DFS Alerts
The Yankees, Brewers and Red Sox are at the top of a slate without an offense above 5.4 runs.
Seven of 22 teams on an 11 game slate have an implied run line between 5.01 and 5.38 with no other team above 4.71. The Yankees, Brewers and Red Sox are all within one-tenth of a run of each other at the top. Aaron Judge (176 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP) has been destroying baseballs and is the probably the top overall hitter on the board against Matt Andriese, who has allowed RHBs a .386 wOBA and 38.4 Hard% this year. The Brewers are looking like a powerful stack though. LHBs have a .357 wOBA (31.9 Hard%) against Homer Bailey and the Milwaukee bats are fairly affordable. Eric Thames (136 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP), Neil Walker (126 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (127 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP) all have a 40% or better hard hit rate over the last week and cost $3.4K or less on FanDuel, while Shaw is the only one of the three above $4K on DraftKings. Stephen Vogt (90 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP, 189 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% last seven days) could be a great value catcher, costing much less. RHBs have an even higher wOBA (.412) against Bailey, though Domingo Santana (124 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (113 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP) cost a bit more. The Red Sox are facing Marco Estrada, who’s reverse split this year (.355 wOBA vs RHBs) should play right into the hands of the Red Sox, but without a lot of RH power and Chris Young (108 wRC+ vs RHP) being the only projected right-handed starter above a 100 wRC+ against RHP, it’s tougher to find great fits.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Stephen Vogt, Aaron Judge, Homer Bailey, Marco Estrada, Matt Andriese
Bartolo Colon could cut into Chris Sale's ownership with special FanDuel promotion
On DraftKings, no hitter is currently projected above 15% ownership because players are expected to pay up for Chris Sale (37.5%), who costs $13.4K and that is going to necessitate saving salary elsewhere, but in no singularly obvious spot. FanDuel could be a bit more interesting with the Bartolo Colon shenanigans (he costs $44), which pushes his projected ownership rate past 10% and still below Chris Sale, but not by much. Again, no single hitter is projected above 15% there either, but it may be more difficult to accurately project exactly what players will do when presented with such an odd situation as Colon’s pricing tonight. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon A few games added to the evening weather watch since the morning forecast
A few games have been added to the weather report compared to this morning in Kevin’s evening forecast. No games currently grade worse than YELLOW, but there is a chance of delay in a few spots. The biggest mound concern would be the Dallas Keuchel/Cole Hamels matchup in Texas, though Kevin doesn’t believe a delay is the most likely scenario. Chicago (AL) (vs Los Angeles AL), Kansas City (vs Detroit) and Colorado (vs Miami) are other spots with the most delay potential, but since pitching is unlikely to be a concern in those games, the concern shouldn’t be great. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and make sure to catch Kevin on RG Premium Chat between 6-7pm for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Cole Hamels Bryce Harper not expected to play entire game tonight
Dusty Baker is planning to ease Bryce Harper back into play, not allowing him to play full games right away, although he failed to specify how many innings or plate appearances Harper would see immediately. For however long it lasts, Harper (183 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP) is in a nice spot against Jake Thompson with his team implied for 5.25 runs tonight, although the righty has shown reverse platoon splits this year (LHBs .299 wOBA, 59.6 GB%, 28.9 Hard%)
As reported by: Jorge Castillo Coors field boasts the top four projected batters tonight
Tonight’s top four projected batters (Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Marcell Ozuna) all play at Coors tonight according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections before Mike Trout in the fifth spot. Trout (189 wRC+, .352 ISO vs RHP) gets Chris Volstad, who has thrown less than 10 major league innings (all in relief) since 2012. Stanton (198 wRC+, .440 ISO) destroys LHP, though Ozuna (113 wRC+, .117 ISO) has perplexingly put the ball on the ground 52% of the time against them this year. Tyler Anderson is a decent LHP, but RHBs have a .369 wOBA (33.7 Hard%) against him due to the Coors effect this year. Charlie Blackmon (147 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP) is an easy play if affordable, but RHBs have a 17.3 K-BB%, 67.3 GB% and -3.9 Hard-Soft% against Jose Urena over his last seven starts, calling Nolan Arenado’s value at a high cost into question tonight. Three Cleveland bats (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) appear in the back half of the top 10 against Bartolo Colon, along with the hottest bat in the majors, Aaron Judge, and Paul Goldschmidt. Top projected values are Jay Bruce (4.14 Pt/$/K) on Fanduel and Chris Taylor on both sites (4.04 Pt/$/K FD/2.67 Pt/$/K DK).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Jay Bruce, Chris Taylor, Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez Trevor Williams has been missing more bats, in a great spot hosting Baltimore tonight
Even before the Orioles released a lineup, Trevor Williams had some interesting factors in his favor tonight. He has solidified himself as a solid contact manager this season (6.3 Hard-Soft%, 84.9 mph aEV, 4.9% Barrels/BBE, 29% 95+ mph EV), but never really generated enough strikeouts for daily fantasy play (17.9 K%). In September, he’s struck out 16 of 70 batters (22.9%) with an 11.8 SwStr% and while September gains aren’t always to be trusted due to expanding rosters, this might be a great spot with the Orioles coming to town. Baltimore has a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year and 25.5 K-BB% (7.8 HR/FB) over the last week. They not only transition a predominantly right-handed lineup to a park that crushes RH power tonight, but they lose their DH as well. Baltimore has actively attempted to remedy their right-handed problem in what they must realize is a power crushing park tonight. However, that’s not only resulted in Chris Davis batting cleanup tonight, but Chance Sisco and Anthony Santander as their additional LHBs. This confirmed lineup has just a .301 wOBA, .160 ISO and 19.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander Several strong daily fantasy contributors this season have been struggling lately
The strength and depth of Tuesday night’s pitching board, led by Chris Sale, allows players to more easily skip over pitchers who are struggling or whom they are unsure of. Alex Wood, Carlos Martinez, Dinelson Lamet and James Paxton have all been strong daily fantasy contributors this season, but something seems a bit amiss in recent starts. Alex Wood is coming off two straight strong starts considering the end results (12 IP – 6 H – 2 ER – 1 BB – 14 K – 43 BF – 11.6 SwStr%). Last time out specifically, he generated a 66.7 GB% and 13.3 Hard%, though his velocity continues to trend downward. What he’s done to compensate for velocity loss since the end of July is drop his fastball usage below 50% in favor of changeups. Why has is not worked until these last two starts then? He threw 37.5% changeups last time out, but that could have been just a function of the opposing lineup. The Padres (25 K% on the road & vs LHP, 28 K% & 3.1 Hard-Soft% last seven days) could be the top matchup on the board. He might be the most interesting arm here. Carlos Martinez has allowed 11 runs and three HRs over his last 11.2 IP. His velocity was down more than a full mile per hour in his last start. If it bounces back tonight it’s no big deal, but it’s not a chance players need to take tonight, especially considering his difficulties with LHBs (.334 wOBA, 34.3 Hard% this year). Dinelson Lamet allowed three HRs to the Diamondbacks last time out after having allowed that many over his previous 10 starts. Strikeouts are down and perhaps more concerning than that is that he hasn’t had a double digit SwStr% in over a month now. He had been managing contact well since the end of July before his last two starts, in which his hard hit rate has exceeded 40%. Lamet has now thrown the same number of innings this year as he did last year and will pass 150 tonight. Fatigue could be setting in. Exposure to Dodger bats could be contrarian and worthwhile tonight. James Paxton has thrown 50 and 73 pitches in two starts back from the DL with the following line: 5 IP – 5 ER – 4 BB – 4 K – 27 BF – 6.5 SwStr% – 22.2 GB%. The good news is that Oakland is a high strikeout spot (24.5% vs LHP), they have less power against LHP and just a 27 Hard% over the last week. The Mariners have no reason to push him though.
Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Alex Wood, James Paxton Chris Sale is the top arm on a deep Tuesday pitching board
Chris Sale is tonight’s top pitcher, projected more than a full touchdown ahead of any other pitcher by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. He struck out 13 his last time out and the good news is that he still has something to pitch for as the Red Sox haven’t clinched yet and he’s in a dog fight for the Cy Young award. He’s the easy play against Toronto if players are looking to pay up. Robbie Ray trails only Sale in K% and SwStr%. He snapped a string of four straight starts with double digit strikeouts in his last start, allowing three HRs in San Diego. As long as he’s striking out 10, nobody cares about his 40.8 Hard%. When he walks five with just six Ks though, it’s a problem. The Giants don’t strikeout a lot, but have just a 7.4 HR/FB vs LHP. Sure, the park probably has something to do with that and they get a very hitter friendly transition tonight. Dallas Keuchel struck out seven for the third time since his return from the DL last time out (11 starts), but has reached five just one other time. The ground balls are certainly still there (65%) and while the contact management is not up to his usual standards, a 6.5 Hard-Soft% is still well ahead of the league average. He’s not in any easy spot in Texas, but the Rangers have a 24.6 K% vs LHP and 22.7 K-BB% over the last week. Gio Gonzalez has struck out seven or eight in four of his last six starts. He has just an 8.2 SwStr% over that span, but that’s more a function of it being below 4% in his two poor ones. Just as importantly, he’s walked just one in four of those starts too and has been a quality contact manger all year. The spot is certainly ideal against a Philadelphia team with an 81 wRC+ and 6.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. The concern is that the Nationals aren’t playing for much. ESPN’s Marc Simon had a great piece about him this afternoon. Kevin Gausman has a phenomenal park transition today. Where better than Pittsburgh for a RHP pitcher with reverse platoon contact problems? His hard hit rate has even been 30% or below in six of his last seven starts, while he now has a 26.9 K% over his last 18 starts. The Pirates have a 10 HR/FB at home and vs RHP.
As reported by: Marc Simon Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman It's Bartolo Colon day on FanDuel
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room…and this isn’t a crack at Bartolo Colon’s weight. FanDuel has decided to honor what may be his last major league start by running a number of contests centered around his age (44) and pricing him at just $44 as well. While it’s a fun little sideshow, players have to contemplate if he’s actually worth even that cost anymore and the answer might be that he’s not. Colon has a 6.63 ERA and 13.6 K% (5.11 SIERA/7.15 DRA) for the season with a 7.99 ERA over the last month and 16 HRs and 41.1 Hard% over his last 11 starts. Perhaps the optimal outcome for anyone rostering him might be leaving the game immediately. In Cleveland, players have to accept the legitimate chance of a negative game score. The Indians have an implied run line of 5.53, which is fourth on the board. The other side, of course, is that rostering Big Sexy allows players to stack Coors and just about any other potent offensive they’d like…even Cleveland, for example. It may have been more interesting if FanDuel gave us R.A. Dickey for $42 (his age) tonight too or instead. Because knuckleballs are sexy too.
Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey Here are the teams who are still playing for something tonight
The last week of the MLB season can be difficult to navigate with expanded rosters. While it’s not fair to say that only players on teams still jockeying for post-season position are still playing hard, it’s probably worth it to know which teams those are. However, don’t forget that even on team’s who are just playing out the string or are mainly concerned with health as they coast into the post-season, there are still players fighting for individual goals or jobs next season. It does make it sometimes more difficult to completely evaluate pitching choices prior to confirmed lineups being released. With that in mind, players should note that in the American League, while Boston and New York have both clinched post-season birth, the Yankees are still mathematically alive, four games behind the Red Sox. Cleveland and Houston are separated by two games for the best record, however important that is for them since home field advantage has been proven to not be that much of a post-season advantage in recent years. The Twins are five games up on the second Wild Card and could clinch tonight. Sadly, it doesn’t look like any American League races will come down to even the weekend. Unfortunately, it’s much the same in the National League too. The Cubs have the smallest division lead at six games with the Nationals (who have been coasting for a while) are five games behind the Dodgers for home field. The Diamondbacks have clinched their Wild Card berth, but Milwaukee and St Louis are both still within three games of Colorado in the only real race left in the majors. One would expect the teams opposing them to give it their all as well.
As reported by: MLB.com Aaron Judge is the clear top bat in the league over the last week (355 wRC+, 6 HRs)
The two hottest batters in the majors both play for New York. It’s not often that the highest wRC+ marks (10 PA min.) match up with HR leaders, but there is no doubt about the top guy over the last week. Aaron Judge (355 wRC+, 61.1 Hard%, six HRs) has a two HR lead on the rest of the majors and has hit three over the last two days. He’s got Blake Snell tonight, who has done league average work against RHBs (.323 wOBA, 43.1 GB%, 33.3 Hard%). Travis D’arnaud (314 wRC+, 31.3 Hard%, four HRs) is now up to a .195 ISO on the season vs RHP. R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball is either working or it’s not. It was last time out against Washington, it wasn’t the time before that when he didn’t strike out a single Met. RHBs have a .352 wOBA with a 30.1 Hard% against Dickey this year.
Efren Navarro (255 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, two HRs) has walked or struck out in 58.8% of his 17 PAs, but his week remains eye opening. Since he’s unlikely to play against Jason Vargas in a lefty on lefty matchup though, there is one other batter with a hard hit rate more than two-thirds of batted balls. Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, 68.8 Hard%, one HR) is in a marginal spot against J.A. Happ (RHBs .320 wOBA, 28.3 Hard%).
Rockies lead the slate by 0.8 implied runs, but Jose Urena has dominated RHBs recently
The Colorado Rockies are once again at the top of the run line board by a wide margin. They’re 6.47 implied run line against the Jose Urena and the Marlins is 0.8 runs ahead of the next best team. Ten more teams on a full slate are between 4.89 and 5.67 runs. Like yesterday’s starter for Miami, Urena doesn’t strike out a lot of batters (15.9%), but has also been a quality contact manager with a 55.2 GB% and 26.6 Hard% over his last seven starts. His 85.2 mph aEV and 30% 95+ mph EV are two of the better marks in the league this year. Over this seven span stretch, he has a -2.1 K-BB%, 47.4 GB% and 19.5 Hard-Soft% with five of his six HRs allowed. This bodes greatly for Charlie Blackmon (147 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP) and even Gerardo Parra (92 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP). Carlos Gonzalez (99 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP) missed yesterday’s game with an injury and is being replaced by Ian Desmond (76 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP). Raimel Tapia (90 wRC+, .127 ISO vs RHP) may be the superior option here. The Rockies don’t otherwise employ another LHB regularly and that could be a problem tonight. RHBs have a 17.3 K-BB%, 67.3 GB% and -3.9 Hard-Soft% against Urena during this span, difficult numbers to overcome, even in this environment.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Urena, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia Start of Monday's MIA-COL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE in his updated weather forecast due to the possibility of a rain delay with scattered showers in the vicinity of the stadium. Unfortunately, a postponement cannot be fully ruled out either, though Kevin is confident is confident the game will play through to completion eventually. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders via Twitter
Players are expected to take advantage of under-priced Seattle bats on DraftKings
Colorado bats are expected to be most popular on FanDuel, where Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado specifically could reach ownership rates around 20%. On DraftKings though, players are likely to take advantage of Seattle under-pricing. Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura and Robinson Cano are all right around $3K and expected to be in a quarter of lineups or more. This affects pitching dynamics as well, as Aaron Nola and Luke Weaver may be under-priced as well, both below $10K (Nola is only $8K) and projected to be in 40% of lineups or more. Current projections see Nola battling Darvish at a similar cost for the top spot on FanDuel.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Aaron Nola, Luke Weaver, Yu Darvish Miami @ Colorado (YELLOW/ORANGE) the biggest concern in tonight's forecast
The one area of concern in Kevin’s evening forecast is in Colorado, where he has confidence the game will play, but there is enough of a risk of showers that it is currently labelled YELLOW/ORANGE. Colorado will also be one of the few spots with below average temperatures for this time of the year. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and Kevin will be in RotoGrinders Premium Chat 6-7pm with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page