DFS Alerts
One spot worth watching in Texas in the Thursday night forecast
Kevin’s evening forecast sees only a slight chance of a delay in Texas (vs Oakland) with rain in Chicago (vs Los Angeles) holding off until after the game. He also mentions several spots where strong winds could impact play. Read the full report on the Weather page and find Kevin on RG Premium Chat between 6-7pm with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Mike Trout and Jose Altuve separate themselves from the board in tonight's Player Projections
Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .353 ISO vs RHP) is the top projected batter on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections) by more than a full point on either site against Dylan Covey (RHBs .448 wOBA, 40.9 Hard%). Then, Jose Altuve (159 wRC+, .209 ISO vs LHP) is separated by nearly a full point from the next highest projection against Eduardo Rodriguez. The concern is that Altuve did miss a game with a forearm injury, but returned yesterday. George Springer (166 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP), Aaron Judge (177 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP – Jake Faria RHBs .303 wOBA, 34 Hard%) and Justin Upton (119 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) round out the top five on both sites. There’s some disparity between sites in the back half of the top 10, but no other team can claim multiple batters. There are a couple of potentially over-priced arms on DraftKings, but so many low priced bats in lineups that it shouldn’t be an issue. The projections see Josh Bell (4.32 Pt/$/K) and Melky Cabrera (3.98 Pt/$/K) as top values on FanDuel, while Victor Robles (2.68 Pt/$/K) is a potential top DraftKings value. If looking for a player projected for more than eight DraftKings points, Khris Davis (2.19 Pt/$/K) may be the top value.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Aaron Judge, Justin Upton, Josh Bell, Melky Cabrera, Victor Robles, Khris Davis Edwin Jackson has allowed 20 HRs over just 12 starts
Edwin Jackson has allowed 20 HRs in 12 starts, 18 over his last nine. While LHBs have hit him well (.345 wOBA, six HRs), RHBs have destroyed him for a .415 wOBA and 14 HRs. Unfortunately, Josh Bell (115 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP) is the only batter in the opposing lineup with an ISO above .170 against RHP this year, the Pirates’ home park punishes RH power. Andrew McCutchen (106 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP) can certainly be employed tonight. He’s not the only pitcher who has been torched by RHBs on the mound tonight. RHBs have a .351 wOBA, 16 HRs, 40.8 GB%, and 36.9 Hard% against Sean Manaea and has to deal with the Texas heat tonight. Elvis Andrus has a 122 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP, but the most potent lefty-masher in the lineup may be Robinson Chirinos (192 wRC+, .296 ISO). Ivan Nova has allowed 24 HRs over his last 108 innings pitched, 13 of them to LHBs, who have a .396 wOBA, 40.3 GB% and 36.3 Hard% against him. Daniel Murphy (140 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Lind (131 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) are in the lineup against him. Lance Lynn has allowed LHBs a .348 wOBA with 16 HRs. He’s allowed 26 total HRs, but just nine at home. He faces an almost entirely LH Cubs lineup tonight. Danny Duffy may be a usable pitcher tonight, but can be exploited by RH power. RHBs have 37 HRs against him since the start of last season. Ian Kinsler (.261 ISO), Nick Castellanos (.308 ISO) and James McCann (.267 ISO) have all shown power against LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Josh Bellamy, Daniel Murphy, Adam Lind, Nick Castellanos, Ian Kinsler, James McCann Brad Peacock (30.3 K%) is one of two pitchers on the board with a strikeout rate above 24%
It’s hard to look past Brad Peacock (30.3 K%) and Eduardo Rodriguez (26 K%) when the next highest strikeout rate on the board is Jake Faria (23.9 K%) at Yankee Stadium, but both are facing each other in Boston in not so ideal matchups. Peacock has managed contact well too (2.6 Hard-Soft%). That and his strikeout rate takes some of the concern out of a 36.9 GB% at Fenway. The Red Sox also have just a 9.9 HR/FB at home and even if an 18.5 K% at home is going to impact his strikeout rate, he’s in a better position than any other pitcher on the slate to absorb some loss there and still be effective. Eduardo Rodriguez has a 12.5 SwStr% or better in four straight starts. He too is an extreme fly ball pitcher (35 GB%), but just a league average contact manager, facing an offense with just a 16.6 K% against LHP. His use may be more difficult to justify. Sonny Gray is the favorite of the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. He’s been inconsistent, striking out five or fewer in five of his last eight starts, but exactly nine in each of the other three, still good for a 22.3 K% over that span, in which he’s also allowed nine HRs. His hard hit rate has been below 30% in five of those starts too, but have 35% in the other three. The Rays are a high strikeout offense (24.9% vs RHP), but also have quite a bit of power (16.9 HR/FB vs RHP). PlateIQ shows tonight’s confirmed lineup with a .305 wOBA, .147 ISO and 21.4 K% vs RHP, a little less of both power and strikeouts. Gray’s $11.7K cost on DraftKings might be a little aggressive. Danny Duffy and Kyle Hendricks are the other options tonight. Duffy struck out just two his last time out and is not an optimal choice against a Detroit offense that should still have some potency vs LHP, but he did strikeout eight the start prior, in his return from a month long absence. He’s allowed 37 HRs to RHBs over the last two seasons though, and Detroit is likely to load up on batters from that side. Hendricks could be useful in theory, but is a bit scary in the sense that he’s pitching for a team that clinched and partied all night against a team hanging onto wild card hopes by a thread. A loss tonight eliminates the Cardinals officially. That said, a league average strikeout rate with a 50% ground ball rate should probably be considered today, although his $10.5K DraftKings cost is also aggressive.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Jacob Faria, Sonny Gray, Danny Duffy, Kyle Hendricks Angels have the top implied run line on the slate (5.44) against Dylan Covey
Eight of 16 teams on an eight game slate have an implied run line above 4.8 runs with the Angels a surprise leader at 5.44 on the top of the board. A surprise until realizing that Dylan Covey is the opposing pitcher. Covey has just a 12.6 K% with an ERA, FIP, and DRA all above seven, as he’s allowed an 89.5 mph aEV, 8.8% Barrels/BBE and 41.5% 95 mph+ EV. The Angels need a special permit just to allow Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .353 ISO vs RHP) to bat against him. Justin Upton (119 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) and Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .149 ISO vs RHP) are fine choices as well. Batters from either side exceed a .380 wOBA against Covey this year. In fact, it’s hard to find many poor choices on the roster against a pitcher allowing this type of contact.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Dylan Covey The Cubs day after clinching lineup against Lance Lynn contains some potent LHBs
The Cubs are employing their “hangover” lineup in St Louis the night after clinching the division. The problem for Lance Lynn, who struggles with LHBs (.348 wOBA, 16 HRs, 1.9 K-BB%) is that their B-squad is fairly potent from the LH side and Lynn has struck out more than four in just two of his last 11 starts. The level of sharpness of those in the lineup is impossible to know after last night’s festivities, but there still may be some useful daily fantasy bats. Kyle Schwarber has a 108 wRC+ and .277 ISO vs RHP this year and Ian Happ a 116 wRC+ and .275 ISO. The Cubs may even be able to provide a couple of low cost bats in Alex Avila (135 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) and Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP). Lance Lynn has generally been more effective in his career at home against predominantly RH lineups where the park will help him limit power concerns. He’s allowed just nine of his 26 HRs at home this season, but with just a 9.7 K-BB%. The Cubs are implied for a slate low 3.3 runs, perhaps accounting for the expected celebration hangover effect.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Tommy La Stella, Alex Avila, Lance Lynn The Baltimore Orioles have dropped over one-third of a run since early afternoon
The Baltimore Orioles are the biggest run line droppers this afternoon, going from 4.29 implied runs down to 3.94 currently. That’s a decline of more than one-third of a run after confirming a lineup absent several regulars, including Tim Beckham, Adam Jones and Chris Davis. Chad Kuhl has really struggled against LHBs recently and Baltimore has a couple of cheap ones in the lineup tonight. Both sides of the Cardinals and Cubs matchup has dropped more than two-tenths of a run as well with St Louis going from 4.44 to 4.2 runs and Chicago dropping from 4.56 to 4.3. The Cardinals are still in contention for a Wild Card birth, while the Cubs clinching of the NL Central is a foregone conclusion at this point, though they’d likely love to knock out their division rivals. Michael Wacha costs less than $8K on either site, while John Lackey has allowed 36 HRs this season, tied for second most in all of baseball with Rick Porcello. No team has seen their run line improve more than two-tenths of a run since early afternoon. Players can find run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Michael Wacha, John Lackey No substantial concerns in Wednesday night's MLB forecast
Though several games are mentioned in Kevin’s updated forecast tonight, all spots lead with GREEN, meaning there are no substantial concerns on the slate. A few games in the northeast have a small chance of delay and Kevin touches on wind conditions around the league. Read the full report on the Weather page and catch Kevin on RG Premium Chat between 6-7PM with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Mike Trout is expected to be the most popular bat on tonight's slate
Mike Trout is the only hitter currently projected to be in more than 15% of lineups on either site and could find himself in upwards of 20% of lineups tonight in Chicago against Reynaldo Lopez, who has struck out just four of his last 112 batters. After that, Yankees and Brewers are expected to be popular on a team level. Luis Severino is likely to be the overwhelming pitching favorite. His 22.5 K-BB% is fifth best in the majors. Garrett Richards may be the popular SP2 on DraftKings with both Tanner Roark and Rich Hill appearing in more than 20% of lineups as well. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Garrett Richards, Tanner Roark, Rich Hill RotoGrinders Player Projections see Aaron Judge and Mike Trout as tonight's top hitters
According to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are the top pieces on the board from an offensive standpoint and it’s almost impossible to argue against that. Judge is on fire (376 wRC+, six HRs last seven days) and is facing a pitcher allowing 38.4% hard contact with a .386 wOBA to RHBs. Trout (191 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP) faces Reynaldo Lopez in Chicago. He’s allowed RHBs just a 25 Hard% this season, but has struck out just four of his last 112 batters. Along with Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner, the Yankees place three batters among the top 10 overall projections, the only offense with multiple batters at the top on either site. Several Kansas City bats (Brandon Moss, Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera) are priced below $3K on FanDuel and considered great values, all between 3.79 and 3.99 Pt/$/K. Jedd Gyorko (2.91 Pt/$/K) and Pedro Alvarez (2.91 Pt/$/K) are projected as top DraftKings values.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Brandon Moss, Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera, Jedd Gyorko, Pedro Alvarez Rick Porcello and John Lackey are tied for second most HRs allowed (36) in the majors
Last year, Rick Porcello won a Cy Young award (though the merits of that award can still be debated), while John Lackey was an important part of the rotation for the World Champions. This year they are among lead leaders as well, but not in a category either wants any part of. They are both tied for the second most HRs allowed in the majors with 36. Lackey also has four or fewer strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. Assuming there will continue to be HRs hit, who has the best chance of hitting them against these two pitchers tonight? Porcello is facing the Blue Jays. The easy answer is Josh Donaldson (144 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP), who has been raking recently and has a 179 wRC+ with a 47.6 Hard% over the last week. While LHBs have hit Porcello better than RHBs (.358 wOBA, 41.8 Hard% vs .333 wOBA, 35.7 Hard%), batters from either side have hit him well. Justin Smoak (124 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) would be the next consideration, though his bat hasn’t been as hot lately. The less popular pick could be Teoscar Hernandez, who now has a 167 wRC+ and .377 ISO against RHP in a small sample this year and his five HRs over the last week is second best in the majors. Lackey is facing his old team in St Louis. LHBs have a .367 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him this year. Matt Carpenter (138 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP) and Dexter Fowler (133 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP) are the top two picks here. Both have been on heaters (Carpenter 244 wRC+, 50 Hard%, Fowler 151 wRC+, 39.1 Hard% over the last week). RHBs have a .303 wOBA, but a 34 Hard% against Lackey as well. Both Tommy Pham (150 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP) and Jedd Gyorko (103 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) exceed a 200 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week as well.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Rick Porcello, Teoscar Hernandez, John Lackey, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko LHBs have torched Chad Kuhl for a 50% hard contact rate over his last six starts
Chad Kuhl is a walk machine, who struggles against LHBs. While he has a 27.3 K% over the last month, that’s backed by a 7.5 SwStr% and won’t last. He has a hard hit rate above 40% in four of his last six starts. Over this span, he has walked 16.9% of LHBs, while the ones who have made contact, have a 50 Hard% and just a 31 GB%. In a park that punishes RH power, but plays fairly towards LH power, players should probably consider any LH bat thrown out there against him and the Orioles are certainly going to challenge that notion. They have three LHBs in the lineup tonight, none of which are named Chris Davis. Pedro Alvarez hits cleanup tonight though and does have a 120 wRC+ and .259 ISO against RHP since last season. Chance Sisco is a cheap catcher who has already homered twice in his first 14 major league plate appearances. Anthony Santander is a switch hitter with just 59 plate appearances above A-ball before getting the call. He has struck out in eight of 20 major league PAs and seems to be over-matched at this point.
Other tagged players: Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander, Chad Kuhl Three low cost arms who could shine tonight
With all the uncertainty that goes along with pitcher workloads during the last week of the season, players could consider dropping down in price and considering a few arms who are very unlikely to any kind of limitation tonight. Michael Wacha is working for a Cardinal team that is still hanging on, but though that could work for or against him as there won’t be much margin for error. He seems to do everything just a little bit better than league average: miss bats (22.2 K%), generate ground balls (47.9 GB%) and limit hard contact (27.7%). There’s motivation and animosity on both sides of this affair against a league average Cubs’ offense. Brandon Woodruff is a decently considered prospect in a similar spot for the Brewers. He started well and has struggled more recently, but has been a strong contact manager (49.2 GB%, 2.5 Hard-Soft%) with a hard hit rate above 22% in just one of his last four starts. While his SwStr rate has been above 11% in four starts, it’s been below 5.5% in each of his other three. There seems to be no in between, but there does seem to be some upside. The Reds are an average offense as well, but have a 28.4 K% over the last week. Mark Leiter has struck out 50 of 208 batters (19.7 K-BB%) over his last nine appearances (seven starts), but has also allowed 10 HRs in 49.1 innings, though his 30.1 Hard% is actually slightly better than league average. Philadelphia can’t be blamed for those long balls either, as six of them have come in road parks with marginal power factors (Washington, New York NL, San Diego). The good news is that he’s facing a Washington team just looking to stay healthy with a 27.9 K% over the last week, though the recently confirmed lineup shows that they are starting most of their regulars tonight. All of these pitchers are below $8K on either site tonight.
Other tagged players: Brandon Woodruff, Mark Leiter Jr. Luis Severino (22.5 K-BB%) is tonight's top projected pitcher
Luis Severino is the top pitcher on the board. His 22.5 K-BB% is fifth best in baseball with no pitcher above him matching his 50.8 GB%, while he’s kept his hard hit rate below 30% as well. He’s the top projected pitcher tonight by the RotoGrinders Player Projections by a fair margin over Rich Hill and his possible tune up for the WC game could not come with much more strikeout upside (Rays 24.8 K% vs RHP). Rich Hill snapped a streak of nine straight starts allowing a HR last time out, but that didn’t hamper his overall effectiveness due to great peripherals (23.9 K-BB%) despite a 34.1 Hard% that nearly meets his 35.9 GB% over this span. While there may be some GPP worthy San Diego bats to consider due to these numbers, the Padres and their 25 K% on the road, vs LHP and over the last week, should not present many issues.Hill threw 96 pitches in his last start and would seem likely for a similar or slightly lighter post-season tune-up here, something players need to consider with a cost above $10K on either site. Tanner Roark has a 28.0 K-BB%, 51 GB% and 27.3 Hard% over his last six starts and that’s with a 50% hard hit rate last time out in Atlanta. He’s in a great spot against the Phillies tonight (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP). Garrett Richards worked his way up to 85 pitches last time out. The Angels are still mathematically alive, but five games behind the Twins, so they’re unlikely to push him too far, but he could close in on 100 pitches tonight. He’s been a great ground ball generator (57.4%) this season and has not allowed a hard hit rate above 28% with a 14.2 SwStr% since returning from the DL. He’s in a favorable spot in Chicago against the White Sox (17.0 K-BB% vs RHP). Danny Salazar has made four appearances this month, totaling 6.1 innings. Two of them were starts, but he has not gone more than 2.2 innings in any appearance. He threw 54 pitches last time out, so perhaps they want to stretch him out to 75 before the post-season, which could get him through five innings? He’s cheap enough on DraftKings ($6.4K), where that could be useful, but it’s not a great spot against the Twins (105 wRC+ vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Rich Hill, Tanner Roark, Garrett Richards, Danny Salazar Aaron Judge (376 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, six HRs last seven days) remains the hottest hitter on the planet
Aaron Judge is the hottest hitter on the planet. His 376 wRC+ and six HRs over the last week both lead baseball (10 PA min.), while his 66.7 Hard% is tied for second among all major league batters with at least 20 PAs. His matchup is at home against Matt Andriese tonight, whom RHBs have a .386 wOBA and 38.4 Hard% against. Christian Villanueva (314 wRC+, 40 Hard%, four HRs) has been quietly tearing it up for the Padres recently and should be in the lineup against Rich Hill (RHBs .260 wOBA, 32.1 Hard%), who just snapped a streak of nine straight games with a HR allowed. While RHBs have hit him harder over that span, he’s also run a 28.6 K-BB% against them. Travis D’arnaud (302 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) was out of the lineup last night, but should be back in there tonight against LHP Sean Newcomb (RHBs .339 wOBA, 28 Hard%). As mentioned, Aaron Judge has the second highest rate or hard contact in the majors among batters with more than 20 PAs, but he’s first among batters just on this slate. However, Mookie Betts (236 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, one HR) surpasses him on 13 batted balls, if the criteria is lowered to 16 PAs. His Red Sox have the third highest implied run line on the board (5.31) against Marco Estrada (RHBs .355 wOBA, 30.4 Hard%). Teoscar Hernandez (235 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, five HRs) trails only Judge in the HR department over the last week and faces the very HR prone Rick Porcello tonight (36 HRs allowed tied for second most in the majors, RHBs .333 wOBA, 35.7 Hard% this season).
Other tagged players: Christian Villanueva, Travis d'Arnaud, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez