DFS Alerts
Ian Kennedy has the highest hard hit rate on the board (40.7%) with 18 HRs allowed at home
Ian Kennedy has allowed 33 HRs this year and hasn’t thrown 90 pitches in five starts. His 40.7 Hard% is easily highest on the board, while he’s actually allowed more HRs (18) at home despite over 40 fewer PAs than on the road and Kansas City is generally a power suppressing park. Batters from either side have hit him well (.330+ wOBA), though LHBs have a hard hit rate (45.8%) 12.7 points higher than RHBs. J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP) is a monster in any park, but costs more than $5K on both sites tonight. Jake Lamb (133 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) costs $4.1K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy, JD Martinez
RHBs have a .333 wOBA with 11 HRs and 43 Hard% against Jake Odorizzi at home
Jake Odorizzi (.226) has a stark reverse split. Nineteen of his 30 HRs have been generated at home, though it’s the most pitcher friendly park in the division. RHBs have a .333 wOBA with 11 of those HRs in Tampa Bay this season with a 43 Hard%. A healthy Baltimore team generally stacks up predominantly RH. Trey Mancini (.226), Manny Machado (.204) and Welington Castillo (.204) are RHBs in the Baltimore lineup with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this year. Baseball Savant also credits Machado for a 90.2 mph aEV on 25 BBEs against Odorizzi, including four HRs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini, Jake Odorizzi Zack Greinke allowed three HRs in his last start, possible WC tune-up in KC tonight
Zack Greinke lasted four innings, surrendering eight runs (three HRs) to the Marlins with just three strikeouts at home last time out. While we can’t over-emphasize the results of just one terrible start, an additional concern is that he’s likely tuning up to pitch a Wild Card game in five days, so it might be a surprise to see him reach 100 pitches. That said, his 27 K% is still second best on the board and he’s getting a park upgrade tonight, a substantial one in terms of power suppression in Kansas City. The Royals have just a 10.6 HR/FB at home, but a 17.9 K% there as well as a 16.0 K% over the last week. Kansas City is starting their normal lineup minus Sal Perez tonight.
Stephen Strasburg's has the top strikeout rate on the board (29.1%), but threw just 83 pitches last start
Stephen Strasburg is the wild card tonight. If players could be assured of a standard workload, he’s tonight’s top pitcher against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense. His 29.1 K% leads the slate by more than two points. He’s thrown fewer than 95 pitches in five of seven starts since returning from the DL. The good news is that he’s still running out useful daily fantasy lines and was actually over 100 pitches in his other two starts. The bad news is that he threw just 83 pitches in his last start and Dusty would be nuts to push him over 100 tonight. However, he probably wants to keep him stretched out for the post-season, so something between 85 and 95 pitches sounds fair.
Dan Straily has struck out 17 of last 47 batters and faced a low powered Braves offense tonight
Dan Straily has struck out 17 of his last 47 batters with a 15 SwStr% over his last two starts. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34.3 GB%) with a reverse split (RHBs .333 wOBA – 18 HRs, LHBs .314 wOBA 11 HRs), which should work well for him against an Atlanta offense who have mostly stuck to playing their regulars, though Ender Inciarte is out tonight. While the Braves strike out less than 20% of the time, he’s allowed just 10 of his 29 HRs at home. The Braves have just a 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP and very little RH power to go along with a 25 Hard% over the last week.
Cleveland is running their normal lineup out against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .362 wOBA)
The Indians are running their normal lineup out tonight and the White Sox are running Mike Pelfrey out. Perhaps Cleveland is invested in gaining home field advantage from the Astros with one game of separation. Stacking LH Cleveland bats is an ideal option tonight. Mike Pelfrey has started one game since the first week of August. LHBs torch him (.362 wOBA, 14 HRs, 42.5 GB%, 33.7 Hard%). RHBs have hit him well too (.346 wOBA, 10 HRs), but with less contact prowess (57.5 GB%, 27.5 Hard%). Edwin Encarnacion (137 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) is probably the one RHB to consider. Francisco Lindor (112 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Ramirez (143 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) are elite options tonight, though all three are quite expensive on either site.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Pelfrey Charlie Morton has a -5.6 Hard-Soft% in 14 starts since returning from the DL
The Red Sox have announced a competitive lineup, including most of the players that would be expected in there tonight against Charlie Morton, who has a reverse split this year (RHBs .351 wOBA, LHBs .248 wOBA). However, RHBs have a 55.3 GB% and 26.7 Hard% against him, while LHBs have a 45.8 GB% and 28 Hard%. Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland and Rafael Devers are the only LHBs in the lineup. The interesting thing is that this game is meaningful for the Red Sox if the Yankees win (and they currently are 4-0 in the seventh), but Boston would clinch with a Yankee loss. Morton could still be an interesting play on a pitching deficient board. He lost a mile off his fastball upon his return from the DL just before the All-Star break, but considering the results, one might think it intentional. His 19.4 K-BB% is an improvement over these 14 starts, while his 51.4 GB% has remained exactly the same. The biggest improvement has been in contact management (-5.6 Hard-Soft%). He’s allowed more hard contact than soft in just two of 14 starts. Fenway is a tough park against an offense that does not strike out a lot (18.4% at home), but neither do they have much power (9.9 HR/FB at home).
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers Luiz Gohara has exceeded a 25 K% at four different levels of play this year
Luiz Gohara was predictably thumped in his second consecutive start against the Nationals two starts back, but responded by striking out nine Phillies. The 21 year-old flame thrower flew through several levels of the minors this season, but did have a double digit walk rate at AAA (seven starts). He did not walk a single National over those two starts, but has walked six of 45 batters in his other two starts. The Marlins actually strike out a bit less than league average and have just a 3.5 Hard-Soft% against LHP, mostly due to Marcell Ozuna’s lack of power production against them this season (114 ISO, 28.1 FB%). Giancarlo Stanton (202 wRC+, .455 ISO vs LHP) is certainly a strong bat tonight, but J.T. Realmuto (123 wRC+, .204 ISO) is the other other batter in the lineup with an ISO above .130 vs LHP this year (30 PA min.). Gohara has exceeded a 25 K% at four different levels of play this year and is an interesting, if high risk, play tonight.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto LHBs have a .425 wOBA, 0.5 K-BB%, 34.1 GB%, and 37.1 Hard% against Matt Harvey this year
Matt Harvey actually has just a 28.2 Hard% in 18.1 September innings. LHBs have destroyed him this year though (.425 wOBA, 0.5 K-BB%, 34.1 GB%, 37.1 Hard%. The Phillies lack power from that side. Nick Williams (111 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) might be the top play for $3.6K on DraftKings, $3.1K on FanDuel. RHBs have a 52.9 GB% with a .328 wOBA and 29.5 Hard% against Harvey this year, but Rhys Hoskins (172 wRC+, .364 ISO, 46.6 Hard%) is certainly still in play at a reasonable cost on either site.
Other tagged players: Matt Harvey, Rhys Hoskins Gerrit Cole has surrendered a .370 wOBA with 13 HRs to LHBs on the road this season
The Nationals are running out what may very well be their post-season lineup tonight against Gerrit Cole in Washington, but make not mistake about it, Dusty Baker has no interest in the results of this weekend’s games beyond staying healthy and could pull his starters at any time, which makes guys like Bryce Harper (181 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP) and Daniel Murphy (142 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) riskier than normal in what might be an under-valued spot for them. Gerrit Cole has allowed four or five ERs in six of his last eight starts with a low of five strikeouts over that span in his last start. He’s allowed eight HRs over that span, six in four road starts. Left-handed batters have destroyed him over this span with a 40.5 Hard%. In fact, on the season, they have a .370 wOBA with 13 HRs on the road. Matt Wieters (60 wRC+, .115 ISO vs RHP) is the only other LHB in the lineup, but merits no attention.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Gerrit Cole, Matt Wieters Trevor Bauer has used a slider to increase his SwStr% and reduce hard contact
Trevor Bauer has a 26.3 K% over his last 10 starts that is not really removed from his full season rate, but his SwStr rate has gone from 8.4% to 10% to better support it. He’s also decreased his hard hit rate from 37.5% to 31.1% over that span. It’s simple to see from his pitch mix that this is when he replaced 10% of his fastballs with sliders. He’s tuning up for his post-season opponent against the White Sox here, but it’s a nice spot in which he could produce for less than $10K, though his cost is at last $9K on either site. The White Sox are running their normal lineup out tonight. They have a .318 wOBA and .181 ISO, but an enormous 25.7 K% vs RHP according to PlateIQ.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ The Brewers position in the standings means no margin for error for Chase Anderson
Most games will be difficult to fully evaluate until actual lineups are released tonight. The game at Coors with the two highest run lines is one exception. Eleven more teams have an implied run line between 4.7 and 5.55 runs, which makes half the teams on the slate above that line, but as we saw yesterday, run lines can take drastic turns if teams are sitting a significant portion of their regulars. Another place that shouldn’t be much of a concern is in St Louis where the Brewers will be full steam ahead, fighting for a Wild Cards spot against John Gant, who gets his second start of the season for the Cardinals. His first lasted 14 batters without a single strikeout. He’s seen 53 major league batters this year and allowed three HRs, seven walks and eight strikeouts. RHBs have hit him slightly better than LHBs in his career. Both have five HRs with a hard hit rate above one-third of batted balls. No matter what Hawk Harrelson says, the “will to win” doesn’t always make it so, but this should be a decent enough spot for Brewer bats. Eric Thames (138 wRC+, .291 ISO – hurt his foot yesterday), Neil Walker (127 wRC+, .203 ISO), Travis Shaw (125 wRC+, .252 ISO), Ryan Braun (110 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Domingo Santana (122 wRC+, .225 ISO) have all hit RHP well this season, though their power numbers may take a hit in St Louis at this time of year. On the other side, Chase Anderson might actually be hurt by Milwaukee’s contention. He hasn’t thrown 100 pitches since June and will have no margin for error here against a dejected St Louis team that had it’s season end in excruciating fashion last night (game ending, HR robbing catch by the Cubs of all teams). The good news is that he has struck out 16 of his last 45 batters with a 12.9 SwStr% and Matt Carpenter has been shut down for the season after the team’s elimination. He also has a reverse platoon split this season and for his career, though he has been better than he usually is against RHBs this season (.301 wOBA). The Cardinals have several RHBs who hit RHP well: Tommy Pham (150 wRC+, .205 ISO), Randal Grichuk (101 wRC+, .243 ISO), Paul DeJong (112 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (101 wRC+, .178 ISO).
Other tagged players: John Gant, Eric Thames, Neil Walker, Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko Rockies and Dodgers have tonight's highest run lines in a game that matters at Coors
The last Friday of the baseball season is one that’s difficult to fully project until most lineups are actually released. The two highest run lines on the slate below to the Dodger (5.82) and Rockies (5.68) at Coors and these are two teams we can probably count on playing their regulars and playing hard tonight. The Rockies can clinch a Wild Card berth with a win plus a Milwaukee loss. The Dodgers aren’t playing for anything in particular, but one would suggest they’d probably rather see Milwaukee in that Wild Card game than chance enduring another trip to Coors this year. The interesting dynamic in play here is that both pitchers (Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chad Bettis) have been reverse platoon splitters by wOBA with the visitor having a 67 point difference and the home pitcher just 11 points, but both have allowed batters from the opposite side of the plate a higher hard hit rate with the home pitcher having the larger gap there (seven full points). Another key piece to this is that while both pitchers also have career reverse splits, Bettis has a lower ground ball rate with more hard contact against RHBs for his career (opposite to this season), while Ryu’s has shown a small difference in his K-BB% (worse vs LHBs) with no difference in ground ball rate or hard hit rate between right and left-handed batters. If players see guys like Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes in the lineup, don’t think it’s because the Dodgers are resting regulars, but because of Bettis’s reverse splits. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger all exceed a 35 Hard% and 45 FB% against the handedness of the pitcher being faced tonight, which may be the most telling stats here. Tuner is the only one below a .300 ISO too.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Bettis, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Trevor Story Angels run line drops substantially (5.39 to 5.06) after lineup without Trout and Upton is released
The Los Angeles Angels are just one of several teams that have seen their run line drop over the course of the afternoon, the most likely factor the release of a lineup not containing Mike Trout, Justin Upton or Kole Calhoun. The Angels began the afternoon with the highest implied run line on the board (5.39), just ahead of the Oakland A’s (5.38), but are now currently a half run behind the A’s (5.55 to 5.06) for the slate lead, although they still have the second highest implied run line on the board. On the other end of the spectrum, the Chicago Cubs have increased from 3.31 to 3.66. They’re resting many of their starters as expected the night after clinching the division, but many of their replacements are potent LH bats against a pitcher (Lance Lynn) who struggles against LHBs. Players can find run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Lance Lynn, Dylan Covey Sonny Gray is expensive, but affordable and expected to be Thursday's most popular pitcher
Alex Bregman is the only pitcher projected to hit 20% ownership on both sites. He’s facing one of the better pitchers on the mound Thursday night (Eduardo Rodriguez), but in the very hitter friendly environment known as Fenway Park. On DraftKings, Luis Valbuena could exceed surpass him, as he costs $3.3K in the cleanup spot against Dylan Covey. Both men play third base, but are mutli-position eligible on DraftKings. Sonny Gray may be over-priced at $11.7K on DraftKings, but players should have no difficulty affording any pitcher they’d like tonight, potentially putting Gray in more than 40% of lineups there. At a more affordable $9.2K on FanDuel, Gray could be in over 30% of lineups there as well. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Dylan Covey, Luis Valbuena, Eduardo Rodriguez