DFS Alerts
Trevor Bauer allowing a .359 wOBA to LHB this season
This could pose a problem for the righty as the Yanks will roll out six bats from the left side of the plate this afternoon. Specifically, he could have trouble getting through the top of the order. Three of the first four batters are lefties boasting wOBAs over .350 and ISOs over .200 against RHP this year. Bauer has also given up a solid amount of hard contact to LHB (35.7%) across a sample size of 291 TBF. While those three lefty bats – Brett Gardner (.357 wOBA, .201 ISO, 123 wRC+, 33.7% Hard%), Aaron Hicks (.354 wOBA, .215 ISO, 120 wRC+, 30.1% Hard%), and Didi Gregorius (.366 wOBA, .228 ISO, 128 wRC+, 27.0% Hard%) don’t carry high hard contact rates, their other numbers suggest this is an exploitable spot for them considering Bauer’s .224 ISO. A sneaky option could be Gregory Bird, who’s posted an impressive 41.5% Hard% and 52.5% FB% through 74 plate appearances against LHP. His .175 BABIP indicates his .097 ISO and .237 wOBA are much lower than they should be. Bird does have a strike out problem (28.4%), but on the bright side, Bauer’s k-rate drops from 28.9% against righties to 23.0% when facing left-handers. Vegas believes in the Yankees today, providing them 4.97 projected runs despite Bauer’s solid 3.85 SIERA, which is tied with Carlos Martinez for second behind Stephen Strasburg (who isn’t available on DraftKings’ primary early slate). There are five teams ahead of them in the metric on the short slate, which should suppress their ownership.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird
Wednesday's afternoon slate free of weather concerns; a couple of spots to monitor at night
Following a rough night of weather featuring two PPDs, we’re expecting nice weather across the league Wednesday. Everything is clear on the early slate. Four of the five outdoor games will experience first-pitch temperatures between 73-77 degrees with humidity in the upper 50s while the DET-COL matchup is going to be notably warmer at 87 degrees. Wind won’t play much of a factor this afternoon. Later on this evening, PIT-CHC and CHW-MIN are both considered GREEN-YELLOW. In the former, rain is expecting following the start of the game, so it’ll be worth checking out Kevin’s afternoon update; precipitation should clear in the latter prior to the first pitch. Similar to the afternoon games, only one will top 80 degrees – it’s expected to be 89 in Anaheim for the OAK-LAA tilt. Check out the weather page for complete details and hop into premium chat an hour before the main slate locks for minute-by-minute updates from Kevin on the two potential trouble spots.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Mariners-Orioles expected to start at 7:30 ET
Just like the game in DC, this one will only experience a short delay. The bats in this game still carry some mild risk, but they are certainly viable GPP options.
As reported by: @EddieInTheYard
Marlins-Nationals to kick off at 7:30 ET
An official delay was announced not too long ago, but it’ll be a short one as this game is set to start at 7:30 ET. The bats in this one appear safe to target, mainly the Nats against a blow-up prone arm in Vance Worley. Giancarlo Stanton certainly provides some GPP appeal as an under-owned upside play the way he’s been hitting the ball in the late summer months.
As reported by: @Marlins Marlins @ Nationals to be delayed, but Kevin is optimistic
The Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals will be delayed, but Kevin is actually slightly more optimistic both here and in Baltimore, lowering the risk slightly. Make sure to catch him in RotoGrinders Premium Chat (https://rotogrinders.com/chat?channel=premium) for further updates.
As reported by: Washington Nationals
Orioles-Mariners to start in a delay on Tuesday
This is just one of a number of games to be impacted by weather, and this one will officially start in a delay. The risk here has lowered very slightly as the day has played out, but you’re playing with fire targeting a pitcher in any of the games that will see precipitation. Hitters also carry some risk, albeit less than the arms. It’s also worth noting that winds are expecting to be blowing in at about 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH, which doesn’t improve the outlook for the bats.
Yadier Molina scratched Tuesday
Molina has been scratched from the Cardinals lineup on Tuesday, although reasons for the scratch haven’t been disclosed at this point. Carson Kelly will now catch Luke Weaver, which doesn’t have a big impact on Weaver’s outlook but it’s not a plus that he’s losing one of the best defensive catchers in the game.
Other tagged players: Carson Kelly Rich Hill has a 26.2 K-BB%, but 38.1 GB% and 33.1 Hard% last 11 starts, seven HRs last five
Rich Hill is one of the top pitchers on the board. His 28.8 K% is second only to Chris Sale and his 84.1 mph aEV and 28% 95+ mph EV are lowest on the board among those with more than six starts. That said, rostering some RH Diamondbacks could make some sense. They’re likely to be low owned and despite a 26.2 K-BB% over his last 11 starts, he also has a 38.1 GB% and 33.1 Hard% over that span. He’s allowed seven HRs over his last five starts. J.D. Martinez (265 wRC+, .565 ISO vs LHP) and Paul Goldschmidt (147 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP) are the obvious choices, but also consider Chris Iannetta (157 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP), who’s much cheaper and has homered twice in 10 PAs against Hill.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Rich Hill, Paul Goldschmidt Adam Rosales will replace Ketel Marte for Arizona and bat eighth
Adam Rosales is in for Ketel Marte tonight, batting eighth. Marte was in the original lineup with no reason given yet for the swap.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks Other tagged players: Ketel Marte Astros righties likely to feast in matchup with Martin Perez and his 37.1% HH% versus RHB
Outside of a couple of recent anomalies and a seven-inning shutout his last time out against the Los Angeles Angels on the road, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up the magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in an unsustainable amount of starts. However, he has shown cracks in this aforementioned armor lately, allowing six or more earned runs in three of his previous six outings. So much of what makes Perez “successful” is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 21.9% strikeout rate, 55.1% groundball rate, and 24.4% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something Perez will have an impossible time relying on Tuesday night as the Houston Astros have exactly zero lefties in their lineup this evening. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters, posting just a 12.4% strikeout rate in 114.1 innings pitched this season while surrendering hard contact 37.1% of the time, leading to a lofty .364 wOBA and 1.34 HR/9 allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this Astros lineup, as many of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with George Springer (167 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .278 ISO), Alex Bregman (161 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .235 ISO), and Jose Altuve (155 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .223 ISO) decisively leading the way for this Houston squad. On top of that trio, virtually any righty cracking the Astros order is more than viable on this slate with Marwin Gonzalez (108 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .204 ISO vs LHP), Jake Marisnick (119 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .209 ISO vs LHP), and Evan Gattis (.232 ISO vs LHP) being the other definitive players to target, while Yulieski Gurriel is better reserved as a last resort option to round out a Houston stack in large-field tournaments considering his overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Marisnick, Evan Gattis, Martin Perez
It's Chris Sale's slate on Tuesday night according to current ownership projections
On a rain battered slate, where many of the teams with top projected run lines have major flaws, it’s not much of a surprise that projections expect ownership to spread out tonight. Currently, only Charlie Blackmon reaches 15% on DraftKings with nobody above that on either site and Nolan Arenado the only one of four FanDuel bats projected that highly not batting leadoff tonight. As far as pitching goes, it’s not even close with only Chris Sale projected above 10% on FanDuel. The need for a cheaper secondary pitcher on DraftKings makes Luke Weaver potentially a very popular pick along with Matt Moore. Moore hasn’t allowed more than two runs in three straight starts and is in a great spot in San Diego, but continues to allow some of the hardest contact on the board and has just 10 strikeouts against six walks over his last two starts, hosting Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luke Weaver, Matt Moore, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado Two down, still some concern for Baltimore and Washington in tonight's forecast
With two games already down, there’s still some concern for the Miami Washington and Seattle Baltimore games, both graded ORANGE by Kevin in his evening forecast. It should be easy enough to fade pitching in that game with Dylan Bundy the only legitimate choice of the four. Kevin believes there’s a chance both spots can wait it out, but it depends on how much damage has already been done to the field. With Seattle coming across the country to Baltimore, that might be the more difficult one to make up, so perhaps there’s an extra effort made there. Even if they do play, conditions are not offensively friend with strong winds blowing in from center in both locations. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to catch Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat for updates until lock.
LHBs have a 37.7 Hard% against Sal Romano; cheap Mets LHBs could provide path to Sale
The Mets may be down, well, an entire lineup at this point, but they can still provide some value to players paying up for pitching (specifically Chris Sale) tonight. While RHBs have a .397 wOBA against Sal Romano vs just a .320 wOBA for RHBs, RHBs have a 58 GB% and 31.8 Hard% against a 41.3 GB% and 37.7 Hard% for LHBs. Batters from either side have a double digit walk rate. He’s had a hard hit rate above 35% overall in three of his last four starts. The Mets only have four LHBs in their lineup, but all are among the first six batters in the lineup and all are less than $3K on FanDuel with only Asdrubal Cabrera reaching $4K on DraftKings. Brandon Nimmo is up to a 136 wRC+ and 43.2 Hard% vs RHP this year. Jose Reyes has a 212 wRC+ since coming off the DL this week. Asdrubal Cabrera has a 42.9 Hard% over the last seven days. Dominic Smith has a .222 ISO vs RHP this year and a 50% hard hit rate over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jose Reyes, Dominic Smith, Chris Sale, Sal Romano, Asdrubal Cabrera Braves @ Phillies postponed due to rain
The Braves and Phillies have been rained out. They will play a double header tomorrow.
As reported by: Ryan Lawrence James Shields has a 25.8 K% last 30 days, 13.8 Hard% last two starts
This may be daily fantasy blasphemy, but an all out assault on James Shields does not look very appealing tonight despite Minnesota’s 5.35 implied run line that’s fourth highest on the board. From an offensive perspective, consider the Twins’ team 17.2 K-BB% and 21.8 Hard% over the last week. Looking at tonight’s confirmed lineup, eight of nine batters have either a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP or a wRC+ above 190 overall over the last seven days. However, only Kenny Vargas (103 wRC+) and Max Kepler (31 wRC+) have a hard hit rate above 25% over the last week. Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco all have a 190+ wRC+ with a hard hit rate below 25% over the last week. Then there’s Shields himself. Over the last month (25.8 K%), five starts, he’s not had a below average SwStr% in a single start and has been at or above 12% in each of his last three starts. He’s still allowed eight HRs over this span with a 37.8 GB%, but with road starts in Texas and Boston and a power friendly home environment. His hard hit rate is just 13.8% over his last two starts, dropping his Barrels/BBE rate into single digits for the season. His 87.6 mph aEV is now just 10th highest on the board, near Chad Kuhl and Luis Perdomo. Perhaps Chad Kuhl would make a better target tonight. The Cubs are projected for 4.76 runs, but with Kris Bryant the only RHB among the first seven in the lineup. LHBs have a .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% against Kuhl this season.
Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl, Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Kennys Vargas, Max Kepler