Nationals as he gets his first start of the series, but he was limited to just 138 pitches thrown in two starts over the last month due to a hamstring issue and hasn’t pitched at all since September 26th. In three September starts, he pitched 10.1 innings, allowing five HRs, striking out 10 of 48 batters faced. On the season, LHBs had a .354 wOBA, 40.5 GB% and 32.7 Hard% against him (batters from either side had a K-BB around 15%). The Nationals have the second lowest implied run line (3.4) on the board, but are below the Cubs by just two-tenths of a run. This makes both Daniel Murphy (143 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (173 wRC+, .332 ISO vs RHP) solid candidates despite wind conditions and perhaps aided by projected home plate umpire Laz Diaz’s 0.96 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors (available on RotoGrinders). In 311 recorded games behind the plate, batters have a 19.6 K% and 8.0 BB%. Arrieta was very strong against RHBs this season (.266 wOBA, 48.7 GB%, 26.9 Hard%), making it more difficult to pay marginal prices for Trea Turner (116 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Zimmerman (130 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rendon (131 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) when there seem to be better values available, especially if paying up for Kluber tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Umpire Factors Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Jake Arrieta, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon Stephen Strasburg struck out 10 of 26 Cubs in Game One
There are a number of interesting dynamics in play for the Cubs against Stephen Strasburg this afternoon. Taken at face value, Strasburg’s 29.1 K%, 13.0 SwStr%, 2.52 ERA, 3.37 SIERA, and 2.93 DRA are all behind only Corey Kluber on today’s board, after finishing off perhaps his best major league season yet. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but costs $100 more than Kluber on FanDuel after dominating these Cubs in Game One of this series, striking out 10 of 26 batters faced. Chicago’s 3.6 implied run line today is actually second highest on the board though and Strasburg will have a much smaller margin for error due to the Nationals facing elimination in this game. There’s also the questionable status of his health. Tanner Roark was originally scheduled to start this game due to Strasburg feeling “under the weather” the last few days. There’s no doubt that he’s been pressured by the media and potentially even his own team to take the ball here and could be pitching in a weakened state. That makes him a high priced, high risk pitcher, but it could also lower his ownership rate. Additionally, Kevin is calling for some strong winds in from right-center, with gusts up to 25 mph, which is another factor should aid both pitchers in this game. Laz Diaz is expected to be the home plate umpire in this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available right here on RotoGrinders, in 311 games called, batters have a 19.6 K% and 8.0 BB% with him calling balls and strikes. A 0.96 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost make him a bit of a hitter friendly umpire. Ben Zobrist (94 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP), Willson Contreras (114 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Heyward (94 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP) all have a single career HR against Strasburg, but the strong winds will be playing a factor against LHBs. Although LHBs had a 30.6 Hard% against Strasburg this year, compared to 23.8% for RHBs, he stifled batters from either side this season with both having a wOBA below .260 and K-BB above 20%. It’s difficult to find strong plays in this Chicago lineup considering all factors, including Max Scherzer’s potential availability out of the bullpen, perhaps Jon Jay (98 wRC+, .095 ISO vs RHP) could serve as a punt outfielder for just $2.4K on FanDuel.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Stephen Strasburg will replace Tanner Roark as the Nationals' Game 4 starter
Well, after a wild back-and-forth between the Washington Nationals coaching staff and the media, the Nationals have officially announced that Stephen Strasburg will be their Game 4 starter over the previously confirmed starting pitcher, Tanner Roark. This move does alter Thursday’s two-game LDS slate pretty dramatically, as there is now another ace to compete with Corey Kluber in terms of price and projected points. Additionally, with Strasburg on the mound, the Chicago Cubs hitters should see a decrease in projected value output considering the increase in opposing starting pitching caliber from Roark to Strasburg this afternoon.
As reported by: Dan Kolko via Twitter Other tagged players: Tanner Roark
Kyle Schwarber scratched, Jason Hayward will replace him
With Strasburg on the hill for Washington, the Cubs will shift from Schwarber to Heyward in the outfield. This doesn’t have a big impact but Heyward’s power potential isn’t quite as high as Schwarber’s.
Other tagged players: Jason Heyward
NLDS Game 4 between WSH-CHC will be delayed due to rain
The start of Tuesday’s elimination game between the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs will be delayed due to impending inclement weather. There has been estimated start time announced by Major League Baseball but it has already been deemed that Game 4 will not begin at the originally scheduled 5:30 pm EST start time.
As reported by: Mike Berman Corey Seager and Curtis Granderson have multiple HRs against Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke began effectively before running into trouble in the Wild Card game against the Rockies and faces a much more difficult offense in Arizona for this one. While Greinke had a 26.8 K% (12.4 SwStr%) with a 3.20 ERA and 3.48 SIERA (3.00 DRA), his K-BB decreased from 23.6% in the first half of the season to 18% in the second half, while he had a hard hit rate above one-third of batted balls to batters from either side and during either half of the season. Showing almost no split, he still held batters from either side to a wOBA just above .280 with a K-BB a bit above 20%. It’s a difficult run environment to trust Greinke in at a middle of the board price against an offense with the third highest implied run total today (4.57). This specific Dodger lineup has a .361 wOBA and .211 ISO vs RHP with a 20.0 K% against RHP this year, the major surprise being Austin Barnes (147 wRC+, .138 ISO vs RHP) batting sixth instead of Yasmai Grandal, who has two career HRs against Greinke. Corey Seager (120 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP) and Curtis Granderson (114 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP) both have two career HRs against Greinke as well. Chase Utley (97 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP), Justin Turner (125 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP) and Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO vs RHP) each have one. On top of the success of many other batters in this lineup against Greinke, Yasiel Puig had a 136 wRC+ and .266 ISO against RHP as well. It’s going to be difficult for Greinke to find many soft spots here. The roof will be open at Chase Field tonight, which may give hitters a slight additional advantage. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, tonight’s home plate umpire, Gerry Davis has 311 games called in the database with a 19.3 K% and 8.4 BB%, a slight lean towards hitters (0.98 K-Boost, 1.05 BB-Boost).
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Yasiel Puig, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Austin Barnes, Chase Utley, Zack Greinke Tonight's Arizona lineup has a .350 wOBA and .206 ISO vs RHP via PlateIQ
Yu Darvish dominated in his first two starts for the Dodgers (12 IP – 20 K) before struggling mightily through the middle of September before ultimately finishing on a strong note (19.1 IP – 9 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 21 K). With the Dodgers up two games to none, he may have the longest leash of all of today’s pitchers, though his cost is halfway between Scherzer and Severino on either site in what’s probably the most difficult run environment on today’s slate. The Diamondbacks are in the middle of the pack with 4.43 implied runs today. The confirmed Arizona lineup had a .350 wOBA, .206 ISO and 21.8 K% against RHP this year via PlateIQ. The biggest difference in today’s lineup being Ketel Marte (93 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) moving up to second in the order against the RHP. Interesting choice considering his numbers were the worst among righties of all the LHBs in today’s lineup. David Peralta (111 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP) and Jake Lamb (133 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP) may be under-valued in this spot. LHBs had a .333 wOBA, 16 HRs and 34.5 Hard% against Darvish this year. RHBs also had 11 HRs with a 31.6 Hard%, but a 20.3 K-BB% and .260 wOBA. J.D. Martinez (147 wRC+, .351 ISO vs RHP) still has some value in a great hitting environment. The roof will be open at Chase Field tonight, which may give hitters a slight additional advantage. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, tonight’s home plate umpire, Gerry Davis has 311 games called in the database with a 19.3 K% and 8.4 BB%, a slight lean towards hitters (0.98 K-Boost, 1.05 BB-Boost).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: David Peralta, Ketel Marte, JD Martinez, Yu Darvish Luis Severino's 29 K% and 3.25 SIERA are both second best on today's board
Considering that RHBs had just a .243 wOBA with a 23.8 K-BB%, 54.5 GB% and 24.9 Hard% against Luis Severino, perhaps the loss of Edwin Encarnacion will not be felt so much. Michael Brantley had a formidable 125 wRC+ and .177 ISO vs RHP, while LHBs had a slightly more competent .287 wOBA, 21.7 K-BB%, 46 GB% and 32.7 Hard%, numbers still very much in favor of one of the best pitchers in the league this year. Cleveland has a slate low 3.32 implied run line despite Severino’s struggles in the Wild Card game that didn’t allow him out of the first inning. While one wouldn’t expect a continuation of whatever went wrong in that game, it went to prove that these players are all still human and anything can happen in a single game. His 29.4 K% and 13.0 SwStr% trail only Max Scherzer on today’s board. The same can be said of his 2.98 ERA and 3.25 SIERA. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) at $3.7K and Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) at $3.3K may still project for some value on DraftKings, while Jason Kipnis (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) costs $2.8K on FanDuel. As we saw in the Wild Card game, margin for error is minuscule in an elimination game, but Severino has the ability to shut down any lineup and costs exactly $9.7K on either site, the third most expensive pitcher today. Though it’s been raining in the area most of the day, the forecast calls for it to dry out during game hours. Kevin gives the game a YELLOW grade with 15 mph winds blowing out to left. Brian O’Nora is tonight’s scheduled home plate umpire. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 284 games with O’Nora behind the plate, players have a 19.8 K% and 7.8 BB%, mostly a neutral effect (0.97 K-Boost, 1.02 BB-Boost).
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis RHBs had just a .273 wOBA with a 23.3 K-BB% against Trevor Bauer post-All-Star break
The Yankees and Indians feature the first two pitchers two start two games this post-season. For Trevor Bauer, he was brilliant in his initial outing, but gets just three day rest, which could shorten his workload, though managers generally aren’t allowing many starters to go deep in this post-season. During the regular season, LHBs had a .356 wOBA against him (33.3 Hard%) against him, RHBs a .309 wOBA (35.5 Hard%). Since he instituted the slider, post-All-Star break, RHBs had just a .273 wOBA (23.3 K-BB%, 32.2 Hard%). LHBs had a .372 wOBA, though with just a 29.3 Hard%. Considering that success, the Yankees have moved a couple of LHBs (Didi Gregorius & Gregory Bird) up a spot each in the order. Though Aaron Judge is the only Yankee with fewer than nine career PAs against Bauer (according to Baseball Savant), Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) has the sole HR against him. Bird (71 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) does have a 94.6 mph aEV on seven BBEs, though he’s the only batter in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season. As a whole, today’s confirmed lineup has a .349 wOBA, .209 ISO and 21.6 K% against RHP with Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO), Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO), who costs just $2.7K on FanDuel, being some of the more potent bats. As was the case in his initial start in the series, Bauer will need his secondary stuff (which may actually be the primary stuff in his case) working and being called for strikes to be effective. That will depend on Brian O’Nora, tonight’s scheduled home plate umpire. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 284 games with O’Nora behind the plate, players have a 19.8 K% and 7.8 BB%, mostly a neutral effect (0.97 K-Boost, 1.02 BB-Boost). Though it’s been raining in the area most of the day, the forecast calls for it to dry out during game hours. Kevin gives a YELLOW grade with 15 mph winds blowing out to left.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Umpire Factors Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird RHBs had nine HRs with a 36.5 Hard% against Quintana after being traded to the Cubs
Jose Quintana had a couple of great starts (7 IP – 3 H – 12K, 9 IP – 3 H – 10 K) after being traded to the Cubs but the entire body of work in the National League was a bit less impressive. He went more than six innings in just one of his other 12 starts, allowing at least three ERs in seven of them. While he had an impressive 28.3 K% in a Cubs uniform, that came with just an 8.6 SwStr%, nine HRs and 33.8 Hard%. RHBs had all nine of those HRs with a 36.5 Hard%. Quintana costs around $9K on either site and may be difficult to trust. Though the Nationals have the third lowest implied run line on the slate (3.8), Plate IQ shows this specific Washington lineup with a powerful .354 wOBA, .206 ISO and 20.6 K% against LHP this year. Anthony Rendon (186 wRC+, .346 ISO) and Ryan Zimmerman (.162 wRC+, .323 ISO) were particularly hazardous to southpaws, while Jayson Werth (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) wasn’t too bad either and costs less than $3.5K on either site. No Washington batter has much of a history or a single HR against Quintana in their career according to Baseball Savant. Kevin’s forecast has a slight wind blowing in from right/right-center around 10 miles per hour, but no other weather related impact on this game. Home plate umpire will be Fieldin Culbreth. In his 304 registered games behind the plate by Swish Analytics, available under Umpire Factors on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.1 K% and 8.5 BB%. A K-Boost of 1.09 and BB-Boost of 0.98, may make him a bit pitcher friendly.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Jose Quintana Max Scherzer leads all of today's pitchers in all strikeout and ERA estimator related categories
Max Scherzer is going to be the most difficult pitcher to get a grasp on. He tops the board with a 34.4 K% (five points above the second best pitcher), a 15.5 SwStr%, 2.51 ERA, 2.98 SIERA and 2.26 DRA and in none of those cases is it even particularly close. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and is facing the offense with the second lowest implied run line (3.7). If standard Max Scherzer shows up, there’s not much else to analyze. He may have the longest leash on the slate in a series tied at one with the oldest of old school managers in his dugout, not that his performance hasn’t earned that right. However, he’s been dealing with a myriad of injuries over the last few months, the most recent a hamstring issue that pushed this start back. One might have to wonder if he wouldn’t be on the DL if it were still the regular season. The risk is that he either pitches through it with an effect on his performance or that injury is bad enough to force him out of the game early. What we do know is that LHBs were nearly competent against Scherzer this year (.299 wOBA, 16 HRs, 17.1 K-BB%, 32.8 GB%, 6.8 Hard-Soft%), while RHBs were dominated (.188 wOBA, six HRs, 39.2 K-BB%, 41.9 GB%, 7.2 Hard-Soft%). This particular Chicago lineup had a potent .341 wOBA, .191 ISO and 19.6 K% against RHP this year. If taking a chance with Cubs bats, you’re hunting for a HR. That’s likely either Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP), who is $3.8K on either site, or Kyle Schwarber (109 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) at just $2.7K on FanDuel. Rizzo does in fact hav a HR against Scherzer in nine PAs according to Baseball Savant. However, it’s Ben Zobrist (94 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) who has actually taken Scherzer deep three times 30 PAs. It may not be a stretch to say that Scherzer’s health (or lack there of) could dictate this entire slate for daily fantasy purposes. Kevin’s forecast has a slight wind blowing in from right/right-center around 10 miles per hour, but no other weather related impact on this game. Home plate umpire will be Fieldin Culbreth. In his 304 registered games behind the plate by Swish Analytics, available under Umpire Factors on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.1 K% and 8.5 BB%. A K-Boost of 1.09 and BB-Boost of 0.98, may make him a bit pitcher friendly.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber Charlie Morton had a 19.5 K-BB% and -6.5 Hard-Soft% over his last 15 starts
The Boston Red Sox have the second highest implied run line on the slate (5.05) against Charlie Morton. Morton is one of five pitchers on today’s board with a strikeout rate between 26 and 27.3%, though his 3.70 SIERA was actually third best among today’s eight starters. After returning from over a month long DL stint in June, in his final 15 starts of the season, he registered a 19.5 K-BB%, 52.2 GB% and -6.5 Hard-Soft%, which is a fairly exceptional line. Over that span, LHBs had a .211 wOBA (four HRs) with a 28.9 K-BB% and 2.0 Hard-Soft% (45.2 GB%). RHBs had a .338 wOBA (three HRs) with a 11.6 K-BB% and -12.4 Hard-Soft% (56.9 GB%). Neither side made much potent contact against him, though he struggled a bit more with peripherals against RHBs. While the reverse split in terms of wOBA could help the Red Sox, this was not a pitcher to be trifled with during the latter half of the season for batters from either side. The confirmed Boston lineup had a .323 wOBA against RHP with just a .161 ISO and 18.3 K%. While the dangerous run environment and rain delay potential may make it more difficult to roster Morton at the second lowest price on the board on either site, Boston bats could be a bit over-valued by Vegas in this spot. The Astros still have a one game lead in the series, but don’t want to stretch it out any further. The leash for Morton may not be as short as Porcello’s, but his margin for error may be slim. No batter in the lineup has more than three BBEs recorded by Statcast against Morton or a career HR. Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+) is the only batter above a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year. Mitch Moreland (.214 ISO) the only one above a .200 ISO. Xander Bogaerts (93 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP), Dustin Pedroia (95 wRC+, .093 ISO vs RHP) and Hanley Ramirez (101 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) all cost $2.7K or less on FanDuel. Kevin gives this game his worst forecast of the post-season to date (ORANGE/YELLOW). He does believe they can play through the rain, but an early weather related dismissal of Porcello could hurt the Astros. The good news for hitters is that the moisture and a 10-20 mph wind blowing out to left-center should give an additional boost to batters. Yahoo Sports lists Mark Wegner as the home plate umpire for this game. In 288 opportunities according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.3 K% and 7.8 BB% with him calling pitches, which makes him a very hitter friendly umpire (0.94 K-Boost, 1.14 BB-Boost).
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez Rick Porcello allowed a major league leading 38 HRs this season
The Astros and Red Sox have the two highest run lines on the board, the visitors at 5.45, currently 0.4 runs above the home team. The reason being that Rick Porcello was not only one the most home run prone pitchers in the league (38 allowed led the majors by two), but he was fairly generous to batters from both sides (LHBs .360 wOBA, 21 HRs, 33.1 GB%, 41.2 Hard% – RHBs .336 wOBA, 17 HRs, 44.6 GB%, 35.7 Hard%). Aside from having the lowest strikeout rate on the board at a league average 20.5% and a board high 4.65 ERA, 4.28 SIERA and 5.51 DRA, other factors conspiring against Porcello’s daily fantasy success are potential weather issues and the fact that this is another elimination game for the Red Sox. David Price and Doug Fister are probably the only two pitchers on the staff unable to contribute today. Eduardo Rodriguez would be the likely long relief candidate. The confirmed Houston lineup has a .361 wOBA, .204 ISO and just a 15.7 K% against RHP this year. There is not a player in the lineup that doesn’t look good here, considering that both catchers cost just $3.4K on DraftKings and less than $3K on FanDuel. Brian McCann’s 104 wRC+ against RHP is the lowest mark in the lineup. No batter comes in below Alex Bregman’s .174 ISO. Jose Altuve (29.2%) is the only batter with a hard hit rate below 32.9%. Two Houston batters (Brian McCann and Josh Reddick) have double digit plate appearances against Porcello in thier career according to Baseball Savant. Neither with an aEV above 90 mph. Reddick is the only batter in the lineup who has homered off Porcello (just once). He costs just $2.7K on FanDuel, while Marwin Gonzalez (154 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) is just $2.5K. Rain is the only real detriment to the Houston lineup. Kevin gives this game his worst forecast of the post-season to date (ORANGE/YELLOW). He does believe they can play through the rain, but an early weather related dismissal of Porcello could hurt the Astros. The good news is that the moisture and a 10-20 mph wind blowing out to left-center should give an additional boost to batters. Yahoo Sports lists Mark Wegner as the home plate umpire for this game. In 288 opportunities according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.3 K% and 7.8 BB% with him calling pitches, which makes him a very hitter friendly umpire (0.94 K-Boost, 1.14 BB-Boost).
As reported by: Yahoo Sports Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Brian McCann, Jose Altuve, Rick Porcello, Marwin Gonzalez